2013-12-23

If you were just watching who comes in and out of an Army basketball game you might think that you accidentally went to the wrong arena. Complete line changes make it seems like a hockey game has broken out. The Black Knights’ Zach Spiker has a 12-man rotation and it’s not uncommon to see five new players take the court at once.

The antics of his fellow Patriot League head coach Fran O’Hanlon at Lafayette aren’t quite the same. The Leopards’ head coach shuffles guys in and out seemingly at every dead ball trying to get favorable match ups on offense and defense. Beset by injuries this season O’Hanlon is trying to maximize the pieces of his depleted roster.

These are the two most extreme cases – in fact they’re more than three standard deviations away from college basketball’s mean – but every coach is constantly substituting during a college basketball. In NCAA Division I teams substitute about four times every five minutes, or an average of 32 times during a full game. It doesn’t have anything to do with team quality or pace either. It’s purely the style of the head coach that really seems to influence.

Let’s start with a simple question. How much do teams substitute during a game? Using the play-by-play logs available on the NCAA.org website I calculated the rate for each team. (*See below for the methodology.) Here’s a histogram of the rounded totals for each team.



As you can see, while the average number of substitutions is 32 times per game, the most common number of subs a team makes in a game is around 29 (22 teams). There’s more weight though towards the high end of the scale, especially due to two outliers, Army and Lafayette. Let’s look at the extremes.

Most Subs Per Game:

Army: 67.8

Lafayette: 65.7

Central Michigan: 56.8

VCU: 53.9

Eastern Illinois: 53.7

Siena: 53.5

Hartford: 51.9

Lipscomb: 49.2

Manhattan: 48.9

Bakersfield: 48.1

Fewest Subs Per Game:

Grand Canyon: 14.5

American: 15.6

Oakland: 17.5

N.C. Central: 18.4

Lamar: 18.5

Texas Southern: 18.5

East Carolina: 18.6

Fordham: 18.7

IUPUI: 19.4

Coppin St.: 19.5

Yes, the Battle of the Bronx featured two teams at complete opposite ends of the spectrum. There’s more than a 30 substitutions per game difference between Steve Masiello and Tom Pecora this season.

Pecora’s options this season though are quite limited. The Rams have been beset by injuries and don’t have that many scholarship players that Fordham feels comfortable having on the court for a long period of time. That probably plays into this number quite a bit. It’s not that Pecora doesn’t want to sub at least a little more, he just can’t. (Grand Canyon – in its first season of Division I – is another example of this phenomenon.)

On the other end of the spectrum what drives a coach to sub a ton isn’t necessarily obvious. Across Division I there’s no statistically significant relationship between tempo and the average number of substitutions. Don’t believe me? Check out this graph. The blob is super impressive.



There’s also no relationship between the number of substitutions a team makes and how good it is (at least based on pythogorean expectation). Some good teams like Syracuse, Stanford and Iowa St. don’t sub much at all. Others, such as VCU, Manhattan, Indiana St. and Indiana are in the Top 45 in terms of the number of subs they make per game and in KenPom’s Top 100. I thought that there might potentially be a bell curve – where teams in the middle of pythagorean expectation would sub quite a bit – but that fails to occur. Basically, there are coaches that play it close to the vest and coaches that want to play a ton of players at all levels of Division I. Here’s the graph showing that relationship:



Overall, it seems as if the number of substitutions a coach makes during a game is largely a matter of personal preference. One thing I have anecdotally noticed is overmatched teams scaling down their rotations in close games. For instance, St. Francis Brooklyn subs about 29 times per game, but only subbed 15 times when they were trying to upset Syracuse. I’d have to do further study to see if there’s some sweet spot where that relationship actually exists.

Army and Lafayette are two huge outliers early in the season. Still, it’s great that if Spiker and O’Hanlon want to shuffle players in and out faster than a Vegas dealer, they can. It’s a unique quality of college basketball.

*Methodology: I built a script that pulls the substitutions for each game using text parsing of the HTML play-by-play logs available on NCAA.org. Here’s the Battle of the Bronx example from earlier. Because the logs are based on StatCrew XML that’s uploaded, the wording is standardized, which makes separating the substitutions a doable endeavor. The entire process takes a few hours (there are a lot of web pages to hit). Also, due to this data collection strategy, games that haven’t been uploaded yet are (obviously) not included in the analysis. The data was as current as possible through Dec. 22 at 5 p.m. I’ve added a table below so you can see where your favorite team ranks and how many games were analyzed.

