2015-09-28



Sunday’s Quick Kick – NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football Recap & DFS Insights.

Matt takes a closer look at all the week 3 NFL action and shares the key highlights and takeaways from each game.

A great primer for week 4 NFL DFS contests on FanDuel & DraftKings and season-long fantasy football lineup decisions.

Do you ever have that feeling where you watch a bunch of games, maybe even take some notes, and then you go to play DFS and struggle to remember what you saw? Me too.

In addition to Brad’s amazing Moxy List (you really should be reading this, by the way, to gain a huge advantage on your opponents), I’m sadly going to admit I pretty much veg out on Sundays and watch Red Zone and try to take note of everything I saw. Please share your thoughts in the comments section as well.

Falcons 39, Cowboys 28

This was an interesting game. Early on, was everyone shocked by the competence of Brandon Weeden? The Cowboys raced out to an early lead, and if you owned Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, you probably were pretty happy. The Cowboys leaned heavily on the uglies up front to control the line of scrimmage, and that they did. Joseph Randle really impressed me, and while he lost passing down situations to Lance Dunbar, he finally showed the promise that had people thinking letting DeMarco Murray go for absurd money, albeit, inside the division, was a really dumb idea. Randle is looking like a good buy at a reasonable price point for a top running back. Outside of that, I’m not sure there’s much else I’m touching on the Cowboys pending Tony Romo‘s return. Then, the Falcons woke up and absolutely destroyed the second half.  Devonta Freeman tapped the brakes on the notion that Tevin Coleman had ripped the job away to himself, and this looks like it’s going to be a RBBC for the next 13 games. If Coleman can’t go next week, look at your matchups and Freeman may be a nice option.  Julio, partially in light of the Big Ben injury, proved to me he is just insane. One of the best plays of the day was when the Falcons lined Julio up in the slot on the left, used a fake counter to the right, and then dragged him across the formation for a flip pass from Matt Ryan and easy four yard score. Julio is obviously and absolute freak, and I think you have to take advantage of that talent as long as you can. You’re going to pay up, but I think it’s worth the price.

Colts 35, Titans 33

Hey, the Colts woke up! At 27-14, I was incredibly disappointed in the Colts and couldn’t believe they were really going to be 0-3. Perhaps the best part was the D stepping up, forcing Marcus Mariota into a few rushed decisions and helping turn this game around. Andrew Luck, again, was pretty bad. The lip service about getting the TEs more involved seemed to be just that, as Coby Fleener was better, but still only managed 4-54.  Frank Gore definitely looked better, and while he didn’t get to carry the load as much as most had hoped with the deficit, averaging better than 6 YPC was a nice reminder of his talent. TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief are still going to be nice plays week in and week out, and at this point, I think you are leaving Andre Johnson for dead. On the other side, Marcus Mariota had the kind of day we expect a rookie QB to have a lot of this year. The 362 passing yards and 2 TDs were nice, but the 2 picks were a killer.  Mariota, for me, is matchup dependent at this point and probably a GPP play only.  He continues to target Kendall Wright who went for 7-95-1.  Delanie Walker made a nice return and was easily their second best option through the air. I like both of them considering their price points moving forward. Out of 27 carries, Antonio Andrews emerged as the leader this week with 12 rushes and added another 12 yard catch late. I’m probably avoiding this backfield if I can.

Raiders 27, Browns 20

I’m probably insane, but I really like what this Oakland offense continues to put up. David Carr had another nice day, going over 300 yards and 2 TDs. It certainly helps when you have Amari Cooper to throw to, who is already inserting himself into the WR1 conversation. He commanded 11 targets and finished 8-134, and as good as today was, better days are yet to come.  Michael Crabtree was disappointing to me; I owned several shares of him this week as he had 20+ targets in the first two weeks, and he only converted 9 targets this week into 4-36.  Seth Roberts emerged nicely as a WR3 with 5 targets and racked up 3-56-1.  Latavius Murray broke out as nearly everyone thought he would, going 26-139-1 and gashing that Browns run D in the second half. On the other side, there’s not much to say about the Browns. Josh McCown was okay; he went over 300 yards passing but he didn’t impress me. The running game was a yawn; Kelvin Benjamin grabbed another TD but is lucky to have even shown that level of productivity. What really stood out for me is playing TEs against whomever the Raiders are playing. They got lit up again this week by Gary Barnidge to the tune of 6-105-1.  Find the Raiders each week and see who is going to eat up the middle of the field.

