‘Jobocalypse: The End of Human Jobs and How Robots Will Replace Them’ by Ben Way (Create Space; June 21, 2013)
Table of Contents:
i. Introduction/Synopsis
PART I: THE CURRENT STATE OF ROBOTICS (AND WHERE IT IS HEADING)
1. What Robots Are Good At
2. Where Robots Are Improving
a. Advancements in Power and Mobility
b. Advancements in Sensing Technology and Artificial Intelligence
3. Drones (UAVs)
PART II: ROBOTS AND THE WORLD OF WORK (NOW AND INTO THE FUTURE)
Section 1: The Supply Chain, and Other Odd Jobs
4. Custodial, Maintenance and Maid Services
5. The Supply Chain: From Warehousing to Shipping (and the Driverless Revolution)
a. Warehousing
b. Shipping and Delivery Services
c. The Driverless Revolution
6. Retail
7. Security Services
Section 2. Pre-Supply Chain: From Manufacturing to Resource Extraction
8. Manufacturing and 3D printing
a. Manufacturing
b. 3D Printing
9. Primary Industries: Farming and Mining
a. Farming
b. Mining
Section 3. Consumer-Facing Services and Professions
10. Restaurant and Hospitality
11. Health Care
a. Doctors
b. Nurses and Elder Care Workers
12. Education
13. The Military
14. Policing and Law Enforcement
PART III: THE FALLOUT AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ROBOTIC AGE
15. Jobs Saved and Created Vs. Jobs Lost & The Net Effect
a. What Jobs Are Safe?
b. The Net Loss of Human Jobs
16. The Consequences: Two Possible Scenarios
a. The Unhappy Scenario
b. The Happier Scenario
17. Conclusion: How the Robotics Age Will Unfold
i. Introduction/Synopsis
Sophisticated, humanoid robots as featured in such movies as RoboCop and Terminator may not be with us just yet—but we shouldn’t let this fool us into thinking that we are not already in the incipient stages of the robot age. The fact is that rudimentary robots and other automated technologies have already been with us for several years, and advances in computing power, artificial intelligence and materials are even now quickly scaling up the range and functionality that our robots are capable of.
RoboCop and Terminator notwithstanding, robots already have a significant impact on our lives, and this impact will only increase as the technology advances. And one of the biggest impacts here has to do with the world of work, and the economy more generally. Specifically, robots have already shown themselves to be capable of numerous jobs traditionally carried out by people, and as the technology advances the range and sophistication of the jobs subsumed by robots will only grow.
Now, the story of technology taking over human jobs is nothing new. Indeed, the loss of jobs has occurred every time a major new technology has been introduced, from the plow, to the power loom, to the steam engine, to the computer. In the past, though, the technologies that have usurped human jobs have also led to the growth of new jobs (normally requiring more advanced skills) that have ultimately offset, and even outstripped, the jobs that were lost originally.
With robotic technology, though, there is something new under the sun. Specifically, many of the new jobs that robotics will create will themselves be capable of being carried out by robots—largely due to the sophistication of the technology. What’s more, as robotics advances, the range of new jobs that are capable of being carried out by robots will only grow. I think we can see where this is going: fewer and fewer jobs for people.
In his new book Jobocalypse: The End of Human Jobs and How Robots Will Replace Them entrepreneur and writer Ben Way takes a look at how robots have already come to replace many human jobs, and how coming advances promise to intensify this trend and extend it to virtually every industry we can think of from custodial and maintenance services; to the supply chain; to transportation; to security services; to manufacturing; to construction; to farming and fishing; to mining; to retail and hospitality; to health care; to education; to the military and policing; and even the shadow economy.
Though Way does not predict that robots will come to replace all human jobs (the creative industries, as well as jobs that require strategic planning and decision-making should be safe for some time to come) he does predict that upwards of 70% of traditional jobs will be replaced by robots within the next 30 years. On the bright side, this new efficiency will cause the prices of goods and services to plummet. On the not so bright side, there will be fewer and fewer employment opportunities through which to afford goods and services even at cut rate prices.
There are two possible outcomes here, according to the author. The first possibility is that mass unemployment will take hold, and the growing rift between the rich and the poor will continue to deepen, until massive social unrest becomes a real threat (not so good). The second possibility (considerably better) is that governments will step in and ensure that those who do lose their jobs are given the training they need to land the few new jobs that emerge, while everyone who does continue to hold a job will take a cut in their hours, thus allowing for the continuance of full employment, or the next thing to it.
Whichever route we, and our governments, decide to take will determine how the robotic age will unfold. Should we choose the former we can expect a robotic dystopia; should we choose the latter we can expect a better world where people are freed up to spend an increasing share of their time in creative and recreational pursuits of their choosing.
*To check out the book at Amazon.com, or purchase it, please click here: Jobocalypse: The End of Human Jobs and How Robots will Replace Them
What follows is a full executive summary of Jobocalypse: The End of Human Jobs and How Robots Will Replace Them by Ben Way.
PART I: THE CURRENT STATE OF ROBOTICS (AND WHERE IT IS HEADING)
Some robots are already fairly sophisticated, but there are still a few things that are holding them back from achieving the status of a RoboCop or a Terminator (though, as we shall see, these barriers are being eroded quickly). Let’s begin by way of looking at what robots can do, and where they are improving even now.
