Black Friday sales this year are likely to top £2bn, say analysts, as shoppers hunt for bargains ahead of an expected rise in prices in 2017.
The fall in the value of the pound is forecast to push up the prices of imported goods next year.
Initial reports suggest that spending was up on last year, despite some sales starting days ago.
But advice services say many discounts are also available at other times, when consumer finances are less stretched.
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The Nationwide Building Society said purchases by its customers were up 40% on a year ago.
Black Friday sales last year were about £1.9bn, but retailers are now stretching the one-day shopping extravaganza over several days.
Amazon and some supermarkets started their sales up to 10 days ago.
Nationwide said that spending was about 62% higher than a normal Friday and, by Thursday, the discount retailing site TopCashback reported a 30% increase in spending over last year.
While more than £2bn is expected to be spent on Friday alone, the total for the next four days is forecast to rise to more than £4bn once the weekend and Cyber-Monday – an online-only event – are included.
Experts say that the shopping cycle has changed in recent years, with Christmas consumer spending stretching for many weeks.
“The Black Friday promotions at the end of November are the start of a longer, more drawn-out peak season, which begins with most of the activity online and then moves in-store as we get closer and closer to Christmas day,” said Richard Jenkings, data analyst at credit reference agency Experian.
Increasingly, Black Friday too is becoming an internet bonanza. According to the online retailing association IMRG, well over half the spend on Black Friday will be done online.
Are you heading to the shops for Back Friday? You can email haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk with your experiences.
Warnings have been issued to shoppers over the dangers of getting carried along by Black Friday marketing.
“The key is to make sure you only buy items you were looking for anyway, and not because you fall for the marketing hype,” said Gary Caffell, from Moneysavingexpert.
“There are some great deals out there but make sure you do your own price comparisons, as prices can fluctuate wildly from store to store – don’t just take a retailer’s word for it that something is a bargain.”
He pointed to cut-price vacuum cleaners, which can already be bought cheaper online.
This can be particularly difficult for people experiencing mental health problems, who sometimes find it harder to resist impulses
Katie Evans, Money and Mental Health Policy Institute
Andy Webb, of the Money Advice Service, said: “A third of people felt pressure to spend more than they could afford during the whole of Christmas. That leads into debt.
“The question you have to ask is: ‘Can you afford it?’ We know a lot of these things are at the same price or cheaper throughout the year. Black Friday is not the biggest sale that is going.”
For some, this can have a serious impact on their wellbeing.
“Short-term discounts encourage consumers to purchase immediately, rather than reflecting on whether you really need to buy a product and if you can afford it,” said Katie Evans, head of research and policy at the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute.
“This can be particularly difficult for people experiencing mental health problems, who sometimes find it harder to resist impulses and might find that shopping makes them feel better, at least for a short while.”
The institute is calling for new rules to allow people to opt out of email marketing or to set a daily spending limit in online shops.
Prices to rise?
Looking ahead, the cost of imported items are forecast to rise, as the fall in the value of the pound after the EU referendum in June finally feeds through into retail prices.
AO World chief executive John Roberts said: “Obviously, with the Brexit currency movements, prices are going to go up in the first quarter of next year. The vast majority of all Black Friday offers were negotiated and in place before [the] Brexit [vote].”
Argos boss John Rogers said he “can’t rule out price increases” next year because of the falling pound.
Fashion retailer Next said that it had managed its currency exposure so that it could keep prices down until January: “Although it is very early in the buying cycle, we currently estimate that cost prices in 2017/18 will rise by less than 5% on like-for-like products.”
Consultancy group PwC estimated that one-in-four UK adults in the country will spend on average £203 this Black Friday.
Black Friday ‘questionable’
Even so, Paul Martin, KPMG’s UK Head of Retail said: “For retailers, it has always been questionable whether Black Friday really benefits them in the long-run, and in the current environment of rising costs and squeezed margins – perhaps it’s even more so.”
Asda opted out of Black Friday in 2015 and again this year following chaotic scenes among bargain-crazed customers in 2014. Next, Ikea and fashion chain Jigsaw have also declared themselves Black Friday refuseniks.
Deception
Jigsaw chief executive Peter Ruis called it “a complete and utter deception”. He said: “In fashion over 50% to 60% of Black Friday purchases are returned. It stays in the supply chain two or three weeks, churns around and everyone’s lost the chance to sell it, and it just goes straight into the sale at 50% to 60% off.
“It is a double whammy: loss of profit, loss of margin, and that product just sitting around in supply chains,” he said.
However, Mike France, co-founder of Christopher Ward, a premium watch retailer, wrote in the Retail Gazette, said: “Breaking ranks with the phenomenon in isolation is both risky and potentially dangerous to a brand – as Asda found out to its detriment last year.
“The reality is that swimming against such a forceful current will see you miss out on what has become the new peak.”
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