David Cameron confirms deal on UK’s EU reform package is unlikely in December
Prime Minister David Cameron said yesterday of his EU renegotiation, “We are not going to agree it in one go, so I do not expect to reach agreement at this December [European Council] summit but we won’t take our foot off the pedal.” This had been widely expected, with Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Jonathan Faull, head of the UK taskforce at the European Commission, previously suggesting that a deal was more likely to be finalised in February. Reports suggest that Cameron settled on this position after a phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, where it became clear that a quick agreement would not be possible on the issue of EU migrants’ access to benefits. Cameron’s spokesman said that limiting EU migrants’ access to in-work benefits remains a “core part” of the UK’s negotiation. The Financial Times reports that Cameron is seeking treaty changes to achieve the reform.
Meanwhile, in an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Czech Europe Minister Tomas Prouza said that the “only solution” is for any benefits limits to apply to UK citizens as well as EU citizens. He said, “If they were talking about stopping the misuse of the social system then I think everybody would sympathise and try to find a solution, but if it’s dividing people into two classes then that is a no-go.”
Sources: The Financial Times, The Daily Telegraph, The Times
Danish referendum: Voters reject closer EU co-operation on crime and policing
Danes yesterday voted to keep their full opt-out from the EU’s crime and policing laws. 53.1% rejected the option of opting in on a case-by-case basis and 46.9% backed such a model. The result means Denmark will have to negotiate a special agreement to stay inside Europol, the EU’s law enforcement agency which tackles organised crime and terrorism amid some concerns it could be locked out altogether. Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said after the vote, “I don’t consider this as a step back. The Danes have refused to take a step forward…The reasons why Danes refused to choose what we proposed is probably that there’s this feeling of uncertainty given the fact that Europe is right now faced with other major problems which we haven’t really solved.”
Sources: Open Europe Blog, BBC, Reuters
Markets fall as ECB easing falls well short of expectations
The ECB yesterday unveiled further easing measures. However, they fell well short of market expectations. The ECB cut the deposit rate from -0.2% to -0.3%, extended the end of the asset purchase programme from September 2016 to March 2017, broadened the purchases to include regional and local government debt, and promised to reinvest principal payments on debt back into similar instruments. In response, stock markets dropped sharply across Europe with the German DAX and the French CAC 40 dropping by over 3.5%. The euro also rose sharply by 3% against the US dollar. Many had expected the ECB to cut the deposit rate further and boost the monthly size of purchases from €60bn.
Writing for Forbes, Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel warns that this disappointment could have longer term implications for the ECB’s credibility and communication strategy.
Sources: Open Europe Blog, ECB, Forbes: Ruparel, The International New York Times, The Wall Street Journal
Greece requests additional EU support to police its border with Macedonia as Sweden considers closing bridge linking it with Denmark
Following speculation that Greece could be forced out of the EU’s border-free Schengen area over its inability to manage the influx of refugees, the country formally activated the EU’s Civil Protection Mechanism which will see additional personnel from Frontex, the EU’s border agency, deployed to the Greek-Macedonian border which has seen clashes between refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan – whom the Macedonian authorities are allowing through – and Moroccans and Pakistanis, whom they are not. Meanwhile, the Swedish government is considering closing the Oserund Bridge, which links Sweden’s third largest city with the Danish capital Copenhagen as part of its broader response to the influx of refugees into the country.
Sources: Kathimerini, The Financial Times
Central and Eastern EU member states voice opposition to ‘mini-Schengen’
In a joint statement, the prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – the so-called Visegrad Group – write, “All opportunistic proposals for a revolutionary transformation of the existing Schengen [rules] into a so-called mini-Schengen…are not acceptable.”
Source: Reuters
Labour wins Oldham West by-election as UKIP disappoints
The Labour Party retained control of the Oldham West and Royton constituency in yesterday’s by-election, securing 62.2% of the vote up from 54.8% in May’s general election. UKIP came in second on 23.3%, a worse than expected result. Turnout was expectedly low at 40.3%. UKIP Leader Nigel Farage claimed that the vote was distorted by “bent” postal voting.
Source: The Financial Times
New poll: Front National could finish ahead in half of French regions in first round of upcoming election
According to a new Ipsos poll for Le Monde, Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant Front National would finish ahead in six of thirteen French regions in the first round of the French regional elections on Sunday. The second, decisive round will take place on Sunday 13 December. The poll also shows that Front National would secure 30% of the nationwide vote in the first round, ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy’s centre-right alliance on 29% and French President François Hollande’s Socialist Party on 22%.
Sources: Open Europe Blog, Le Monde
US considers plans to limit visa-free travel for EU states unless they accept greater intelligence sharing
The US Republican Party has proposed legislation which would require EU states which participate in the visa-free travel programme with the US to share greater levels of intelligence and traveller information in order to boost security. The bill centres around concerns over the number of European citizens who have travelled to Syria. If European states do not comply, they could face being expelled from the visa-free travel agreement.
Source: The Financial Times
New Spanish poll gives ruling party a clear lead, but outright majority remains far away
According to a new CIS poll published yesterday, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s centre-right Partido Popular would win between 120 and 128 seats in the 20 December general election, clearly ahead of the Socialist Party with 77-89 seats, the centrist Ciudadanos with 63-66, and the anti-establishment Podemos with 45-49. However, Partido Popular would fall well short of an outright majority in the Spanish parliament – for which 176 seats are needed. The election campaign officially kicked off yesterday.
Sources: El País, El Mundo
Portuguese Socialist government officially in power with backing of other left-wing parties
Portugal’s new minority government of Socialist Prime Minister António Costa is officially in power after surviving a no-confidence motion tabled by the centre-right opposition led by outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho. The motion was rejected yesterday by 122 to 107 votes, thanks to the backing of the other left-wing parties – the Greens, the Left Bloc, and the Communist Party. However, divergences over a number of policies remain between the Socialist Party and its leftist allies. Catarina Martins, the leader of the Left Bloc, said yesterday that she will continue to push for a restructuring of Portugal’s public debt – something which the Socialist Party opposes.
Sources: Open Europe Blog, Diário Económico, Portuguese parliament
Bundestag votes to back German military intervention in Syria
The Bundestag voted this morning to back the deployment of German forces to take part in the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, with 445 votes in favour, 146 against and 7 abstentions. A new Infratest Dimap poll for ARD and Die Welt finds that 58% of Germans back taking part in the military intervention compared to 37% who oppose it.
Source: Die Welt
Belgium may have to claw back €700m from multinationals due to favourable tax arrangements
In an interview with De Standaard, Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt has said that it is “likely” Belgium could have to claw back up to €700m from multinational firms that have benefitted from favourable tax treatment, as the EU looks to crack down on such arrangements. Van Overtveldt said such recovery would be “particularly complex.”
Source: The Financial Times
The post David Cameron confirms deal on UK’s EU reform package is unlikely in December appeared first on Open Europe.