1. What Robots Are Good At
Currently, robots have the computing power and range of mobility to make them very good at performing relatively straightforward tasks in a controlled and predictable environment (loc. 150, 156). Thus robots are already quite capable of performing simple tasks like floor cleaning, lawn-mowing, pool-cleaning, and manufacturing goods (all of which we shall encounter below).
Nevertheless, because robots have, until now, been relatively expensive, this has limited the kinds of straightforward tasks that they are economically feasible for. When it comes to manufacturing, for instance, robots have mainly been limited to manufacturing big ticket items, like cars (loc. 150).
Here’s a short clip of robots at work manufacturing a BMW:
Though robots are still relatively expensive, the cost of our current generation of robots is dropping quickly, and thus we are on the cusp of seeing them used much more widely for simple tasks—including manufacturing (more on this soon).
2. Where Robots Are Improving
The robots of the future will have the potential to do far more than simple tasks like manufacture goods, though. This will be made possible by coming advances in two areas in particular: 1) advancements in power systems and mobility technology; and 2) advancements in sensing technology and artificial intelligence. Let us now take a look at the advancements currently being made in these areas, and those that are on the horizon.
a. Advancements in Power and Mobility
We shall begin with the power and mobility side of things. Currently, robots rely mainly on electric motors for their power source—whether built in, or housed separately (loc. 172). Now, the most advanced robots to date have been able to achieve a fairly impressive range of mobility and versatility with these motors. This can be attested to by the following videos, that feature 2 creations of the robotic company Boston Dynamics (first the Big Dog robot, and second the Atlas robot).
Big Dog:
Atlas (the live demonstration begins at the 45 second mark):
As impressive as these robots are, they still have several limitations when it comes to both mobility and versatility. And the reason for this is that electric motors just aren’t compact, efficient and powerful enough to allow robots to achieve the kind of full mobility and versatility that we would hope for (loc. 172).
Nevertheless, advances are currently being made that promise to change this—and soon. The fields in which these advances are being made include battery technology; fuel cells; computing efficiency; and especially new materials that operate with new and improved power actuators (loc. 169-81).
With regards to this last, advancements here promise to address both power and versatility issues. As Way explains, “in order to try and solve the limitations of actuators, some very clever scientists are working with advanced materials. We now have artificial muscles that can contract in the presence of electro-active polymers, basically electricity, or heat. Even though some of these new technologies can deliver relatively strong responses at low energy levels, the amount they actually contract is not enough to perform useful work… Humanity is a good ten years away from this new technology’s incorporation into products, but when it is entirely incorporated by then, the face of robotics will be changed forever” (loc. 181).
b. Advancements in Sensing Technology and Artificial Intelligence
So robots are in the process of becoming much more mobile and versatile, but what about the sensing and intelligence side of things? These skills are needed so that robots can operate in changing and unpredictable environments, which is where they currently have the most difficulty (loc. 150). However, these technologies too are advancing quickly (loc. 153).
Just consider Google’s driverless car. This incredible product of technology is already sensing its environment and reacting to it in real-time at a fairly high level. Take the car’s sense apparatus, for starters. As Way explains, “when Google began to develop the self-driving car, the company needed a technology with more accurate vision to gather precise images. Google opted to use LIDAR, a fancy acronym representing a laser that finds objects in the range of a 360 degree arc. The full form of it is ‘Light Detection and Ranging’ or ‘Laser Imaging Detection and Ranging’. Think about LIDAR as an extremely fast spinning lighthouse that illuminates everything in its path, and carries the cost of several thousand digital cameras” (loc. 162).
Given the track record of Google’s driverless car—“Google’s driverless cars have been whizzing around California for the past few years and have clocked up 300,000 miles without any crashes” (loc. 443)—we can see that this sensing technology is already very advanced. But, of course, it’s not just the car’s senses that have allowed it to stay accident-free through so many miles. The car also reacts to what it sees intelligently, and in real time.
Here’s an excellent video of Google’s driverless car in action:
Google’s driverless car demonstrates that the feats of computer-generated sensing, as well as reacting intelligently to a changing and unpredictable environment in real-time are already possible (indeed they are already fairly advanced) (loc. 163). Thus we are really just waiting for further advances in computing power to ratchet up these capabilities even more, and to make them more affordable (loc. 163). And what with computing power continuing to double every two years (just as Gordon Moore predicted in 1965 [loc. 144]), it appears that these advances may be here sooner rather than later (loc. 164).
In short, then, the obstacles currently standing in the way of fully mobile, versatile, sensing and intelligent robots are in the process of being entirely dismantled, and when this process is complete the robot age will be in full flight.
3. Drones (UAVs)
And speaking of flight, let us not forget UAVs, or drones. Drones are also already very advanced, and are even now being used in several applications, most notably in the military. As Way explains, “you only have to take a look at the rise of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or, as they’re more commonly known, drones, to realize that the future of robotic warfare is already upon us. The rapid development of UAVs has been unprecedented and quickly evolving. The benefits of UAVs are undeniable; they started off just as eyes in the sky that allowed spying on unsuspecting enemies for extended periods of time, but soon developed into more complex forms, paralleling the chronological pattern of all other robotics. UAVs can now sport a whole host of complicated weaponry, land and take off from extremely short runways, and will soon be able to take off vertically or stay airborne indefinitely through the use of solar energy and batteries” (loc. 531).
