A few days before the 2011 election, I tried to spitball the outcome of every one of the 308 ridings. As you can see, I failed massively by refusing to believe polls that showed unprecedented levels of support for the NDP in Quebec and a collapse of the Bloc Québécois.
I wrote then:
We just don’t believe. So thin are résumés of NDP candidates in Quebec, so improvised is the party’s ground game, that they simply cannot get out enough votes to support the current seat projections in Quebec, some exceeding 50.
The seat counts I predicted then (and actual outcome): Conservative 156 (166), Liberal 60 (34), New Democrat 45 (103), Bloc Québécois 46 (4), Green Party 0 (1), Independent 1 (0).
Despite this humiliating flop, I’m risking further public ridicule by attempting this again, with even more seats to play with.
Below, I’ve taken wild guesses at the winner of all 338 ridings in this election.
In aggregate, I foresee the narrowest of Tories minorities: Conservatives with 127 seats, Liberals 125, New Democrats 76, Bloc Quebecois 7, one each from the Greens and Forces et Démocratie, and a single independent (Alberta’s Brent Rathgeber).
Yes, I have already said on television — as early as last fall on CBC and recently as mid-September on CPAC — that I expected the Conservatives’ superior ground game, the 30 new ridings, the luxurious child-benefit cheques, and the tangible advantages from the Fair Elections Act would all conspire to bring Stephen Harper another majority government.
That prediction of a Tory majority, I now concede, looks utterly deranged.
Related
Robyn Urback: In praise of the long campaign: Election 2015 offered a proper skewering of parties and leaders
Jen Gerson: Worst. Election. Ever.
But I’m not convinced that the trend in current public-opinion polling, which variously puts the Liberals six to seven points ahead in the final furlongs, will hold once the ballots are summed.
Pollsters consistently underestimate the Tory vote and the Conservatives will benefit from extensive television advertising buys over the final weekend, particularly during Saturday’s Blue Jays playoff game, when they substantially outspent their opponents on ads.
And, if anyone will suffer from voters with second thoughts in polling booth, it surely will be Trudeau’s Liberals.
In sum, the Liberals will narrowly win the popular vote but lose the seat count (as they did in 1979 and 1957).
I’ll go even further to predict the post-election wrangling.
My wild-eyed guess: Facing potential loss of power, senior Conservative emissaries will privately reach out to the Liberals in the days after the vote to negotiate some form of support.
That support will be granted only with onerous conditions, including the appointment of a prime minister who is not Stephen Harper. (Remember that, when asked about post-vote scenarios, Trudeau has repeatedly said he wouldn’t prop up a Harper government. He has been less clear about support for the Walmsley Scenario of a Conservative government without Harper.)
This will lead to internal strife in the party, with Harper loyalists pitted against those newly-elected and re-elected Conservatives who would like to keep their jobs for at least a few months more.
While this civil war unfolds, Harper will delay recalling parliament. Ned Franks and Peter Russell will get way more ink. There will be pro-democracy demonstrations on the Hill. Wolf Blitzer will report live on Canada in Crisis! from outside the Langevin Block. Or maybe not.
Back to the picks….
ATLANTIC CANADA
The Conservatives manage to retain four seats in New Brunswick — here, the embarrassed Tories who don’t admit to pollsters they’ll vote blue — but the rest of the region is a wipe out. Prince Edward Island goes completely Liberal. The NDP isn’t completely obliterated by the race to red and hangs on to seats in Nova Scotia, including popular and hardworking MP Megan Leslie’s. Painfully, the Tories cough up Peter MacKay’s old seat.
Liberal 23 seats, NDP 5, Conservative 4.
