From an Overall Perspective...
Probably the biggest fear for a team hoping for an At-Large is the threat of a non-7-win team stealing an AQ from a good team. These situations usually happen a couple times each season, so it is a real threat. Fortunately, we're now down to only one chance where that can happen this year – in the Patriot League. If Lafayette beats Lehigh next week, they will get the Patriot AQ with a 5-6 record and put Lehigh on the bubble. Hopefully, Lehigh stops them.
Fifteen more teams were completely eliminated this week while six conference AQs were clinched. There are now only 38 teams alive for 24 playoff spots.
From a JMU Perspective...
And the Dukes are done. Things were going right for them around the rest of the country, but JMU just couldn't capitalize. They were doomed by an embarrassing 1st half against Stony Brook and just couldn't recover. While they could possibly reach 7 wins, it would take a 50-point win over Towson to get back in the playoff picture. It's over.
By the Numbers (104 total teams)...
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/13 – 101
10/20 – 98
10/27 – 81
11/3 – 75
11/10 – 53
11/17 – 38
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/13 – 79
10/20 – 71
10/27 – 58
11/3 – 50
11/10 – 38
11/17 – 31
Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/13 – 1
10/20 – 4
10/27 – 7
11/3 – 14
11/10 – 23
11/17 – 24
Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. I am not listing transitioning teams (ODU, Incarnate Word, etc) to keep this more straightforward. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.
Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky – EWU
Big South –
CAA – Maine
MEAC –
MVC – ND State
NEC – Sacred Heart
OVC – E. Illinois
Patriot –
Pioneer –
SoCon –
Southland – SE Louisiana
CAA (6 Teams Alive)
Maine – 10 wins – clinched AQ
Towson – 9 wins
Delaware – 7 wins
W&M – 7 wins
JMU (0)
UNH (0)
Big Sky (5 Teams Alive)
EWU – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Northern Arizona – 8 wins
Montana – 8 wins
Southern Utah – 7 wins
Montana State (0)
Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Coastal Carolina – 10 wins
Charleston Southern – 8 wins
Independent (1 Team Alive)
Monmouth (0)
MEAC (2 Teams Alive)
Bethune-Cookman – 8 wins
SC State – 7 wins
MVC (4 Teams Alive)
ND State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Youngstown State – 8 wins
SD State – 7 wins
No. Iowa (0)
NEC (1 Team Alive)
Sacred Heart – 8 wins - clinched AQ
OVC (5 Teams Alive)
E. Illinois – 10 wins - clinched AQ
Tenn. State – 8 wins
Jacksonville State – 7 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 7 wins
EKU (0)
Patriot League (3 Teams Alive)
Fordham – 10 Wins (Cannot win AQ)
Lehigh – 8 wins
Lafayette
Pioneer League (3 Teams Alive)
Marist – 8 wins
Butler – 7 wins
Dayton – 7 wins (eliminated from AQ)
SoCon (3 Teams Alive)
Chatty – 8 wins
Samford – 7 wins
Furman (0)
Southland (3 Teams Alive)
SE Louisiana – 9 wins (*) - clinched AQ
Sam Houston State – 8 wins (*)
McNeese State – 8 wins
Must Win Out to reach 7 wins:
JMU
UNH
Montana State
Monmouth
No. Iowa
EKU
Furman
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Georgia Southern (moving to I-A)
Appy State (moving to I-A)
Villanova
Stony Brook
Richmond
URI
Albany
Cal Poly
Sac State
UC Davis
Portland State
Idaho State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Liberty
Gardner-Webb
Presbyterian
VMI
Delaware State
Hampton
Norfolk State
Morgan State
NC A&T
NC Central
Florida A&M
Howard
Missouri State
South Dakota
So. Illinois
Illinois State
W. Illinois
Indiana State
Robert Morris
Duquesne
Cent. Conn. State
StFU
Bryant
Wagner
Murray State
Tenn. Tech
SE Missouri State
Austin Peay
Colgate
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Georgetown
San Diego – made themselves ineligible
Mercer
Drake
Morehead State
Jacksonville
Valparaiso
Stetson
Campbell
Davidson
Wofford
Citadel
Elon
W. Carolina
Central Ark.