Until now, drones have largely been confined to the military sector; however, this is changing quickly as the technology advances and becomes cheaper and cheaper. We will be looking at many of the new applications of drones below, but for a sneak peak at drones in their current incarnation, I highly recommend you check out the following video.
Now that we have seen what robots are already capable of, and where they are likely heading in the near future, we are ready to see what impact they are currently having in the world of work, and how the coming advances are likely to add to this impact.
We will now take a look at how this process may unfold in a number of different industries—beginning with the lower-skilled industries first, and extending up through higher and higher skilled industries.
PART II: ROBOTS AND THE WORLD OF WORK (NOW AND INTO THE FUTURE)
Section 1: The Supply Chain, and Other Odd Jobs
4. Custodial, Maintenance and Maid Services
Enormous numbers of people—often illegal immigrants—are currently paid to clean work spaces and industrial sites (loc. 308-24). These people will be some of the quickest to lose their jobs. It is not that robots will immediately be able to accomplish all of the things that custodial staffs currently do. Rather, robots will initially take over only the easiest tasks, leaving their human counterparts to take on the more complex ones. As Way explains, in the beginning “robots will be introduced alongside their human counterparts. For example, an industrial robotic floor cleaner will be wiping the floor at McDonald’s, as the janitor executes more complicated tasks such as wiping down tables or cleaning the cooking machinery” (loc. 322).
Still, given that the less complex chores will be taken care of by robots, this will leave custodians with less work overall, thus fewer of them will be needed (loc. 324).
Slowly but surely, more and more complex custodial tasks will become automated. Even now, companies are working on technologies that would automate even fairly complex cleaning tasks, such as window-cleaning (loc. 332). What might this look like? Just “imagine a few flying window cleaning bots on every skyscraper in the world” (loc. 332). This may sound farfetched, but as the author explains, “in reality, this technology is not that far way, as it is one of the technologies that my solar company is developing” (loc. 335).
As robots become capable of ever more complex cleaning tasks, fewer and fewer custodians will be needed, until, finally, only a bare minimum will retain jobs (loc. 324).
Cleaning and maintenance bots will also be taken advantage of domestically, in our homes, yards, gardens and pools. This phenomenon has already begun, in fact; as there are already robotic vacuums, lawnmowers and pool cleaners, as seen below (loc. 316).
Robo-vacuum:
Robo-mower:
Robo-pool-cleaner:
These robotic contraptions are still relatively rudimentary, of course, but as the technology inevitably advances they will become more and more sophisticated, and capable of more and more complex tasks (loc. 316, 335-44). This is happening even now. As Way explains, “it… won’t take long before small UAVs can trim trees [and] water plants” (loc. 381). These advances will not only save us time, of course, but will also cut into the work opportunities of house maids, landscapers, groundskeepers and pool boys (loc. 316, 335-44).
It doesn’t take much imagination to see that these technologies, and similar ones, will also find use in municipal maintenance works. As Way explains, “the robotic revolution in municipals should bring major cost reductions and better cleaner streets, and parks, while tasks like street cleaning, pavement repair, and park maintenance all become automated” (loc. 385)—and we can throw in automated parking enforcement and graffiti removal as well (loc. 381-85).
Perhaps maintenance bots will not take the jobs of unionized city workers at first (unions are powerful, after all) (loc. 377). However, municipal jobs that are currently being outsourced to private companies will be ripe for early robotic replacement (loc. 378). Then, as municipalities increasingly confront budgetary shortfalls, the pressure will mount to replace unionized workers as well.
5. The Supply Chain: From Warehousing to Shipping (and the Driverless Revolution)
a. Warehousing
The supply chain that is responsible for transporting goods from the factory to the consumer is as behind-the-scenes as the custodians and maintenance workers of our world, and it too stands to be revolutionized by robotics. In fact, this revolution has already begun. Just consider warehouses. As Way explains, “some of the most successful companies in the world Coca Cola, Nike and Zappos have automated their warehousing operation” (loc. 888). And this is just the beginning. Given the cost-savings and increases in safety that automated warehousing brings (check out the video below), the practice will inevitably sweep its way through the industry, obliterating an enormous number of human jobs along the way.
Here is a presentation on Zappos’ robotic warehouse:
b. Shipping and Delivery Services
But warehousing is not the cog of the supply chain that stands to lose the most jobs due to the rise of robots. This honor goes to the shipping and delivery industry. How? Just think of Google’s driverless car mentioned above. This automated technology stands to completely change the face of numerous industries, and the shipping and delivery industry is one of the top on the list. As mentioned earlier, driverless cars have already shown themselves to be exceedingly safe (loc. 443). It is only a matter of time before these vehicles become commercially available (loc. 449), and when they do the number of human jobs that will fall by the wayside will be jaw-dropping.
Even if driverless cars and trucks at first require human operators as a backup to the computer system (loc. 446), the increase in efficiency that they will bring to the shipping and delivery industries will inevitably mean fewer jobs for transport and delivery drivers. Then, when self-driving systems prove themselves to be even more safe and reliable than humans, and what with the economics heavily favoring the elimination of drivers altogether (loc. 468), driverless delivery cars and trucks will likely go just that—driverless (loc. 449-56).
