The Portland Trail Blazers had maybe the most surprising team in the NBA last season, as they made the leap from lottery afterthought to spending a majority of the season in a heated battle atop the Western Conference standings. While they eventually slipped to 5th place, their upset victory over the Houston Rockets in Round 1 of the playoffs announced to the world that the Blazers were more than just a flash in the pan who got off to a hot start. They were ready to place their name amongst the elite in the NBA.
However, when actually matched up against said elite teams, such as their 2nd round opponent, the NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs, that notion was quickly thwarted. After a quick 5 game exit, you could just about hear Tim Duncan mumble, “Not quite yet, kiddos,” to the young upstart squad from the Northwest.
While the Rockets series showed a glimpse of Portland’s immense potential, the Spurs gave them an equal dosage of reality and perspective. This Blazer team made some major strides to go from a 33-win afterthought to a 54-win team advancing to the 2nd Round in one of the most loaded Western Conferences in recent memory. Yet, as the Spurs showed, they have a long way to go to reach true contender status.
That, of course, is the hard part. With limited roster flexibility, virtually zero cap room, and a grand total of zero draft picks, the Blazers options to improve their roster this summer were limited to say the least. A couple of solid, if underwhelming, free agent signings in Chris Kaman and Steve Blake helped add some veteran stability to what was arguably (if you’re being generous) the worst bench in the NBA last season. Typically, that would be a nice start to the offseason, however, when Mo Williams, the team’s do-everything (out of necessity) 6th man decided to move on to greener ($$$) pastures in Minnesota, the Blazers lost their only “reliable” bench player.
Even if you are one of those Blazer fans who think that the loss of Mo Williams, Mo Problems was addition by subtraction, you’d still probably be hard pressed to consider the Kaman and Blake signings as one of Neil Olsheys fabled “needle movers.” At this point, it’s obvious that, if the 2014-15 Blazers want to make that leap to true contender status, they were going to have to do it from within.
That’s a lot to ask of this young roster, and is typically a risky bet to make in the high-stakes, multi-million dollar world of the NBA. However, with a bevy of guys heading into their 2nd and 3rd seasons, and most of the rest of the roster still on the good side of 30, it’s not an inconceivable expectation.
So, without further ado, let’s get to it, countdown style, because, who doesn’t love a countdown?
5. Will Barton
The first guy up is the guy on most every Blazer fan’s radar to make that jump into the rotation and be the spark plug off the bench this season, The People’s Champ, Will “The Thrill” Barton. As one of the lone bright spots of the round 2 bludgeoning at the hands of the Spurs, Barton showed a propensity for getting his hands on loose balls, getting out in open space, and just generally making things happen. This is the kind of player that is extremely hard to prepare for because, as an opponent, you have absolutely no idea what he’s going to do. Heck, Terry Stotts has no idea what he is going to do either. He could go off for 15 points in 6 minutes, or he could force a bevy of bad shots and head scratching passes. That’s what makes Barton both delightfully fun to watch and downright infuriating on a moment to moment basis.
In this regard, he’s the perfect replacement for Mo Williams. While Steve Blake is the one technically taking Mo’s backup PG duties (although, we did see some of Barton at PG during Summer League, so keep an eye on that), his game couldn’t be more different than that of Mo’s. The same scorching hot/ice cold unpredictability that made Blazer fans pull out most of their hair by midseason is exactly what also frustrated opposing coaches and teams. If you weren’t careful, Mo Williams was fully capable of rattling off 12 points before you know it, and all of a sudden, the much maligned Blazer bench just extended the lead on you. Because of that, it was imperative that opposing defenses always kept an eye on Mo.
This type of play describes Will Barton to a T. If he can continue to improve on his decision making, cut down on turnovers, and consistently be a threat from 3 (all of which he showed improvement on late in last season and in Summer League), then Barton could be in line for a big jump in minutes. With his chaotic action, defenses will have to keep a keen eye on him at all times, otherwise he’s liable to sneak back door for an alley-oop, grab an errant rebound and put back, or slash to the hoop for an acrobatic finish. Just that threat should be enough to open up some space for Kaman in the post, and/or create some open looks for Blake from 3, and thus maximizing the Blazers offseason moves.
