Republican Scott Brown was looking for the second major upset of his political career today as the Massachusetts transplant took on a New Hampshire Democratic icon, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the first woman in U.S. history to serve as a governor and a senator.
The Brown-Shaheen race is one of 10 being closely watched nationally as Republican try to take back majority control of the Senate, now controlled, 55 to 45, by the Democrats.
Brown, 55, shocked the political world by beating Martha Coakley in a 2010 special election for the seat held by the late Ted Kennedy, only to lose to Elizabeth Warren in 2012. Now he looks to defeat another woman – and if he doesn‘t, he will be the first Senate candidate to lose to two women in two states.
Stressing that he was born in the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard and that he spent much of his childhood on New Hampshire’ Seacoast, Brown and his wife Gail moved from Wrentham, Mass., full-time to their summer home in Rye late last year.
It quickly became clear that he intended to take on the former three-term governor and Senate freshman Shaheen. He did not formally become a candidate until the spring – and the Senate race has been at the top of the state’s political agenda ever since.
Even though he had a primary battle against former Sen. Bob Smith and former state Sen. Jim Rubens, Brown kept his focus on Shaheen throughout the summer. And she kept her focus on him.
Brown painted Shaheen as a rubber stamp for the unpopular President Obama, and for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Shaheen, 67, stressed her deep roots in, and familiarity with, the state – having lived here since 1973. She portrayed Brown as an opportunistic tool of “Big Oil,” the conservative billionaire Koch brothers and Wall Street, who, after losing in Massachusetts, went office-shopping and conveniently decided on New Hampshire.
She repeatedly declared that New Hampshire should not be anyone’s “consolation prize.”
It was also the most expensive race in state history when both candidates an outside spending are counted.
Besides candidate spending totaling about $7 million by Brown and about $13 million by Shaheen, outside special interest spending on the race was about $30 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics’ OpenSecrets.org. One study showed there were more than 17,000 television ad aired, most – though not all — of them negative.
According to the CRP, spending has totaled $3.6 million in favor of Brown and $13.8 million to oppose him. Outside spending in favor of Shaheen has totaled $1.2 million, and $9.9 million against her.
As the returns roll in tonight, all eyes will be on key swing areas of the state, and on key areas that have been the strongholds of each party.
Manchester, for instance, with his mostly Democratic registration, should go to Shaheen, but the key will be by how much. A close battle there by Brown could forecast a long night for the incumbent.
Shaheen lost the City of Manchester by about 2,500 votes in 2002 on her way to losing to John E. Sununu, but then won it easily in 2008 as part of the Obama-led Democratic sweep.
Nashua is usually very late with its returns and could play a huge role in the outcome. It is a mostly Democratic city, but its location on the Massachusetts border has made it a target for the Brown forces. It is also the home of Brown’s most influential supporter, Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
Brown is expected to, and must, do well throughout the area of the southern tier nearest to the Bay State, in GOP communities, such as Salem, Hudson, Windham, Pelham and Londonderry.
Shaheen should be strong in Portsmouth, and of course in the Dover-Durham area near her Madbury home, while Brown should do well in his hometown, Rye, which is a Republican stronghold, as well North Hampton and Hampton Falls.
The Rochester area should be a bellwether. It went to Sununu by a close margin in 2002, but to Shaheen easily in 2008.
Shaheen is expected to be strong in Concord and Hopkinton, the Upper Valley, Keene and much of Cheshire County, as well as the northern part of the state, including the North Country itself.
Brown must do well in most of the Lakes Region, and back in the southern part of the state, he must rack up victories in the Manchester suburbs, such as Bedford, Goffstown, Auburn, Candia and Hooksett.
Derry, while mostly Republican, is also a good barometer for how the voting will go. In 2002, Sununu defeated Shaheen there by 1,100 votes on his way to victory, but in 2008, Sununu’s win in Derry was a mere 130 votes.
Many will be comparing tonight’s results to 2010, when Ayotte handily defeated then U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes as part of a GOP mid-term sweep. But given Shaheen’s strength in the state and Brown being a relative newcomer, the two races are not nearly commensurate.
Ayotte, after all, won that race, 60 to 36 percent.
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