Every year, as the calendar flips to April and the playoffs emerge on the horizon, fans and media alike start eyeballing the standings with a little extra fervor. Whether it’s battling for home court advantage or daydreaming about potential first round matchups, following the standings can be just as entertaining as the games itself this time of year.
With margins razor thin between teams seeded 2 through 6 out West this year (a measly 0.5 game separating them as of this morning), there are plenty of combinations of first round matchups still at play. That leaves each team and their fans to break down each potential matchup and debate which one might prove most favorable.
Typically, people gravitate towards the season series’ to see where their team has fared the best, and thus, logically, would be most likely to emerge victorious. At the same time, as many a team has found out, the playoffs are a far different animal than the regular season. Often the best on paper matchups don’t always turn out that way when the bright lights of the playoffs turn on.
Think back just a few years ago, and Portland Trail Blazers fans were hoping against hope for what everyone thought was a winnable first round matchup with a Dallas Mavericks team against who the team had previously experienced some success. Fast forward a couple weeks, and the Blazers were sitting at home, having been eliminated in 6 games, while the Mavericks were on their way to their team’s first NBA Championship.
Or, even just last year. After winning the season series 3 games to 1 against the San Antonio Spurs, and generally playing them well in previous sessions, many fans thought they would be a favorable 2nd round matchup. Some even went as far as to openly root for the Spurs in their Game 7 matchup against the Mavericks, even if it meant playing 4 of 7 games on the road.
Little did they know, the Spurs were just hitting their stride on the way to one of the more dominating championship runs in recent memory. Making quick work of a young Blazer team was but just a small bump in the road to the Promised Land.
All this to say: Be careful what you wish for.
With all that in mind, I still feel like tempting fate a bit by breaking down and ranking the four potential playoff matchups for the Blazers from least to most favorable. I’m doing this knowing full well that there are no good matchups out West, as every single team poses uniquely terrifying problems for the now even more hobbled Blazers. But, that’s also what makes this fun. So, let’s just get to it!
San Antonio Spurs
Current Playoff Seed: 6
Season Series: 3-1, Portland
Don’t let the season series record fool you, this is the worst case scenario. Do I even need to elaborate?
Fine. Let’s start with the obvious: they’re the defending NBA champions. That, in and of itself, should be enough to scare you away. They’re also on an absolute tear right now, winning 20 of last their last 23 games. Oh, and for good measure, they were the team who ran Portland out of the proverbial building just last season.
At this point, it’s not just a cliché thing to say about the defending champs, it’s a bona fide fact: the Regular Season Spurs have virtually nothing in common with the Playoff Spurs. They spend all season just waiting for playoff time to roll around, only really trying in the season’s final couple weeks. Ya know, just to break a little bit of a sweat before the start of the real season.
Sure, maybe the Blazers were a little overconfident heading into the series last year, with the big opening round win over the Rockets and having played the Spurs so well in the regular season. But, you’d think that would only account for the first game, maybe two. In reality, that series was about as lopsided a 5-game series as you’ll ever see. It almost seemed like the Spurs let the Blazers win Game 3 just because they felt bad, and figured they’d let for the plucky little Blazers have one.
At the end of the day, this is a Spurs team that knows how to save themselves for the playoffs. And, based on last years’ run, combined with the way they’ve played down the stretch this season, you’d be absolutely crazy to put this Spurs team anywhere but the bottom of your playoff wish list.
Memphis Grizzlies
Current Playoff Seed: 2
Season Series: 4-0, Memphis
If you’re basing your preference entirely on the way regular season matchups have gone, the Memphis Grizzlies would be the very last team the Blazers want to see standing across from them when the ball goes up to start the 2015 NBA Playoffs. Not only are they the only team in the league to beat the Blazers four times this year, but, none of the four were particularly close.
A big reason for that is the combo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol in the post is a nightmare for what has become an increasingly banged up Blazer front line. While Aldridge and Lopez can hang with any PF/C combo in the league, it’s undeniable how much trouble the rough and tumble Grizzlies frontcourt duo give the Blazers.