Won’t we still need someone to deliver packages from the truck to the consumer’s hands? Nope. As Way explains, “the robotic trucks of the future will be able to come and find you even if you are on the move away from home. Then, biometric identification will allow you to access an onboard ‘locker’ and retrieve your goods” (loc. 474).
c. The Driverless Revolution
And don’t think that road vehicles are the only ones that are capable of being driven without a driver. As way explains, “autopilots have been used on boats for over fifty years” (loc. 739), and as the technology advances there is no reason to believe that it could not come to be used in cargo shipping even more so than it already is (automatic ships could also come to steal jobs from the fishing industry—that is, if automatic fish farms do not completely kill open-water fishing first [loc. 738-41]).
And speaking of pilots, this may sound crazy, but the concept of driverless cars has already been extended to airplanes too. And sure enough, it works just as well here, as we can see below (loc. 498).
While the plane featured in the video is designed to carry passengers, and while pilotless air travel may one day be a reality, it seems certain that “pilotless cockpits will first appear in air cargo planes, where the phycology of the passengers (boxes) does not need to be taken into consideration” (loc. 504).
Driverless vehicles will not only impact the shipping and delivery industry, of course. Indeed, virtually every job that sees someone behind a wheel will be threatened. This includes everything from passenger transportation (taxis, buses, air travel etc. [loc. 458-65, 481-87, 500); to service vehicles (such as garbage and recycling trucks—just imagine the end of garbage-men [loc. 381]); to emergency response and rescue vehicles (loc. 1131); to tractors (loc. 687) (which we shall return to below, in the section on automated farming).
6. Retail
One link in the supply chain that we have not mentioned yet is the retail store, but here as well automated technologies stand to have a major impact. And once again, this impact is already beginning to be felt. Indeed, we already have automated tellers and cashiers in several retail outlets (loc. 873). But this is really just the beginning of the robot revolution in retail (loc. 873). For starters, As RFIDs come to completely replace barcodes, the checkout process will become even simpler than it already is, and thus ripe for full automation (loc. 873).
In addition, we have already seen how robots are coming to take over shelf-stocking in warehouses. Well, the process is really not all that much more complicated in-store, and thus it is only a matter of time before robots replace retail shelf-stockers as well (loc. 876).
In the end, retail spaces will be not much more than automated show-rooms. Here’s what Way thinks the shopping experience of the future will look like: “overall, the future will allow you to walk into almost any store, choose what you want to buy, and by the time you get home it will already be at your door, thanks to the self-driving logistics, at a fraction of the store price” (loc. 900).
Now, one of the only things that even now keeps retail spaces from being fully replaced by on-line shopping is our desire to touch and experience products first hand (loc. 908). However, haptic devices are currently being developed that would allow us to experience the touch and feel of objects virtually (loc. 908). Way predicts that “this technology will eventually reach a point in which it is indistinguishable from the real world” (loc. 913). At this point, retail spaces themselves may become entirely obsolete (though Way predicts that a certain small few may continue to exist in some high-end markets [loc. 917]).
7. Security Services
With fewer people employed as custodians, maintenance workers, maids, warehouse workers, delivery drivers, retail workers etc. won’t we need to be more worried about theft and security issues? Nope. Because robots will be taking care of this for us too (and in doing so suck out the human labor from yet another industry).
When it comes to factories, buildings and warehouses, for instance, as Way explains, “dogs and people roaming around buildings and warehouses is expensive, inefficient and prone to human failure. A couple of infrared flying drones controlled by a central command post is very efficient and reliable, and most importantly, is massively lower in cost. Most sectors will utilize robots in conjunction with command and control centers operated by a few humans. However, this action will replace tens of thousands of jobs rapidly” (loc. 598).
When it comes to retail spaces (as long as they are still in existence), “security bots will roam the aisles automatically picking up suspicious behavior and running facial features through the local crime database” (loc. 876). When a suspicious person or suspicious behavior is detected, the robot will alert a central command center, whereupon a human will take over. As Way explains, “I am sure that there are thousands of security guards, whose only job is to stare at a whole bunch of CCTV screens, looking for this bad behavior. However, these jobs too are in danger, as technology becomes better at understanding behavior patterns and picking up unusual events. Rather than have one security guard monitor 10 cameras, a single security guard will be able to monitor thousands simultaneously, as the technology automatically decides the images that they should be looking at. While it might be true that the technology may miss a few outlying events (which it will learn from), humans are notoriously inefficient at picking out exceptions, even when we are trained to look for them” (loc. 885).
Finally, when it comes to the entrances of buildings and compounds, human security guards will be replaced with “automated biometric systems that will be able to pull almost any data using face recognition… Anomalies will be dealt with through a central command structure run by humans” (loc. 601). Though, once again, the number of humans needed will be vastly reduced.
Section 2. Pre-Supply Chain: From Manufacturing to Resource Extraction
8. Manufacturing and 3D printing
a. Manufacturing
We have now made our way through the supply chain, from the warehouse, onto the retail space, and into the consumers’ home. But what about the beginning of the supply chain—the factory? This is one area where robots have in fact already had a significant impact (as we have had a glimpse at above). But this impact is small compared to what it is quickly becoming, and what it will be in the future.
