NHS becomes key EU referendum battleground
Michael Howard, the former Conservative leader, told The Sunday Telegraph that Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt's claim that leaving the EU would mean deep funding cuts for the NHS is a “myth”. Employment Minister Priti Patel warned that the health service is “under threat” because of the UK's membership and the strains caused by EU immigration, saying "Current levels of migration are causing unsustainable pressures on our public services and we can see that the NHS is creaking under the strain”.
However, four former Labour health secretaries Alan Milburn, Patricia Hewitt, Andy Burnham and Alan Johnson have said leaving the EU would risk “frightening consequences for staffing, waiting times and levels of service care”. Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, Lord Darzi, the former health minister, argued: “Huge amounts of investment in research and innovation are being put at risk. The European Union is a scientific superpower; and we are its leading light.” And, in a letter to The Times, nearly 200 health professionals and researchers argue: “As health professionals and researchers we write to highlight the valuable benefits of continued EU membership to the NHS, medical innovation and UK public health.”
Sources: The Daily Mail, The Times: Letters , The Guardian, The Sunday Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph: Darzi, The Sun on Sunday
Opinium survey finds 81% of older voters certain to turn out in EU referendum, compared to 52% of younger voters
A new Opinium survey for the Observer has found that 54% of voters aged over 55 want to leave the EU, compared to 30% who want to stay, with 81% of these people saying they are certain they will vote in the referendum. In comparison 53% of those aged 18-34 back remaining in the EU, while 29% want leave, but only 52% of them said they were certain they will vote.
The survey also had the leave campaign ahead, with 43% backing Brexit, 39% wanting to remain, with 18% still undecided. A poll by GQRR however puts Remain ahead on 45%, with Leave on 40%, but when the main arguments for both sides were put to voters, the poll had both campaigns tied on 42%. Meanwhile, research for The Times Red Box highlights that 28% of MPs differ from the opinion in their constituency on EU membership.
Sources: Daily Express, The Independent, The Times
Javid: Wholesale rewriting of EU tariff rules in no one’s interest
In an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Business Secretary Sajid Javid argued that the government would do “everything we can” to keep the Port Talbot steelworks open, although he added he did not consider nationalisation to be a viable solution. Asked about the UK’s alleged opposition to the EU imposing anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel, Javid claimed that there was a lot of “misinformation” on this issue, adding that “The UK has been the leader in getting more done where there is evidence of dumping and imposing tariffs… What other countries often talk about is a wholesale rewriting of the tariff rules. That’s not really about steel, that’s about having a more protectionist Europe, which is in no one’s interest. It’s not in the interest of businesses, it’s not in the interest of consumers.”
The Times reports that a proposed plan for the government to assist with the British steel industry’s £15bn pension liabilities in order to facilitate a buy out from new private investors could run afoul of EU state aid rules. Meanwhile, on Friday, China announced it would impose a 46% import duty on grain-oriented electrical steel from the EU, South Korea and Japan on the grounds that imports from those sources were damaging its domestic steel industry.
Writing in his weekly column in The Daily Telegraph, London Mayor Boris Johnson argues that the “misfortunes [of the UK’s steel industry] arise in policy areas over which these workers might reasonably expect their elected government to have some control, but which the UK has simply lost; abandoned; surrendered; supinely given up as part of our membership of the EU… Even when we want to change tack on tariffs, we can’t – because we have given up control.”
Meanwhile, today’s City AM leader argues that “the Leave campaign needs to be wary of trumpeting protectionist causes… Such soundbites will go down well in many corners of the country, but they contradict the idea that Britain could be a more globally focused, free trade state if only it escaped the socialist fetters of Brussels. Are we leaving the EU in order to tear down trade barriers, or to regain the right to build them?”
Sources: BBC: Andrew Marr show, The Financial Times, The Times, The Daily Telegraph: Johnson , City AM: Leader
Financial markets fear sterling devaluation post Brexit
The Financial Times reports that the cost of insuring against a devaluation in sterling after the June EU referendum has soared to levels higher that those seen during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. Sterling has already fallen by 7% on a trade weighted basis since the start of the year but the latest figures show that financial markets are concerned it could fall even further. However some view market prices as representing such excess caution that there may be little further downward movement for the currency. “Our view is a lot of the bad news on the pound is already priced in”, said Sam Lynton-Brown, currency strategist for BNP Paribas.
Meanwhile, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Chief Executive of the London Stock Exchange Xavier Rolet said British withdrawal “is the end of the European Union.” He added, “It will mean an advantage for Russia, it will mean a reassessment of the value of the UK relationship and the European relationship by China, and it will mean that the United States has got to come back in and intervene.” He said Brexit could also have adverse consequences for the City of London. “In my humble opinion, in the area of clearing, which basically drives the bulk of our flows… the decision to leave the EU would be beyond devastating for the City of London.”
Furthermore, a survey of finance directors of FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 companies and some unlisted businesses by Deloitte has found that business investment has slowed in the run-up to the EU referendum, with businesses citing rising uncertainty as a key reason.
Sources: The Financial Times, The Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, The Times
Energy Minister: Wages will rise if Britain votes for Brexit
Writing in the Daily Mail Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom argues that wages will raise and unemployment will fall if Britain votes for Brexit. She argues “To my mind it is totally unacceptable that big businesses have, for more than a decade, been holding down the wages of UK workers by employing more and more EU migrant labour. How would leaving the EU affect interest rates and the wider economy? Well, currently interest rates among all developed countries are at historically low levels, and the UK is no different… Inflation rates are also extremely low. There is no reason to think that in leaving the EU, there would be any change.”
