Welcome to the Moxyball NBA DFS Cheat Sheet for FanDuel & DraftKings for January 4, 2016. We go through each fantasy position, covering 4 player picks & advice for each roster slot.
In this column, we will share our top high-priced play, top value play, a high-ROI GPP target and a player to fade at each of the PG, SG, SF, PF and C slots. Our version of a “Cheat Sheet” may be a little more in-depth and lengthy than other sites… but hey, that’s just how we believe we can provide you with true value-add content that makes a difference. Our hope is that you’ll be able to use this information, in addition to our other tools like The Moxy List and Starting 5, to build consistently high-quality lineups that make you a DFS winners.
Editor’s Note: This is a new daily column that we are adding to our NBA DFS coverage. It will be part of our free content for the next 7 days as an introductory offering, after which it will become a part of our premium program for our Moxyball Insiders. If you are currently a part of our Moxyball Insiders program, you will receive a discount should you decide you’d like to have ongoing access to the Cheat Sheet, too. Pricing details will be shared in the near future.
For the purposes of dividing players into different categories, to be considered a value play for the purpose of this article, a player has to be priced below $6,000.
Point Guard
Top Play: Russell Westbrook ($10,700)
Westbrook let a lot of people down myself included last game out only scoring 33.7 fantasy points but that is good news for us tonight. His ownership will be lower because of the bad game and his priced dropped $300. I am going to take advantage of the price drop as last game was a major outlier for Westbrook. He has the highest floor and ceiling in the NBA due to his elite all-around game. He leads the NBA in usage rate (34.7%), leads point guards in rebounding rate (10.8%), rebounds per game (6.4) and leads the NBA in steals per game (2.53). He also is 5th in the NBA in points per game (25.6) and is 3rd in assists per game (9.3). To top all those numbers off is his match-up tonight against the Kings. The Kings allow the 5th most fantasy points per game to point guards (43.46) and 5th most steals per game to the position (2.38). They also rank dead last in point per game (107.7)and next to last in turnovers per game (16.1). When you add up all the numbers the writing is on the wall for another huge game from Westbrook tonight.
Value Play: Ish Smith ($5,700)
Don’t let the past two games scare you off of Smith tonight. A factor of foul trouble against the Lakers, blowout against the Clippers and some really bad shooting lead to lower minutes and scoring. Smith only shot 18% in those two games and scored a total of 13 points after averaging 18 points in his previous three. Despite the lack of scoring Smith was still able to bring it in the other categories and averaged 2.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. Smith is bound to find his shot against the Wolves who rank 21st in team field goal percentage allowed (45.6%). At his price point Smith is still under priced and is a player that I will be looking at heavily tonight.
GPP Play: Shane Larkin ($4,500)
With Jarrett Jack tearing his ACL that will leave the starting point guard duties and the 32 plus minutes it brings to Larkin. Larkin has not done much this season with averages of 6.8 points, 3.8 assists and 2.2 rebounds in just 19.1 minutes but has shown flashes and can bring it on the defensive end of the floor as well. In his one start this season Larkin had 8 assists and 6 points in only 23 minutes. He also had 3 steals and a block in that game and has back-to-back games with 2 steals. The match-up is horrible as the Celtics are allowing a league best 35.70 fantasy points per game to point guards but as a primary ball handler who can defend for less than $5,000 Larkin could pay off huge.
Player to Fade: Kyle Lowry ($8,700)
On this slate Lowry is one guy I want zero exposure to. He is playing great with back-to-back double-doubles but the match-up is awful and there are better dollar for dollar options on this slate.
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