If Barton can become a consistent presence off the bench, it’ll go a long way to solving the Blazer bench woes and allowing for the starters to stay well rested throughout the season and heading into the playoffs.
4. Thomas Robinson
To me, Thomas Robinson is basically the big-man version of Will Barton. Both have exceptional athleticism, endless energy and the ability to make the “WOW!” plays on a fairly regular basis. Also, just like Barton, Robinson has the tendency to seemingly follow every “WOW!” play with the much less desirable “HUH?” move. One minute he looks like the second-coming of Brian Grant (minus the dreads … although … think about it, T-Rob!), gobbling up every rebound and wreaking havoc on both ends of the floor, and the next he’s throwing up wild spinning “lay-ups” which I think should be heretofore termed “throw-ups” due to the balls action towards the rim being much closer to a throw than a lay, as well as the queasy sensation I feel every time I watch a point blank scoring opportunity go to waste.
However, as the season wore on, it seemed we saw a lot more lay-ups than throw-ups, and even a little confidence in his mid-range jumper, which looks surprisingly decent. In Summer League, we continued to see this trend, and with it the hope that Robinson is finding his groove as an energy guy off the bench who focuses on rebounds, put backs, some weakside defense and the ability to knock down an open jumper if the defense is giving it to him. That’s exactly the kind of player that the Blazers need coming off the bench in the front-court.
While Kaman will be the offensive focal point of the 2nd unit in the post, his game is, and always will be, very Earth-based. He has the size and veteran savvy to play against most backup bigs, but, the Blazers are likely going to need someone else to match up against the more athletic guys, as well as the stretch 4’s and 5’s that are becoming all the rage around the league. Like Barton, if Robinson can minimize some of his mistakes and still keep that manic ball-of-energy style that has caused him to be a fan favorite, he could end up being a perfect complement to Kaman, and help elevate the previously moribund Blazer bench to levels heretofore thought unachievable: respectable. Crazy to think of, huh?
3. CJ McCollum
While Will Barton will likely be counted on to provide some much needed unpredictability and sizzle to the Blazer bench, CJ McCollum will likely be asked to provide the steadiness. That’s a lot to ask for a guy who is coming off an up-and-down rookie season and who hasn’t really shown he can be stay healthy for a full year, let alone be a consistent contributor. And, even when he was healthy last year, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire (5.3ppg on 42% from the floor in 38 games).
However, considering his circumstances, I think it’s fair to take those stats with a huge grain of salt. Not only was CJ making that tricky transition from mid-major college ball to the pinnacle of the sport, he was doing so after missing nearly his entire senior season due to injury. He then proceeded to get a brief chance to knock the rust off in the rag-tag glorified rat ball that is NBA Summer League, followed by a few weeks of training camp before again being sidelined with an injury and missing the first 2 months of the season.
If that wasn’t bad enough for CJ, the Blazers jumped out to a completely shocking 26-9 start without him, and instead of being a borderline playoff team looking to develop the young guys, they were surprising everyone and battling the likes of San Antonio and Oklahoma City for the #1 overall seed in the West. Suddenly the idea of force feeding minutes to your rookie just wasn’t going to happen. Plus, after missing most of training camp, and with practice time during the season being limited, he just didn’t have time to mesh with his teammates as much as one would like before tossing a rookie into the rotation. Throw in the usual difficulties for rookies, like an 82-game season, constant travel, and the aforementioned jump in competition, and you have yourselves the makings of a lost season.
Yet, still, CJ was able to show some of what he can do. The shots may not have always dropped, but, he did display some NBA-level craftiness in getting a lot of those looks. That, combined with his very respectable shooting from 3-point range (37.5%, 2nd among rookies who shot 50 or more 3pt shots) shows me that his much touted scoring ability coming into the league is legit.
In fact, while much of his season could be classified as forgettable, he did have a couple nice games, including a 4 game stretch in mid-February where he averaged 13.5ppg on 54% shooting (10-17 from 3!) against the Pacers, Timberwolves, Thunder and Clippers, with 3 of the 4 being on the road. That’s a nice run against a 3 of the best teams in the league (and, well, the T-Wolves).