The fact is that most of the technology is already here that would allow us to fully automate the manufacturing of almost any manufacturable good. What has prevented this development to this point is simple economics. Specifically, the availability of very cheap labor in certain parts of the world, as well as the relatively high cost of robotics by comparison (loc. 923). Now, though, this situation is reversing itself. Indeed, as the developing world has taken over more and more employment opportunities, this is allowing it to pull itself up out of poverty, which is putting upwards pressure on wages (loc. 927). At the same time, robotics technology is becoming cheaper and cheaper all the time.
For this reason we are even now seeing an intensification in the automation of manufacturing. As Way explains, “the first steps towards this complete automation of manufacturing was the major announcement from Foxconn” (loc. 932). Foxconn is a Taiwanese electronics manufacturing company that is in fact the world’s largest manufacturer of computer components. They are currently planning to replace hundreds of thousands of their manufacturing workers with robots by the year 2014.
Here is a news clip covering this announcement:
And this is just the beginning. As the author explains, “in the future, Foxconn’s advancements will become a template for new manufacturing plants. New plants will be able to outcompete old human labor plants so effectively that the downward pressure to automate all manufacturing processes will become a self-fulfilling prophecy” (loc. 935).
Now, to be sure, the introduction of a wave of manufacturing robots will lead to a sizeable increase in employment opportunities. However, as Way explains, this boost in employment will not last as long as we might hope: “So we build this amazing manufacturing utopia. Of course, there will be an initial boom for jobs, not just in building factories, but also in research, development and ongoing maintenance. However, these will most likely only span a decade or so. You see, while at the moment these robots will initially need maintenance and repair from humans, we are about to open the door to the first technology since biology, in which the robots will repair themselves. We are not there yet, but we do not have to stretch our imaginations much to see that robots have the future capability to build, disassemble, diagnose and repair each other as well” (loc. 988).
Once this happens, the opportunities left for humans in the field of manufacturing will be very narrow indeed.
b. 3D Printing
That’s not even the half of it, though. For the next generation of producing goods promises to not just wipe out manufacturing jobs, but the entire manufacturing industry itself—as well as many more industries over and above this (including the entire supply chain that we looked at above.) What is this magical technology of the future? It is one that already exists today, in fact: 3D printing.
As Way explains, “we are already developing quite advanced 3D printers. Some can build full color models, while others can build highly detailed shapes, electronics, and even build body parts for us faulty humans… Soon, it will be possible to replicate almost anything through 3D printing. This will increase the impact that robotics will have on manufacturing, and obviously printing at home means complete exclusion from logistics and retail” (loc. 998).
Of course, people will still be needed to design the computer files out of which 3D objects will be created; but, as Way points out, “even those who generate income from the creative process of developing 3D products will face challenges, as product piracy becomes a major issue” (loc. 998). Indeed, even if we find a way to limit the sharing of 3D computer files, scanning technologies will make it possible to just scan an object and recreate it on the spot, thus eliminating the need to access the original computer file. As the author explains, “3D scanners already exist and allow you to scan a 3D object and print an identical copy from a 3D printer. It would be almost impossible to stop this replication” (loc. 1005).
The following is an excellent video on 3D printing and its many applications:
And 3D printers have the potential to construct not just objects, but whole buildings! As Way explains, “although there is the possibility of a brick-laying robot in the future of construction, chances are that with 3D printing on a grand scale, buildings will rise out of the ground automatically with robotic technologies putting in the finishing touches. This is not as farfetched as it might sound, as the first 3D printed buildings are already under construction” (loc. 373).
Here is a presentation on 3D printing in building construction (the demonstration begins at the 2:20 mark):
As you can tell from the video, 3D printing has the potential to obliterate not just the construction industry, but all of the trades associated with construction as well!
Finally, it was also mentioned in the video above that 3D printing has the potential to fabricate not just objects and buildings, but even food. Yep. Here’s how it works:
9. Primary Industries: Farming and Mining
a. Farming
Even if in the future we’ll be printing all of the goods that we want (including our food) from the comfort of our own homes, we’ll still need to produce and/or extract the raw materials needed to feed our printing machines. But here too, robots stand to do much of the work for us.
It was mentioned above that one of the vehicles that has the potential to be automated is the tractor, and indeed the automatic tractor is already here. Here is a presentation on the automatic tractor:
The automatic tractor is not the only robotic technology that could come to impact the agriculture industry. Indeed, robots that take care of animal husbandry have themselves also been developed, and Way predicts that it is but a short matter of time before they too become available commercially (loc. 696).
How will the (continued) automation of farming unfold? Here’s Way on the issue: “initially, humans will be required to provide interim processes that require transformation from one process to another. For example, a self-driven tractor with a seed planting extension will easily plant a billion seeds without hassle, but it won’t be able to perform the process of taking the seeds from the supplier or emptying out the bags into a standardized seed bin so that the seed planting tractor can plant them. Taking delivery is itself a complex process, and thus this will likely remain manual until much more flexible humanoid ability robots become available that can perform a number of the simple but diverse tasks. These issues will be similar to the issues that factories and industries will face before being fully automated” (loc. 713).
b. Mining
While robots are tending our farms and bringing us food, mining robots will be bringing us the metals and minerals we need to feed our manufacturing industries (and eventually our 3D printers).
