Six countries including Nigeria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, South Sudan, and Syria have been listed as coming tops among countries with conflict severity index by renowned risk rating agency, Maplecroft. Maplecroft’s Conflict Severity Index reports that 11 per cent of countries have seen a significant decrease in conflict compared with the last update of the index in October 2013, while 24 per cent of countries experienced a measurable increase in the number of conflict related fatalities. The Conflict Severity Index assesses the level of conflict in a country.
It includes manifest or non-violent conflict at the lowrisk end of the scale, to political violence, crisis and war at the extreme-risk end of the scale.
To this end, the index considers data on conflict-related deaths and casualties (including civilian deaths), levels of societal violence and political differences. According to the rating agency, “Central African Republic is joined at the top of the rankings by Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, and Syria (all 1st), reflecting high levels of lethal conflict across these geographies.”
The agency had also given Nigeria an ‘extreme’ risk rating about a months ago, saying the country received an ‘extreme risk’ in its conflict and political violence index (CPVI) for the fifth year running due to persistent insecurity, including increasing risks of kidnapping and piracy.
Maplecroft is the world’s leading global risk analytics, research and strategic forecasting company. It offers an unparalleled portfolio of risk indices, interactive maps, expert country risk analysis, risk calculators, scorecards and dashboards. These technological solutions identify emerging trends, business opportunities and risks to investments and supply chains worldwide.
Nigeria has been in an almost permanent state of crisis since independence in 1960, and doubts remain over the country’s ability to survive as a single, viable state. Maplecroft’s Country Risk Report for Nigeria offers investors the insight they need to navigate the country’s rapidly evolving business environment. It includes in-depth analysis of risks relating to governance, the economy, legal and regulatory developments, security, human rights, labour standards and the environment.
The report is especially relevant to new company entrants or existing businesses across all sectors. There is widespread insecurity across the north-east, where fundamentalist Islamist group, Boko Haram, is waging a deadly insurgency. The high-profile kidnapping of school girls in April 2014 has highlighted the ineptitude of the security forces as well as the regional implications of insecurity.
The report also highlights ethnic clashes relating to land ownership disputes, which are prevalent in the ‘Middle Belt’ region where Muslim and Christian communities live in close proximity. Likewise, the Niger Delta continues to be beset by militant and criminal activities. There appears to be no immediate prospect of cutting the links between religion and politics, a recurring theme throughout Nigeria’s history.
Last Wednesday, another terrorist group, Biafra Zionist Movement, attempted to seize the Enugu State Radio and Television stations, property of the Enugu State government. Three people including a police sergeant were said to have died during a shootout between men of the Nigeria Police Force and the invaders.
According to the Chief Executive Officer, Maplecroft, Mr. Alyson Warhurst, “Societal unrest and its repression by state security forces acting with impunity are early indicators of political risk – including societal-induced regime change and resource nationalism – and have the ability to destabilise the business environment readily. More frequent risk monitoring is therefore becoming a business imperative.”
Meanwhile, another risk assessor, Coface, said it would give Nigeria a surprise rating upgrade soon, stressing that things were looking up for the country despite the atmosphere of crises. African Insurance Review quoted the Chief Economist, Group Economic Research Department at Coface, Yves Zlotowski, as saying that the country’s risk status would be upgraded from ‘D’ to ‘C’, despite persistent terror warnings and bomb threats. Zlotowski admitted that there had been “a lot of internal debate” surrounding the upgrade. “Governance is undoubtedly, bad, and the security situation is awful,” he said.
The post Doing business: Nigeria, Iraq, lead in lethal conflicts appeared first on New Telegraph.