Now, he did fade down the stretch, getting pretty much only garbage minutes the last month of the season, but, for a player who never really had the chance to work his way into shape in training camp, and had gone almost 2 years since playing even 30 games in a season, it’s easy to see why he’d run smack into that rookie wall.
Still, it’s clear to me that CJ has the capabilities to be that dynamic bench scorer from the guard position that the Blazers sorely need with the departure of Mo Williams. If he can work himself into the rotation, and stay healthy (his biggest IF at this point, to me), then I think he has the ability to be that other wing scorer that the Blazers desperately need if they plan on keeping Lillard’s minutes under 40 per game. On top of that, while I’m not sure if he has the ballhandling ability to be a full-time PG, I think McCollum is creative enough with the ball in his hands that he should be able to initiate some offense on his own, allowing Lillard to log some of that key “rest time” at the SG position. But, more than anything, just having someone who can pick up the offensive slack when the starters struggle, or if, god forbid, either of the Blazers All-Stars miss any time due to injury, could help take the already potent Blazers offense from merely ‘very good’ to ‘elite’. And, if the Blazers continue to play defense like they did last year (middling, at best), then boosting their offense up to elite status is going to be imperative if they want to compete for that Western Conference (and, eventually NBA) crown.
2. Nic Batum
As much as having a deep, reliable bench is essential to deep playoff runs (just ask the defending champion Spurs), you can still only have 5 guys on the court at any given time, so, more often than not, championships are decided by the lineup you trot out there at the end of games. For the Blazers, that will almost always contain one of the more debated (an important) players on the team: Nic Batum.
Batum is the Swiss Army Knife of the Blazers roster. The guy who makes everyone else’s jobs easier, and who can step in and fill just about any role you ask of him. Over the years, he has shown the ability to be a plus player in just about every facet of the game. In fact, last season alone he had 19 games with 18 or more points, 31 with 8 or more rebounds, 20 with 7 or more assists, 24 with 3 or more 3 pointers made, 13 with 2 or more blocks, and 18 with 2 or more steals. And, in 52 of the games, he reached at least 2 of these thresholds (all of which are quite good on their own). That’s a player who is contributing across multiple facets of the game on a regular basis, and who can be called upon to step up when anyone from Lillard to Lopez is out of the lineup or having an off night.
Yet, ironically, it’s this same ability to excel in all facets of the game that seems to frustrate Blazer fans so much when it comes to Nic Batum. Because, while Blazer fans all know that he CAN do any and all of these things on any given night, nary is the fan who can be certain that he WILL. He’s like the kid in school who KNOWS he’s smarter than everyone else, and therefor doesn’t feel the need to prove it night in and night out on every little homework assignment, or even show up to every class. He’s content in cramming the night before to get that A+ on the tests, and then showing up to just enough classes and doing just enough homework to get a B-. All the while, his teachers are pulling their hair out in frustration, not because he’s the worst student, but, because he has the potential to be the best, yet he insists on being just another kid with a B average.
Based on his physical abilities and flashes of brilliance, Batum should be the no-brainer 3rd scoring option on this team, as well as the guy who walks out on to the court right before tip and points right at the other team’s best scorer, points at him and says, “He’s mine.” Instead, Batum has ceded both of those roles to Wesley Matthews, a nice player in his own right, but, one who lacks the physical tools that Batum possess. Nic, seemingly, is perfectly content taking a backseat to just about everybody, only stepping up when absolutely necessary, or when a hot start to the night gets his attention.
If the Blazers are to transform into a legitimate championship team, they need Nic Batum to WANT to be their 3rd star. When he gets the ball, he shouldn’t be thinking, “OK, how am I going to set up Dame and LMA …,” he should be thinking, “I’m going to make something happen. Now.” When the team huddles up with 6 seconds to go in the 4th, the Blazers up 1 and Wes says, “I’ll guard LeBron,” Batum needs to look the coach right in the eye with steely confidence and definitively state, “No. I got him. He’s mine.” And, he needs to say it in a way that everyone on the team can think to themselves, “OK, cool, Nic’s got him … what do WE have to do to help?” and not give a second thought to that all-critical matchup.