Bengals 28, Ravens 24

This was a really fun game to watch, as Twitter blew up with people writing Andy Dalton off again. After that pick-6, you could virtually hear the Bengals fans howling and before they could even finish their whining, AJ Green was breaking off an insane 80-TD catch and run.  Dalton, albeit partially his own fault because he put his team in a situation where they needed to pass, had another nice fantasy day.  AJ Green looked like vintage Green, putting up an absolute MONSTER effort.  Jeremy Hill was the “Starter” but I think Giovani Bernard was the more productive back, out-touching him on carries alone 13 to 12 and adding another 3 receptions. I think this backfield is another timeshare that you need to be careful with moving forward.  Tyler Eifert went from fantasy darling the first two weeks to a goose egg; unfortunately, a first half TD reception was called back. Marvin Jones continues to impress and put up another solid afternoon with 5-94-1. He is definitely worth of the WR3/FLEX conversation week in and week out.  For the Ravens, Joe Flacco was okay. His line looks great, and that’s all you are really looking for in fantasy, but I was not impressed. Steve Smith Sr. turned the clock back for an insane performance (13-186-2). I personally don’t think this is something you want to trust week in and week out, but if you must, go for it. Zach from our team made a good call on Crockett Gilmore, and I really liked what I saw, even if the line only reflected 3-40. I think he continued to get more attention and targets. Outside of that? The running game was non-existent and I don’t think there’s much else to talk about.

Patriots 51, Jags 17

This went about as everyone expected.  Tom Brady absolutely shredded the Jaguars repeatedly with only 9 incompletions on the day. He also threw his 400th TD pass and Danny Amendola inadvertently gave it away to a fan. Hilarious. Rob Gronkowski somehow quietly racked up 4-101 and certainly did not provide ROI for that price point. Julian Edelman saw another 11 targets and is someone you have to keep an eye on each week. The running back situation was really interesting. When the game was close, Dion Lewis appeared to be the #1 back; he had a nice afternoon and had an early rushing score, but finished with 13 touches, 67 total yards, and 1 TD. LeGarrette Blount did LeGarrette Blount things, and if you started him Sunday, you were rewarded with 18-78-3.  Belichick clearly trusts Blount so I’ll be curious to continue to watch this situation. For the Jaguars, wow, Blake Bortles was horrible. He was wildly inconsistent and missed receivers constantly; in the first half, the Patriots were determined not to let Allen Robinson go off and gave him bracket coverage. Bortles seemed pretty confused and this one was over in the first 30 minutes.  Allen Hurns had a nice long score, but it came in busted coverage.  The running game was terrible. This was a bad effort all around by the Jags and I really am struggling to see how I’m playing many Jags moving forward.

Panthers 27, Saints 22

My preconceived notion before this game that Cam Newton was the entire offense was confirmed today.  Cam had a huge day, surpassing 300 yards passing with 2 TDs and adding another 30 yards rushing and a score. Thankfully, the majority of Cam’s looks went Greg Olsen‘s way, as he received another 11 targets and converted this to 8-134-2. I think Olsen continues to thrust himself into the top-tier TE conversation.  Outside of that, I’m not sure there’s much else to mention (yes, I know Ted Ginn Jr went 4-93; yawn).  For the Saints, I was pretty shocked at the competence of Luke McCown. 31-38? There weren’t a ton of downfield throws, but still. Brandin Cooks led the saints with 7-79 but wasn’t much to write home to mom about. Mark Ingram couldn’t get fully untracked and seemed to continue to lose touches to Khiry Robinson. I’m staying away from the Saints for now.

Eagles 24, Jets 17

I know the Eagles technically won this game, but are any of us winners if we watched this? It was really, really brutal. Sam Bradford‘s critics continue to get louder, and perhaps the only way they are quieted a bit this week is the fact that Jonathan Papelbon decided it would be fun to choke out the NL MVP on Sunday.  Ryan Mathews showed signs of life, and I saw pre-game a lot of debate, once DeMarco Murray was ruled out, who the better Philly RB was. Darren Sproles certainly had a nice day with a return TD and a rushing TD, but Mathews at least showed he may be a capable RB2.  I’m not touching the Eagles passing game for a bit.  For the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick was really bad, and the Eagles initially seemed determined not to let Brandon Marshall beat them. Marshall seemed to want to oblige with one of the oddest decisions on a lateral as he went to the ground, giving the ball right back to the Eagles; to his credit, Marshall owned up to the gaffe. Bilal Powell got the lion’s share of the workload, as an “active” Chris Ivory was a massive disappointment as he didn’t garner a single touch. I still think that Brandon Marshall is in the borderline WR1/WR2 conversation, and Jeremy Kerley did see 11 targets this week. Kerley may be a sneaky WR play going forward.

Texans 19, Bucs 9

There’s not much I need to tell you about this game, because it was also terrible to watch.  For the Texans, we read all week that Chris Polk was the play, and then garnered 5 touches. Alfred Blue, much maligned by many experts due to a poor career YPC, ripped off 31-139-1. If you played Alfred Blue, well done. In spite of the Ryan Mallett/Brian Hoyer combo, DeAndre Hopkins still commands attention and respect, finishing Sunday with 14 targets and 8-101-1.  For the Bucs, Jameis Winston was really bad. Unfortunately, Doug Martin wasn’t much better. Mike Evans is maybe your biggest takeaway as he got 17 looks from Jameis. Outside of that, let’s just move on.

