New poll suggests Leave benefiting from focusing on migration, amid concerns many Labour voters are not aware that the party backs continued EU membership
The latest ORB poll for The Daily Telegraph, conducted after the release of the latest round of immigration figures and the Leave campaign’s increasing focus on the issue, has Remain on 51% (-4%) and Leave on 46% (+4%). Writing in the paper, Sir Lynton Crosby argues that the “increasing focus on lack of control over immigration and associated message discipline” had helped the Leave campaign.
In an open letter to Prime Minister David Cameron, Justice Secretary Michael Gove and former London Mayor Boris Johnson argue, “Voters were promised repeatedly at elections that net immigration could be cut to the tens of thousands. This promise is plainly not achievable as long as the UK is a member of the EU and the failure to keep it is corrosive of public trust in politics.” Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, Employment Minister Priti Patel claimed that “for the millions of Britons who feel the consequences [of inward migration] every day, this rate of growth cannot continue. But bureaucrats in Brussels and the leaders of the Remain campaign do not seem to mind – their lifestyles insulate them from this impact…It’s shameful that those leading the pro-EU campaign fail to care for those who do not have their advantages.” Three backbench Tory MPs – including Sir Bill Cash – have stated publicly that Cameron should face a leadership challenge in coming months regardless of the outcome of the referendum result.
Meanwhile, a YouGov poll for The Times’ Red Box has found that only 43% of Labour voters were able to accurately identify the fact that the majority of the party’s MPs support remaining inside the EU, with 9% believing the party was either wholly or mostly in favour of leaving and another 9% believing it to be evenly split. 12% of respondents thought the party was wholly in favour of staying in the EU, while 28% said they did not know. The findings have reignited the debate about Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s relatively low profile during the referendum campaign so far.
Cameron yesterday held a joint campaign rally with Sadiq Khan, the new Labour Mayor of London, during which he said the two were campaigning together “because we love our country, we want our country to be the best we possibly can, to be the strongest, to be the greatest.” However, The Times cites a senior Labour campaigner in the north of England as saying, “It’s not in our favour, and in fact it causes us harm, to support the same cause as Cameron, who will in any case take the credit for a Remain win.” The paper also notes that many Labour and Conservative Remain supporting MPs have admitted privately that they are doing little door-to-door canvassing in their constituencies and are instead pursuing a ‘blanket bomb’ strategy of leafleting, complemented by street stalls.
Meanwhile, former Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King complained that both sides in the referendum campaign “have been engaged in a public relations campaign which insults the intelligence of the voters by making wildly exaggerated claims.” Separately, in a joint article in The Sun, Leave campaigners Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Gisela Stuart argue that leaving the EU would mean higher wages, lower fuel bills and more money to spend on the NHS. Chancellor George Osborne responded, “More fantasy economics from Vote Leave: leaving the EU would lead to smaller economy, a hole in public finances and higher taxes – like higher VAT.”
Sources: The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Telegraph: Lynton Crosby, The Times, The Financial Times, The Daily Mail , Reuters, The Sun, The Guardian, The Sunday Times, The Sunday Telegraph: Patel
Rescue of 18 Albanians fuels fears English Channel may become new migrant smuggling route
Concerns that the UK may be seeing the start of a new trend of people-smuggling across the Channel were raised when a sinking boat carrying 18 Albanian migrants was rescued off the coast of Kent on Saturday. John Vine, a former independent chief inspector of borders and immigration, told BBC Radio 4, “If this is now the start of a new trend we certainly need to gather the intelligence and the resources to nip it in the bud.” The Times reports that the Home Office dismissed concerns by the borders inspectors over people-smuggling in small boats as “not significant” only months ago. Ministers admitted that the Border Force was relying on volunteers as “eyes and ears” to report suspicious activity around the 7,000-mile coastline.
Sources: The Guardian, The Times
Survey of economists finds large degree of consensus on short term negative impact of leaving the EU and single market
An Ipsos-MORI poll of over 600 leading economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector, commissioned by The Observer, found that 88% believed leaving the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years. 82% of the economists thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.
Meanwhile, in a letter to The Financial Times, the chairs and CEOs of many of Europe’s largest companies – collectively employing some 7 million people across 50 countries – argue that “the EU certainly needs to be improved”, but add that “an unravelling of the single market and the rules governing 28 countries would reduce, not boost our prosperity. Investment and job creation benefit from a united Europe. And, while respecting the decision of the people in the UK, we believe that a Europe without the UK would be weaker, just as the UK itself would be weaker outside Europe.”
