If you were just watching who comes in and out of an Army basketball game you might think that you accidentally went to the wrong arena. Complete line changes make it seems like a hockey game has broken out. The Black Knights’ Zach Spiker has a 12-man rotation and it’s not uncommon to see five new players take the court at once.
The antics of his fellow Patriot League head coach Fran O’Hanlon at Lafayette aren’t quite the same. The Leopards’ head coach shuffles guys in and out seemingly at every dead ball trying to get favorable match ups on offense and defense. Beset by injuries this season O’Hanlon is trying to maximize the pieces of his depleted roster.
These are the two most extreme cases – in fact they’re more than three standard deviations away from college basketball’s mean – but every coach is constantly substituting during a college basketball. In NCAA Division I teams substitute about four times every five minutes, or an average of 32 times during a full game. It doesn’t have anything to do with team quality or pace either. It’s purely the style of the head coach that really seems to influence.
Let’s start with a simple question. How much do teams substitute during a game? Using the play-by-play logs available on the NCAA.org website I calculated the rate for each team. (*See below for the methodology.) Here’s a histogram of the rounded totals for each team.
As you can see, while the average number of substitutions is 32 times per game, the most common number of subs a team makes in a game is around 29 (22 teams). There’s more weight though towards the high end of the scale, especially due to two outliers, Army and Lafayette. Let’s look at the extremes.
Most Subs Per Game:
Army: 67.8
Lafayette: 65.7
Central Michigan: 56.8
VCU: 53.9
Eastern Illinois: 53.7
Siena: 53.5
Hartford: 51.9
Lipscomb: 49.2
Manhattan: 48.9
Bakersfield: 48.1
Fewest Subs Per Game:
Grand Canyon: 14.5
American: 15.6
Oakland: 17.5
N.C. Central: 18.4
Lamar: 18.5
Texas Southern: 18.5
East Carolina: 18.6
Fordham: 18.7
IUPUI: 19.4
Coppin St.: 19.5
Yes, the Battle of the Bronx featured two teams at complete opposite ends of the spectrum. There’s more than a 30 substitutions per game difference between Steve Masiello and Tom Pecora this season.
Pecora’s options this season though are quite limited. The Rams have been beset by injuries and don’t have that many scholarship players that Fordham feels comfortable having on the court for a long period of time. That probably plays into this number quite a bit. It’s not that Pecora doesn’t want to sub at least a little more, he just can’t. (Grand Canyon – in its first season of Division I – is another example of this phenomenon.)
On the other end of the spectrum what drives a coach to sub a ton isn’t necessarily obvious. Across Division I there’s no statistically significant relationship between tempo and the average number of substitutions. Don’t believe me? Check out this graph. The blob is super impressive.
There’s also no relationship between the number of substitutions a team makes and how good it is (at least based on pythogorean expectation). Some good teams like Syracuse, Stanford and Iowa St. don’t sub much at all. Others, such as VCU, Manhattan, Indiana St. and Indiana are in the Top 45 in terms of the number of subs they make per game and in KenPom’s Top 100. I thought that there might potentially be a bell curve – where teams in the middle of pythagorean expectation would sub quite a bit – but that fails to occur. Basically, there are coaches that play it close to the vest and coaches that want to play a ton of players at all levels of Division I. Here’s the graph showing that relationship:
Overall, it seems as if the number of substitutions a coach makes during a game is largely a matter of personal preference. One thing I have anecdotally noticed is overmatched teams scaling down their rotations in close games. For instance, St. Francis Brooklyn subs about 29 times per game, but only subbed 15 times when they were trying to upset Syracuse. I’d have to do further study to see if there’s some sweet spot where that relationship actually exists.
Army and Lafayette are two huge outliers early in the season. Still, it’s great that if Spiker and O’Hanlon want to shuffle players in and out faster than a Vegas dealer, they can. It’s a unique quality of college basketball.
*Methodology: I built a script that pulls the substitutions for each game using text parsing of the HTML play-by-play logs available on NCAA.org. Here’s the Battle of the Bronx example from earlier. Because the logs are based on StatCrew XML that’s uploaded, the wording is standardized, which makes separating the substitutions a doable endeavor. The entire process takes a few hours (there are a lot of web pages to hit). Also, due to this data collection strategy, games that haven’t been uploaded yet are (obviously) not included in the analysis. The data was as current as possible through Dec. 22 at 5 p.m. I’ve added a table below so you can see where your favorite team ranks and how many games were analyzed.