While many argue that Batum has lacked consistency over the years, I’d argue that he’s been one of the few who consistently contributes to the game each and every night. Even in those few games where he didn’t excel on the stat sheet, he’s always impacting games for the better, something a lot of players struggle to do when their shots are off, or rebounds just aren’t bouncing their way.
No, what Batum has lacked is that intense determination to impart his will on the game. He needs to take the bull by the horns and realize that while Aldridge and Lillard might be the All-Stars, Nic’s been here as long as anybody and it’s just as much his team as theirs. If he thinks he can take a guy off the dribble every time down the court, do it. Don’t worry about LaMarcus, he’ll get his. If Nic gets the ball in a spot where he knows he can hit the shot, pull the trigger. Lillard would likely welcome the chance to take a few possessions off.
What I want to see from Batum is that terrifying look in his eye that he had playing for his French national team, right before he took a swipe at Juan Carlos Navarro and caught him in his, umm … Spanish fly. No, I don’t want him to run around the court like a homicidal maniac, taking swipes at players, I’m simply talking about getting in that determined state of mind where he sets out to do something and nothing will get in his way of accomplishing it. Heck, it doesn’t even have to always be the same thing. With the talent on this team, he can still occasionally be the Swiss Army Knife, ready to bail the team out in a pinch. However, if he were to assert himself on both ends of the floor, early and often, then we’ll see this team get in a lot less pinches during the regular season, and maybe a few extra in the postseason.
1. Damian Lillard
It’s often said that the hardest jump to make as an NBA player is from fringe All-Star to unquestioned Superstar. Some might argue that it’s a matter of semantics, and that the only difference is the amount of commercials one has, or the amount of airtime ESPN dedicates to you. Others might say that LaMarcus Aldridge is already a superstar, and we just need Dame to be a perennial All-Star for him to team up with.
Well, I’ll have to respectfully disagree with those people. There are, maybe 4 or 5 superstars in the league at any given point. If that. These are the kinds of guys who you don’t just expect to take over games, you are flat out shocked when they don’t.
Right now, the only guys I’d put on this level are LeBron, Durant and Chris Paul, with CP3 holding on for dear life with that bum shoulder of his (I could probably be convinced to put Carmelo in the conversation, too, but, it’s hard to consider a player a legit superstar when they can’t even drag their team to the playoffs in the woeful Eastern Conference). Behind them, you have a whole pack of guys like Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook, Paul George, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love, Steph Curry, Tony Parker, etc. who are all fighting to move into that group (And, of course, you also have guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan, and Kobe Bryant, who USED to be superstars, but, simply can’t bring it night after night anymore).
Regardless of how you categorize, however, these are the kinds of players that are needed to win rings. With only a small handful of exceptions, each and every team who has won a championship has had a legitimate superstar leading the way. LaMarcus may be on the cusp, but, at 29, it’s hard to imagine his game transforming too much more beyond where it is today. Maybe I’m selling him short (as has seemingly been the case throughout his whole career), but, if the Blazers are going to get that elite level superstar, it’s probably going to have to be Lillard.
Lillard is currently just now working his way into that 2nd group. He just made his 1st All-Star team, his 1st All-NBA team, he’s made the clutch shots in the playoffs, and now he even has the national ad campaign to boot. It’s all right there in front of him for the taking.
So, what does he have to do to get to that mythical “superstar” level? I’m glad you asked!
First thing Dame needs to work on and improve at is obvious: defense. I’d argue that he’s already a better defender than his reputation would lead you to believe (although, given his reputation, that’s not exactly tough to do), so, he’s not exactly a lost cause on this end of the court.
He has the quickness and the strength to stay with all but the fastest players in the league, and given the NBA’s current hand-check rules (aka “DON’T!”), that’s about the best you can ask for. I think you could see a marked improvement in this aspect of his game over the course of the season, which leads me to think that as long as the Blazers give him enough help on the offensive end of the floor to allow him to dedicate SOME energy on defense, that he should be ok in this department.
