A look at the scoring chance summary, on-ice scoring chances, team scoring chances, neutral zone stats, & the expected score from the Canucks 3-1 victory over the Predators .
TEAM SCORING CHANCE TOTALS
Period
Totals
EV
PP
SH
VAN
NSH
VAN
NSH
VAN
NSH
VAN
NSH
1
0
4
0
4
0
0
0
0
2
10
7
7
6
3
0
0
1
3
7
4
4
3
3
1
0
0
OT
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
OVR
17
15
11
13
6
1
0
1
SCORING CHANCE AREA
{*From BroadStreetHockey.com}
Scoring chances are defined as attempts at goal from the area above.
It includes close missed shots (posts and near misses).
It includes deflections if they occur in the area.
They also include shots slightly outside the area if they are difficult.
For example: screened shots and/or chances that force goalies to move (i.e. one-timers).
There is still some subjectivity in this on behalf of the scorer. However, I try to be as consistent as possible from team to team and game to game.
Good News:
The power play created 6 chances and finally got rewarded.
The Canucks came alive in the 2nd half of the game recording a 16-7 SCD edge.
In many ways this game was the reverse of those frustrating Canuck losses.
Coach Tortorella echoed this and said what I have been saying for many posts...
"The team played better during the homestand and lost...then they did in this game."
Such is hockey and its 'puck luck' variance.
Bad News
The Canucks started very very slowly!
Vancouver managed only one chance in the first half of the game. (8-1 SCD NSH).
COMPLETE SCORING CHANCE SUMMARY
Team
Period
Time
Note
Home
Away
State
Home
1
19:26
Hornqvist
3
12
24
27
39
59
1
5
17
20
23
25
5v5
Home
1
8:57
Wilson rush, neat Hamhuis
3
12
27
33
39
59
1
2
8
22
25
33
5v5
Home
1
3:58
Stalsberg - rush 2 on 1
4
11
25
39
57
64
1
3
17
18
20
36
5v5
Home
1
2:19
Smith , one timer, turnover Tanev
7
13
15
39
42
47
1
2
7
8
15
32
5v5
Away
2
18:12
Santorelli rush ms, takeaway H. Sedin
3
11
25
33
39
59
1
3
18
25
32
33
5v5
Home
2
15:50
Fisher , pp one timer
3
11
12
27
39
59
1
2
3
15
25
5v4
Home
2
14:47
Henrdicks rush
4
26
33
39
57
59
1
7
8
18
22
33
5v5
Home
2
12:27
Cullen lost puck battle Kes
4
7
13
15
39
64
1
5
8
17
20
36
5v5
Home
2
11:02
Legwand beat Richardson
11
25
39
42
47
57
1
8
15
18
25
32
5v5
Away
2
8:57
Higgins backhand created by Kesler
4
7
13
15
39
64
1
3
17
18
20
25
5v5
Away
2
8:56
Santorelli rebound
4
7
13
15
39
64
1
3
17
18
20
25
5v5
Away
2
8:45
D. Sedin deflection
3
12
27
33
39
59
1
2
7
8
22
33
5v5
Home
2
7:42
Legwand rush
11
25
39
42
47
57
1
5
15
18
32
36
5v5
Away
2
6:30
Garrison - pp screen Kesler
3
26
28
39
59
1
2
5
17
22
33
4v5
Home
2
4:56
Stalberg rush
3
11
25
39
57
59
1
2
3
15
32
36
5v5
Away
2
4:37
Weise - Richardson puck battle won
3
7
13
15
39
59
1
5
8
15
32
36
5v5
Away
2
4:37
Richardson (Goal) rebound
3
7
13
15
39
59
1
5
8
15
32
36
5v5
Home
2
4:10
Wilson (Goal) bad rebound Luongo
3
12
27
33
39
59
1
5
7
8
22
33
5v5
Away
2
2:06
Booth - ind. effort
4
24
26
28
39
64
1
3
17
18
20
25
5v5
Away
2
1:22
Hamhuis pp one timer , pass H. Sedin
3
26
28
39
59
1
2
5
17
22
33
4v5
Away
2
0:12
Garrison pp pass H. Sedin
26
28
39
59
64
1
2
5
7
17
33
4v5
Home
3
19:11