New Brunswick
Acadie–Bathurst: Jason Godin (NDP)
Beauséjour: Dominic LeBlanc (Liberal)
Fredericton: Keith Ashfield (Conservative)
Fundy Royal: Rob Moore (Conservative)
Madawaska–Restigouche: René Arseneault (Liberal)
Miramichi–Grand Lake: Pat Finnigan (Liberal)
Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe: Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Liberal)
New Brunswick Southwest: John Williamson (Conservative)
Saint John–Rothesay: Rodney Weston (Conservative)
Tobique–Mactaquac: TJ Harvey (Liberal)
Newfoundland and Labrador
Avalon: Ken McDonald (Liberal)
Bonavista–Burin–Trinity: Judy M. Foote (Liberal)
Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame: Scott Simms (Liberal)
Labrador: Yvonne Jones (Liberal)
Long Range Mountains: Gudie Hutchings (Liberal)
St. John’s East: Jack Harris (NDP)
St. John’s South–Mount Pearl: Seamus O’Regan (Liberal)
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton–Canso: Rodger Cuzner (Liberal)
Central Nova: Sean Fraser (Liberal)
Cumberland–Colchester: Bill Casey (Liberal)
Dartmouth–Cole Harbour: Robert Chisholm (NDP)
Halifax: Megan Leslie (NDP)
Halifax West: Geoff Regan (Liberal)
Kings–Hants: Scott Brison (Liberal)
Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook: Peter Stoffer (NDP)
South Shore–St. Margarets: Bernadette Jordan (Liberal)
Sydney–Victoria: Mark Eyking (Liberal)
West Nova: Colin Fraser (Liberal)
Prince Edward Island
Cardigan: Lawrence MacAulay (Liberal)
Charlottetown: Sean Casey (Liberal)
Egmont: Bobby Morrissey (Liberal)
Malpeque: Wayne Easter (Liberal)
QUEBEC
Heretical as this may seem, expect the Tories to do better than expected in Quebec and actually gain seats. The Liberals expand support beyond the Island of Montreal and triple their seat count versus 2011. Still, the NDP wins the province as Quebeckers mostly resist the Bloc and remain fond of the young, neophyte New Democrats they sent to Ottawa with Jack Layton in 2011.
NDP 34, Liberals 22, Conservatives 14,Bloc Québécois 7, Forces et Démocratie 1.
Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou: Romeo Saganash (NDP)
Abitibi–Témiscamingue: Christine Moore (NDP)
Ahuntsic-Cartierville: Mélanie Joly (Liberal)
Alfred-Pellan: Rosane Doré Lefebvre (NDP)
Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation: Jonathan Beauchamp (Bloc Québécois)
Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia: Jean-François Fortin (Forces et Démocratie)
Beauce: Maxime Bernier (Conservative)
Beauport–Limoilou: Alupa Clarke (Conservative)
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix: Sylvie Boucher (Conservative)
Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel: Louis Plamondon (Bloc Québécois)
Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis: Steven Blaney (Conservative)
Beloeil–Chambly: Matthew Dubé (NDP)
Berthier–Maskinongé: Ruth Ellen Brosseau (NDP)
Bourassa: Emmanuel Dubourg (Liberal)
Brome–Missisquoi: Denis Paradis (Liberal)
Brossard–Saint-Lambert: Alexandra Mendès (Liberal)
Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles: Pierre Paul-Hus (Conservative)
Châteauguay–Lacolle: Sylvain Chicoine (NDP)
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord: Dany Morin (NDP)
Compton–Stanstead: Marie-Claude Bibeau (Liberal)
Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle: Anju Dhillon (Liberal)
Drummond: François Choquette (NDP)
Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine: Philip Toone (NDP)
Gatineau: Françoise Boivin (NDP)
Hochelaga: Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet (NDP)
Honoré-Mercier: Pablo Rodriguez (Liberal)
Hull–Aylmer: Greg Fergus (Liberal)
Joliette: Gabriel Ste-Marie (Bloc Québécois)
Jonquière: Karine Trudel (NDP)
La Pointe-de-l’Île: Ève Péclet (NDP)
La Prairie: Pierre Chicoine (NDP)
Lac-Saint-Jean: Denis Lebel (Conservative)
Lac-Saint-Louis: Francis Scarpaleggia (Liberal)
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun: David Lametti (Liberal)
Laurentides–Labelle: Simon-Pierre Landry (NDP)
Laurier–Sainte-Marie: Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Québécois)
Laval–Les Îles: Fayçal El-Khoury (Liberal)
Lévis–Lotbinière: Jacques Gourde (Conservative)
Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne: Sherry Romanado (Liberal)
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert: Michael O’Grady (Liberal)
Louis-Hébert: Denis Blanchette (NDP)
Louis-Saint-Laurent: Gérard Deltell (Conservative)
Manicouagan: Jonathan Genest-Jourdain (NDP)
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: Marie-Josée Lemieux (NDP)
Mégantic–L’Érable: Luc Berthold (Conservative)
Mirabel: Mylène Freeman (NDP)
Montarville: Djaouida Sellah (NDP)
Montcalm: Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois)
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup: Bernard Généreux (Conservative)
Mount Royal: Anthony Housefather (Liberal)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount: Marc Garneau (Liberal)
Outremont: Tom Mulcair (NDP)
Papineau: Justin Trudeau (Liberal)
Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères: Xavier Barsalou-Duval (Bloc Québécois)
Pierrefonds–Dollard: Frank Baylis (Liberal)
Pontiac: Mathieu Ravignat (NDP)
Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier: Joël Godin (Conservative)
Québec: Pierre-Thomas Asselin (Conservative)
Repentigny: Jonathan Lefebvre (Conservative)
Richmond–Arthabaska: Alain Rayes (Conservative)
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques: Guy Caron (NDP)
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: Laurin Liu (NDP)
Rivière-du-Nord: Pierre Dionne Labelle (NDP)
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie: Alexandre Boulerice (NDP)
Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot: Brigitte Sansoucy (NDP)
Saint-Jean: Hans Marotte (NDP)
Saint-Laurent: Stéphane Dion (Liberal)
Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel: Nicola Di Iorio (Liberal)
Saint-Maurice–Champlain: François-Philippe Champagne (Liberal)
Salaberry–Suroît: Claude DeBellefeuille (Bloc Québécois)
Shefford: Claire Mailhot (NDP)
Sherbrooke: Pierre-Luc Dusseault (NDP)
Terrebonne: Charmaine Borg (NDP)
Thérèse-De Blainville: Alain Giguère (NDP)
Trois-Rivières: Robert Aubin (NDP)
Vaudreuil–Soulanges: Jamie Nicholls (NDP)
Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs: Marc Miller (Liberal)
Vimy: Eva Nassif (Liberal)
ONTARIO
As polls suggest, the Liberal return to relevance comes here, almost all of it at the expense of the Conservatives in Toronto and environs, by running the table in Mississauga and holding off the NDP downtown. Liberals Marco Mendicino and Mark Holland upset cabinet ministers Joe Oliver and Chris Alexander. The Tories retain their strength in rural Ontario.
Liberal 63, Conservative 41, NDP 17.
Ajax: Mark Holland (Liberal)
Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing: Carol Hughes (NDP)
Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill: Costas Menegakis (Conservative)
Barrie–Innisfil: John Brassard (Conservative)
Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte: Alex Nuttall (Conservative)
Bay of Quinte: Neil Ellis (Liberal)
Beaches–East York: Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Liberal)
Brampton Centre: Bal Gosal (Conservative)
Brampton East: Raj Grewal (Liberal)
Brampton North: Ruby Sahota (Liberal)
Brampton South: Sonia Sidhu (Liberal)
Brampton West: Kamal Khera (Liberal)
Brantford–Brant: Phil McColeman (Conservative)
Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound: Larry Miller (Conservative)
Burlington: Mike Wallace (Conservative)
Cambridge: Gary Goodyear (Conservative)
Carleton: Pierre Poilievre (Conservative)
Chatham-Kent–Leamington: Dave Van Kesteren (Conservative)
Davenport: Andrew Cash (NDP)
Don Valley East: Yasmin Ratansi (Liberal)
Don Valley North: Geng Tan (Liberal)
Don Valley West: Rob Oliphant (Liberal)
Dufferin–Caledon: David Allan Tilson (Conservative)
Durham: Erin O’Toole (Conservative)
Eglinton–Lawrence: Marco Mendicino (Liberal)
Elgin–Middlesex–London: Karen Louise Vecchio (Conservative)
Essex: Tracey Ramsey (NDP)
Etobicoke Centre: Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Liberal)
Etobicoke North: Kirsty Duncan (Liberal)
Etobicoke–Lakeshore: James Maloney (Liberal)
Flamborough–Glanbrook: David Sweet (Conservative)
Glengarry–Prescott–Russell: Pierre Lemieux (Conservative)
Guelph: Lloyd Longfield (Liberal)
Haldimand–Norfolk: Diane Finley (Conservative)
Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock: Jamie Schmale (Conservative)
Hamilton Centre: David Christopherson (NDP)
Hamilton East–Stoney Creek: Wayne Marston (NDP)
Hamilton Mountain: Scott Duvall (NDP)
Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas: Filomena Tassi (Liberal)
Hastings–Lennox and Addington: Daryl Kramp (Conservative)
Humber River–Black Creek: Judy Sgro (Liberal)
Huron–Bruce: Allan Thompson (Liberal)
Kanata–Carleton: Karen McCrimmon (Liberal)
Kenora: Bob Nault (Liberal)
King–Vaughan: Deb Schulte (Liberal)
Kingston and the Islands: Mark Gerretsen (Liberal)
Kitchener Centre: Raj Saini (Liberal)
Kitchener South–Hespeler: Marwan Tabbara (Liberal)
Kitchener–Conestoga: Tim Louis (Liberal)
Lambton–Kent–Middlesex: Ken Filson (Liberal)
Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston: Scott Reid (Conservative)
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes: Gord Brown (Conservative)
London North Centre: Peter Fragiskatos (Liberal)
London West: Ed Holder (Conservative)
London–Fanshawe: Irene Mathyssen (NDP)
Markham–Stouffville: Jane Philpott (Liberal)
Markham–Thornhill: John McCallum (Liberal)
Markham–Unionville: Bang-Gu Jiang (Liberal)
Milton: Lisa Raitt (Conservative)
Mississauga Centre: Omar Alghabra (Liberal)
Mississauga East–Cooksville: Peter Fonseca (Liberal)
Mississauga–Erin Mills: Iqra Khalid (Liberal)
Mississauga–Lakeshore: Sven Spengemann (Liberal)
Mississauga–Malton: Navdeep Bains (Liberal)
Mississauga–Streetsville: Gagan Sikand (Liberal)
Nepean: Andy Wang (Conservative)
Newmarket–Aurora: Lois Brown (Conservative)
Niagara Centre: Malcolm Allen (NDP)
Niagara Falls: Rob Nicholson (Conservative)
Niagara West: Dean Allison (Conservative)
Nickel Belt: Claude Gravelle (NDP)
Nipissing–Timiskaming: Anthony Rota (Liberal)
Northumberland–Peterborough South: Kim Rudd (Liberal)
Oakville: Terence Young (Conservative)
Oakville North–Burlington: Pam Damoff (Liberal)
Orléans: Andrew Leslie (Liberal)
Oshawa: Colin Carrie (Conservative)
Ottawa Centre: Paul Dewar (NDP)
Ottawa South: David McGuinty (Liberal)
Ottawa West–Nepean: Anita Vandenbeld (Liberal)
Ottawa–Vanier: Mauril Bélanger (Liberal)
Oxford: Dave MacKenzie (Conservative)
Parkdale–High Park: Peggy Nash (NDP)
Parry Sound–Muskoka: Tony Clement (Conservative)
Perth–Wellington: John Nater (Conservative)
Peterborough–Kawartha: Maryam Monsef (Liberal)
Pickering–Uxbridge: Corneliu Chisu (Conservative)
Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke: Jeff Lehoux (Liberal)
Richmond Hill: Majid Jowhari (Liberal)
Sarnia–Lambton: Dave McPhail (Liberal)
Sault Ste. Marie: Terry Sheehan (Liberal)
Scarborough Centre: Salma Zahid (Liberal)
Scarborough North: Shaun Chen (Liberal)
Scarborough Southwest: Bill Blair (Liberal)
Scarborough–Agincourt: Arnold Chan (Liberal)
Scarborough–Guildwood: John McKay (Liberal)
Scarborough–Rouge Park: Gary Anandasangaree (Liberal)
Simcoe North: Bruce Stanton (Conservative)
Simcoe–Grey: Kellie Leitch (Conservative)
Spadina–Fort York: Adam Vaughan (Liberal)
St. Catharines: Rick Dykstra (Conservative)
Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry: Guy Lauzon (Conservative)
Sudbury: Paul Lefebvre (Liberal)
Thornhill: Peter Kent (Conservative)
Thunder Bay–Rainy River: John Rafferty (NDP)
Thunder Bay–Superior North: Andrew Foulds (NDP)
Timmins–James Bay: Charlie Angus (NDP)
Toronto Centre: Bill Morneau (Liberal)
Toronto–Danforth: Craig Scott (NDP)
Toronto–St. Paul’s: Carolyn Bennett (Liberal)
University–Rosedale: Chrystia Freeland (Liberal)
Vaughan–Woodbridge: Francesco Sorbara (Liberal)
Waterloo: Peter Braid (Conservative)
Wellington–Halton Hills: Michael Chong (Conservative)
Whitby: Celina Caesar-Chavannes (Liberal)
Willowdale: Chungsen Leung (Conservative)
Windsor West: Brian Masse (NDP)
Windsor–Tecumseh: Cheryl Hardcastle (NDP)
York Centre: Michael Levitt (Liberal)
York South–Weston: Ahmed Hussen (Liberal)
York–Simcoe: Peter Van Loan (Conservative)
MANITOBA
A small erosion for the Tories here, as they cough up three seats to the Liberals — including Joyce Bateman’s Winnipeg South Centre, chiefly over her bizarre remarks about enemies of Israel — while the NDP holds pat (Martin, that is).