Team
Total Subs
Games
Avg. Subs
Army
610
9
67.8
Lafayette
657
10
65.7
Central Mich.
625
11
56.8
VCU
701
13
53.9
Eastern Ill.
591
11
53.7
Siena
589
11
53.5
Hartford
623
12
51.9
Lipscomb
541
11
49.2
Manhattan
538
11
48.9
Bakersfield
625
13
48.1
Pacific
521
11
47.4
Winthrop
472
10
47.2
Savannah St.
565
12
47.1
Northern Ill.
422
9
46.9
Tulsa
561
12
46.8
Texas-Arlington
555
12
46.3
Penn
368
8
46.0
Robert Morris
552
12
46.0
Stony Brook
552
12
46.0
Alcorn
459
10
45.9
Wofford
504
11
45.8
Howard
685
15
45.7
Tennessee Tech
635
14
45.4
Mercer
498
11
45.3
Ball St.
360
8
45.0
Georgia
448
10
44.8
Jackson St.
491
11
44.6
Kent St.
488
11
44.4
New Orleans
310
7
44.3
Southern Utah
396
9
44.0
Boston College
482
11
43.8
Indiana St.
481
11
43.7
Wright St.
608
14
43.4
North Dakota
433
10
43.3
Mt. St. Mary’s
431
10
43.1
Stephen F. Austin
474
11
43.1
VMI
467
11
42.5
North Texas
508
12
42.3
UC Riverside
423
10
42.3
Northwestern St.
503
12
41.9
Liberty
502
12
41.8
Indiana
500
12
41.7
DePaul
457
11
41.5
UMKC
457
11
41.5
Florida A&M
456
11
41.5
Auburn
331
8
41.4
Southern California
455
11
41.4
Villanova
453
11
41.2
Monmouth
493
12
41.1
Southern Miss.
526
13
40.5
Quinnipiac
403
10
40.3
George Washington
443
11
40.3
Richmond
440
11
40.0
San Francisco
439
11
39.9
North Dakota St.
518
13
39.8
Illinois
478
12
39.8
SIU Edwardsville
438
11
39.8
Southern Ill.
397
10
39.7
Illinois St.
435
11
39.5
Oregon St.
316
8
39.5
Charleston So.
393
10
39.3
Toledo
432
11
39.3
Jacksonville
391
10
39.1
Georgia St.
428
11
38.9
Florida
426
11
38.7
Fairfield
385
10
38.5
Minnesota
462
12
38.5
South Fla.
385
10
38.5
South Carolina
268
7
38.3
Elon
459
12
38.3
Boston U.
458
12
38.2
Cincinnati
416
11
37.8
Loyola Maryland
378
10
37.8
Belmont
490
13
37.7
Texas
451
12
37.6
Purdue
450
12
37.5
Loyola Chicago
412
11
37.5
George Mason
337
9
37.4
Marquette
448
12
37.3
Radford
373
10
37.3
Portland
446
12
37.2
Akron
260
7
37.1
Buffalo
297
8
37.1
Dayton
408
11
37.1
UMBC
445
12
37.1
North Carolina
406
11
36.9
Mississippi St.
368
10
36.8
Kentucky
439
12
36.6
Chattanooga
438
12
36.5
Bradley
437
12
36.4
LIU Brooklyn
400
11
36.4
Fairleigh Dickinson
471
13
36.2
A&M-Corpus Chris
398
11
36.2
Georgia Tech
432
12
36.0
Northeastern
360
10
36.0
Xaver
431
12
35.9
Green Bay
359
10
35.9
Washington St.
394
11
35.8
North Florida
465
13
35.8
Nevada
393
11
35.7
Valparaiso
464
13
35.7
Gardner-Webb
499
14
35.6
Michigan St.
392
11
35.6
Ohio
356
10
35.6
UT Martin
534
15
35.6
High Point
352
10
35.2
Rhode Island
387
11
35.2
Holy Cross
350
10
35.0
Pittsburgh
419
12
34.9
Colorado
418
12
34.8
Old Dominion
418
12
34.8
Ole Miss
348
10
34.8
Mississippi Val.