Wilson ms
12
27
33
39
42
64
1
2
3
17
20
25
5v5
Home
3
17:35
Spalding puck battle lost Bieksa
13
15
28
39
42
47
1
3
15
18
32
36
5v5
Away
3
15:40
Santorelli , puck battle won Kesler
4
11
25
39
57
64
1
5
8
17
20
25
5v5
Away
3
12:24
Kesler (Goal) banl of opposition
4
11
25
39
57
64
1
3
5
17
20
25
5v5
Home
3
10:27
Nystrom
3
24
28
39
59
1
2
5
17
22
33
4v5
Away
3
9:44
D. Sedin pp ms
3
12
13
39
59
1
2
5
17
22
33
4v5
Home
3
7:20
Wilson - off rush
3
12
27
33
39
59
1
2
7
8
22
33
5v5
Away
3
6:41
Kesler pp rush
3
13
24
39
59
1
3
5
17
22
33
4v5
Away
3
5:46
Kesler pp
26
28
39
42
64
1
3
5
17
22
33
4v5
Away
3
4:47
Higgins
3
12
15
33
39
59
1
8
15
18
20
25
5v5
Away
3
3:13
Higgins 2 on 1 rush
4
7
13
15
39
42
1
3
5
17
20
25
5v5
CANUCK ON-ICE SCORING CHANCES FOR AND AGAINST
#
Player
EV
PP
SH
1
LUONGO, ROBERTO
11
13
6
1
0
1
2
HAMHUIS, DAN
21:41
1
5
03:35
4
1
02:27
0
1
3
BIEKSA, KEVIN
16:56
6
4
03:58
2
0
01:13
0
1
5
GARRISON, JASON
18:00
5
4
05:42
6
1
00:09
0
0
7
BOOTH, DAVID
13:54
1
4
02:20
1
0
00:00
0
0
8
TANEV, CHRISTOPHER
20:18
5
7
01:51
0
0
02:01
0
0
15
RICHARDSON, BRAD
13:23
3
5
00:00
0
0
02:10
0
1
17
KESLER, RYAN
14:19
6
4
05:29
6
1
01:13
0
0
18
STANTON, RYAN
13:49
5
5
00:00
0
0
00:56
0
0
20
HIGGINS, CHRIS
15:30
7
4
02:19
0
0
01:13
0
0
22
SEDIN, DANIEL
16:24
1
4
04:58
5
1
00:00
0
0
23
EDLER, ALEXANDER
07:28
0
1
00:00
0
0
00:00
0
0
25
SANTORELLI, MIKE
18:09
8
4
02:19
0
0
02:10
0
1
32
WEISE, DALE
11:41
3
5
00:00
0
0
00:00
0
0
33
SEDIN, HENRIK
15:57
2
4
05:14
6
1
00:00
0
0
36
HANSEN, JANNIK
12:53
2
5
00:00
0
0
00:00
0
0
Mike Santorelli was a stand out again. He led the way with an 8-4 SCD!
Santorelli has been truly amazing. It is very rare that a fringe, low-budget player is able to play Top 6 minutes and dominate the chance battle for 30 NHL games?!
Higgins and Kelser were also strong. They were a combined 13 -8 in ES SCD.
As I said at the beginning of the season, "Of Course, Kesler would be back?!"
HE...WAS...JUST...INJURED!
Also, Kesler is the ONLY player I can find in the league -
- that plays Top (TOI) in all three game states (PP/Pk?ES).
It's really great to see most of Vancouver media eating humble pie.
They have an ignorant habit of evaluating hockey players/staff based on personality.
(Clouiter, AV, Gillis, Kesler, 'early' Luongo, 'later' Luongo, etc...).
The Sedin twins had a rare rough night.
They were ineffective most of the night and they were 2-8 at ES SCD.
Dan Hamhuis also struggled playing versus his old team.
Patrick Hornqvist and Joe Piskula were the best Predators. {who?!}
They had a 9-1 ES SCD.
9+ years in the league and the Nashville "No-Names" are still irrelevant.
Statistical Three Stars.
Ryan Kelser {12-5 total SCD}.
Roberto Luongo {+1.5 EGA}
Mike Santorelli
OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRY SUCCESS RATE (OZE%) (Even Strength)
Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) attempts to identify the skill of gaining puck possession in the opponents defensive zone}. Offensive Zone Entry Success Rate (OZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Possessions Gained ('Carry-ins'+'Dump-wins') / Total Attempts at entry}.