Currently, mining is a tough ask for robots since the wet, dirty, salty environment is corrosive to robotic materials (loc. 726). However, new advances should be able to overcome this limitation. As Way explains, “new materials are being created and innovation in superhydrophobic water repelling technology will be able to protect robots against a lot of moisture and water damage they would otherwise be exposed to.
Once this advance occurs robots should be able to perform everything in a typical mining operation, from tunneling, to extraction, to processing, to shipping. As the author explains, “it is… a possibility that huge self-driving mining vehicles will become commonplace. Swarms of thousands of smaller mining bots will work together, slowly but surely breaking down the mining material, while carrier bots will collect and process the material. By using low cost micro bots that are only designed to grind and recharge constantly 24 hours a day, a mining operation could continue indefinitely, even when the micro bots fail and need to be replaced or repaired” (loc. 733).
Section 3. Consumer-Facing Services and Professions
We have now covered work related to the procurement of material goods (including food) from extraction to delivery to consumers, and all of the services that are connected to this process. What we have yet to cover are all of the consumer-facing services and professions that are outside of this arena. We shall turn to these industries now, beginning with the restaurant and hospitality industry.
10. Restaurant and Hospitality
As is clear, the preparation of most fast food is very simple and straightforward, and thus already very much within the range of today’s robots (loc. 843). The fact that no fast food restaurant has yet made the jump to full automation has more to do with the cost of the technology (and perhaps a bit of a psychological barrier on the part of the customer) than any deficiency in the technology itself. As the price of robots falls, though, and we become more and more accustomed to having them around and doing things for us, both of these barriers will fall away (loc. 849). In other words don’t be surprised if McDonald’s does away with food handlers sometime in the near future (loc. 849).
Bartenders aren’t far behind. Indeed, robotic bartenders already exist, and the fully automated bar is just around the corner, as seen here:
What about hotel staff? Goodbye. As Way explains, “a good friend of mine and fellow entrepreneur, Simon Woodroffe, is the first person to implement robotic bag handlers in his flagship hotel, Yotel, in Times Square. While some may find robotic bag handlers gimmicky, it is just a start of the transition to an all robotic staff. Remember when hotels had elevator operators? Me neither” (loc. 374).
Yotel is in fact already almost entirely automated. You can check it out here:
Perhaps in the future certain high end establishments may retain some human staff to serve and cater to their customers, but most probably will not—especially as we become more and more accustomed to automated technology, and even more especially as it gets cheaper and cheaper relative to human labor.
11. Health Care
a. Doctors
While you may say that much of what restaurant and hospitality workers do is still relatively straightforward, I think we can all agree that this is not the case when it comes to what health care workers do. Doctors, nurses and elder care workers are also at threat of losing their jobs to robots, though.
Take diagnostics, to start with. While this is something that has always required a good doctor, new technologies are on the horizon that will diagnose you automatically, and much better than a human doctor ever could. As Way explains, “as self diagnostic tools become more prevalent, and as sensors become common additions to the devices we take around with us all the time, we will increasingly rely on our own diagnostics first before seeing a doctor” (loc. 1110). And over and above the diagnostic tools that are built into our mobile devices, “with a host of low-cost hyper-efficient fluid diagnostic tools coming to market, a quick pop to your local supermarket’s medical booth will be all you will need to diagnose 95% of all medical problems. As these booths become more sophisticated, there is no reason why they could not dispense prescription drugs” (loc. 1113)—thus doing away with many pharmacists as well.
There are certain things we may never trust robots to do, and surgery would seem to be on the top of the list, but this does not mean that robots will not come to help surgeons greatly in their work. In fact, this is already a reality. Take the DaVinci robot. This surgery assist device has been in operation and helping surgeons since it became “the first robotic medical device to be approved by the FDA in 2000” (loc. 1016).
And while DaVinci may have certain significant limitations, several advances in surgery assist technology have been made since DaVinci was introduced. This includes “the heavy duty Epoch, which looks like some technology out of a space odyssey. This has been described as ‘a major step toward the goal of exceeding the human hand’. Another type of surgical technology includes lightweight surgical assistants such as Freehand, which provides the surgeon with a spare pair of hands” (loc. 1023).
b. Nurses and Elder Care Workers
Aside from doctors, other health care workers, such as nurses and elder care workers also stand to be largely replaced by robots. Beginning with nursing, as Way explains, “as the automation of diagnostic care becomes easier and more efficient, patients will begin to have full-time diagnostic monitoring that will provide detailed realtime diagnostic and blood work information. This, combined with the new wave of much safer needleless injections, makes nurses become less and less relevant. Nurses will find that they can cover a much wider range of patients with a much smaller number of responsibilities” (loc. 1045). Which, of course, means that far fewer nurses will be needed.
When it comes to elder care, much of this too will be taken over by robots. From monitoring an older person’s condition (loc. 1072), to reminding them to take their medicine (loc. 1062), to picking them up if they fall (loc. 1072), to even providing companionship (loc. 1055-58), robots will be able to (or are already capable of) all of these things. Way predicts that “what we are likely to find is the development of super friendly care robots that perform a wide range of care options for the elderly and infirm. I suspect that for a great deal of people, these robots will be a literal lifesaver, and improve emotional and physical quality of life in one relatively low-cost robot. The benefits for society will be huge. Home care will last for much longer and be much lower in cost. Those who do move into care homes can be monitored 24 hours a day, not only by their care workers, but also by friends and family” (loc. 1068).
