Every NBA week is eventful in its own way, but for the Portland Trail Blazers, it seemed doubly so. You could pack a month’s worth of drama and worry into the last six days in Rip City: LaMarcus Aldridge’s torn left thumb ligament, Nicolas Batum getting shut down to heal that balky right wrist, the continued absences of Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland as injured players joined them on the shelf.
It all peaked Saturday morning, when Aldridge announced he would forego surgery for now, and try to play with basically one and a half hands. Surgery would sideline him for up to eight weeks, until the end of March at the latest.
Aldridge rightly recognized that if he was on the shelf that long, the Blazers would stand a decent chance of missing the playoffs, despite the .730 pace they set in the season’s first half. Yes, the Western Conference is that tough.
After that crushing loss to the Boston Celtics on Thursday, on a last-second shot by Evan Turner, morale was at its lowest ever since Damian Lillard arrived. They had lost their starting center, their starting small forward, and their superstar power forward who–WHOOOAAATTT IS HE PLAYING TONIGHT!? That was my reaction when I heard the news, and it was probably echoed all over the NBA world.
The reactions of everybody at the game Saturday against the Wizards when Aldridge was introduced, when he went on a personal run of scoring to keep Portland afloat in the first quarter, and when he exited the game after putting up 26 points and nine rebounds were of pure appreciation, appreciation of a dude who hitched up his big boy pants and saved the Blazers’ season.
Although Aldridge is an athlete in the prime of his life, playing basketball with a torn thumb had to hurt like hell, even with painkillers and a brace. Do me a favor, and find the spot on your left thumb just under your second knuckle, near where your thumb connects to the rest of your hand. Feel that lump of sinew there? That’s what he tore last week.
I couldn’t do either of my jobs if I got hurt like that, and handling a basketball would be out of the question.
Early in his career, people called Aldridge soft because of his chill nature, his spindly body, his disdain for playing center, and his preference to shoot jumpers. To be honest, he looked a little soft as well, with that flat emotionless face. He was too comfortable playing second fiddle to Brandon Roy, and it showed on his face and in his body language.
When Roy had to retire, and Greg Oden became the latest in a long line of Epic Draft Fails for Portland, Aldridge was forced to make up for their loss. The basketball stuff was easy; his accurate jumper, combined with the low-post moves former coach Nate McMillian force-fed him, enabled Aldridge to serve as the hub of the Blazer offense.
It was the “intangibles” that Aldridge had always lacked. The follow-me-or-else type of leaders, the ultra-confident players, dot the NBA landscape like weeds. Some of those guys–okay, most of them–think way too much of themselves. They snap at you if you dare to write anything negative about them (looking at you, Russell Westbrook). They reject the notion that maybe they’re doing things the wrong way, convinced that everything wrong with the team would be solved if they got more of theirs, more shots, more time to dribble, more plays called for them, more more more.
Aldridge isn’t that kind of type A, obsessive-compulsive maniac, and so both former players and media members called him soft. They said he lacked the leadership qualities that Portland needed, that they could perhaps get that from Damian Lillard.
Lillard is the confident maniac-type that I referenced, but unlike Westbrook does with Kevin Durant, Lillard doesn’t undermine Aldridge on offense or in the locker room. Lillard is the second banana and crunch-time killer on this team, and he knows it and understands it.
It’s true that Aldridge being the dominant force on the Blazers since Lillard was a rookie has a ton to do with it, but I think that Lillard knows, deep down, that he’d likely go down the path of Kyrie Irving if it weren’t for Aldridge’s influence: a one-on-one player, offensively gifted with no idea how to be a point guard, a position-less goober with a loser’s mentality.
Limited as he might be, Aldridge makes everything on the court easier for his teammates, and knowing he’s always there, life raft in hand, allows Portland to launch threes with impunity even while trailing by double-digits. He’s the ultimate bailout option on offense, and his speed and length on defense makes him indispensable there as well. He can seamlessly go from checking stretch power forwards on the perimeter, to containing a pick-and-roll, to banging with brutes in the post.
That kind of versatility is invaluable, and everybody on the Blazers knows it.
Another telling sign of the utter respect Aldridge has in the Blazer locker room is Wesley Matthews embracing him after finding out that Aldridge would play. When Matthews found out that Aldridge would be playing via the NBA Gametime app, he didn’t believe it at first. When he got the truth from Aldridge before the game, Wes was overcome with emotion.
Anyone who can inspire that kind of a reaction from a grown man, and play sports at an elite level with a torn thumb, can’t ever be considered soft. Aldridge has forever dashed that perception of him on the rocks.