VANCOUVER
NASHVILLE
Period
Successful
Attempted
%
Successful
Attempted
%
1
15
31
48%
15
34
44%
2
14
23
61%
12
23
51%
3
14
21
66%
13
29
45%
Total
43
75
57%
40
86
47%
OZE% confirms the flow that the scoring chance data showed.
We can clearly see Vancouver took the game over in the final two periods.
It's great to see the Canucks with +60% OZE% the mark of an elite team.
The Canucks had a low total of 23 successful 'carry-ins'.
The Canucks had a high 21 successful 'dump ins' (in 40 att.) for a terrific rate of (51%).
Nashville had a high total of 34 'carry ins'.
However, their lack of top off. skill meant they didn't create the expected # of scoring chances.
The Predators had only 6 'dump in' wins out of 38 for a putrid rate of (16%).
The Canucks dominated the puck battles decisively.
DEFENSIVE ZONE EXIT SUCCESS RATE (DZE%) (Even Strength)
Most Advanced stat analysis centers around the idea that possession of the puck is huge key to long term success. {Accordingly, Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) attempts to identify the skill of exiting the defensive zone successful with possession}. Defensive Zone Exit Success Rate (DZE%) is expressed as a percentage-{Successful Exits with possession / Total Exits Attempts}.
VANCOUVER
NASHVILLE
Period
Successful
Attempted
Successful
Attempted
1
14
35
40%
11
36
31%
2
10
21
48%
15
29
52%
3
10
27
37%
12
20
60%
Total
33
83
39%
38
85
45%
Although Nashville was the better team in terms of DZE% -
Both teams were below the average 50% mark.
The Canucks did play with only five D-men the last 40 minutes.
The Canucks consistently below average DZE% clearly shows -
That the team misses a Christian Erhoff type of puck carrying defencemen.
Alexander Edler has really fallen short of his potential in this area.
Of Course, the Predators missed their all-star Stud D-man, BC native - Shea Weber.
As an aside, it seems that the lower the total DZE% -
-The less entertaining the game is to watch.
EXPECTED SCORE
{Expected Score is calculated by assigning an approximate percentage value to each shot attempt. It's goal is to capture a truer picture of the game}.
VANCOUVER
NASHVILLE
TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}
TOTAL EXP. SCORE= ES (PP) {SH}
2.9 = 2.2 (.7) {0}
2.5 = 2.3 (.1) {.1}
Expected Score suggests the most likely outcome was Vancouver 3 - Nashville 2
GOALTENDER RATING - EXPECTED GOALS AGAINST
{Expected Goals Against is calculated by estimating an expected score value to every save made}.
Roberto Luongo had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~ 2.5.
Luongo's rating was a +1.5. (B+)
Marek Mazanec had an Expected Goals Against {EGA} of ~2.9.
Mazanec's rating was -.1 (C)
Yeah! The Canucks won the goaltending battle by ~ 1.6 goals.
TURNOVERS (Even Strength)
Vancouver had a lower total of 16 turnovers.However, Nashville had an anemic forecheck.
The Predators had an high total of 24 turnovers.
I repeat.... Nashville obviously missed Weber badly.
THE DECIDING FACTORS
Luongo was very solid.
It was only the third game that the Canucks held their opponent to 0 or 1 goal against.
Unfortunately, the three teams they shut down were:
The sad sack Leafs, the even worse Sabres...
And, the Tooth-less Predators.
It should be obvious to enlightend Canuck fans that -
The team can dominate offensively even versus good teams (in terms of scoring chances).
....especially if their Power play kicks in to gear!
However, and conversely, they have yet to demonstrate that they can...
...shut the door defensively, or, with top goaltending versus strong teams.
The Power play (as I predicted) 'has' come alive 6 for 6...and counting!
The next two games ARE very important. Phoenix, and to a lesser extent Colorado, are my two picks to fall off their 'hot' pace. Vancouver simply must win the seasons series with these two teams. If they do this the research says they will improve their playoff chances significantly.! Phoenix will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. It IS virtually a MUST win! (With 50+ games to go?! :) ) Will we see the NHL refs favor PHX? - And, work hard to help out a new, sunbelt US owner?...Stay Tuned!
Feel free to comment below!
Also, if you have any questions about advanced stats and would prefer to email me you can reach me at danthestatman1@gmail.com. I would be happy to try and answer them! I learned this way when I started!
SHOTS ATTEMPTED CHART
(courtesy of extraskater.com)