Nichols State
NW State
Stephen F. Austin
Lamar
Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
NDSU
Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Columbia
Austin Peay
Davidson
...and Georgia State (hahaha)
Conference Analysis
CAA – After 2 weeks of sub-par games, Maine finally woke up against URI – beating them 41-0 and clinching the CAA title. With a record of 10-1 (1-1 against I-A teams), Maine is now a favorite to get one of the top Seeds. How many CAA teams get At-Large bids is a big question right now. Towson looks safe – even if they somehow choke to JMU. Delaware had been looking strong, but have now lost 2 games in a row to be stuck at 7 wins. Their final game is against Villanova, who will not be a pushover. W&M is also stuck at 7 wins with a final game against Richmond coming up. For both Delaware and W&M, I think their playoffs start next week. With both of those teams, if they win, they will get an At-Large. If they lose, they'll be on the bubble. The only other team in the playoff conversation is UNH. UNH needs to beat Maine just to get on the bubble with 7 wins. If they are able to do it, they will be an interesting case to watch. They have no “bad” losses – in fact all three I-AA losses could be to playoff teams (Lehigh, Towson, W&M). The fact that they do not have a signature win would be solved by beating Maine. They would only have 7 wins, but they only played 11 games – they didn't schedule any cupcakes for their OOC slate. But let's see if they can handle a Maine team going for a high Seed. (A home game in rural Maine in December certainly will be a HUGE advantage.)
Big Sky – With their win over Cal Poly, EWU has now clinched the AQ. It is possible that NAU can tie EWU and since those 2 teams did not play each other, it would go to who beat the better teams. EWU beat Montana State while NAU lost to them – so that's the decider. At 8 wins (with another week to go), NAU and Montana will almost certainly get At-Large bids. Southern Utah is on the bubble with 7 wins. If they get to 8 wins, it will be by beating NAU – a good win which should secure an At-Large. Montana State is now in trouble. They must beat Montana next week just to reach 7 wins after losing the last two weeks. Even then, it would require five teams getting in from the Big Sky.
Big South – It's now down to two teams for the AQ – Coastal Carolina and Charleston Southern. Coastal is finished with their conference schedule, so it will come down to Chuck South's game with Liberty. If Chuck South wins, they get the AQ. If Chuck South loses, the AQ goes to Coastal. Coastal will get in the playoffs no matter what, but Chuck South losing this week hurts their chances. If they were to lose next week to Liberty, that would leave them with 8 real wins. Their win over Coastal will help them, but I could a situation where they get left out.
Independent – Monmouth is the only independent team that is playoff-eligible, so they're the only one I will talk about here. They'll be in the Big South next year (replacing VMI), but this year they can only get an At-Large. Monmouth is still alive with a win over Bryant, but I don't see them as a playoff team with their weak schedule.
MEAC – Bethune-Cookman and SC State both won to stay atop the MEAC. If B-C beats FAMU next week, they will take the AQ. If B-C loses, SC State gets the AQ with a win. If both teams lose, B-C will get the AQ. (Even if Delaware State is able to move into a 3-way tie, the winner would be B-C.) No matter what, B-C should be in the playoffs. If SC State wins, they will be a strong contender for an At-Large. If they were to lose (to Norfolk – who beat B-C last week), they likely will be out of the playoffs with only 7 wins.
MVC – ND State clinched the AQ with their win over Youngstown State. They should easily get the #1 Seed if they can get by South Dakota. Youngstown has now lost 2 games in a row. Next week, they will play SD State – another team with playoff hopes. The winner of that game should get an easy At-Large, while the loser will have to sweat out the Selection Show. Youngstown does not have any real good wins as of now, so even with 8 wins they are not a lock. SD State has a great win over SE Louisiana, but they'll want to get above 7 wins to feel safe. Northern Iowa is still alive with their over Missouri State. They will reach 7 wins (including a BCS win) with a win over Western Illinois.
NEC – Finally the NEC becomes clear. Sacred Heart, the only team that could reach 7 wins, clinched the AQ with their win over Robert Morris. They beat both RMU and Duquesne, so they own all tie-breaker scenarios. All other teams are now completely eliminated from the playoffs.
OVC – Eastern Illinois clinched the AQ with their win over Jacksonville State. EIU is just crushing their opponents and will be receiving a top Seed – amazing for a team from a conference who has still never won a playoff game. (I think that will change this year.) Second place goes to Tennessee State – who needed a comeback in the 4th quarter to beat Murray State this past weekend. If they had lost, I would have had them solidly on the bubble (with only 7 wins) – probably out. With this win, they are in with an At-Large. (Their regular season is done.) Three other teams are alive for At-Larges – Tennessee-Martin, Jacksonville State, and EKU. Looking at next week's games, it is very likely that they will finish in a 3-way tie for 3rd place in the conference. EKU is in the worst position of those three since they lost to both Tenn-Martin and Jacksonville State over the last 2 weeks. They need Jacksonville State to be upset by a bad SE Missouri in order for them to have any shot.
Patriot – Fordham goes down! Their star QB (who transferred from UConn) was injured last week and did not play this week and it killed them in their game with Lafayette. The QB could return next week, but if not, it looks like he'll be there for the playoffs – which Fordham will have no problem getting in. For the conference AQ, it appropriately comes down to Lehigh and Lafayette after Lehigh knocked out Colgate. The winner of “The Rivalry” game will get the AQ. Lehigh will be a bubble team with 8 wins if they lose the AQ, but it might be too much to get three Patriot teams in. Lafayette has a losing record, so they'll be completely out with a loss.