Conservative 8, Liberals 4, NDP 2.
Brandon–Souris: Larry Maguire (Conservative)
Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley: Steven Fletcher (Conservative)
Churchill–Keewatinook Aski: Niki Ashton (NDP)
Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa: Robert Sopuck (Conservative)
Elmwood–Transcona: Lawrence Toet (Conservative)
Kildonan–St. Paul: Jim Bell (Conservative)
Portage–Lisgar: Candice Bergen (Conservative)
Provencher: Ted Falk (Conservative)
Saint Boniface–Saint Vital: Dan Vandal (Liberal)
Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman: James Bezan (Conservative)
Winnipeg Centre: Pat Martin (NDP)
Winnipeg North: Kevin Lamoureux (Liberal)
Winnipeg South: Terry Duguid (Liberal)
Winnipeg South Centre: Jim Carr (Liberal)
SASKATCHEWAN
Yes, the redraw of riding boundaries the Conservatives so actively resisted makes a slight difference as urban seats are broken off from the rural areas. Watch for the NDP to gain one seat in each of Regina and Saskatoon. A strong national campaign saves Ralph Goodale’s lone Liberal seat and assures him a place at Justin Trudeau’s cabinet table.
Conservative 11, Liberal 1, NDP 2.
Battlefords–Lloydminster: Gerry Ritz (Conservative)
Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek: Kelly Block (Conservative)
Cypress Hills–Grasslands: David Anderson (Conservative)
Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River: Rob Clarke (Conservative)
Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan: Tom Lukiwski (Conservative)
Prince Albert: Randy Hoback (Conservative)
Regina–Lewvan: Erin Weir (NDP)
Regina–Qu’Appelle: Andrew Scheer (Conservative)
Regina–Wascana: Ralph Goodale (Liberal)
Saskatoon West: Randy Donauer (Conservative)
Saskatoon–Grasswood: Scott Bell (NDP)
Saskatoon–University: Brad Trost (Conservative)
Souris–Moose Mountain: Robert Gordon Kitchen (Conservative)
Yorkton–Melville: Cathay Wagantall (Conservative)
Yukon: Ryan Leef (Conservative)
ALBERTA
The Blue Fortress is finally breached, with the heathen hordes overtaking the ramparts in Edmonton. Calgary Centre MP Joan Crockatt’s career in federal politics ends Monday. Even Oil Sands City goes Liberal with a Kyle Harrietha upset in Fort Mac. Should the Liberals prevail nationally, watch for long-time Edmonton city councillor Amarjeet Sohi to become Alberta minister and a byelection in Calgary Heritage.
Conservative 26, Liberal 4, NDP 3, Independent 1.
