The tough forecast many predicted for Melbourne City at the beginning of the new season has come to fruition in the first two weeks; an away draw to Sydney FC followed by a Melbourne Derby loss provides City with a winless fortnight to begin their newest campaign.
Despite this, City haven’t necessarily failed completely from their two games so far and can take plenty of confidence into their next match against the Central Coast Mariners.
Head to head:
Played 15: Melbourne City 1 win, Central Coast 10 wins, drawn 4.
The Game:
Melbourne City will expect an attacking style of football from Central Coast. The Mariners have made 21 more shots than City so far this season for one extra goal and have attacking-minded players through midfield going forward.
Much like last season, Melbourne City will be down to its third choice let-back with Michael Zullo and Jack Clisby both pulling up lame with calf and quad injuries respectively; Ben Garuccio will fill the void.
Left-back has been a problem area for City so far; Melbourne Victory exploited its sieve-like qualities with Daniel Georgievski and Kosta Barbarouses constantly bombarding that side of the field, while Filip Holosko gave Clisby nightmares in round one.
Don’t be surprised to see the Mariners expose City on that side with Fabio Ferreira looking to steam past young Garuccio.
A potential problem area for the Mariners is the central defensive positions.
Last week, the raw pairing of Jake McGing and Harry Ascroft couldn’t quell the Brandon Borrello and the Brisbane Roar.
Eddy Bosnar has been named in the Mariners squad and there’s hardly a doubt manager Tony Walmsley would like to get him into the back four immediately.
With Liam Reddy being stood down by Central Coast during the week, young Paul Izzo gets an opportunity to make an impression in his new colours between the posts.
The former Eugene Galekovic understudy at Adelaide may be targeted as a point of weakness early on into his first Mariners start; Melbourne should look to take aim at goal more often than in their first two matches.
The Gamebreaker:
Playmaker Robert Koren will be absent from the team with a calf injury, meaning a big gap next to Aaron Mooy and Erik Paartalu in midfield needs filling.
A potential candidate for the role could be new signing Corey Gameiro, who joins from Sydney FC after a 2014-15 season tortured by a ruptured ACL.
It seems a big ask for a player in recovery from an ACL to be the x-factor in his first game back. Gameiro only managed four – albeit high quality – matches last season, scoring two goals for the Sky Blues, but has shown enough in his interrupted time in the A-League that he is a promising attacker.
Prominently a striker or winger, Gameiro could play in an advanced role in midfield working up and alongside the human backboard services Bruno Fornaroli provides at centre forward.
Keep an eye on the dicing Roy O’Donovan and Patrick Kisnorbo will be doing in the Mariners attacking third.
Open Data Key Statistics:
-Central Coast have taken the most shots at goal this season, with 34 across the opening two rounds; only ten have been on target.
-Fabio Ferreira leads the league in shots taken this season, with 11.
-Ferreira has also been involved in three of the five Mariners goals this season; scoring two and setting up another.
-Melbourne City have only managed a measly 13 shots for the season; a league low.
-City have only ever defeated the Mariners once; a 1-0 result at AAMI Park in February, 2012
-The goal difference at AAMI Park between the two sides is three to the Mariners; Melbourne City have scored seven to Central Coast’s ten.
Prediction:
A sense of under-preparation hangs over this match for Melbourne in a strategic sense. Continuity in the Melbourne team has been disturbed with many injuries from both last season and the new, and it’s making things a little disjointed. There’s quality in the City squad; cohesion, there seems not. Not yet.
The Mariners, like City, are loaded with youth. Stacking up the squads on paper, Central Coast’s seasoned heads seem to fall a rung lower than those for Melbourne.
The international experience of Thomas Sorensen and Bruno Fornaroli marginally outweigh those in the Mariners team, but when you factor in the multiple Socceroos in the Melbourne camp, the scales topple.
The differential could’ve been greater if Zullo, Koren, Ivan Franjic, Harry Novillo and Aaron Hughes were lining up.
If this game isn’t a draw, it’ll be a one-goal win to City.
Melbourne City 1-1 Central Coast Mariners.
Match details:
Sunday, 25 October 2015
AAMI Park, Melbourne
Kick-Off: 5:00 PM (Local) (5:00 PM (AEDT))
TV Broadcast: Live coverage on FOX SPORTS 505 from 4.30pm (AEDT) and Sky Sport 2 (New Zealand)
Radio Broadcast : 774 ABC Melbourne, 92.5 Central Coast, & ABC Local Radio Vic, Grandstand Digital, Online & via the ABC Radio Mobile App – A-league Live. Coast FM (Gosford) SEN (Melbourne)
Melbourne City FC squad : 1.Thomas SORENSEN (GK), 4.Connor CHAPMAN, 6.Erik PAARTALU, 7.Corey GAMEIRO, 8.Aaron MOOY, 15.David WILLIAMS, 16.Jason TRIFIRO, 17.Wade DEKKER, 18.Paulo RETRE, 19.Ben GARUCCIO, 21.Stefan MAUK, 23.Bruno FORNAROLI, 24.Patrick KISNORBO (C), 25.Jacob MELLING, 28.Steve KUZMANOVSKI, 30.Hernan ESPINDOLA, 36.Matt MILLER
***Two players to be omitted and One Goal keeper to be Added***
Ins : 7.Corey GAMEIRO (returns from injury), 15.David WILLIAMS (returns from injury), 19.Ben GARUCCIO (returns from injury), 25.Jacob MELLING (returns from injury), 30.Hernan ESPINDOLA (promoted), 36.Matt MILLER (promoted)
Outs : 11.Michael ZULLO (calf – 2-3 weeks), 10.Robert KOREN (calf – 2 weeks), 20.Tando VELAPHI (concussion – TBC), 22.Jack CLISBY (quad – TBC)
Unavailable : 3.Aaron HUGHES (calf – 1 week), 5.Ivan FRANJIC (quad – 3-5 weeks), 9.Harry NOVILLO (hamstring – 2-3 weeks), 14.James BROWN (foot – TBC), 26.Marc MARINO (knee – 3 months)
Central Coast Mariners squad : 1.Paul IZZO (gk), 2.Storm ROUX, 3.Josh ROSE, 5.Harry ASCROFT, 6.Mitch AUSTIN, 7.Fabio FERREIRA, 8.Nick MONTGOMERY (C), 9.Roy O’DONOVAN, 10.Anthony CACERES, 11.Nick FITZGERALD, 14.Daniel HEFFERNAN, 16.Liam ROSE 18.Glen TRIFIRO, 19.Josh BINGHAM, 21.Michael NEILL, 22.Jake McGING, 23.Eddy BOSNAR, 30.Adam Pearce (GK)
**two to be omitted”
Ins: 3.Josh ROSE (return from injury), 18. Glen TRIFIRO (promoted), 23. Eddy BOSNAR (return from injury), 30.Adam PEARCE (GK) (promoted),
Outs: 12.Liam REDDY (GK) (omitted), 26.Brian JAMBA (omitted)
Unavailable: 4.Jacob POSCOLIERO (hamstring – 1 week)
Referee: Chris Beath