Source: The Observer
France braces itself for more strikes over labour reform bill, but trade unions soften tone
Further strikes are planned for this week in France and are expected to cause severe disruption to air and rail transport, as protests against the French government’s new labour reform bill continue. However, Philippe Martinez, the leader of the hard-line CGT trade union, appeared to strike a softer tone yesterday, when he told RTL radio that his organisation would be open to “returning to the negotiating table.”
Open Europe’s Vincenzo Scarpetta appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe yesterday discussing the situation in France, and argued that the French government “cannot afford to completely back down, as this could tarnish France’s image among foreign investors.”
Sources: CNBC: Squawk Box Europe, RTL, BFM TV
Tusk: We failed to notice that ordinary people do not share our euro-enthusiasm
European Council President Donald Tusk told a meeting of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), “It is us who today are responsible for confronting reality with all kinds of utopias – a utopia of Europe without nation states, a utopia of Europe without conflicting interests and ambitions, a utopia of Europe imposing its own values on the external world. Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people do not share our Euro-enthusiasm…Euroscepticism has become an alternative to those illusions.”
Sources: Reuters, Politico
Sir Hugh Orde: Pledges to maintain no border controls on Irish border in event of Brexit are untenable
The Irish Times reports that Sir Hugh Orde, the former chief constable of the Northern Ireland Police Service and Remain supporter, has described as “untenable” the pledges by Leave campaigner and Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers that a British vote to leave the EU would not lead to border controls with the Republic of Ireland.
Source: The Irish Times
German NGOs to launch legal challenge against EU-Canada trade deal
The Financial Times reports that a group of German NGOs are to take a case against the EU-Canada free trade agreement to the German Constitutional Court, raising objections to the Investor-to-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism foreseen in the deal. The NGOs have criticised what they call “special pleading rights for investors, expert bodies without democratic legitimacy and the missing participation of the German parliament.”
Meanwhile, the European Commission will this week set out guidelines for national treatment of digital services such as Uber and Airbnb. Bans on services should be a “measure of last resort” for governments, according to draft seen by The Financial Times.
Sources: Open Europe Blog, The Financial Times
Disbursement of Greek bailout funds could face further delays
The next disbursement of bailout funds to Athens could be delayed further, despite Eurozone finance ministers giving it the green light last week. Issues around further reforms which Greece had agreed to implement have arisen – including over freezing wages for certain public sector employees and privatising the country’s power grid operator.
Sources: Kathimerini, The Wall Street Journal
Poland’s ruling party steps up rhetoric in rule of law dispute with European Commission
In an interview with Polish weekly Do Rzeczy, the leader of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party Jaroslaw Kaczynski said of the on-going rule of law dispute between the Polish government and the European Commission, “The procedure that is currently being used against us is a non-treaty procedure, a made-up one, and it can be challenged in the ECJ at any moment. If it gets fierce, we will do this.”
Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszcykowski made similar remarks in an interview with Polish broadcaster TVN24, arguing that the procedure “is not based on the [EU] treaties. It’s based on a certain practice, invented by EU officials, not even of a high rank but of a middle rank.”
Source: EUObserver
Switzerland ranked as most competitive European state, with Sweden most competitive in the EU
According to the latest annual ranking from the IMD Competitiveness Centre, Sweden is the most competitive economy in the EU, coming fifth in the world, closely followed by Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands. Switzerland was the highest-ranked European country, coming in second. The UK ranked 18th – up one place from last year. The lowest-ranked EU country was Greece, coming in 56th out of 61 and falling six places from last year.
Sources: IMD Competitiveness Centre press release, IMD full ranking
Turkey warns Berlin not to label Ottoman massacre of Armenians as genocide
Ahead of a vote this week by the German Bundestag to recognise the massacre of millions of Armenians by Ottoman forces as genocide, Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister and government spokesman Numan Kurtulmus said, “Germany must be careful concerning its relations with Turkey. I do not think that the German parliament will destroy this relationship for the sake of two or three politicians” who had put the resolution before the Bundestag. Separately, the Speaker of the Italian Parliament, Laura Boldrini, told reporters on Monday that the EU-Turkey migrant deal “is not working.” Over 700 migrants are feared dead in the Mediterranean, as 13,000 are estimated to have sailed for Europe from Libya last week.
Sources: EurActiv, ANSA, EUobserver
Merkel’s Grand Coalition polling below 50% for the first time
Germany’s ruling Grand Coalition, made up of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU/CSU and the centre-left SPD, have fallen below 50% for the first time since taking power in 2013, according to the latest Bild Wahlcheck poll. Merkel’s CDU/CSU are on 30% (-0.5), the SPD are on 19% (-0.5), whilst the AfD and the Greens remain on 15% and 13% respectively. Hard-left Die Linke are on 9.5% (-0.5) and the Liberal FDP are on 8% (+1).
Sources: Open Europe Blog, Bild, Süddeutsche Zeitung
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