347
10
34.7
Creighton
345
10
34.5
UNC Greensboro
448
13
34.5
Seattle
379
11
34.5
Saint Peter’s
310
9
34.4
Maryland
413
12
34.4
Georgetown
344
10
34.4
Maine
344
10
34.4
Virginia Tech
378
11
34.4
Wichita St.
377
11
34.3
Baylor
342
10
34.2
South Carolina St.
342
10
34.2
Saint Louis
442
13
34.0
UC Irvine
438
13
33.7
NJIT
404
12
33.7
Sacred Heart
404
12
33.7
Eastern Mich.
335
10
33.5
Nicholls St.
301
9
33.4
Eastern Ky.
434
13
33.4
Hampton
400
12
33.3
Middle Tenn.
400
12
33.3
Utah Valley
364
11
33.1
Seton Hall
362
11
32.9
Tennessee
329
10
32.9
Sacramento St.
263
8
32.9
Arizona
393
12
32.8
Yale
360
11
32.7
Coastal Caro.
390
12
32.5
Louisiana Tech
390
12
32.5
Tennessee St.
422
13
32.5
Vermont
356
11
32.4
Neb. Omaha
388
12
32.3
South Ala.
387
12
32.3
Tex.-Pan American
419
13
32.2
South Dakota St.
451
14
32.2
New Mexico St.
450
14
32.1
Longwood
384
12
32.0
Memphis
320
10
32.0
Santa Clara
352
11
32.0
Cornell
319
10
31.9
Western Ky.
319
10
31.9
Navy
318
10
31.8
Rider
318
10
31.8
Kansas St.
348
11
31.6
San Jose St.
348
11
31.6
Bryant
379
12
31.6
Princeton
347
11
31.5
Abilene Christian
409
13
31.5
Samford
409
13
31.5
La Salle
345
11
31.4
Bucknell
311
10
31.1
Florida St.
342
11
31.1
Detroit
373
12
31.1
Norfolk St.
373
12
31.1
Virginia
341
11
31.0
Columbia
371
12
30.9
Lehigh
367
12
30.6
Oral Roberts
367
12
30.6
Louisville
336
11
30.5
Towson
397
13
30.5
Col. of Charleston
366
12
30.5
Duke
335
11
30.5
Montana St.
304
10
30.4
UNI
334
11
30.4
Cal St. Fullerton
364
12
30.3
Clemson
332
11
30.2
Northern Ky.
332
11
30.2
Hawaii
271
9
30.1
Youngstown St.
420
14
30.0
Loyola Marymount
359
12
29.9
Duquesne
299
10
29.9
San Diego St.
299
10
29.9
Central Ark.
269
9
29.9
Fla. Atlantic
358
12
29.8
Kennesaw St.
358
12
29.8
Idaho
357
12
29.8
Missouri
327
11
29.7
Wagner
356
12
29.7
Marshall
355
12
29.6
Penn St.
355
12
29.6
UNLV
295
10
29.5
Southern U.
324
11
29.5
St. John’s (NY)
324
11
29.5
Brown
265
9
29.4
Houston
382
13
29.4
Prairie View
323
11
29.4
UC Davis
381
13
29.3
FGCU
322
11
29.3
Oklahoma
351
12
29.3
Oklahoma St.
351
12
29.3
Arkansas
321
11
29.2
Oregon
321
11
29.2
South Dakota
321
11
29.2
Drake
291
10
29.1
Wisconsin
349
12
29.1
UC Santa Barbara
319
11
29.0
UNC Wilmington
376
13
28.9
Davidson
347
12
28.9
St. Francis Brooklyn
347
12
28.9
Wyoming
318
11
28.9
Northern Ariz.
288
10
28.8
UMES
258
9
28.7
Rice
315
11
28.6
Utah St.
315
11
28.6
Kansas
314
11
28.5
Idaho St.
228
8
28.5
Michigan
313
11
28.5
Pepperdine
341
12
28.4
USC Upstate
341
12
28.4
Vanderbilt
284
10
28.4
Dartmouth
255
9
28.3
La.-Monroe
170
6
28.3
St. Mary’s (CA)
255
9
28.3
La.-Lafayette
339
12
28.3
Western Caro.
395
14
28.2
SMU
338
12
28.2
Washington
281
10
28.1
Cal Poly
309
11
28.1
Northwestern
309
11
28.1
Ga. Southern
363
13
27.9
Stetson
334
12
27.8
Missouri St.