Time for picks! Let’s go! (All games on AM 620 radio, all stats per NBA.com)
Monday, Jan. 26: @ the Brooklyn Nets, CSNNW, 4:30 PM
The Skinny: All throughout the NBA landscape, the one thing the disparate franchises have in common is hope, either for the present or the future.
You have teams like Golden State and Memphis, who’ve emerged as contenders. You have the likes of San Antonio and Oklahoma City, perennial giants who’re struggling to hold on to that status (for different reasons). You have the bad teams like Orlando, Utah and Minnesota, filled with young talent and promise. Indiana has hope because Paul George, a top-ten player when healthy, will return next year.
For the love of God, even the utterly horrendous New York Knicks have the cachet of Broadway and their high draft pick to hang their hats on, as well as the promise that Phil Jackson will demolish the roster and provide New York with their first clean cap sheet in millennia.
The two teams in the league without any hope at all, whether for the now or the future, are the Miami Heat and the Blazers’ opponents today, the Brooklyn Nets.
The Heat and Nets are teams full of veterans, some with chronic injury issues, who are on the fringes of the Eastern Conference playoff picture despite the East being weak; Charlotte recently overtook Brooklyn for the last playoff spot, while Miami is seventh. Veteran-laden teams mired in mediocrity are the dodo bird of the NBA, swiftly doomed to extinction.
Miami does have Chris Bosh, and should be able to sneak into the playoffs. Mickey Arison can at least comfort himself with a couple home games’ worth of revenue before the Atlanta Hawks destroy the jumbled mishmash he’s served the indifferent, weak-willed Heat “fans.”
Brooklyn doesn’t even have those luxuries.
With Brook Lopez, who actually fit’s the label “soft,” clashing with coach Lionel Hollins and being shopped around, the Nets are looking to cut bait with the one relatively young asset they have.
Deron Williams has been as injury-prone as Lopez, and he’s stunk anyway since he forced legendary Utah Jazz coach Jerry Sloan out of his job. Williams took offense to Sloan’s treatment of him (another of those “more more more” guys I mentioned), and in a massive ego trip, made Sloan resign. Williams ended up demanding a trade anyway, and now I’m very happy to see karma biting him right in the hinder.
Joe Johnson is tied with Kobe Bryant for the worst contract in the NBA right now, and with his old-school max, Williams’ max, and Lopez’s max contracts all on the books, in addition to the large sums the fossilized Kevin Garnett and the Nets’ younger vets are owed, Brooklyn is hopelessly over the tax. The franchise actually LOST money last year, and not just a couple million. I’m talking nine figures-type money. With revenue-sharing, and being in the largest media market in the Western Hemisphere, that should be impossible, but that’s where GM Billy King’s led the Nets.
Wait until you hear this part: the Nets also have given peculiar rights to the Hawks and Celtics regarding their draft picks in the trades that brought Johnson and Garnett to Brooklyn. This year, the Hawks have the right to swap their first-round pick with the Nets, and with Atlanta on pace to finish with a top-three record, that is craptastic news. Exchanging a lottery pick for a pick destined to be 27th or 28th is a good way to submarine your future.
Brooklyn also gave it’s 2016 and 2018 firsts outright (repeat: OUTRIGHT) to Boston, along with letting the Celtics switch their 2017 pick with Brooklyn’s if they’re so inclined.
And a piece of Portland-related history? The Blazers traded Gerald Wallace to the Nets for a 2012 top-three protected pick. That draft pick ended up being sixth, and was used to select some random dingus named Damian Lillard.
How Not to Run an NBA Franchise, by Billy King, will be in bookstores everywhere in 2018.
Key Matchup: I’ve wasted too much time on the Nets already, sorry.
Prediction: The Blazers start slow, then bury Brooklyn with three-pointers.
Wednesday, Jan. 28: @ the Cleveland Cavaliers, KGW, 4:00 PM
The Skinny: Continuing the four-game road trip, Portland rolls into Cleveland to play a Cavs team that has improved slightly from their flat performances to start the year. The drama remains, however.
LeBron James’ performance on the court has gotten criticized, but his scoring and assists are still on par with his usual ridiculous numbers; James is actually averaging over two assists more than Irving, the team’s “point guard,” this season. The telling numbers, traditionally speaking, are his rebounds and field-goal percentage.
In Miami, LeBron averaged between seven and eight rebounds a game and shot an unreal 56% his last two years there. In 2012-13, he also shot 40% from three, and maintained a 38% clip the following year.
