So Who’s Selling?
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No team in the American League is more than 9 games out of a Wild Card spot and every team within the National League is within 10 of a wild card spot with the obvious exception of the Phillies.
The amount of sellers will be microscopic this year and the quantity of pieces available is lower than I’ve ever seen. This says something about the parity of baseball and the Job that commissioners Selig and Manfred have done to make an even playing field despite differences in payroll.
The problem with selling is that its incredibly bad for business the rest of the year and will result in a loss of projected revenue.
So I have outlined some potential sellers and the pieces they can move along with a suggestion if they should/will sell.
Philadelphia Phillies – OBVIOUS SELLER
They really don’t have all to much that they can sell which hasn’t been rampantly discussed by the media. Hamels and Papelbon will be moving. Hamels will command a premium price of one top 30 prospect and another in the top 100 with potentially another top 175 prospect.
I really hope they let MacPhail handle things instead of Ruben as they have to be smart with Papelbon. DONT let him get to the August waiver wire game as he will get claimed and you will have to give him away for free or pull him back. Papelbon could command a top 100 and top 200 prospect but will vary depending on how much salary they eat.
Ryan Howard can wait for August as no one will claim that contract but he could be a helpful DH for a contending team. There is interest in Ben Revere and he will be shopped but I don’t know if he will be moved.
I would make a case for the Phillies to trade Ken Giles as he will be expensive when they are relevant and they can get some real good pieces of him.
There will be tons of interest as he basically costs nothing in terms of salary. Aaron Harang will also be traded if healthy but he should cost no more than a top 175 prospect. They will also trade relievers like Jeanmar Gomes and Luis Garcia for a small price.
Here are some sample trades:
Cole Hamels to The Texas Rangers for Nomar Mazara, Luis Ortiz and Travis Demerette
Odds hes traded 99.5%
Jonathan Papelbon to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jeff Hoffman and Richard Urena. Phils eat 50% of contract
Odds hes traded 92%
Ken Giles to the Boston Red Sox for Manuel Margot, Trey Ball and Sam Travis
Odds hes traded 18%
Aaron Harang to the Detroit Tigers for Kevin Ziomek
Ryan Howard will be traded in August
Odds hes traded in August 30%
Milwaukee Brewers – Potential Sellers 65%
They had a horrendous start to the season but have been better of late. I really don’t see a full-blown blowup but rather a small retool. Carlos Gomez is the big question mark here as he would be uber valuable but I am not confident that he’s traded.
I will say that Adam Lind might be the best bat thats truly on the market and can haul in some nice prospects as he’s affordable for next season with a 8M club option.
Gerardo Parra can help a team in the outfield as he plays all 3 positions and will be a free agent as well. Jean Segura should be traded as they have both Luis Sardines and Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings. For the pitching side Kyle Lohse should bring a bad of pennies.
Fransisco Rodriguez “K-Rod” can bring some nice pieces in as he’s had a remarkable season with a 1.41ERa and only makes 5.5M next season. I doubt anyone would want Garza and his contract but they should think about moving a reliever like Will Smith or Michael Blazek.
Here are some sample trades:
Carlos Gomez to the Toronto Blue Jays for Dalton Pompey, Max Pentecost and Mathew Smoral
Odds hes traded 25%
Adam Lind to the St. Louis Cardinals for Matt Adams.
Odds hes traded 65%
Gerardo Parra to the Kansas City Royals for Christian Binford and Cheslor Cuthbert
Odds hes traded 80%
Fransisco Rodriguez to the Seattle Mariners for Luiz Gohara and Danny Hultzen
Odds hes traded 55%
Miami Marlins – Potential Small Sellers
The Fish haven’t been healthy all season and find themselves 10 games out of a Wild Card spot. They really don’t have that much that they are willing to trade.
The squad will deal at least one of Dan Haren and Mat Latos. Haren is very likely to be traded as he is much older and has pitched to a 3.24 ERA. Haren would prefer to be on the west coast but that would be doubtful. Latos they would trade but if he rebounds in the 2nd half then he could be taggable and be worth a potential compensation pick if he declines.
They have said they will not trade AJ Ramos. On offense Cole Gillespie can be a nice bench piece and Michael Morse would be mainly a salary dump that could wait until august.
Martin Prado could be an intriguing part but he is under contract for next season. It is tough to judge this team with Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton and Henderson Alvarez injured for much of the season.
Here are some sample trades:
Dan Haren to the Detroit Tigers for Derek Hill
Odds hes traded – 80%
Martin Prado to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Aaron Blair and Stryker Trahan
Odds hes traded – 30%
Colorado Rockies- Doubtful Sellers
We play the game of are they going to trade Tulo or CarGo every year and it has never happened. I would say they are much more likely to trade CarGo rather than Tulo (whose getting close to setting their on base streak record). They really don’t have to much their willing to sell.