306
11
27.8
Ill.-Chicago
333
12
27.8
IPFW
387
14
27.6
Texas Tech
331
12
27.6
Wake Forest
331
12
27.6
Chicago St.
303
11
27.5
Nebraska
303
11
27.5
UCF
246
9
27.3
Morgan St.
272
10
27.2
Iowa
325
12
27.1
Air Force
297
11
27.0
Arizona St.
297
11
27.0
Sam Houston St.
297
11
27.0
UALR
297
11
27.0
UNC Asheville
297
11
27.0
Weber St.
162
6
27.0
N.C. A&T
322
12
26.8
Long Beach St.
321
12
26.8
Montana
214
8
26.8
Albany (NY)
294
11
26.7
William & Mary
267
10
26.7
Western Mich.
293
11
26.6
Citadel
344
13
26.5
Colgate
238
9
26.4
California
290
11
26.4
Texas A&M
290
11
26.4
UMass Lowell
290
11
26.4
Jacksonville St.
395
15
26.3
Western Ill.
316
12
26.3
UTEP
342
13
26.3
Alabama
289
11
26.3
West Virginia
315
12
26.3
San Diego
340
13
26.2
East Tenn. St.
313
12
26.1
Central Conn. St.
286
11
26.0
Tulane
311
12
25.9
Binghamton
258
10
25.8
Cleveland St.
309
12
25.8
Evansville
309
12
25.8
Murray St.
283
11
25.7
Providence
306
12
25.5
Harvard
280
11
25.5
Fresno St.
305
12
25.4
Massachusetts
279
11
25.4
Milwaukee
303
12
25.3
UAB
277
11
25.2
Boise St.
251
10
25.1
Notre Dame
299
12
24.9
Denver
274
11
24.9
Miami (OH)
224
9
24.9
Northern Colo.
199
8
24.9
Niagara
298
12
24.8
UConn
248
10
24.8
BYU
322
13
24.8
Butler
271
11
24.6
New Hampshire
246
10
24.6
Southeastern La.
246
10
24.6
LSU
221
9
24.6
Ark.-Pine Bluff
245
10
24.5
St. Bonaventure
294
12
24.5
Houston Baptist
292
12
24.3
Saint Joseph’s
243
10
24.3
Furman
266
11
24.2
Campbell
290
12
24.2
Alabama A&M
217
9
24.1
Incarnate Word
265
11
24.1
Southeast Mo. St.
264
11
24.0
Portland St.
191
8
23.9
Texas St.
285
12
23.8
Saint Francis (PA)
237
10
23.7
McNeese St.
260
11
23.6
Iona
212
9
23.6
Troy
259
11
23.5
Delaware
282
12
23.5
TCU
255
11
23.2
FIU
294
13
22.6
Gonzaga
271
12
22.6
Ohio St.
270
12
22.5
UCLA
247
11
22.5
James Madison
291
13
22.4
Canisius
268
12
22.3
Delaware St.
245
11
22.3
Miami (FL)
243
11
22.1
Cal St. Northridge
220
10
22.0
Drexel
220
10
22.0
Temple
219
10
21.9
Hofstra
197
9
21.9
Morehead St.
284
13
21.8
Charlotte
239
11
21.7
New Mexico
238
11
21.6
North Carolina St.
237
11
21.5
Utah
236
11
21.5
Iowa St.
171
8
21.4
Appalachian St.
235
11
21.4
Arkansas St.
213
10
21.3
Bethune-Cookman
318
15
21.2
Eastern Wash.
190
9
21.1
Bowling Green
209
10
20.9
Presbyterian
270
13
20.8
Rutgers
249
12
20.8
Grambling
122
6
20.3
Alabama St.
161
8
20.1
Stanford
219
11
19.9
Colorado St.
218
11
19.8
Marist
218
11
19.8
Syracuse
217
11
19.7
Austin Peay
256
13
19.7
UTSA
196
10
19.6
Coppin St.
215
11
19.5
IUPUI
272
14
19.4
Fordham
187
10
18.7
East Carolina
242
13
18.6
Texas Southern
204
11
18.5
Lamar
203
11
18.5
N.C. Central
166
9
18.4
Oakland
228
13
17.5
American
140
9
15.6
Grand Canyon
145
10
14.5
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