With a little over a week to go until Spring Training, hope springs eternal, and for some very patient fan bases, long post season droughts appear ready to go by the wayside. Based on FanGraphs projections, the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, and, yes, the Chicago Cubs should all be in contention for the postseason. Here’s a quick glance at the projected standings come October.
National League East
Team
Wins
Losses
Games Behind
Washington Nationals
91
71
Florida Marlins
81
81
10
New York Mets
78
84
13
Atlanta Braves
71
91
20
Philadelphia Phillies
68
94
23
The Washington Nationals, with the addition of Max Scherzer to an already loaded starting rotation, look to be the best team in baseball. That, coupled with an extraordinarily weak division, makes the Nationals locks to make the playoffs.
The Florida Marlins and the New York Mets are young and talented and headed in the right direction. A few breaks here and there could see either team vie for a wild card.
The Atlanta Braves are in full rebuilding mode, while the Philadelphia Phillies are old, not very talented, and headed to the worst record in baseball in 2015.
Look for Cole Hamels to be on the move to a contender sometime in June, if not earlier. And, Cliff Lee could follow if he appears healthy in the first half.
National League Central
Team
Wins
Losses
Games Behind
St. Louis Cardinals
86
76
Pittsburgh Pirates
85
77
1
Chicago Cubs
84
78
2
Milwaukee Brewers
77
85
9
Cincinnati Reds
76
86
10
The St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Chicago Cubs should all be contenders with the order in the standings skewing to the Cardinals mostly on the basis of experience.
If young Cubs phonemes like SS Javier Baez, 3B Kris Bryant, and OF Jorge Soler produce at the big league level sooner rather than later, the long anticipated Theo Epstein engineered Cub dynasty could begin a year ahead of schedule.
National League West
Team
Wins
Losses
Games Behind
LA Dodgers
91
71
San Francisco Giants
83
79
8
San Diego Padres
80
82
11
Colorado Rockies
76
86
15
Arizona Diamondbacks
74
88
17
In the offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers let SS Hanley Ramirez walk and dealt OF Matt Kemp to the San Diego Padres, opening the door for top prospects SS Corey Seager (Kyle Seager’s little brother) and OF Joc Pederson. Pederson should start the season in center, while Seager’s promotion to the bigs may come after the break. But, the name of the game in LA is pitching and the Dodgers rotation, anchored by Cy Young / MVP Clayton Kershaw, should be second in all of baseball behind only the Nationals.
These projections do not reflect the San Diego Padres signing of P James Shields, but do take into account the addition of Matt Kemp, OF Wil Myers, and OF Justin Upton. While it’s unlikely Shields alone would add the four extra wins necessary in these projections to crack the playoffs, the Padres are definitely a team to watch in 2015.
American League East
Team
Wins
Losses
Games Behind
Boston Red Sox
88
74
Toronto Blue Jays
84
78
4
Tampa Rays
83
79
5
New York Yankees
83
79
5
Baltimore Orioles
79
83
9
2012 – Last Place. 2013 – World Series Champions. 2014 – Last Place. 2015 – ??? The Boston Red Sox loaded up in free agency by signing Hanley Ramirez, presumably to play left field, and 3B Pablo Sandoval and are already loaded with prospects like Mookie Betts and Cuban defector Rusney Castillo, both of whom can’t play the OF if Shane Victorino returns healthy. The wealth of prospects is likely to be leveraged around the trade deadline to acquire a front of the line starting pitcher, perhaps Cole Hamels or Cliff Lee or both.
With a projected 84 wins, the Toronto Blue Jays should be in the mix, fighting for a really wild wild card with the Cleveland Indians, Oakland A’s, and LA Angels.
American League Central
Team
Wins
Losses
Games Behind
Detroit Tigers
85
77
Cleveland Indians
84
78
1
Kansas City Royals
81
81
4
Chicago White Sox
78
84
7
Minnesota Twins
75
87
10
With the AL Central race being the second most contested behind the NL Central, the knee injury to Detroit Tigers DH Victor Martinez could tip the balance to the Cleveland Indians, who finished just four games behind eventual World Series team, the Kansas City Royals.
Some regression in Kansas City is expected to go along with the loss of James Shields, placing the Royals just out of the wild card hunt in 2015
American League West
Team
Wins
Losses
Games Behind
Seattle Mariners
89
73
Oakland A’s
84
78
5
LA Angels
84
78
5
Texas Rangers
78
84
11
Houston Astros
77
85
12
One year after missing the playoffs by a single game, the Seattle Mariners are projected to have the best record in the American League in 2015 and beat out both the A’s and the Angels for the AL West crown. The addition of DH Nelson Cruz and the platoon OF of Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano should add some much needed punch to the M’s offense, while the pitching looks to be just as solid, if not more so, depending on the continued emergence of Tajjuan Walker.
The A’s, coming off their monumental collapse in 2014, have taken a step back, but should contend with the Angels for the wildcard.
The Houston Astros, who, like the Cubs, have a slew of high upside prospects, led by SS Carlos Corea, , could play the spoiler down the stretch in the second half.