FanDuel & DraftKings Optimal MLB Lineup Picks for Sunday, May 10, 2015. Daily fantasy baseball lineup advice, picks and plays for building the best FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS lineups (5/10).
We have a huge day of baseball ahead of us on Sunday. It’s going to be a very interesting one, as there are plenty of high run totals expected based on the Vegas odds, as is the usual case with afternoon baseball.
Finding the right pitcher may be a bit of a challenge, but we’re ready to dive into the tall grass to uncover something shiny.
Let’s jump right in to what will be another great day on FanDuel and DraftKings for MLB DFS!
Let’s Start With The Pitching Landscape:
The top 3 pitchers on the slate today from a win probability perspective:
Felix Hernandez (-172) vs Jesse Chavez. The total is 7.0.
Jordan Zimmerman (-167) vs Alex Wood. The total is 7.5.
Michael Pineda (-157) vs Bud Norris (who may be scratched… so keep an eye). The total is 8.0.
We thought we were going to have Clayton Kershaw going on Saturday night, but that game was postponed.
With the line and total for that game (LAD @ COL) not yet posted on Covers.com at the time of my writing, I wasn’t able to put this into the top 3 above. In all likelihood, we’ll see another similar line as on Saturday, in which case he’ll be in must-start territory once again. Keep an eye on this to make sure the game happens as planned and be confident locking him in.
Next up from an ace perspective is King Felix. He struggled against the As earlier this year (3 ER in 5.0 IP) but this isn’t something to be concerned about. He’s at home in this one and should have no trouble: a) getting back on track and b) getting the win for his team.
Against Oakland last year, he pitched to the tune of a cool 2.22 ERA over 6 games with 40 K in 44.2 IP, going 4-0. I share this with you only because I want to make sure his first start against Oakland in 2015 isn’t being used as the true barometer of his abilities and matchup strength. Even though the As have changed a few players on their roster from 2014, their offense is weaker (i.e. no Josh Donaldson) and has been wildly inconsistent so far this season.
I’m struggling to see how I leave Felix out of my Sunday lineups to be quite honest.
I don’t know about you, but I find it incredibly difficult to put my name behind Jordan Zimmerman these days. The guy has been all over the map thus far on the season and makes for a very difficult bet in DFS on Sunday.
Their superstar youngster Bryce Harper is playing like a man possessed and really putting the team on his back – but that won’t really affect what could potentially be another rough start from their supposed reliable #3.
I will be avoiding him in this one, even though the matchup is strong with Atlanta on the other side of the coin. There are just too many more attractive situations with seemingly lower risk.
Michael Pineda is actually quite intriguing considering the potential to face Bud Norris on Sunday… or maybe even a spot starter.
He’s fantastic when healthy (Pineda… not Norris, just to be clear) and has the ability to put up big DFS numbers both for FD and DK owners alike.
Coming off a huge game against Toronto in his last start (8 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks and a Win), we could see him keep his nice start to the season going. It was his first scoreless outing in 2015, and the Yankees have won 5 of the 6 games he’s started so far this year.
Baltimore got to him in April when they faced off (6.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER) in his second start of the season. But, it’s important to look at the 9 Ks he also managed to pull out of that one to boot. Not a bad option if you want to take a flier for GPPs.
One other name to consider for GPP lineups is Bartolo Colon. The guy can still bring it. He’s having one heck of a season so far, and facing the Phillies on Sunday with Chad Billingsley on the other side of the coin, there’s a strong chance his Mets are looking at a win as well.
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Moving Over To The Hitting Side:
The game in Toronto with R.A. Dickey and Clay Buchholz has a run total of 9.0. An afternoon game in Toronto with 2 pitchers that like to have their share of off games with big hit and run totals given up? There is definitely something to like here.
There isn’t anyone in particular that I think is a must-start in this one, but I really like the guys swinging hot bats right now: Chris Colabello and Josh Donaldson for the Jays get the nod for me.
Edwin Encarnacion had a big Saturday and could be on the bring of a super hot streak. I also think any of the values you like for the Red Sox are good options as well. Dickey is such an up and down pitcher – a (likely) open roof in Toronto with a 1pm EST start time could mean big offensive numbers against.
There is one thing that gives me a bit of pause in this one, though. Buchholz is incredibly unpredictable – and the underlying numbers actually show there’s reason to believe he’s going to improve in a big way. With a FIP a whole 3 runs lower than his ERA (2.99 vs 6.03) and a career high K rate (11.49 K/9) – you can really see what I mean when I talk about a positive regression candidate for Buchholz.
For 50-50 games, you likely want to steer clear… but for GPPs – go nuts with the bats in this one.
The other game with a high run total is CIN @ CHW with Michael Lorenzen taking on John Danks. With the White Sox only favored slightly at -116 and a o/u of 9.5 – we should be looking at a bit of a slugfest with each side trading blows from start to finish. I definitely think this is a game worth considering for a healthy stack.
For the White Sox, look at Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche… as well as Jose Abreu with a really mediocre righty on the hill.
For the Reds, start the hot Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier with confidence. Billy Hamilton is also a nice play when he’s going well – and that’s exactly where he stands for this one coming off a big Saturday performance. I’ll be playing at least 4 guys from this game in my 50-50 lineup.
The Cubs visit Milwaukee on Sunday with a o/u of 8.5. Kyle Hendricks takes on Matt Garza in this one, with Hendricks being a slight favorite at -108. I forsee another day of offense for both teams here, just like we had on Saturday.
Take the over and start your bats with confidence like Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo. I also think you need to consider Khris Davis and Ryan Braun with the way they’re currently swinging the bat.
Value Bats To Consider (Assuming They Start):
Colabello is practically a must-start while his price is so low. A great value play once again on Sunday as long as he’s in the lineup.
I like the Mets value bats like Kevin Plawecki, Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera on Sunday against Billingsley. They could easily chip in with a hit and a run with the upside for more.
With Scott Feldman toeing the rubber for Houston, there are going to be some values in the Angels lineup to consider. Erick Aybar is starting to come out of his early season funk and Carlos Perez is getting some serious run behind the dish and is worth a gamble for a GPP lineup.
I really like Will Venable for the Padres as long as he’s getting run in the lineup. The same goes for Cory Spangenberg and Yangervis Solarte at their respective prices.
RELATED: Daily Fantasy Strategy: Helping You Win
Best of luck today!
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