People do funny things during the college basketball off season. My personal quest for college basketball understanding took me to the WAC this weekend. The conference is one of the most interesting stories of realignment. Nine disparate parts will come together to form a fascinating whole.
Obviously Big Apple Buckets won’t be covering the conference on a regular basis, but someone should. There are a lot of great stories out there. I’ve been crunching the numbers and here are some bold(ish) predictions for the upcoming season. WAC teams are going to Costa Rica, Europe and China to prepare, but all you need to do is check out these three predictions.
1) New Mexico State will not only win the league title, the Aggies will lose fewer than three WAC games total. — NMSU is certainly the class of WAC. The Aggies went 24-11 last season and were a 13 seed in the NCAA tournament. They ranked 90th in Pomeroy, right behind some team named Florida Gulf Coast that you just might’ve heard about. Now 69% of the team’s possession minutes return – the second best number in the conference. There’s another Bhullar brother coming too. Marvin Menzies’s team will be taller and more talented than any team they come up against in conference play. A hard non-conference schedule that includes UTEP and New Mexico home-and-homes, Colorado State, Gonzaga and Arizona could give NMSU some national recognition before WAC play starts.
2) Grand Canyon won’t finish last. — Amongst the nine teams in this new conference there’s a for-profit university that’s transitioning from Division II. (And one conference isn’t happy about it.) GCU is led by former NBA player Dan Majerle and my guess the talent is going to show up sooner rather than later. Last season the Lopes finished 23-8, but lost an exhibition to Utah State 76-44. USU was the only Division I opponent on the schedule and it’s tough to judge from one game. Just under 50% of the team’s possession minutes are returning for the first transition season. There’s the potential for GCU to be better than either Texas-Pan American or UMKC. Personally, my bet is on UTPA – which will be breaking in new head coach Dan Hipsher – battling with GCU for last place until the end of the season.
3) Chicago State is going to finish in the Top 4. — The Cougars played postseason basketball last season with an 11-22 record after winning the Great West Conference’s final postseason tournament. The record though obscures the fact that CSU has made some progress on the court under former UIC assistant Tracy Dildy. Finally back in an automatic bid conference the Cougars have a veteran roster (eight seniors!) and return almost 80% of their possession minutes. Expect Quinton Pippen to make an even bigger impact during his final season. Dildy will have the Cougars with an above .500 league record and battling with a whole host of teams for the third or fourth spot.
After New Mexico State the WAC will be wide open (dare I say “wacky”) this season. Find a few late night games and enjoy yourself.
WAC Teams By Returning Possession Minutes:
Chicago State – 79.5%
New Mexico St. – 69.2%
Utah Valley- 57.5%
Seattle – 54.9%
Grand Canyon – 48.9%
UMKC – 45.1%
Cal State Bakersfield – 40.7%
Texas-Pan American – 38.3%
Idaho – 36%