Team

Total Subs

Games

Avg. Subs

Army

610

9

67.8

Lafayette

657

10

65.7

Central Mich.

625

11

56.8

VCU

701

13

53.9

Eastern Ill.

591

11

53.7

Siena

589

11

53.5

Hartford

623

12

51.9

Lipscomb

541

11

49.2

Manhattan

538

11

48.9

Bakersfield

625

13

48.1

Pacific

521

11

47.4

Winthrop

472

10

47.2

Savannah St.

565

12

47.1

Northern Ill.

422

9

46.9

Tulsa

561

12

46.8

Texas-Arlington

555

12

46.3

Penn

368

8

46.0

Robert Morris

552

12

46.0

Stony Brook

552

12

46.0

Alcorn

459

10

45.9

Wofford

504

11

45.8

Howard

685

15

45.7

Tennessee Tech

635

14

45.4

Mercer

498

11

45.3

Ball St.

360

8

45.0

Georgia

448

10

44.8

Jackson St.

491

11

44.6

Kent St.

488

11

44.4

New Orleans

310

7

44.3

Southern Utah

396

9

44.0

Boston College

482

11

43.8

Indiana St.

481

11

43.7

Wright St.

608

14

43.4

North Dakota

433

10

43.3

Mt. St. Mary’s

431

10

43.1

Stephen F. Austin

474

11

43.1

VMI

467

11

42.5

North Texas

508

12

42.3

UC Riverside

423

10

42.3

Northwestern St.

503

12

41.9

Liberty

502

12

41.8

Indiana

500

12

41.7

DePaul

457

11

41.5

UMKC

457

11

41.5

Florida A&M

456

11

41.5

Auburn

331

8

41.4

Southern California

455

11

41.4

Villanova

453

11

41.2

Monmouth

493

12

41.1

Southern Miss.

526

13

40.5

Quinnipiac

403

10

40.3

George Washington

443

11

40.3

Richmond

440

11

40.0

San Francisco

439

11

39.9

North Dakota St.

518

13

39.8

Illinois

478

12

39.8

SIU Edwardsville

438

11

39.8

Southern Ill.

397

10

39.7

Illinois St.

435

11

39.5

Oregon St.

316

8

39.5

Charleston So.

393

10

39.3

Toledo

432

11

39.3

Jacksonville

391

10

39.1

Georgia St.

428

11

38.9

Florida

426

11

38.7

Fairfield

385

10

38.5

Minnesota

462

12

38.5

South Fla.

385

10

38.5

South Carolina

268

7

38.3

Elon

459

12

38.3

Boston U.

458

12

38.2

Cincinnati

416

11

37.8

Loyola Maryland

378

10

37.8

Belmont

490

13

37.7

Texas

451

12

37.6

Purdue

450

12

37.5

Loyola Chicago

412

11

37.5

George Mason

337

9

37.4

Marquette

448

12

37.3

Radford

373

10

37.3

Portland

446

12

37.2

Akron

260

7

37.1

Buffalo

297

8

37.1

Dayton

408

11

37.1

UMBC

445

12

37.1

North Carolina

406

11

36.9

Mississippi St.

368

10

36.8

Kentucky

439

12

36.6

Chattanooga

438

12

36.5

Bradley

437

12

36.4

LIU Brooklyn

400

11

36.4

Fairleigh Dickinson

471

13

36.2

A&M-Corpus Chris

398

11

36.2

Georgia Tech

432

12

36.0

Northeastern

360

10

36.0

Xaver

431

12

35.9

Green Bay

359

10

35.9

Washington St.

394

11

35.8

North Florida

465

13

35.8

Nevada

393

11

35.7

Valparaiso

464

13

35.7

Gardner-Webb

499

14

35.6

Michigan St.

392

11

35.6

Ohio

356

10

35.6

UT Martin

534

15

35.6

High Point

352

10

35.2

Rhode Island

387

11

35.2

Holy Cross

350

10

35.0

Pittsburgh

419

12

34.9

Colorado

418

12

34.8

Old Dominion

418

12

34.8

Ole Miss

348

10

34.8

Mississippi Val.

