Old, Handicapped and from the wrong part of town…
Even the mighty Kauto Star & Denman couldn’t contend with father time…
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Just over a week to go until the greatest show on earth consumes all before it! Mrs NTF has already consigned herself to being a temporary Cheltenham widow for the next couple of weeks and the NTF hounds, well lets just say it may be best if they learn to walk themselves next week!!
There are trends, stats and opinions flying about all over the place at the minute…and I’m going to throw my 3 tuppence worth into the ring on this Blog post!
The 3 stats I’m going to garnish you with today have been taken from my own ‘NTF Cheltenham Festival Stat Attack Guide‘ that full NTF members were provided with yesterday. The 26 page guide is packed full of relevant information to help them with their Festival preparations. If you join NTF for Cheltenham Festival week then you will also gain access to this in-depth guide.
I’m a huge fan of trends and stats but I don’t necessarily live and die by them. I prefer to use them as part of the wider picture and suggest you also do the same.
Plenty of people try and knock punters who use trends & stats but that doesn’t bother me in the slightest. I have very little time for those that would rather spend their time trying to diminish one persons preferred approach rather than concentrating on perfecting their own methods. It’s saddens me (momentarily) when people in the media try and belittle an approach that they don’t agree with; concentrate on what you are doing yourself instead of mocking those that do something different. That goes for all walks of life, not just horse racing.
Anyway enough of the life lessons, let’s crack on into the stats…
*figures have been sourced from the excellent Proform Database and look at the 2008 to 2013 Festivals
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The ‘oldies’ have really been struggling to land a significant blow at recent Festivals…
By ‘oldies’ I mean those aged 11 or older.
We all have our old favourites in the jumping game but consider the following stat before letting your heart rule your head…
Runners aged 11+ at the past 6 Cheltenham Festivals
2/190 | 1% S/R |+£143.05 BFLSP
Win & Place –25/190 | 13% S/R
Don’t be fooled by that healthy looking LSP figure as this figure has been boosted by the 2008 RP Chase victory of the legend that is Mister McGoldrick (Betfair sp of 310.00!!). That win heavily skews the stats.
The simple facts are that the old boys (and girls) struggle to get their heads in front at the Cheltenham Festival. This isn’t a place for old legs and it is the younger generation that holds sway here. Plenty of oldies have tried to recapture the golden days but a paltry 2 winners from 190 runners tells you all you need to know; approach the older runners with a hefty smack of caution.
There have been enough of them supported in the market to make them an under-performing group, statistically this is a relevant angle.
The age stats above do include the Foxhunters Chase and the Cross-Country Chase, both races that can be fairly heavily stacked with ‘oldies’. Of the last 6 renewals of those 2 races only 1 has been won by a horse older than 10. In fact only 3 have been won by a horse aged older than 9!
Horses that have fallen foul of father time in recent Festivals include Garde Champetre, Kauto Star, Denman, Sizing Europe, Big Zeb & Our Vic; age pays little attention to reputation or status!
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Runners that had their last start at Sandown have been struggling to convert at the Festival…
That’s not just at the Sandown meeting the weekend before the Festival either…
Runners that had their last start at Sandown
3/170 | 2% S/R | -£102.23 BFLSP
Win & Place 25/170 | 15% S/R
This certainly isn’t an angle that I would rely heavily upon but this specific one catches my attention because as a group they are seriously under-performing.
Sandown is one of the premier National Hunt tracks but having your last start there before tackling your chosen festival target has been a real hindrance to your chances of glory. Does the track leave more of a mark than expected? Is there something in a horse going from the right-handed turns of Sandown to the left-handed turns of Cheltenham that doesn’t sit right? Could it be something to do with having to tackle those tricky Railway Fences down the back-straight?
I don’t know the conclusive answer to why it isn’t an advised route to take but I wanted to dig just a wee bit deeper to see if a wide search backs up the Festival findings. With that in mind I looked at all races run at Cheltenham over the past 6 years (Festival and non-Festival) and checked out the record of those that had their last start at Sandown.
Here is what my research uncovered…
17/334 | 5% S/R | -£156.61 BFLSP
Win & Place 70/334 | 21% S/R
It is slightly better on the strike-rate front but it is still massively under-performing on the ‘producing winners’ front and to my mind there is definitely something in it.
Either the form from a last time out Sandown race is over-rated or there is something in the switch from Sandown to Cheltenham that really doesn’t sit well with a horse…
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It is extremely difficult for a horse to step up out of the handicap ranks…
That is to step out of a Handicap race last time out into a Non-Handicap race at the Festival.
There have been 93 Non-Handicap races at the last 6 Cheltenham Festivals – 90 of them have been won by a horse that contested a Non-Handicap race on their last start.
In percentage terms that is 97% of winners of the Cheltenham Festival NON-Handicap races also took in a NON-Handicap race on their last start.
194 have tried to step up from handicap company into non-handicap company and only 3 have manged to succeed.
BOBS WORTH managed it in fine style last year but he is a high-class exception and as a group these horses stepping up from Non-Handicap company into the top grade races are under-performing.
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2014 NTF Cheltenham Festival Service – Doors Open Tuesday 4th March!
Yep that’s right, as of tomorrow (Tuesday 14th March) I will be opening up a limited number of slots on my full NTF service exclusively for Cheltenham week.
If you want to join and are not already on the FREE NTF list then head here and pop your name in the box. Not only is this where you will be first to receive the news that the doors are open but you will also be able to grab a selection of FREE NTF guides to get stuck into (including my alternative look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup).
Details about the NTF Cheltenham service can be found here >> NTF Cheltenham Service
Cheers
Ben (NTF)
The stats in this post have been sourced from the highly recommended Proform Professional Database
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