FanDuel & DraftKings Expert MLB DFS Cash Game Lineup Picks for Wednesday, August 12, 2015.
Free daily fantasy baseball lineup advice, picks and plays (8/12) to help you win your contests.
Here we go… let’s dive into the action for FanDuel and DraftKings with some quick hits for the day to help you set your lineups.
My approach for this column will continue to focus on building the highest quality DFS lineups for FD and DK that are built with the objective of delivering consistent team scores of the “high-floor” mentality.
In other words, I’m looking to share advice and tips that will result in a lineup of players that will help you place in the upper half of 50-50 contests, double-ups and even head-to-heads if you so choose to play those types of games in the DFS space.
Daily MLB Overview:
Number of games: 15
Earliest first pitch: 3:40 pm EST
Biggest moneyline favorite: LA Dodgers (-205) vs Washington
Smallest moneyline favorite: St Louis (-111) vs Pittsburgh
Highest run total: 9.0 (TEX @ MIN)
Lowest run total: 6.0 (WAS @ LAD)
It was a full slate yesterday with plenty of action across the majors, including a number of extra inning affairs.
We were on the Bumgarner train for cash games, and he came through with a fantastic outing for his owners. Hopefully you were one of them!
On the value side, Erasmo Ramirez was the one guy I really liked on the lower end, and he came through with a very nice game of his own for the Rays.
Yasiel Puig (1 HR, 1 3B, 5 RBI), Brandon Belt (2 HR), Lorenzo Cain (4/4 with 1 HR) and David Peralta (1 HR, 5 RBI) led the way as the top options at the dish.
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Let’s start on the mound:
View image | gettyimages.com
I talked about my love for Jacob deGrom today over in the Expert Picks column. He’s my top pick of the day on the mound thanks to his incredible numbers against opposing hitters on home soil (Citi Field), as well as the -195 favorites the Mets are in this one.
It just so happens to be Clayton Kershaw day, as he will be taking the mound for the Dodgers in the late game against Washington. Most of the bats in that lineup have all kinds of trouble against the ace lefty, with the likes of Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos all holding career OPS of under .600 against him. Some are small sample sizes, so take this at face value, but things really do stack up nicely for him.
Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth both have solid numbers against him in their combined 42 at bats, though. Werth doesn’t concern me too much as his star is significantly fading this year (likely due to father time catching up to him), but Zimmerman has actually never struck out against him in 18 career plate appearances. This is relatively noteworthy, especially if you’re looking for a true contrarian play in GPPs at first base.
All that being said, if you don’t want deGrom and want to go by Vegas’s #1 win probability guy on the mound, Kershaw is your guy tonight.
Let’s spend a few moments talking about 2 interesting matchups that may be worth taking advantage of from a value perspective.
View image | gettyimages.com
R.A. Dickey vs Oakland | The ageless knuckler takes the hill tonight against the As. He’s averaged 13.1 FanDuel points over his last 6 starts, with his last 4 checking in at 16.33, 16, 17, 9. That 16.33 performance was against Oakland on July 23, where he pitched into the 9th (8.1 IP) with 5 H, 2 ER, 6 Ks and a win. With the way the Jays are playing right now, he could be a sneaky play today at $8,000 (FD) and $7,800 (DK).
Another important stat to point out is Oakland’s offensive struggle of late from a contact perspective. Their hard hit percentage is awful, ranking 29th over the last week at only 20.3%. They are hitting a ton of ground balls, too (over 50% in that span) and sport a team .298 wOBA over the last week (well below average). Combine this with Dickey’s string of strong outings, as well as Toronto’s offense, and you have yourself a solid shot at 15 points from Dickey tonight.
Danny Salazar vs New York Yankees | With 5 straight outings of at least 11 points (16+ in two of those), Salazar is on one of his nice little runs that are fun to be a part of from a fantasy perspective. He’s had a full 6 days off to rest, so will be taking the mound on Wednesday in a good position to succeed.
The Yanks battled yesterday to almost win this one, only to lose it in 16th after blowing an extra-inning lead. This is quite deflating, as they were coming off a sweep at home by Toronto and a quickly shrinking lead in the AL East. Their offense is ice cold at the moment, scoring only 8 runs in the last week thanks to a .159 average and .215 team wOBA.
If you want to pick on a struggling set of bats, who may be a little deflated with what’s happening around them (and yesterday’s results), Salazar is a nice play at $8,700 (FD) / $10,500 (DK) today.
And on to the bats today:
I love the Texas bats tonight against Mike Pelfrey. They make for a nice stack opportunity – with Prince Fielder acting as my top hitter (per the Expert Picks column).
In addition to Prince, Elvis Andrus and Shin-Soo Choo are intriguing. I love Rougned Odor’s skills, but I don’t love that he’s currently hitting in the 8th spot most nights. That alone kills his value due to the downward pressure on his expected at bats. Prince is a must-start for me tonight, with Andrus making an excellent SS play in a scarce position. If you want to go 3 Rangers deep, Choo is a fine choice assuming he leads off.
On the other side of this game are Minnesota bats, who are projected to score 4.77 runs (and win the game at a -113 favorite right now) against Nick Martinez and the Rangers. Martinez is awful… just awful… and I can’t blame Vegas for liking the Twins to score plenty off him.
View image | gettyimages.com
Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano are elite values and options to roll with tonight in my books. They’re hitting well and both check in under $3,000 on FanDuel. Martinez has a 4.97 xFIP and sports a .381 wOBA against righties on the year. He’s one of those weird guys that actually is more effective against LHBs, but with Mauer being such a skilled contact hitter, I’m not concerned that he hits from the left side (especially with his splits against LHP on the year to prove my point).
Torii Hunter and Brian Dozier, in addition to Sano and Mauer, make for a fantastic 4-man stack to leverage in your lineup tonight (especially with an ace on the mound in Kershaw or deGrom, if you choose to go that route).
The Jays are a nice stack tonight as well, with rookie Aaron Brooks taking the mound for Oakland. Brooks has been fortunate that he’s been able to maintain a 2.41 ERA over his first 18.2 innings in 2015, considering his GB rate is only 35.2% (and 3.8% HR/FB metric). Against a team that leads the league in dingers, this is not likely to continue. Jose Bautista is hitting extremely well right now and is an elite OF play (despite the hefty price).
Josh Donaldson is another great play at the third base position tonight, hitting in the #2 spot for the Jays. You can’t go wrong with Troy Tulowitzki assuming he’s in the leadoff spot tonight once again. It’s worth noting that Brooks is pitching in his first game away from home tonight, and has a better record against LHBs thus far, making righty bats highly attractive.
Lastly, give Royals bats some love tonight. Daniel Norris is taking the mound for the Tigers (on the road in KC), and the bats like Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain are fantastic against LHP. These are the top 2 plays in that offense tonight, which is expected to score 4.34 runs (-182 favorites).
And with that – I’ll sign off for the day. Have a great one – DFS and otherwise!
DFS STRATEGY: In case you missed it, Chase wrote a great piece on taking advantage of base-stealers in DFS. Make sure you have a look.
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