Brexit would cost Britons a month’s salary by 2020 says OECD – while Cruz says Britain would be at “front of the line” for US-FTA after leaving
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in a report on Wednesday that a Brexit would cost the average working Briton the equivalent of a month’s salary by 2020, which would then carry on as a “consistent loss.” Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General said it is “wistful thinking” to imagine that Britain would get a better deal for its economy outside the EU.
Meanwhile, Ted Cruz, who’s vying to become the Republican nominee for US President, has rejected Barack Obama’s EU intervention, writing in The Times that, “If Brexit takes places, Britain will be at the front of the line for a free trade deal with America, not at the back. There is a vast amount of trade, commerce and investment between our two nations." His comments come as James Clapper, Director of US National Intelligence, warned that the free movement of citizens around the EU was “in conflict” with the need to protect security. Clapper said there is evidence that ISIS is planting sleeper cells across the EU to launch Paris style-massacres in the UK and other member states. A new ICM poll finds that Leave is ahead on 46% (+2), whilst Remain is on 44% (+1). The poll, which was carried out during Obama’s visit to the UK, suggests that the President’s intervention has failed to shift support towards Remain.
Separately, Justice Secretary Michael Gove is reported to be “fuming” at Home Secretary Theresa May’s call to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), arguing in the Commons that doing so would “create a vacuum” that would be filled by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) – which is “a far greater threat to our liberty.” Gove argued for a British Bill of Rights to give UK Judges supremacy instead.
Sources: Reuters, The Times, The Sun, The Financial Times, Daily Telegraph, The Daily Express
Migration underestimated by 50,000 a year
Migration Watch, which campaigns for lower immigration, has released a report today which argues that official statistics of the level of migration from eastern European countries may be under estimating the actual level of migration by 50,000 a year. Migration Watch compared net migration — the difference between those leaving and those arriving for more than a year — from eight east European states with population estimates of the number of people living in the UK from those countries between 2010 and 2015. Over this period net migration from the eight countries averaged only 40,000 a year but the population estimates rose by 90,000 a year; leading them to conclude that official migration statistics might have been under-estimating the true level of migration.
Separately, the Head of the UK’s Statistical Authority, Sir Andrew Dilnot, has told MP’s that he would consider stripping current estimates of net migration of their official status if an upcoming report shows they have substantially underestimates the true level of migration. Meanwhile, a survey of 24 firms in the hospitality, food and drink and construction sectors conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has found that curbs on EU migration would involve significant costs for these sectors.
Sources: Migration Watch report, The Daily Telegraph, The Times, The Financial Times, Reuters
Spain set to hold re-run elections on 26 June
Following the failure of last ditch talks to reach an agreement on a new government for Spain, the Spanish parliament is expected to be dissolved and new elections called – most likely for 26th June. Current polls suggest the outcome of the election is unlikely to be significantly different from the previous elections.
Sources: EurActiv, Handelsblatt, The Wall Street Journal
UK fined £650m over past decade for misspending EU funds
A report by the UK Parliaments’ Public Accounts Committee, a spending watchdog, has revealed that the UK has been fined £650m by the European Commission over the last decade for misspending EU funds. Overall, the UK has sixth highest level of so-called ‘disallowance’ payments of any country in the EU, as a proportion of the funding it received, the report said. Meg Hillier MP, who chairs the committee, said that “Money intended to support projects and programmes in the UK is instead being lost…. The apparent lack of practical concern about this fact until recently will anger many people, whatever their views on Britain’s EU membership.”
Sources: The Independent, The Guardian
Commercial property companies warn of negative impact of Brexit on investment
Robert Noel, Chief Executive of Land Securities (the UK’s largest commercial property company) has warned that, “Any repricing [after a vote to leave] would be more drastic than after a general election…The demand shock will last longer than usual.” Noel added that in the short term there would be an “immediate drop-off” of demand in London, “rents and values would both fall. It will become a tenants’ market”. He did note that, “In the long term, rents have nothing to do with the economy – they are driven by the balance of supply and demand.” His comments were echoed by the Head of British Land Chris Grigg, who added, “Demand for offices would likely weaken more in Canary Wharf, which is heavily exposed to investment banking, than in the City, which is bolstered by industries such as insurance.”
Source: The Financial Times
Tsipras set to call for EU summit as Greece and creditors once again at impasse over bailout talks
Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem has cancelled the emergency meeting of Eurozone finance ministers pencilled in for tomorrow due to a lack of progress in talks between Greece and its creditors. Disagreements remain over plans for future cuts to automatically kick in if Greece misses its targets. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is expected to call on European Council President Donald Tusk to call an emergency meeting of EU leaders to try and push through an agreement.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Kathimerini, Reuters, EurActiv, Handelsblatt, EUobserver
The post Brexit would cost Britons a month’s salary by 2020 says OECD – while Cruz says Britain would be at “front of the line” for US-FTA after leaving appeared first on Open Europe.