12. Education
When it comes to education, we should mention first that a great many corporate educators have already lost their jobs over the past decade and half due to the advent of online courses. As Way explains, “think twenty years ago how many people were sent on health and safety courses, sexual harassment courses and the like? Cringe worthy as they were, you would be educated in the requirements of that field, take a test, have it marked and hopefully show your boss the pass slip. Even with today’s limited technology, we have destroyed almost all of these jobs with a simple online education course, and this is just the start of the process” (loc. 806).
Indeed, the next generation of online courses, called MOOCs (for massive open online course) threatens to do for tenured teachers at the post-secondary level what the first generation of online courses did for corporate educators.
Here is a nice feature on MOOCs from the CBC:
Of course, online courses and MOOCs do not eliminate the need for teachers entirely—but they do vastly decrease the numbers that are required to do the same job. And the latest advancements in robotics promises to push this even further.
Now, a robot may never be able to take the place of a good teacher, but this does not mean that we will not be able to create robots to assist teachers in their practice—and even create ones that are able to teach certain skills, such as music, all on their own. As the author explains, “the first set of education bots will most likely be very specific and niche in nature, rather than try and be all things to all people. Companies will find specific areas where robots excel in a controlled environment. Want to learn how to play the piano? Simple. Just sit next to the piano bot, watch and copy with feedback and encouragement from your automated friend. The economic and social benefits for a parent are huge; not only can they rent it (brought to you on that night by an automated robotic service), but it will sit there with your son and daughter until they have done as little or as much as they can, rather than trying to fit everything into an abstract hour. The children are supervised by a safe, responsible, nonthreatening robot… while automatically adjusting to your children’s skills and abilities” (loc. 770).
When it comes to more difficult skills and subjects, and higher levels of education, robotic teaching assistants will be able to help students along; and when it comes to a question or task that exceeds the robot’s abilities, a teacher (either in the room or available remotely) can be notified so that they may attend to the situation. For example, the author “imagine[s] scenarios where edubots work one-on-one with students in specialist environments such as biology, and monitor, interact and help them; for those questions that the robot teacher is not equipped to deal with, quite simply the robot will connect to a remote professor who will then use telepresence (a fancy word for advanced video conferencing) to explain the solution directly” (loc. 815; see also loc. 790).
So while the very best teachers may be able to keep their jobs well into the future, much of the industry will likely be dominated by online courses and robotic teaching assistants.
13. The Military
As mentioned above, robots, in the form of unmanned vehicles, are already being used in the military. This phenomenon began with a few robots capable of diffusing bombs (loc. 512), but we have now moved into an era where UAVs, or drones, are playing a major role in combat.
Now, today’s drones still need human pilots, but the fact that they can be flown remotely, from a central command center, has significant repercussions on the number of pilots that the military actually needs. As Way explains, “a single UAV pilot can theoretically control UAVs across multiple war theaters (even though for practical purposes they would normally be limited to one war theater for continuity unless there was a serious strain on resources). A UAV pilot can hop from one UAV to another instantly while it is being refueled or is destroyed. The only limitation is fatigue, which would be less than your average pilot due to the stress reduction of being out of a conflict zone, as well as a more controlled environment. So, rather than needing three hundred pilots for two war theaters, you need closer to one hundred and fifty pilots to achieve the same combat capability, or a loss of 50% of the required jobs to achieve the same. This is also before UAVs achieve the capability to make decisions themselves” (loc. 545).
You read this last sentence correctly. The fact is that technologies that are unmanned and yet not fully autonomous present a real threat. For they remain highly vulnerable to hacking, as well as being hijacked with communications technologies. As Way explains, “this is what is thought to have happened when Iran managed to land an American UAV that was spying on them. It is believed that they simply spoofed the very weak GPS signal the UAV was receiving with a much stronger ground signal” (loc. 554).
Given this threat, it would be better by far if the military could come up with technology that was both unmanned and highly autonomous, and they are in fact in the process of developing just this (loc. 557). As the author explains, “the US military is already concentrating on this development, the DARPA grand challenge competition gives a two million dollar prize to any robotic team that can drive across the desert and perform a number of tasks autonomously. This is what the military ultimately desires; we make the decisions on who, what, when and where, but the technology will begin to decide how” (loc. 560).
The following is a very good documentary on the present and future of robotic warfare.
Needless to say, technology that is capable of automating an airplane would completely gut the military of human jobs. And airforce pilots would not be the only military personnel that would be in danger of losing their jobs. As the video above makes clear, the military hopes to apply automated technology to whatever field they are able. Thus human soldiers and naval officers would also be at risk of becoming obsolete.
As Way points out, “once we reach this point, the only jobs required will be that of the decision makers, strategists and, of course, the maintenance and deployment teams for the technology” (loc. 560). Considering that the American military currently employs some 3.8 million people (loc. 563), this would be a major coup in the world of work indeed.
14. Policing and Law Enforcement
So, if Terminator is defending our borders and protecting us, will RoboCop be policing our streets? Even though police bots may well be possible, Way is skeptical that they will ever come to walk our streets. Here’s his rationale: “even though it is likely that robots will replace private security, I doubt that it will replace policing activities fully. I don’t think that citizens would allow that kind of decision making to happen autonomously” (loc. 605).