That being said, his on-ball defense still leaves a lot to be desired, especially when it comes to navigating the oldest and most basic of basketball plays, the pick-and-roll, and in particular, fighting through screens. This is one of those things that typically players learn as they get older, and I have no doubt that Lillard has the capacity to improve dramatically over the next few years. It’s all about reading the angles of the screen, predicting the timing, and then using the scouting report to figure out what the ball-handler WANTS you to do (go over, go under, or switch) and then fight, scrap and claw your way to do the exact opposite. The key to it all is that last part. You have to truly WANT to fight through that screen. And, if there’s one thing we know about Damian at this point is that he WANTS it. All of it.
The other area on defense where Lillard could stand to improve is creating turnovers. Lillard ranked 92nd in the NBA among GUARDS last year in steals per game with a measly 0.7. That’s behind guys like Ronnie Price and Derek Fisher, who average 12 and 17 mpg respectively. That’s simply not going to cut it. Look at the other All-Star level PGs that he’s competing with to be a superstar: Chris Paul (2.5 spg), Russell Westbrook (1.9 spg), John Wall (1,8 spg), Steph Curry (1.6 spg), Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry (all at 1.5 spg). They are all among the top 20 among guards in creating turnovers, and it’s a big reason why they are all considered elite. Even though guys like Curry and Irving are not considered plus-defenders individually, they still manage to make an impact on that end. Lillard needs to have a similar affect for the Blazers, even if he never becomes an elite defender like the Pauls, Westbrooks and Walls of the world.
Now, if he can shore that up and become at least respectable on the defensive end, he’ll be able to firmly plant himself in the 2nd tier of stars. That’s great and all, yet, in my opinion, it’s still not enough to make this Blazer team truly elite, because, as great as Lillard is on the offensive end, he still has some work to be done on that end of the court, too.
Right now, he relies heavily on his outside shot to score, and he rarely attacks the paint until he starts knocking down shots and drawing the defense out beyond the 3 point line. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, considering a lot of the offense is designed around getting LaMarcus space inside to go to work. However, Lillard needs to improve his shot making abilities once he takes that first step to blow by his defender.
Over the past year, it’s been clear that he’s started to work on a decent little floater that he can get off over big guys who close out on him, but, he needs to continue to develop that mid-range game. One way to do that is the floater, or similar shots that can be made on the move, yet not right at the rim. The other way is to demonstrate that you can are consistently willing and (more importantly) able to get to the rim and score, either by making shots or drawing fouls. This will force rim protectors to be scared to come out too far, thus ceding the 10-15 foot jumpers that guys like Lillard could hit in their sleep.
However, finishing at the rim has been a bit of a crap shoot for Lillard since he joined the NBA. He’s show the quickness and the athleticism to get to the rim, but, hasn’t always had the best success finishing for a variety of reasons. Sometimes he’s simply struggled to get shots to consistently drop, other times he gets rejected at the rim by the waiting shot blockers, and most of the time he’s doing so without drawing fouls.
A lot of his issues seem to come down to simple decision making, in that he often seems to struggle with deciding when to go for a dunk, when to try to draw a foul and when to shoot a floater. While that may be a bit troubling, I tend to think it’s simply a situation where he’s learning how to play when he’s not the biggest, baddest, most athletic guy on the court, as he has no doubt been at just about every level he’s played at up until his rookie year. Remember, as mature as he is, he’s still only played 2 years in the league. He’s still figuring out how to play in this league. In fact, both seasons his FG% at the rim climbed as the season progressed, which is a good sign that he’s learning as he goes.
Once he is able to produce more easy points in the form of dunks, layups and free throws, we should see an overall improvement in Dame’s offensive efficiency, which will catapult him from great offensive player, to elite. With this comes the last thing that each and every superstar needs to round out his game: respect. Respect from the league, from the players, the coaches, and, yes, even the refs. Because, once someone EXPECTS you to win, you’re half way there. It becomes almost subconscious, for both sides. You expect to win, and they expect you to beat them. THAT is when you know you’ve reached superstardom.
As I said, it’s a tough journey, but, from what we’ve seen from Dame so far, he has that perfect no-nonsense demeanor and the bordering on psychotic will to win that it takes to catapult yourself to the highest level. And, if he can make that largest of leaps, there is no doubt in my mind that the Blazers will not only contend for a championship, but win one.