347

10

34.7

Creighton

345

10

34.5

UNC Greensboro

448

13

34.5

Seattle

379

11

34.5

Saint Peter’s

310

9

34.4

Maryland

413

12

34.4

Georgetown

344

10

34.4

Maine

344

10

34.4

Virginia Tech

378

11

34.4

Wichita St.

377

11

34.3

Baylor

342

10

34.2

South Carolina St.

342

10

34.2

Saint Louis

442

13

34.0

UC Irvine

438

13

33.7

NJIT

404

12

33.7

Sacred Heart

404

12

33.7

Eastern Mich.

335

10

33.5

Nicholls St.

301

9

33.4

Eastern Ky.

434

13

33.4

Hampton

400

12

33.3

Middle Tenn.

400

12

33.3

Utah Valley

364

11

33.1

Seton Hall

362

11

32.9

Tennessee

329

10

32.9

Sacramento St.

263

8

32.9

Arizona

393

12

32.8

Yale

360

11

32.7

Coastal Caro.

390

12

32.5

Louisiana Tech

390

12

32.5

Tennessee St.

422

13

32.5

Vermont

356

11

32.4

Neb. Omaha

388

12

32.3

South Ala.

387

12

32.3

Tex.-Pan American

419

13

32.2

South Dakota St.

451

14

32.2

New Mexico St.

450

14

32.1

Longwood

384

12

32.0

Memphis

320

10

32.0

Santa Clara

352

11

32.0

Cornell

319

10

31.9

Western Ky.

319

10

31.9

Navy

318

10

31.8

Rider

318

10

31.8

Kansas St.

348

11

31.6

San Jose St.

348

11

31.6

Bryant

379

12

31.6

Princeton

347

11

31.5

Abilene Christian

409

13

31.5

Samford

409

13

31.5

La Salle

345

11

31.4

Bucknell

311

10

31.1

Florida St.

342

11

31.1

Detroit

373

12

31.1

Norfolk St.

373

12

31.1

Virginia

341

11

31.0

Columbia

371

12

30.9

Lehigh

367

12

30.6

Oral Roberts

367

12

30.6

Louisville

336

11

30.5

Towson

397

13

30.5

Col. of Charleston

366

12

30.5

Duke

335

11

30.5

Montana St.

304

10

30.4

UNI

334

11

30.4

Cal St. Fullerton

364

12

30.3

Clemson

332

11

30.2

Northern Ky.

332

11

30.2

Hawaii

271

9

30.1

Youngstown St.

420

14

30.0

Loyola Marymount

359

12

29.9

Duquesne

299

10

29.9

San Diego St.

299

10

29.9

Central Ark.

269

9

29.9

Fla. Atlantic

358

12

29.8

Kennesaw St.

358

12

29.8

Idaho

357

12

29.8

Missouri

327

11

29.7

Wagner

356

12

29.7

Marshall

355

12

29.6

Penn St.

355

12

29.6

UNLV

295

10

29.5

Southern U.

324

11

29.5

St. John’s (NY)

324

11

29.5

Brown

265

9

29.4

Houston

382

13

29.4

Prairie View

323

11

29.4

UC Davis

381

13

29.3

FGCU

322

11

29.3

Oklahoma

351

12

29.3

Oklahoma St.

351

12

29.3

Arkansas

321

11

29.2

Oregon

321

11

29.2

South Dakota

321

11

29.2

Drake

291

10

29.1

Wisconsin

349

12

29.1

UC Santa Barbara

319

11

29.0

UNC Wilmington

376

13

28.9

Davidson

347

12

28.9

St. Francis Brooklyn

347

12

28.9

Wyoming

318

11

28.9

Northern Ariz.

288

10

28.8

UMES

258

9

28.7

Rice

315

11

28.6

Utah St.

315

11

28.6

Kansas

314

11

28.5

Idaho St.

228

8

28.5

Michigan

313

11

28.5

Pepperdine

341

12

28.4

USC Upstate

341

12

28.4

Vanderbilt

284

10

28.4

Dartmouth

255

9

28.3

La.-Monroe

170

6

28.3

St. Mary’s (CA)

255

9

28.3

La.-Lafayette

339

12

28.3

Western Caro.

395

14

28.2

SMU

338

12

28.2

Washington

281

10

28.1

Cal Poly

309

11

28.1

Northwestern

309

11

28.1

Ga. Southern

363

13

27.9

Stetson

334

12

27.8

Missouri St.

