What real estate market developments are coming to Victoria?
There are some real estate market developments we can report on. The real estate market is always in motion. It’s never static.
The media tend to report on matters that get people’s attention. Humdrum articles like the market is “stable” or hardly going up or down? Those are dull. For media ratings, you have to express yourself clearly.
You can usually find statistics to show what you want shown. So let’s ask again. Are there any real estate market developments in Victoria that would interest us? Is the market going to go up? Or is it going to go down? You might be surprised to hear. It’s not as simple as a black or white “up” or “down”.
Headlines usually over-state market activity as either “boiling hot” or “prices slashed”. The truth is that there isn’t ONE simple response.
It’s complicated. There are many simultaneous markets and developments. It’s too easy to just blurt out some real estate market update.
It’s no news that real estate prices go up as well as down – but mostly up. In the long run, an investment in real estate should always pay off. But … what kind of a real estate market update is that? People don’t want to hear that.
Some say we should expect further price increases. Or there may be decreases. There are many different ways of measuring current real estate values. Which one shall we believe to be true?
THE FACTS ON REAL ESTATE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN VICTORIA.
The real news is far too complicated: the market in this area did this, the market in that area did that, in this price range something else and in this property group something else again. How can anybody make a hot article about that?
The truth does not make for a hot real estate market update. Homes in and around Victoria cost way more today than they did 10 years ago. Then again, so do milk, electricity, car insurance and most everything else. Our income has gone up too or so we hope. What’s that got to do with predictions about the real estate market?
In statistics, just about anything can be “proven” with certain information in hand. Careful interpretation of real estate market statistics is more than a hard science. It requires a feel for the events.
Real estate is a long term investment. Since you also have to live somewhere, it’s probably a useful investment to own your own house. Who ever knew that the science of statistics can be so vague? For instance, the average price can go up while the median price goes down. Or the number of sales can be going down while the prices are going up.
When you see the same property sell twice after a number of years, it’s a vague indication of value direction but not fool-proof hard evidence. Once again, there are many factors at play.
INTERPRETING VICTORIA REAL ESTATE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS.
One can interpret information in a variety of different ways, depending on the spin one needs to give. A very simple example would be seen in a market that sees prices go up and then down (which is quite common, in all reality). It’s just: what do you wish to prove?
One can do any kind of comparison – just to make the desired point. Of course, it’s not only real estate where this kind of statistics-aided marketing is practised.
You can do it with all sorts of things: tourism numbers, medical procedures, crime rates, any kind of sales information – anything to do with numbers.
Interpreting statistical data is somewhat of a science – but it’s not a “hard” science. There’s always room for interpretation and there’s always some form of potential variance. How to compare a peach with a peach!
To perform a precise, comparative real estate market development update, you would need to see exactly the same property sell twice. Then you can see where the market is going.
Right there, the problem begins. Virtually no property remains unchanged over time. People renovate, fix the yard, pave the driveway or else, they might do the opposite: wear down the property.
The media wouldn’t like it if our real estate market developments were zero – then they’d have nothing to report. Nothing of a dramatic nature.
REAL ESTATE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS WHEN NOTHING HAS CHANGED.
Was it a foreclosure situation, was there a death in the family? Serious illness? Unemployment? All these things have the effect of skewing the true picture. If you can view a larger number of sales, a statistical trend may become more obvious.
The more “samples” are in your mix, the greater the likelihood of statistical accuracy in your real estate market development update. It means you have to look at a large number of transactions over a period of time to say anything that’s even half-smart.
Averages, as posted in some statistics, display one amount. A median price does that too, but arrives at the figure differently. Another approach is the benchmark sale.
We can also be almost certain that long-term real estate values will see appreciation. It might all be a bit like the stock market. It goes up some of the time. It goes down from time to time. However, in the long run there should be good appreciation.
Real estate market developments are not always clearly visible. Sometimes, you can really only tell after the fact. But … we’ll keep on trying to understand what’s going on.
THE STATISTICS ON REAL ESTATE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS HERE:
Statistics of real estate market developments: http://www.lotuslandrealestate.com/category/statistics/.
Real estate market developments update: http://www.lotuslandrealestate.com/category/buying-real-estate/.
Leave it to the Victoria professionals: http://www.lotuslandrealestate.com/victoria-professionals/.
Something smart about real estate disclosure: http://www.lotuslandrealestate.com/real-estate-information/.