Three major battles are about to start in northern Syria: The regime’s attack on Aleppo – The Euphrates Shield’s, ES, (backed by Turkey) attack on Al Bab – The Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, (mainly of Kurdish YPG and backed by the US) attack on Raqqa.
Between the three major battles, the whole story of the current delict phase of the Syrian crisis gets ready to enter its next chapter. ISIL controls Al Baba and Raqqa. Syria’s non-ISIL opposition forces control Aleppo. Both the battles for Al Bab and Raqqa will end with, in addition to the defeat of ISIL, an escalation in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict in north Syria.
It is understood, of course, that everyone is focusing on defeating ISIL. However, what will come in the post-ISIL north Syria should be carefully examined at this moment not only to try to predict the following course of the conflict but also to see if the current phase can be shaped in a way to produce a specific result for the next chapter of the Syrian story.
There is currently a fierce fight going on between SDF and ISIL in north and north-west Raqqa. At the time of writing this report, SDF has already freed 26 villages, and counting, since it started its offensive in November 6 to take the organization’s self-claimed capital. The progress of SDF is militarily impressive. However, it raised restlessness in Ankara as it enables a force-the YPG, affiliated with it its enemy-the PKK, to gain control, assisted by the US military, over a large swath of land across Turkey’s borders.
While the US air force paves the road for SDF to advance towards Raqqa, Turkish planes are paving the road for ES forces to advance towards Al Bab. ES fighters liberated around 2500 square kilometers of ISIL so far, since their offensive began August 24. ISIL pulls out its forces from one village after the other in face of the ES offensive and in order to concentrate on defending large strategic centers like Al Bab.
In Aleppo, the regime is mobilizing some significant fire-power in its positions around the city. Reports of an imminent attack on Aleppo have been flying in the air for the last couple of weeks.
Indeed, the planes of Assad and Russia resumed with vengeance their air attacks on Aleppo. Since the collapse of the Kerry-Lavrov short ceasefire, 4600 civilians, 222 of them children, were killed in the city by Assad’s barrel bombs and Putin’s cluster ammunition. The resumption of the Russia’s air raids and missile attacks started following a telephone conversation between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and the new American president-elect Donald Trump.
The intense air attack which practically gained higher level of savagery started November 15. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Putin that Su-33 jets from the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov are involved in the operation, marking its combat debut. “We launched a major operation to strike the positions of the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra in the provinces of Idlib and Homs,” Shoigu said at a meeting with Putin, referring to the al-Qaida’s branch in Syria by its old name. He said the Russian strikes are targeting ammunition depots, training camps and armaments factories.
As part of the Russian operation, a navy frigate launched long-range Kalibr cruise missiles and the military also used Bastion missiles stationed in Syria to strike militant targets in the rebel-held northern province of Idlib and the central province of Homs. Shoigu said that before launching the strikes, the military intelligence had thoroughly identified and selected targets.
Inhabitants of Aleppo, estimated to number roughly 300,000, were put under siege and starvation for over 6 months. The opposition waged an attack to break the siege, but ultimately failed and had to leave the positions it took in the west of the city. Now, it is coming under the new intense offensive of Russia, Assad, Hezbollah and the rest of the militias led by Iran’s IRGC in the east. Putin hopes to take Aleppo before the new administration takes office in Washington.
We have seen in the case of ES and Turkey in the one hand and SDF and the US in the other hand how a new dynamic is being created in the north and north east parts of Syria. Now, we will see how a new dynamic will also be introduced in the post-Aleppo phase in the north and north west of that country.
The first dynamic puts Turkey and Syria’s Arab Sunnis against the YPG, the PKK and Kurds in general. The second creates an insurgency that will channel the opposition effort towards major Syrian cities, particularly in the west.
For Putin and Assad, it is risky to keep an explosive pocket like Aleppo just on their throats. But how about if this pocket explodes to produce hundreds of cells and groups, well-armed, battle hardened and ready to give whatever it takes? If Aleppo is taken by Putin-Assad-Iran, they may regret that they have attacked the city in the first place. Sometimes, it is better to keep their enemies in one spot and not scatter them in a thousand places where no one can see them but everyone is targeted by them.
At one point, Aleppo, under siege and starvation, may fall. Al Bab and Raqqa will certainly fall to their attackers. But this is simply the prelude for the next chapter of Syria’s tragedy.