Still, this does not mean that robots will not come to aid policemen and women in their jobs. Experiments are already happening in robotic interrogation, for example. As the author explains, “police are highly trained to force the truth out of people, but people may change the truth in their minds, depending on which questions they are asked and how they are asked them. It has been shown that, actually, an independent robot asking questions and interacting with a witness could be a much safer way of interrogation. The participants are also less likely to create fictitious statements” (loc. 612).
Robots could also potentially function very well as prison guards. And, once again, this is already being experimented with: “those who are unlucky enough to find themselves in prison will also find themselves surrounded by robots. South Korean correctional facilities are already implementing them, and given the relatively predictable nature of a prison environment, robots are the perfect prison guards. They will be incorruptible, all-seeing, all-hearing guards that will be able to detect unusual behavior patterns and warn beforehand of any likely security problems. It is also likely that they will be able to monitor and track contraband in a way that humans cannot through some simple additional sensors and electronic devices. Robot guards will even have the ability to see through inmates’ clothes” (loc. 615).
PART III: THE FALLOUT AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE ROBOTIC AGE
15. Jobs Saved and Created Vs. Jobs Lost & The Net Effect
a. What Jobs Are Safe?
To this point we have seen that robots are already capable of performing a significant number of human jobs, and that future advances promise to vastly increase the number of jobs that robots will be capable of. Just how many human jobs will be lost to robots? Way himself predicts that “within the next thirty years we will lose seventy percent of traditional jobs” (loc. 1365; see also loc. 82).
So, just what jobs are safe? Aside from those jobs that we simply won’t be comfortable handing over to robots (such as childcare and policing), there are a few areas that Way believes will be safe for some time to come.
The simple fact is that our higher order thinking skills are still a long way from being replicated by artificial intelligence systems (and Way believes that some never will be [loc. 1306]). And so any job that requires these higher order thinking skills should remain in human hands into the foreseeable future.
Take abstract thinking, strategic decision-making and executive judgment, for example. Robots are a long way from achieving sophistication in these areas, and they may never match humans here (and even if they do, it is not likely that we would permit them to make certain decisions anyway). Thus politicians, generals, judges, business managers, and advertising and marketing agents should be safe for some time to come (if not ever) (loc. 1351, 560, 628, 1342, 1336). And many scientists, too, should be safe—especially in fields that are still in their infancy, and in which we have much to learn, such as neurology (loc. 1093).
The creative industries should also be safe. As Way explains, “people who can create beauty from nothing will be highly sought after, whether that’s in the field of art, music or writing. Those who are bold and can be unpredictable will make a refreshing change from the sanitized predictability of robotics” (loc. 1337).
Finally, those who can manage to become ultra-specialists in the technologies that emerge should also be able to hang on to a job. As the author explains, “the third area where humanity will still be relevant is that of ultra-specialization in cutting edge industries. While most fundamental information on almost anything will be available at the touch of a button, when it comes to new ideas and abstract thinking, the human brain is very powerful” (loc. 1346).
b. The Net Loss of Human Jobs
So, some jobs will be preserved, and others will emerge as the result of new technologies; but how will this compare to the jobs that will be lost to robots? As mentioned above, Way predicts that upwards of 70% of traditional jobs will be lost in the next 30 years. Even if at first the jobs that emerge as the result of robotics manage to keep pace with those that are lost, Way predicts that eventually this pace will not be able to be kept. What’s more, as the robotic age progresses, the number of jobs lost to robots will increasingly outpace those that are generated anew. This is because “while the robotic revolution will of course produce new positions of higher expertise, it will be the first time in history in which the technology itself can fulfill some of the new types of jobs that it will create” (loc. 137).
In what ways? To begin with, as way points out, programming the robots of the future won’t take much more programming ability and engineering know-how than has already been achieved (loc. 249). Thus the field of robotics programming may expand (at first), but no wholly new field will emerge. And over and above this, advanced artificial intelligence systems will eventually allow robots to learn things themselves, without any human intervention, thus severely limiting the need for new programmers (loc. 240-46). Finally, as seen above, the robots of the future will be able to build and repair themselves (loc. 239, 246), thus eliminating any need for humans to step in and fulfill these roles.
The long short of it is that the robotics revolution will extinguish more jobs than it creates, and as robotics progresses the number of jobs that are taken will increasingly outstrip those that are created anew.
16. The Consequences: Two Possible Scenarios
Now, before we get to the troubling consequences of this development, let us just for a moment explore the positive impacts thereof. For indeed, there are some significant positive impacts here. For one thing, we’ll be ridding the world of many highly tedious, repugnant and dangerous jobs. That’s a very good thing. And for another thing, the prices of goods and services that fall under automation will plummet (loc. 292). Indeed, increased affordability of goods and services is the main impetus towards automation in the first place. So both of these are very good things.
On the negative side of the ledger, though, the prices of goods and services will not plummet to zero—while at the same time the employment opportunities available through which to afford these goods and services will be ever more elusive. So, just how will all his play out? Way foresees 2 general directions that the robot age could take. One being considerably worse than the other. Let’s start with the negative possibility.
a. The Unhappy Scenario
In the ne