However, Writing in Handelsblatt, Dirk Heilmann, the chief economist of the Handelsblatt Research Institute argues that from an economic perspective, Brexit would be “a huge own goal”. He cites several economic analyses of the potential impacts of Brexit including Open Europe’s study from last year which found that the likely impact would range between a 2.2% fall in GDP by 2030 and a 1.6% increase depending on the subsequent UK-EU trading relationship and domestic policy decisions.
Sources: Open Europe Brexit report, The Daily Mail
New figures for EU migration to be published weeks before referendum
New figures showing the number of EU migrants working in the UK, which could show that previous figures had been significantly underestimated, will be published just weeks before the EU referendum. Official figures, based on survey data, estimates that over the last four years 800,000 EU migrants have moved to the UK however over the same period HMRC has given 2 million National Insurance numbers to EU nationals. This large gap has driven concerns that official figures have seriously underestimated the level of EU migration which, if true, could have a dramatic impact on the referendum campaign. The figures HMRC will release will show how many of the National Insurance numbers are actively being used.
Sources: The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph
French Finance Minister hints at possible EU Treaty change “beyond 2017”
French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told the Financial Times, “Whatever happens in June [with the UK’s EU referendum], we need more integration. We can only fight Euroscepticism with ambition and ideal. We can progress within the current [EU] Treaties, but we also need a ten-year vision that could involve Treaty changes beyond 2017.” Sapin also hit back at criticism that France is being too slow at carrying out deep economic reforms, saying, “People say our method is not centred on delivering shocks. But the Germans took ten years to implement their [labour market] reforms. It’s a myth that reforms happened overnight. If we had been in the same situation as Greece or Spain, reforms could be more brutal. But it isn’t.”
Source: The Financial Times
Greece begins deporting migrants back to Turkey
Greece has begun deporting migrants back to Turkey this morning, the first time since the EU-Turkey deal was agreed back in March. However, The Times reports that there are a series of concerns over the deportation procedure, with the EU having only deployed half the number of border guards to help with the deportations, as well as a lack of translators and officials.
Sources: The Times, Reuters, Daily Telegraph
New poll: Majority of Italians think Brexit would have “only negative effects”
According to a new Demos poll for La Repubblica, 50.5% of Italians think Britain leaving the EU would have “only negative effects” – compared to 12% who said it would have “only positive effects”. 15.3% of respondents believe Brexit would have “positive effects for the UK but negative effects for Europe”, while only 2.9% said it would have “positive effects for Europe but negative effects for the UK.”
Source: La Repubblica
Tsipras and Lagarde trade barbs over leaked IMF conversation
Over the weekend, WikiLeaks published the transcript of a conversation among IMF officials involved in the monitoring of the third Greek bailout package. Poul Thomsen, the head of the IMF negotiating team, said during the conversation, “What is going to bring it all to a decision point? In the past, there has been only one time when the decision has been made and then that was when they [Greece] were about to run out of money seriously and to default. And possibly this is what is going to happen again.” He also noted that the UK’s EU referendum, which will take place on June 23, was likely to delay negotiations with Greece – as other EU leaders would want to put talks with Athens on hold until after the British vote. Following the leak, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras questioned in a letter to IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde “whether Greece can trust and continue negotiating in good faith” with the IMF. Lagarde yesterday replied, “Any speculation that IMF staff would consider using a credit event as a negotiating tactic is simply nonsense…The [IMF negotiating] team consists of experienced staff who have my full confidence and personal backing. For them to be able to do their work, as you have invited us, it is critical that your authorities ensure an environment that respects the privacy of their internal discussions and take all necessary steps to guarantee their personal safety” – which many have seen as a veiled accusation that the Greek government could have played a role in the publication of the leaked conversation.
Sources: Lagarde’s letter, The Financial Times, Kathimerini
EU courts face insider’s criticism over increased number of judges
Franklin Dehousse, a judge in the General Court, the EU’s second-highest tribunal after the ECJ, has suggested in a recent report that the court tried to hide the fact that it had managed to clear its case backlog to make sure that EU member states would press ahead with plans to double the number of General Court judges. Dehousse argues that “the EU member states’ inability to agree on anything but a simple multiplication of judges aggravated the situation. It made the appointment of judges in specialised courts more difficult, and thus provided an excuse for their abolition, though they were obviously more quality oriented, more productive, and more economical. It also provoked a doubling of the General Court, which was manifestly excessive…This weakness has clearly become a source of useless spending by the EU.” He warns that the legislative procedure for the enlargement of the General Court “invites a general reflection on the exceptional legislative power that has been conferred upon the [European] Court of Justice. One searches in vain to find an equivalent in the member states. Supreme Courts do not enjoy a right of legislative initiative, let alone a quasi-monopoly over it. The events of the last four years tend to show that serious consideration ought to be given to the withdrawal of this exorbitant prerogative.” The report also notes that the UK was the only country to vote against the enlargement of the General Court, with Belgium and the Netherlands abstaining.
Sources: Dehousse’s report , Politico: Brussels Playbook
Polish Foreign Minister: Strategic co-operation between EU and NATO must be re-defined
Writing in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski argues that “We need to re-define the strategic co-operation between the EU and NATO”, adding that the lack of formal co-operation protocols between the two organisations “is a challenge for security in Europe in view of hybrid threats that link conventional military and asymmetrical elements together.” He concludes that “Hand on heart, it is not possible to say that the EU presides over a common Foreign and Security policy worthy of the name.”
Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
New Spanish poll: Centre-right alliance could win absolute majority in case of re-run elections
A new Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo puts Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s centre-right Partido Popular in the lead on 30.2%, followed by the Socialist Party on 22%, the centrist Ciudadanos on 16.2% and the anti-establishment Podemos on 16.7%. According to the poll, Partido Popular and Ciudadanos together would secure an absolute majority in the lower house of the Spanish parliament – as they would win a total 180 of 350 seats.
Source: El Mundo
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