That hit ‘em early and hit ‘em often approach applies to the Grizzlies wing players as well, with top-notch defenders like Tony Allen, Jeff Green and Mike Conley all more than capable of disrupting the Blazers free-flowing offense. And, while the Blazers defense has improved by leaps and bounds this season, it’s going to be tough to win a seven-game series if they can’t get their offense going.
On the flip side, however, Memphis has been struggling as of late, sporting a pedestrian 12-11 down the stretch run of the season. It could be high time to catch them while their confidence is waning just a bit. And, while one of those 12 wins was against these very same Blazers, you’d still much rather have your opponent sputtering along heading into Game 1, than going humming along like a finely tuned machine.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current Playoff Seed: 5
Season Series: 3-1, Los Angeles
Sit down, Blazer fans. This might be tough to hear, but, it’s time to take off the kid gloves and get a little real with you. Chris Paul absolutely owns the Portland Trail Blazers. He doesn’t just play well against them, he absolutely dominates them without even a hint of mercy or regard for your mental well-being. He virtually does whatever he wants out there against the Blazers, and seems to barely even break a sweat in the process. Suffice to say, no one wants to see seven straight games of that, least of all Damian Lillard.
That being said, while the Clippers may have won the season series, each game was closely contested and the series could have just as easily been 3-1 Portland as it was 3-1 in favor of the Clippers. There certainly wasn’t anything to suggest that the Blazers would be doomed with this matchup. In fact, far from it.
While CP3 is inarguably the best point guard in the NBA over the past decade, his playoff success has been spotty at best. With all he’s accomplished in this league, he’s only managed to make it out of the first round of the playoffs twice, and has never advanced beyond there. I might not count on that to hold up for his entire career, but, it does make me feel a little better knowing that history is on your side heading into a potential playoff series.
Plus, with the way this Clippers team is constantly getting emotionally involved with the refs, they’re always seemingly on the verge of a mental meltdown. If they let even one game slip away because they were focused more on the referees than their opponent, that could be a death knell in a tight series. With every potential matchup looking like it should go seven games, it’s often the little things like this that can give your opponent just enough of an advantage to sneak on through to the next round.
Houston Rockets
Current Playoff Seed: 3
Season Series: 2-1, Portland
Houston, my old friend. We (theoretically) meet again.
This matchup is both terrifying and intriguing at the same time. While the Blazers were able to dispatch the Rockets in 6 games just last season, it was far from easy. Every game was a white-knuckle affair (to say the least), and with a couple bounces the other way, it’s not ridiculous to say that the Rockets could have just as easily pulled off the 4 game sweep.
On top of that, as good as James Harden was last year, he’s taken it to an entirely new level this season in leading a mostly Dwight Howard-less Rockets team back towards the top of the Western Conference standings and placing himself firmly in contention or the NBA MVP award. Meanwhile the guy who got the bulk of the minutes opposite Harden last season, Wesley Matthews, out for the remainder of the season with a torn Achilles tendon, it’s hard to predict the Blazers being able to keep Harden in check two seasons in a row.
Still, the Blazers did a magnificent job against the bearded one last season, and it wasn’t all because of Matthews individual efforts. Terry Stotts devised a fantastic game plan to limit Harden’s effectiveness, and the entire team executed it to near perfection. Plus, as great as he’s been this season, it’s hard to deny that Harden’s penchant for (some might say reliance on) getting to the free throw line is a dangerous thing to count on come playoff time, when the refs tend to be a bit more judicious with their whistles than during the regular season.
On top of that, recent season-ending injuries to starting point guard Patrick Beverley and starting center/forward Donatas Montiejunas don’t help their chances either. While getting Dwight Howard back in the lineup will definitely help mitigate those losses, it also means a potentially dramatic change for an offense that has been humming along without him for a majority of the season. The Rockets have had a remarkable season playing without a discernable post presence, and we all know that Dwight won’t take kindly to simply taking over Montiejunas’ limited role on the offensive end.
And, it’s that tiniest bit of uncertainty that just might make the Rockets the most favorable of brutal list of potential playoff matchups for the Blazers. Of course, Houston thought the same thing last year when they got matched up with Portland, once again showing that, when it comes to the NBA Playoffs, be careful what you ask for.