They have some bullpen pieces in John Axford and LaTroy Hawkins but they won’t command any high grade prospects. I doubt this team would do anything drastic with 9 total players on the DL including 4 SP. The most likely big name player I see you could get traded is CarGo because of his contract and they have some depth there.
Here are some sample trades:
Troy Tulowitzki to the New York Mets for Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Michael Conforto
Odds hes traded 15%
Carlos Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for Henry Owens and Rafael Devers
Cincinnati Reds- Likely Sellers
The Reds are caught up in a minor mess with both Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto set to be unrestricted free agents after this year. I say if they are within 5 games then they will keep and likely tender Mike Leake and if they are within 3 games then they will keep and obviously tender Johnny Cueto.
The club will consider trading Jay Bruce but I personally wouldn’t. They will heavily shop Aroldis Chapman and they should because if he isn’t going to get any leads then why have a big money closer.
They have said they will not trade Todd Frazier. I would try to trade Brandon Phillips and his contract but that can be potentially done in august. They will also trade Marlon Byrd who will command a small price. Safe to say Walt Jockey and Co have some work to do.
Here are some sample trades:
Johnny Cueto to the Houston Astros for Domingo Santana and Vincent Velasquez
Odds hes traded 78%
Mike Leake to the New York Yankees for Ian Clarkin and Jacob Lindgren
Odds hes traded 65%
Aroldis Chapman to the Washington Nationals for Reynaldo Lopez, AJ Cole and Jackson Reetz
Odds hes traded 70%
Jay Bruce to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Gregory Polanco and Harold Ramirez
San Diego Padres – Potential Sellers
They are caught in a tough spot and have already stupidly fired a good manager in Bud Black. They underwent one of the biggest offseason overhauls that we have ever seen and they find themselves at the same record as last season.
Their notable free agents are Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy but I am not certain they will trade them. AJ Preller is highly competitive and this team is built to contend now and in the immediate future.
They have entertained the idea of trading James Shields which makes sense but he makes 21M from 2016 to 2018 and they might have to eat some money.
There is also Craig Kimbrel who makes some decent change but he hasn’t had his best season and would be selling when the dollar is low.
Here are some sample trades:
Justin Upton to the Chicago Cubs for Billy McKinney, Gleybar Torres and Dan Vogelbach
Odds hes traded 50%
James Shields to the Boston Red Sox for Jake Cosart (No Money eaten)
Odds hes traded 40%
Ian Kennedy to the Tampa Bay Rays for Hak Ju Lee and Ryne Stanek
Odds hes traded 50%
Craig Kimbrel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Jose De Leon
Odds hes traded 33%
Atlanta Braves- Highly likely small size sellers
John Hart has done a tremendous job rebuilding the Atlanta Braves in order for them to be world series contenders when they open their new ballpark in 2017. They are not out of the race at all but knowing Hart he wants to win a championship not take a flyer to make a last wild card spot and risk the future.
Cameron Maybin who was really a throw in from the trade with the Padres has been fantastic and can command a real return for his services. Juan Uribe and Chris Johnson will also be shopped with the Braves wanting to rid themselves of Johnsons contract so he might be an august option.
AJ Pierzynski will also be shopped and can be useful as a cheap backstop alternative with postseason experience. As for pitching Jason Grilli is most for the year but Jim Johnson is still useful and can command a prospect to come back.
Here are some sample trades:
Cameron Maybin to the Houston Astros for Mark Appel and Colin Moran
Juan Uribe to the Detroit Tigers for Nick Castellanos
Jim Johnson to the Texas Rangers for Ronald Guzman
Oakland A’s- ??????? Its Billy Beane
What a wacky season in Oakland where they have one of the highest run differentials in the American league yet the worst record in the AL. They could sell but the numbers have said they are better than what their record indicates. They will trade Scott Kazmir somewhere but he is the only definite. There has been talks of them trading Josh Reddick but I see that as doubtful as looking at last season what happened when they traded away Cespedes. Ben Zobrist will be a free agent and is likely to be moved.
Here are some sample trades:
Scott Kazmir to the Seattle Mariners for DJ Peterson
Ben Zobrist to the New York Yankees for Luis Torrens and Jose Ramirez.
We will see who actually sells but you can expect a flurry of activity and higher prices than normal. IF the Astros and Twins pull away you may see more sellers from the AL BUT if just one of them falters you will se a whole buch of AL buyers.
In the NL The Cubs, Mets and Giants are in a tight race for that last spot but other teams are not far behind. IT shall be quite exciting.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A Big thanks goes out to our featured writer Jordan Gluck for preparing today’s feature post.
Note from Editor: Also congrats to Jordan Gluck for picking KC as the AL Pennant winner in the 2014 season, successfully running the MLB Reports prognosticators for picking at least World Series participant every year since 2011 for preseason selections.
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