306

11

27.8

Ill.-Chicago

333

12

27.8

IPFW

387

14

27.6

Texas Tech

331

12

27.6

Wake Forest

331

12

27.6

Chicago St.

303

11

27.5

Nebraska

303

11

27.5

UCF

246

9

27.3

Morgan St.

272

10

27.2

Iowa

325

12

27.1

Air Force

297

11

27.0

Arizona St.

297

11

27.0

Sam Houston St.

297

11

27.0

UALR

297

11

27.0

UNC Asheville

297

11

27.0

Weber St.

162

6

27.0

N.C. A&T

322

12

26.8

Long Beach St.

321

12

26.8

Montana

214

8

26.8

Albany (NY)

294

11

26.7

William & Mary

267

10

26.7

Western Mich.

293

11

26.6

Citadel

344

13

26.5

Colgate

238

9

26.4

California

290

11

26.4

Texas A&M

290

11

26.4

UMass Lowell

290

11

26.4

Jacksonville St.

395

15

26.3

Western Ill.

316

12

26.3

UTEP

342

13

26.3

Alabama

289

11

26.3

West Virginia

315

12

26.3

San Diego

340

13

26.2

East Tenn. St.

313

12

26.1

Central Conn. St.

286

11

26.0

Tulane

311

12

25.9

Binghamton

258

10

25.8

Cleveland St.

309

12

25.8

Evansville

309

12

25.8

Murray St.

283

11

25.7

Providence

306

12

25.5

Harvard

280

11

25.5

Fresno St.

305

12

25.4

Massachusetts

279

11

25.4

Milwaukee

303

12

25.3

UAB

277

11

25.2

Boise St.

251

10

25.1

Notre Dame

299

12

24.9

Denver

274

11

24.9

Miami (OH)

224

9

24.9

Northern Colo.

199

8

24.9

Niagara

298

12

24.8

UConn

248

10

24.8

BYU

322

13

24.8

Butler

271

11

24.6

New Hampshire

246

10

24.6

Southeastern La.

246

10

24.6

LSU

221

9

24.6

Ark.-Pine Bluff

245

10

24.5

St. Bonaventure

294

12

24.5

Houston Baptist

292

12

24.3

Saint Joseph’s

243

10

24.3

Furman

266

11

24.2

Campbell

290

12

24.2

Alabama A&M

217

9

24.1

Incarnate Word

265

11

24.1

Southeast Mo. St.

264

11

24.0

Portland St.

191

8

23.9

Texas St.

285

12

23.8

Saint Francis (PA)

237

10

23.7

McNeese St.

260

11

23.6

Iona

212

9

23.6

Troy

259

11

23.5

Delaware

282

12

23.5

TCU

255

11

23.2

FIU

294

13

22.6

Gonzaga

271

12

22.6

Ohio St.

270

12

22.5

UCLA

247

11

22.5

James Madison

291

13

22.4

Canisius

268

12

22.3

Delaware St.

245

11

22.3

Miami (FL)

243

11

22.1

Cal St. Northridge

220

10

22.0

Drexel

220

10

22.0

Temple

219

10

21.9

Hofstra

197

9

21.9

Morehead St.

284

13

21.8

Charlotte

239

11

21.7

New Mexico

238

11

21.6

North Carolina St.

237

11

21.5

Utah

236

11

21.5

Iowa St.

171

8

21.4

Appalachian St.

235

11

21.4

Arkansas St.

213

10

21.3

Bethune-Cookman

318

15

21.2

Eastern Wash.

190

9

21.1

Bowling Green

209

10

20.9

Presbyterian

270

13

20.8

Rutgers

249

12

20.8

Grambling

122

6

20.3

Alabama St.

161

8

20.1

Stanford

219

11

19.9

Colorado St.

218

11

19.8

Marist

218

11

19.8

Syracuse

217

11

19.7

Austin Peay

256

13

19.7

UTSA

196

10

19.6

Coppin St.

215

11

19.5

IUPUI

272

14

19.4

Fordham

187

10

18.7

East Carolina

242

13

18.6

Texas Southern

204

11

18.5

Lamar

203

11

18.5

N.C. Central

166

9

18.4

Oakland

228

13

17.5

American

140

9

15.6

Grand Canyon

145

10

14.5

This post is copyright Big Apple Buckets.

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