This season, James’ rebounding has dropped to five a game, and his shooting from the field is below 50%. Some of this is scheme-related, since LeBron is playing mostly from the wing instead of assuming the hybrid four-spot Miami coach Erik Spoelstra invented for him. The belief throughout the NBA, however, is that it’s also about effort.
LeBron is a player that needs to be HAPPY to play to his fullest. Like Magic Johnson before him, he’s the ultimate homebody and frontrunner; he enjoys playing at home, hearing the roar of the crowd as he gets out on the break and stuffs home a dunk, or the oohs and ahhs after a clever pass. He roots for the Dallas Cowboys and New York Yankees not because they’ve been good recently (the Cowboy’s “resurgence” this year will be exposed in 2015), but because they’re big popular names.
With Kevin Love lost in Cavs coach David Blatt’s system, Irving having no idea what he’s doing on a consistent basis, and a general lack of defensive effort, LeBron’s not having fun, not being HAPPY. That, more than any schematic issues or who’s the coach or whatever, is what’s held the Cavaliers back this season.
Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Kyrie Irving. On the surface, the numbers for these guys look similar. Lillard’s per game numbers are slightly better than Irving’s (22/5/6 to 21/3/5), but Irving shoots slightly better (Lillard-44/37/86, Irving-46/39/84).
They both shoot giant amounts of above-the-break threes, they both shoot very well on that step-back jumper they use to get space, and they both finish very well at the rim. From what the stats can tell, there’s very little that separates these players, if there’s any separation at all.
This is where having context outside the stat sheet can help, however. With his new star teammates coming in, Irving’s game was supposed to flourish, like a John Wall with elite three-point shooting. Instead, it’s really been more of the same iso-ball and fruitless pick-and-rolls/pops, except his partners are a disinterested and clueless Love and centers with hands of stone.
I was hoping to see an Irving/LeBron pick-and-roll; imagine having to cover for Irving’s spectacular speed around the corner, or worrying about him stepping back for an open three, while the best player on the planet (who’s a basketball savant, by the way) is diving to the hoop or popping out to the side, depending on what Irving does? Sounds impossible to defend, right? Now imagine if these guys were surrounded by guys that could shoot the three as well as Irving, like Kevin Love.
You can see why the Cavs should be much better than they are, and why everybody that loves basketball is so pissed it isn’t working. Their offense is still great, but that’s because James and Irving are extremely talented on offense, not due to any scheme or because Love’s joining the party.
Lillard’s also much better defensively this year, as the defensive malaise surrounding Cleveland has infected Irving, who’s a lousy defender anyway. Lillard needs to exploit Irving on the offensive end and keep him in front on defense. If the Cavs continue to be so predictable, it shouldn’t be an issue.
Prediction: I’m not excited about this pick, but if Aldridge and Lillard can come up with big games, Portland should be able to overcome the Cavs.
Friday, Jan. 30: @ the Atlanta Hawks, CSNNW, 4:30 PM
The Skinny: Wow. Just wow.
The Hawks went from a middling Eastern team to a team that CBSSports.com writer Matt Moore affectionately refers to as the “JUGGERHAWK!” Atlanta is coached by former Spurs lifer Mike Budenholzer, and the Spurs influence is all over this team.
The Hawks lack a Tim Duncan or Tony Parker, that star player who can get you a bucket or a stop when you need it the most. The closest Atlanta has to that player is Al Horford, but on a team that’s gone 37-8 so far this season, maybe doing the deed by committee isn’t such a bad idea. We know what the Spurs have accomplished with a team structure similar to Atlanta’s.
The Hawks shoot 38% as a team from deep, led by the inhuman Kyle Korver at 53% (he shoots better from three than he does from the field in general…my eyes just exploded). Korver is on pace to shoot 50% from the field, 50% from three, and 90% from the line. That’s never been done in NBA history; the only three guys to shoot 50/40/90 for a season are Larry Bird, Steve Nash, and Dirk Nowitzki. Basically, Korver’s on pace to outdo three of the 40 best players in league history, and three of the five best shooters ever. Mind. Blown.
Jeff Teague is the point guard that makes the fifth-best offense in the NBA go. They assist on the highest percentage of their field goals in the league, and Teague’s vision is a key part of that.
Paul Millsap is basically a shorter, less-volume Aldridge; he is undersized on defense and doesn’t have the kind of midrange touch Aldridge has, but Millsap can stretch you out to the three-point line and rebound with the best of them. He makes $9 million this season, yet he’s outperforming Kevin Love, who’s going to sign a max contract next summer while Millsap stands a good chance of getting overlooked while providing many of the same skills.
