2013-10-16

Middle-skill jobs are in the same camp as green jobs, STEM jobs, and other groups of occupations that garner lots of attention: They can be defined many ways, by many rubrics. Regardless of the definition, however, it’s clear that middle-skill, or middle-wage, jobs have been in decline for years.

New research from the Federal Reserve indicates the share of middle-skill jobs in the workforce has dropped from 25% in 1985 to just above 15% today, part of the hollowing-out effect that David Autor of MIT has documented. And as our chart above shows, middle-wage jobs — those that pay between $13.84 and $21.13 per hour, as defined by the National Employment Law Project — sustained much deeper cuts during the 2008-2009 recession than high- and low-wage jobs.

But not every middle-skill, middle-wage job is now extinct because of automation and offshoring. A subset of mid-wage manufacturing jobs (along with jobs in energy, health care, and other sectors) are among the healthiest post-recession occupations in the U.S. Furthermore, in a handful of states (Wyoming, Iowa, North Dakota, Michigan), mid-wage fields account for more than or close to 40% of all new jobs since 2010.

Mid-Skill or Mid-Wage?

For our analysis, we used middle-wage jobs instead of middle-skill jobs (i.e., those that require less than a bachelor’s degree but more than a high school degree). This is because some occupations that the BLS has assigned a mid level of education (e.g., registered nurses) often require a higher level of education by employers.

This methodology is similar to the one used by Autor is his 2010 study. For a brief synopsis of why Autor used wage to approximate skill, see here.

Share of New Jobs in Mid-Wage Category

In the U.S., a quarter of all new jobs since 2010 fall in the mid-wage range. That’s a slightly smaller share than high-wage jobs (29%), while almost half (46%) of new jobs have been low-wage.



No state has stood out more than Wyoming, where 45% of new jobs since 2010 have been mid-wage — well ahead of Iowa (37%), North Dakota (36%), and Michigan (35%). Texas (25%) and California (23%) have created the most total new middle-wage jobs in the nation, but they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of the share of all new jobs.

At the bottom, Rhode Island is the only state that’s lost middle-wage jobs the last few years. Coincidentally, it’s also seen a decline in high-wage jobs, meaning all of its job growth has been in occupations that pay $13.83 or lower.

Meanwhile, Mississippi (10%) and New York (13%) have the lowest share of new mid-wage jobs among states that have seen job increases.

Generally, states with higher cost of living are at the bottom in mid-wage job growth, with the exception of Mississippi. (It’s worth noting 80% of new jobs in Mississippi have been low-wage).

State Name

2013 Jobs

New Jobs Since 2010 (Total)

New Jobs Since 2010 (Mid-Wage)

Share of New Jobs Since 2010 (Mid-Wage)

Source: QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees & Self-Employed - EMSI 2013.3 Class of Worker

Wyoming

319,672

7,607

3,411

45%

Iowa

1,689,811

58,987

21,902

37%

North Dakota

492,918

71,607

25,970

36%

Michigan

4,391,882

214,075

74,536

35%

Arizona

2,805,158

155,430

53,115

34%

Alaska

388,436

9,790

3,296

34%

New Mexico

913,612

13,215

4,315

33%

Oklahoma

1,786,664

66,837

21,153

32%

Minnesota

3,007,618

128,418

39,433

31%

Pennsylvania

6,215,891

123,999

37,616

30%

Vermont

356,643

10,494

3,158

30%

Hawaii

742,002

27,637

8,262

30%

Kentucky

2,038,143

72,485

21,562

30%

South Carolina

2,085,991

83,597

24,601

29%

Wisconsin

2,989,657

60,737

17,661

29%

Louisiana

2,143,399

64,696

18,736

29%

Ohio

5,585,543

159,403

44,960

28%

Indiana

3,160,881

146,127

40,050

27%

Kansas

1,530,232

35,131

9,471

27%

Colorado

2,668,013

153,362

40,122

26%

Nebraska

1,059,262

28,648

7,430

26%

Texas

12,485,450

904,317

226,927

25%

Tennessee

3,061,383

144,846

34,657

24%

Utah

1,408,139

112,919

26,974

24%

California

17,523,783

913,413

208,707

23%

Massachusetts

3,679,152

149,301

33,836

23%

Oregon

1,908,085

66,034

14,817

22%

North Carolina

4,564,124

202,606

45,008

22%

Georgia

4,449,841

182,068

40,297

22%

Montana

511,880

18,730

4,122

22%

Maryland

2,881,471

103,598

22,439

22%

Nevada

1,260,218

47,951

10,160

21%

Idaho

724,549

26,236

5,250

20%

South Dakota

472,376

12,811

2,476

19%

District of Columbia

775,185

23,111

4,378

19%

Washington

3,379,817

140,985

26,352

19%

West Virginia

789,978

22,278

4,134

19%

Arkansas

1,302,641

15,044

2,652

18%

Illinois

6,243,694

178,096

30,999

17%

Missouri

2,988,014

62,799

10,803

17%

Maine

672,708

2,998

508

17%

Delaware

453,952

12,810

2,133

17%

Florida

8,370,099

373,274

61,868

17%

Alabama

2,084,701

22,075

3,605

16%

Connecticut

1,831,478

44,701

7,161

16%

Virginia

4,175,545

133,765

19,079

14%

New Jersey

4,211,361

104,096

14,478

14%

New Hampshire

702,271

13,694

1,877

14%

New York

9,602,939

325,490

43,591

13%

Mississippi

1,255,654

22,961

2,236

10%

Rhode Island

503,723

5,140

-46

-

Total

150,645,641

6,080,429

1,502,652

25%

Mid-Skill, Mid-Wage Occupations on the Rise

The list of still-vibrant middle-wage jobs is long, and most typically require on-the-job training, work experience, or short-term certificates and degrees that community colleges specialize in. This includes customer service representatives (up 6%) and heavy/tractor-trailer truck drivers (up 7%), two occupations that have each added more than 118,000 estimated jobs since the start of 2010. Both offer solid, mid-tier earnings ($14.91 and $18.14 median hourly earnings, respectively).

Other examples of strong mid-wage occupations:

Machinists have the best combination of total jobs added from 2010 to 2013 (nearly 50,000) and percentage job growth (14%). This occupation is just one of several on-the-rebound production fields: computer controlled machine tool operators (17% growth since 2010), welders (11%), and inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers (8%) have also performed well post-recession.

The fastest-growing mid-wage jobs are clustered in energy fields, specifically oil and gas: roustabouts (38% growth since 2010), oil, gas, and mining service unit operators (38%), helpers of extraction workers (28%), and extraction workers, all other (22%). Next in percentage growth since 2010 are computer controlled machine tool operators (17%).

These occupations are the cream of the crop in terms of recent job growth, and there are dozens of other viable mid-wage professions.

Joshua Wright is an editor at EMSI, an Idaho-based economics firm that provides data and analysis to workforce boards, economic development agencies, higher education institutions, and the private sector. He manages the EMSI blog and is a freelance journalist. Contact him here.

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