Here are my predictions for the most important races in the primary, the state legislative races.
While some bloggers have chosen to focus on the races that Lee Newspapers once deemed important, the real question on everyone’s mind is who will prevail tomorrow night- the TEA Party extremists or the main street republicans. Nowhere is this battle for the GOP hotter than where incumbents face challengers – from the left and from the right.
These are among the key races to watch tomorrow night.
Certainly I’ll also be watching what happens with the TEA Party’s fake Trojan horse dems, and what happens in primaries with MT Family Foundation recruits like Debra Lamm in Livingston and Marissa Stockton in East Helena. Let me know if you agree or disagree and what other races you’re watching in the comments.
House
HD 17
Rep. Christi Clark of Choteau vs. TEA Parter Jim Anderson. Anderson is the TEA Partier who hijacked the Teton County Republican Party’s annual shrimp peel fundraiser for the TEA Party. Local Republicans are not pleased. Prediction: Clark
HD 18
Rep. Rob Cook of Conrad vs. endorsed TEA Partier Ann Morren. Prediction: Cook
HD 19
Rep. Roger Hagan of Great Falls vs. TEA Partier Randy Pinocci, who is backed by Gary Marbut. Prediction: Hagan
HD 27
Rep. Roy Hollandsworth of Brady vs. right winger Darrold Hutchinson. Prediction: Hollandsworth
HD 30
Rep. Ryan Osmundson of Buffalo/vs. Right-winger and 86-year-old Jim Paugh. Prediction: Osmundson
HD 40
Rep. Tom Berry vs. TEA Party winger Ray Gorman. Prediction: Berry
HD 53
TEA Party wingut Rep. Sarah Laszloffy, age 20 of Laurel, who attended a school which teaches you how to bring people back from the dead. No Joke. TEApublican Rep. Sarah Laszloffy is an alum of the Bethel School of Supernatural Ministry. (She’s also the daughter of MT Family Foundation wackjob Jeff Laszloffy) vs. former long-time legislator Mark Noennig, well respected by the business community. Prediction: Toss-up. Noennig can win this and voters would be much better represented by him, but papa bear Laszloffy is likely to pull out all the stops to keep his
pawn
daughter in office.
HD 71
In Madison County, Rep. Ray Shaw vs. Birther Bob Wagner, a former Representative infamous for losing economic development for his district and making an ass of himself on national television. Voters already ousted Wagner in favor of Shaw once. Prediction: Shaw
HD 72
Rep. Jeff Wellborn of Dillan vs. TEA Party college Republican Brooke Erb. Prediction: Wellborn
HD 80
Rep. Mike Miller vs. Patrick Johnson/Ron Vandevendor. Prediction: Miller, since not enough Montanans will have heard of his political practices shennanigans. Miller is being challenged from the left by Patrick Johnson. If Miller is elected, the primary election won’t actually decided the final outcome, because Miller faces being thrown off the ballot for political practices violations. So does Art Wittich, and so do others.
HD 92
David “Doc” Moore of Missoula vs. Larry Dunham Prediction: Moore
HD 93
Rep. Dan Salomon of Ronan vs. challenger Frank Delgado. Frank Delgado is a responsible Main Street republican challenging GOPer Salomon from the left in a seat the dems will likely take back in November. Prediction: Salomon
HD 99
Rep. Ed Greef of Stevensville faces pro-business, pro-economic development non-nutjob Russ Vogel. Prediction: Greef
Senate
SD 4
Former Kalispell Mayor Tammy Fisher vs. Rep. Mark Blasdel of Kalispell Prediction: Blasdel is an inferior pick, but the power of incumbency is strong.
SD 9
Sen. Llew Jones/vs. TEA Party tax dodger Joe Large in Toole, Pondera and Glacier Counties. Prediction: Jones
SD 14
Anti-education lobbyist Rep. Kris Hansen of Havre is now running for Senate against Carl Mattson of Chester. Mattson is the superior candidate. He doesn’t favor using your tax dollars to subsidize private religious schools. Hansen has been paid to promote that terrible idea. Prediction: Hansen
SD 20
Rep. Duane Ankney (east of Billings) vs. TEA Party booster clubber Barry Usher of Colstrip Prediction: Ankney
SD 29
Right-winger birther Rep. Joanne Blyton of Red Lodge vs. Ultra nutjob and imbecile extraordinaire Rep. David Howard. Howard is a man who has, somewhat obsessively, devoted his Facebook page to criticizing gay sex. So of course, the GOP picked to lead the Children and Families legislative committee last session. Howard will face off against Red Lodge Republican Joanne Blyton. Blyton is a birther who actually voted for Birther Bob’s birther bill. (You can see a pdf of HB 205, the birther bill, vote here.) Yes, that’s the same bill that later made the Montana Legislature famous on CNN. Prediction: Tossup
SD 34
Rep. Gordon Vance vs. Rep. Ted Washburn both of Bozeman. One of the most bloody GOP primary battles of the year. Gordon Vance is the TEA Party nutjob who vote to conduct all state business in gold. Vance and is trying to
brutally attack
paint Washburn as a liberal and RINO. Problem is, Washburn is anything but. Washburn is under investigation for having been caught up in the Meth House Scandal, in which documents found at a meth house in Colorado were found to implicate certain GOP lawmakers for illegally coordinating with a dark money group, the American Tradition Partnership. Washburn also is the author of the famous bill to legalize hunting with silencers. It made the venerated2011 Montana Nutjob Bills list first published at Cowgirl Blog, and Washburn brought back the bill in 2013. Washburn has also called for what is essentially a poll tax, a bill that would allow only taxpayers to vote (poor people often don’t have a taxable income, nor, for that matter, do many farmers and ranchers). And he has often been the lead sponsor of bills that would make it more difficult for people to register to vote, especially if those people are likely to be democrats. Prediction: Tossup
SD 43
Sen. Scott Boulanger of Darby (appointed, not elected) vs. Rep. Pat Connell.Sen. Scott Boulanger R-Darby loves being pictured with the infamous bullet-ridden Obama outhouse. He’s running in a GOP primary against Rep. Pat Connell. Boulanger was one of ten Republicans who actually voted to take freedoms away from Montanans by keeping being gay an imprisonable offense in Montana. Voters in the area have already picked Pat Connell over Boulanger once before, when Boulanger ran for house in 2012. Boulanger lost, and the only reason he’s in office now is because he was appointed by the Ravalli County Republican Central Committee after another legislator was elected to the Public Service Commission. Prediction: Connell