Pioneer – There was a big surprise this week when San Diego – one of the top teams in the conference – declared themselves ineligible from the playoffs for scholarship violations. (The Pioneer only allows general need-based scholarships, not athletic scholarships.) That, along with this week's results, has left the AQ to either Marist or Butler. Both of those teams are finished with the regular season and they did not play each other. It will come down to these two teams' rankings in both the GPI and the new SRS rankings. (Each teams' ranking will be the average between their rankings in the two systems.) None of this can be decided until next week's games are played, so both teams have to just wait. This will be crucial, because it is unlikely that the Pioneer will receive 2 bids with their weak schedules. It's very difficult to see who will get this – Marist has 8 wins but played two lower teams and 12 games overall; Butler only has 7 wins, but they only played 11 games with no lower division games. Dayton is also technically alive with 7 wins, but that would require three Pioneer teams getting in – so they're going to be left out.
SoCon – Ooof. Chatty had a chance to make things simple and clinch this week, but they lost to Samford in OT. Chatty is guaranteed at least a tie for the title and whether they get the AQ would be dependent on who they're tied with. Chatty is done with their SoCon schedule. If Samford and Furman both lose next week, Chatty gets the AQ outright. If only Samford wins, Samford gets the AQ. If only Furman wins, Chatty gets the AQ. If both win, we will have a 3-way tie. They are all 1-1 head-to-head so then it goes to their records against the next ranked team. At least 3 teams will be tied for 4th place with 4-4 records, and I honestly don't know how the SoCon will decide from there. Combined record against all 4th place teams? Do they factor in GSU and Appy? I just don't know and the SoCon website hasn't been any help (as of Sunday). This AQ question is important because I do not see all three teams getting in. There might be room for one At-Large here. (For some reason, last week I had it noted that Furman couldn't win the AQ. I'm not sure how I got to that conclusion, so I've taken that away.)
Southland – SE Louisiana took care of Sam Houston State to clinch the Southland AQ. With a record of 9-2 and a streak of 8 convincing wins, they will be getting a Seed. In 2nd place is McNeese State with 8 wins. They'll easily get an At-Large. Sam Houston is in bigger trouble. Not only did they lose the game with SE Louisiana to drop to a solid 3rd place in the Southland, but their starting QB was injured. It looks like the double-threat QB has a broken collarbone and which means he's likely done for the season. With two of their 8 wins being of a questionable variety, SHS must win next week's game against Central Arkansas just to reach 7 legitimate wins. And now they have to do it with an inexperienced QB. They will be on the bubble. (And don't let the Sports Network Poll fool you – there was no way SHS was the #4 team in the country going into this past week. They weren't even the top team in the Southland. The results of that poll is usually laughable.)
Predictions
This is based on what I think will happen over the next week and what the committee will do...I'll know I'll get some things wrong.....
Conference Titles (AQ)
CAA – Maine – clinched
Big Sky – EWU – clinched
Big South – Coastal Carolina
MEAC – Bethune-Cookman
MVC – ND State – clinched
NEC – Sacred Heart – clinched
OVC – E. Illinois – clinched
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Marist
SoCon – Chatty
Southland – SE Louisiana – clinched
This leaves 26 teams for 13 spots. After getting rid of the weakest teams (Pioneer, Monmouth, etc.), we are left with 23 teams:
Towson
Delaware
W&M
JMU
UNH
Northern Arizona
Montana
Montana State
Southern Utah
Charleston Southern
SC State
Youngstown State
SD State
No. Iowa
Jacksonville State
Tenn. State
Tenn.-Martin
EKU
Fordham
Samford
Furman
Sam Houston State
McNeese State
My final 13 of those (after looking at the final games):
Towson
Delaware, W&M, or UNH (2 out of the 3)
Northern Arizona
Montana
SC State
Youngstown State or SD State (the winner of their game)
No. Iowa
Tennessee State
Jacksonville State
Fordham
Samford
McNeese State
Last few out (in no particular order):
JMU – I think they will lose to Towson
Montana State – I think they will lose to Montana
SUU – I think they will lose to NAU
Charleston Southern – weak schedule
Tenn-Martin – Losing to EIU will drop them to #4 in the OVC
Furman – I am assuming they don't win the AQ and finish #3 in the SoCon
Sam Houston State – I think they will lose to Central Ark. and those “transitional” opponents will hurt
Total by conference:
CAA – 4
Big Sky – 3
Big South – 1
MEAC – 2
MVC – 3
NEC – 1
OVC – 3
Patriot – 2
Pioneer – 1
SoCon – 2
Southland – 2