Banff–Airdrie: Blake Richards (Conservative)
Battle River–Crowfoot: Kevin Sorenson (Conservative)
Bow River: Martin Shields (Conservative)
Calgary Centre: Kent Hehr (Liberal)
Calgary Confederation: Len Webber (Conservative)
Calgary Forest Lawn: Deepak Obhrai (Conservative)
Calgary Heritage: Stephen J. Harper (Conservative)
Calgary Midnapore: Jason Kenney (Conservative)
Calgary Nose Hill: Michelle Rempel (Conservative)
Calgary Rocky Ridge: Pat Kelly (Conservative)
Calgary Shepard: Tom Kmiec (Conservative)
Calgary Signal Hill: Ron Liepert (Conservative)
Calgary Skyview: Devinder Shory (Conservative)
Edmonton Centre: Gil McGowan (NDP)
Edmonton Griesbach: Janis Irwin (NDP)
Edmonton Manning: Sukhdev Aujla (Liberal)
Edmonton Mill Woods: Amarjeet Sohi (Liberal)
Edmonton Riverbend: Matt Jeneroux (Conservative)
Edmonton Strathcona: Linda Duncan (NDP)
Edmonton West: Kelly McCauley (Conservative)
Edmonton–Wetaskiwin: Mike Lake (Conservative)
Foothills: John Barlow (Conservative)
Fort McMurray–Cold Lake: Kyle Harrietha (Liberal)
Grande Prairie–Mackenzie: Chris Warkentin (Conservative)
Lakeland: Shannon Stubbs (Conservative)
Lethbridge: Rachael Harder (Conservative)
Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner: Jim Hillyer (Conservative)
Peace River–Westlock: Arnold Viersen (Conservative)
Red Deer–Lacombe: Blaine Calkins (Conservative)
Red Deer–Mountain View: Earl Dreeshen (Conservative)
Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan: Garnett Genuis (Conservative)
St. Albert–Edmonton: Brent Rathgeber (Independent)
Sturgeon River–Parkland: Rona Ambrose (Conservative)
Yellowhead: Jim Eglinski (Conservative)
BRITISH COLUMBIA
The Liberals pick up in B.C. but chiefly because of the additional seats in play. Otherwise, expect incumbency to maintain the status quo, with the Tories popular vote shaken but seats count largely stable. (Note to readers: I might be completely wrong about this.)
Conservative 22, NDP 12, Liberals 7, Green 1.
Abbotsford: Ed Fast (Conservative)
Burnaby North–Seymour: Mike Little (Conservative)
Burnaby South: Kennedy Stewart (NDP)
Cariboo–Prince George: Todd Doherty (Conservative)
Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola: Dan Albas (Conservative)
Chilliwack–Hope: Mark Strahl (Conservative)
Cloverdale–Langley City: Dean Drysdale (Conservative)
Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam: Douglas Horne (Conservative)
Courtenay–Alberni: John Duncan (Conservative)
Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: Alistair MacGregor (NDP)
Delta: Kerry-Lynne Findlay (Conservative)
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke: Randall Garrison (NDP)
Fleetwood–Port Kells: Nina Grewal (Conservative)
Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo: Cathy McLeod (Conservative)
Kelowna–Lake Country: Ron Cannan (Conservative)
Kootenay–Columbia: David Wilks (Conservative)
Langley–Aldergrove: Mark Warawa (Conservative)
Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon: Jati Sidhu (Liberal)
Nanaimo–Ladysmith: Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)
New Westminster–Burnaby: Peter Julian (NDP)
North Island–Powell River: Laura Smith (Conservative)
North Okanagan–Shuswap: Mel Arnold (Conservative)
North Vancouver: Andrew Saxton (Conservative)
Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge: Mike Murray (Conservative)
Port Moody–Coquitlam: Fin Donnelly (NDP)
Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies: Bob Zimmer (Conservative)
Richmond Centre: Lawrence Woo (Liberal)
Saanich–Gulf Islands: Elizabeth May (Green Party)
Skeena–Bulkley Valley: Nathan Cullen (NDP)
South Okanagan–West Kootenay: Marshall Neufeld (Conservative)
South Surrey–White Rock: Dianne Lynn Watts (Conservative)
Steveston–Richmond East: Joe Peschisolido (Liberal)
Surrey Centre: Jasbir Sandhu (NDP)
Surrey–Newton: Jinny Sims (NDP)
Vancouver Centre: Hedy Fry (Liberal)
Vancouver East: Jenny Kwan (NDP)
Vancouver Granville: Jody Wilson-Raybould (Liberal)
Vancouver Kingsway: Don Davies (NDP)
Vancouver Quadra: Joyce Murray (Liberal)
Vancouver South: Harjit S. Sajjan (Liberal)
Victoria: Murray Rankin (NDP)
West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country: John Weston (Conservative)
The North
Nunavut: Hunter Tootoo (Liberal)
Yukon: Ryan Leef (Conservative)
Northwest Territories: Dennis Fraser Bevington (NDP)
As always, readers are invited to begin mocking my picks anytime after the polls close Monday night, via email at gmcgregor@ottawacitizen.com or by public taunting on Twitter @glen_mcgregor.