UPDATE 5 - Pakatan Rakyat leaders were optimistic that the Terengganu state government could return to Opposition hands after deposed chief minister Ahmad Said and 2 other Umno state assemblymen quit Prime Minister Najib Razak's ruling party in an escalating power tussle.
"It's possible, it all depends if the Independents will align themselves to Pakatan or at least support a Pakatan rep to be the Mentri Besar over the Umno candidate," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.
However, Tian expects 'massive horse-trading' to take place which might make it tough for coalition-mate PAS to seal a deal.
PAS, one of the 3 Pakatan component parties which include DAP, leads the Opposition in Terengganu.
"If Terengganu falls to Pakatan hands, it's curtains for Najib. He will be forced to step down, especially with the Umno general assembly around the corner, I think you can expect him to do everything he can to stop an exodus. He has huge resources and that can work wonders."
New prime minister for Malaysia: Huge stakes , big moneyBut should the 60-year-old Umno president fail in knocking a deal with the irate Terengganu reps, then Malaysia will have a new prime minister.
Already, Najib is facing strong criticism from Umno elders such as Mahathir Mohamad and Daim Zainuddin for mismanaging the economy and for not giving enough 'carrots' to their factions in the party.
"For Najib's foes in Umno, this is the perfect storm. Some of his enemies have been using hardliners and extremist groups like Isma and Perkasa as a way to create instability to force him out of the Umno presidency and PM's chair," an Umno watcher toldMalaysia Chronicle.
"This is now their golden opportunity but Najib also has a lot of money. It will be an interesting fight and the winner will be who pays more."
Disappointment in Najib may spark mass resignations
According to PAS news portal Harakahdaily, a few hours after his resignation as Terengganu Menteri Besar, Ahmad Said dropped his quit bombshell declaring himself an Independent rep with immediate effect.
Not only that, Ajil state assemblyman Ghazali Taib also followed in Ahmad’s footsteps resulting in PAS and Umno having an equal number of 15 state assemblymen each in the Terengganu state assembly.
Hot on the heels of the defiant duo was Bukit Besi state assemblyman Roslee Daud. According to Astro Awani, Roslee has now declared himself an independent.
Roslee's resignation effectively makes BN a minority in the Terengganu state assembly, with Umno's seat count whittled to 14 while PAS remains at 15.
In explaining his move, Ahmad Said expressed disappointment with Najib and warned that other Umno assemblymen may quit too.
"I have worked in Umno for a long time. I told the PM that my daughter's wedding reception is on May 17 and asked for the change of MB to happen after that," Ahmad, who is the Kijal rep, was quoted as saying by Malaysiakini.
"He told me that was a personal matter, so I told him not to blame me if I quit the party."
Shortest-lived MB either way?
Earlier, Prime Minister Najib Razak had announced in a statement that Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin had approved Ahmad Said’s resignation as well as the appointment of Seberang Takir state assemblyman Ahmad Razif Abd Rahman as the new Terengganu Menteri Besar.
Ahmad Razif his oath of office before Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin at Istana Syarqiyyah near Kuala Terengganu last night in the presence of all state exco members minus Ahmad Said.
Ahmad Razif may turn out to be the shortest serving Menteri Besar in history if Ahmad Said and Ghazali became Pakatan Rakyat-friendly independents.
If so, then the state government would fall to Pakatan and a new MB, most likely from PAS, would replace Razif.
Nonetheless, political insiders believe a "desperate" Najib was fully aware of the consequences of Ahmad's pull-out to his own political survival in Umno.
They expect him to pull out all the stops in enticing the other Terengganu Umno reps to stay including the offer of 'cushy packages', 'goodies' and even reinstating Ahmad as the MB. - Malaysia Chronicle