Vikings 31, Chargers 14

The Vikings quietly improved to 2-1 and espoused the formula many expected / a LOT of Adrian Peterson, who was excellent with 6 YPC and 2 TD and his first really long TD of the year.  Teddy Bridgewater passed for 121 yards and I think you can completely avoid the Vikings pass game. For the Chargers, Philip Rivers really wasn’t very good.  In spite of this, Keenan Allen had another good week with 18 targets and 12-133-2.  Allen may be shaking that sophomore slump off a bit and ready for a monster 2015.  Malcom Floyd returned from the dead with 7 targets, but that’s about it. Antonio Gates comes back soon, so keep that in mind.  Melvin Gordon, who was expected/hoped by many to break out for a big week this week, didn’t get to see too much action due to gameflow. He was good but not great when he was in the game, carrying the rock 14 times for 51 yards. I had hoped for more out of Gordon this week.

Steelers 12, Rams 6

This is certainly NOT what many expected coming in to this game.  By now, I’m sure you’ve heard about the injury to Ben Roethlisberger that they are hoping is only an MCL tear. I think that you have to put Antonio Brown behind Julio Jones, but he is still an other worldly talent. Le’Veon Bell returned and appeared to have never left, getting 26 touches, 132 total yards and a score.  Because Bell demands such a large part of the workload, I think the rest of the core fades into the background.  For the Rams, this was really bad. Foles didn’t crack 200 passing yards. The much-anticipated Todd Gurley debut occurred but it was pretty quiet to the tune of 7 touches for 14 yards. Kenny Britt got 10 targets that he turned into 7-102.

Cardinals 47, 49ers 7

This was an absolute beating from start to finish. Of all of the NFL I’ve watched for years, I’ve never seen the exact same play, to start a game, occur twice, which is what happened today. Colin Kaepernick scrambled, rolled right twice as the pocket broke down, threw off his back foot, and had both balls returned for pick-6s. It was 14-0 in the blink of an eye an incredible. I know that the caveat has always been “Carson Palmer, when healthy…” but Palmer is smoking white-hot right now. He had another ho-hum 20-32-311-2, and his only gaffe was a really bad floater for a pick. Chris Johnson turned the clock back, and strangely/shockingly was the goal line back for both TDs, pissing David Johnson owners off everywhere. CJ2K’s 22-110-2 cannot be ignored but I’m not sure I’ve fully formed an opinion yet, either. I know that John Brown was the fantasy darling this year, but Larry Fitzgerald is demanding everyone’s attention. He put up another monster afternoon, and while it may have been dwarfed by the huge performances today of Julio Jones and AJ Green, a 9-134-2 commands a lot of respect. It’s good to see the old Larry Fitz back. As far as the 49ers? Wow. What a train wreck.  Colin Kaepernick needs to be benched. Four picks and most of them were truly awful. 67 yards passing. You’re avoiding the 49ers at all costs right now.

Bills 41, Dolphins 14

Now that the games have started, has the narrative of the Dolphins being the sneaky AFC East champs died? They’ve looked really bad two weeks in a row, and today, they were flat-out embarrassed at home today.  Tyrod Taylor‘s price at this point has to skyrocket, as he was virtually free on most sites and yet again racked up another monster day with 277 yards passing and 3 TDs. Charles Clay had a nice game today, putting up 5-82-1, and I’m intrigued if today was the result of playing against his former team or the start of a bigger role in this offense.  Outside of him, there’s not much else to write about in the passing game; Percy Harvin received 8 targets, but there wasn’t else much to say. Sammy Watkins is a guy I’m avoiding still.  In the backfield, Karlos Williams has clearly shown himself to be the most talented inside runner they have and is making an argument that he’s the best RB they have, period. He only got 12 touches today but still managed 12-110-1.  For the Dolphins, Ryan Tannehill disappointed yet again. Was last year’s 4,000 yard passing season a mirage? Rishard Matthews was a guy I pointed out in my value plays for Yahoo and he had another nice game to the tune of 6-113-2. Jarvis Landry worked the dink and dunk to 13 targets and 8-67.

Seahwaks 26, Bears 0

This was another game that was pretty painful to watch and ended about how most expected it, although I think Seahawk fans would have hoped for a little easier time on offense. Marshawn Lynch missed the first quarter due to an apparent back and calf injury, then came in, and then left in the third quarter with a hamstring injury. I think he’s probably out for Week Four and certainly something to keep an eye on. On the bright side, rookie Thomas Rawls put up a huge day in a surprise start, averaging 6.5 YPC with 16-104. Russell Wilson continued to just be so-so through the air, and Jimmy Graham seemed to get somewhat untracked with 7-83-1.  There isn’t much else to talk about in the passing game.  For the Bears, this was about as bad as could be expected.  Jimmy Clausen was really bad, and I don’t think Bears fans could have wished for a healthy Jay Cutler any more than they are right now.  Matt Forte is Matt Forte, so don’t ignore him but paying top RB price for him is risky at this point. Martellus Bennett, who maybe has the coolest nickname in all of sports, is someone to consider given that he gets the Raiders and their penchant for big afternoons from TEs, but that’s about it.

Love Matt’s new column? Any thoughts to share of your own?

What did you see from Sunday’s week 3 action that is giving you pause as you head into week 4?

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The post Sunday’s Quick Kick – NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football Recap & DFS Insights appeared first on Moxyball.

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