History says what the Hawks are trying to do, which is win a title without a top-15 player, can’t be done. With the NBA’s power structure not set, Atlanta could take advantage of the vacuum like the 2011 Dallas Mavericks. We’ll see if they can buck convention.
Key Matchup: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Al Horford. Millsap is wide and strong, but Aldridge has made mincemeat of those kinds of forwards for years. Expect Horford to draw this assignment.
Aldridge’s thumb will be the elephant in the room for the rest of the season. Whenever I feature Aldridge from now on, it has to be with the knowledge that he’s in some pain, and that it could impact him on some days. The thought sticks out like a…sore thumb. (Sorry)
Horford and the Hawks will try to defend Aldridge by committee, but it’s when Aldridge is playing defense that should concern fans. His defensive versatility will be tested here, as the Hawks will throw the kitchen sink at him. Millsap will try to drive, pop out for a three, or run a pick play with Teague.
They’ll try to get Horford from the midrange or in the paint, Korver moving around without the ball, or force a switch to make Aldridge guard Teague. Aldridge better get a case of Red Bull, because the Hawks will look to expend his energy on defense.
Prediction: The Hawks have played well everywhere, and the Blazers haven’t fared well against good teams on the road. Atlanta blows their doors off, and Terry Stotts rests his starters for tomorrow night’s game at Milwaukee.
Saturday, Jan. 31: @ the Milwaukee Bucks, CSNNW, 5:30 PM
The Skinny: Considering that this was the worst team in the NBA last season, it’s a bit of a shock that the Bucks are .500 after 44 games this season, even without prized rookie Jabari Parker (torn ACL) and center Larry Sanders (personal issues). A young team that can’t score sitting at sixth? Gotta love the Eastern Conference.
The key to Milwaukee’s success this year is a stifling defense that’s second in the league in rating, with a legion of young, long-armed monsters capable of blanketing all but the most resolute or creative scorers. Even though Sanders likely won’t play for Milwaukee again, John Henson and Zaza Pachulia are capable players.
Despite the excellent defense, the Bucks’ net rating (offensive rating – defensive rating = net rating) is only 2.0 because they have nobody that can reliably create chances to score. Giannis Antetokounmpo (AKA the Greek Freak) isn’t ready to handle that burden, and there were always doubts that Brandon Knight ever could; that’s why Detroit was willing to trade him within the division.
Milwaukee making the playoffs would have been a bigger boon if Parker were healthy and able to share in the experience with the Greek Freak, the fellow steward of the Bucks’ future. As it is, I’m sure the Greek Freak will use the opportunity to introduce himself to a national audience.
His crazy-long arms and athleticism mask the fact that he’s a terrible shooter. Averaging 11 points, six rebounds, and two assists a game, the Greek Freak’s numbers are modest and uninspiring until you remember that he’s a teenager who basically played one year of pro ball in Greece, which is like playing a couple years at your local high school before jumping to the NBA. His shooting from inside five feet is a stellar 62%, showing an ability to finish once he gets into the paint.
Outside of five feet is where the bricks get laid; the Greek Freak is shooting 44-150 outside five feet for the season, translating to 32%. Ick.
When Parker returns next season, both he and his Greek buddy have to improve their outside shooting and playmaking if they want to succeed in this league.
Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Brandon Knight. While I did say Knight still has to prove himself as a playmaker, there’s little wrong with his scoring. That’s a good thing right now, because Milwaukee’s desperate for anybody that can put the big orange ball through that orange hoop.
Knight’s 44% shooting from the floor isn’t all that spectacular, but it’s his three-point shooting and free-throw shooting that draw the eye. He only shoots four foul shots a game, but makes 89% of them, and shooting 40% from beyond the arc while jacking almost five a game is impressive for anybody.
Since Knight doesn’t have a scary pick-and-roll game, Lillard should be able to keep a close eye on Knight. It’s defensively where Lillard will get tested, as Knight is the first line of defense for that stingy Bucks defense.
Prediction: This one will be low-scoring and ugly. In these kinds of games, it’s prudent to go with the teams with guys who can get you a bucket whenever you need one. Aldridge does just enough to help Portland pinch out a win.
Last week was an averted disaster for the Blazers, and a full-on disaster for me. The team went 2-2, I went 1-3 because Aldridge got injured. Phoenix and Boston turned my predicted wins into losses, while I picked Washington to win on Saturday…when Aldridge returned and willed the Blazers to victory.
LaMarcus Aldridge, stop screwing with my predictions! Is this another of your superpowers?
Trail Blazers’ Record: 32-13
Jared’s Picks Record: 31-14