Best Bet Race 3 no 1 Beautiful Flyer
Next Best Race 6 no 1 Spiritof Endevour
Value Bet Race 5 no 6 Nipperkin
Morphettville Parks – Saturday, 14 January 2017
Track: Good. Weather: Hot (Partly Cloudy – 23°C). Rail: Out 3 Metres Entire. Sectional 604m
Assessed for: –
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Race 1 – Medallion Homes Handicap – BenchMark 70 – 1950 – 02:13
Top Pick: Balf’s Choice (5)
Danger: Have Plenty (4)
Trifecta: On a Dream (3)
Multi: Barge And Charge (2), Distillation (1), Anuradha (7), Smackwater Jack (6)
Tip Comment: Balf’s Choice returns from a relatively successful Melb campaign where he placed in 2/3 starts. Before that ran a couple of terrific races…steps up to this trip for first time however hardly meets a strong line-up here. Expect he will be very hard to hold out! Have Plenty just can’t seem to break through this prep. Does surely get his best opportunity here however-absolutely respecting! On a Dream likely leader sure to give a big sight-still must rate some query over the longer 1950m here?
Race Comment: Barge And Charge & On a Dream the two pacemakers from Smackwater Jack. Expect Balf’s Choice($2.40) to be hard to beat…has however opened up at his right price! Have Plenty($5.50) rates as a genuine danger & appeals much more at opening prices.
Betting Confidence:
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Race 2 – Schweppes Maiden Plate – Maiden – 1000 – 02:48
Top Pick: Artful Jack (1)
Each-way: Cerro Blanco (10)
Trifecta: She’s Starstruck (14)
Multi: Pujols (6), Flash Hussy (12), Addie Lane (8), Harlem Child (13)
Tip Comment: Artful Jack resuming. Despite having just placed in 1/6 starts to date suggest this bloke still has a future having already bumped into some more than handy types in brief career to date. Gets in well after claim-if he is ready to fire fresh he does appear well placed-monitor betting! Cerro Bianco another resuming that also ran behind some smart types when last in work. Fitted for this with a recent trial-not hopeless. She’s Starstruck admittedly form reads mixed…respecting Tourneur riding!
Race Comment: She’s Starstruck, Addie Lane & From Fifth amongst those to go forward. Tough race with minimal form…in saying that reckon we have found one at nice value. Without going overboard having something on Artful Jack($12). Cerro Blanco($34) good roughie.
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Race 3 – John ‘Arkwright’ Edwards 90th Handicap – BenchMark 75 – 1250 – 03:23
Top Pick: Beautiful Flyer (1)
Each-way: Miss Murra (5)
Trifecta: Deanna Jean (4)
Multi: Lexgetreddy (6), Freedom Road (7), Molly the Snip (8), Social Media (9)
Tip Comment: Beautiful Flyer nice mare that has returned bigger/stronger than ever this prep. Produced two nice efforts (2nd-up was against Open company) before proving far too classy when scoring comfortably (similar line-up) last start…best bet!! Miss Murra recent efforts certainly read ultra-consistent. Drawn ideally to again enjoy all the favours-expect her to again be somewhere near the finish. Deanna Jean gave a good sight when runner-up (1st-up). Has finished in the money 3/4 previous 2nd-up runs!
Race Comment: Expect Social Media & Deanna Jean to both drive forward at a genuine tempo. Simply can’t see Beautiful Flyer($2) tasting defeat here…will even suggest the opening skinny odds actually present as good value…betting up/anchor all-up runner!!
Betting Confidence:
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Race 4 – Ubet Handicap – BenchMark 90 – 1000 – 04:03
Top Pick: Riziz (1)
Danger: Alabama Missile (5)
Trifecta: Hard Romp (4)
Multi: Karacatis (3), Heart of a Lion (2), Ready Sunshine (7), Spatha (6)
Tip Comment: Riziz smart 8yo resuming. Has finished in the money in 7/9 previous fresh runs & fitted for this with more than solid recent trial. Drawn ideally & with blinkers going back on suggest maps to get ideal on-pace trail. Alabama Missile nice effort when simply too classy 1st-up. Expect her to hold the front from ideal rails draw…should again run another very cheeky race. Hard Romp had absolutely nothing go his way 1st-up before last start far from disgraced (bunched finish)-likely big improver!
Race Comment: Solid tempo from Alabama Missile, Riziz, Hard Romp & Karacatis. Not a race we are overly keen about with little/no obvious early value. Would want at least $4 about both Riziz($3.75) & Alabama Missile($2.90) whilst could entertain Hard Romp($5).
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Race 5 – Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Handicap – BenchMark 70 – 1400 – 04:43
Top Pick: Nipperkin (6)
Danger: Miss Identified (8)
Each-way: Peninsula Links (7)
Multi: Chapel City (1), Super Crunch (10), Wasabi Bob (2), Federosa (4)
Tip Comment: Nipperkin has seriously had no luck when still run well in both runs back from ten week freshen-up. Indicated ability when beating home some handy types last prep despite being forced to cover ground t’out. Most underrated type expected to again be hard to hold out. Miss Identified is another racing well without luck. Just missed when took on the older gallopers last start…deserves to break through! Peninsula Links & Chapel City also both deserving of plenty of respect with genuine claims.
Race Comment: Expect Peninsula Links to be able to cross & lead from outside draw with Wasabi Bob trailing handy. Open race however reckon Nipperkin($9) presents as a terrific e/way gamble! Miss Identified($6) also appeals at early odds.
Betting Confidence:
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Race 6 – Quayclean Handicap – BenchMark 64 – 1400 – 05:20
Top Pick: Spiritof Endeavour (1)
Each-way: Saturday Magic (9)
Value: Redentes Edge (11)
Multi: Simpatico (4), Have Another Glass (7), Mykiebaeu (5), Nutherbottlegonski (6)
Tip Comment: Spiritof Endeavour suggest this bloke is going much better than initial formlines read. This clearly easiest assignment for quite some time dropping back to a BM64 & has also finally drawn a barrier…keen! Saturday Magic finally rewarded for consistent when scoring two starts back before again not far away last time out…should again press forward & give another good sight. Redentes Edge made up a stack of late ground just last week-quick back-up stepping up to the 1400m appears ideal-value!
Race Comment: Mykiebaeu expected to lead from Onward & Saturday Magic with Spiritof Endeavour mapping to settle a lot closer. Reckon Spiritof Endeavour($7) presents as a terrific investment & will be betting accordingly. Redentes Edge($16) clear best roughie!
Betting Confidence:
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Race 7 – Holdfast Insurance Handicap – BenchMark 82 – 1550 – 05:50
Top Pick: Prince Harada (2)
Danger: Finke (6)
Trifecta: Mail It In (4)
Multi: Battle Brewing (7), Flow Meter (1), It And a Bit (3), Whistle Stop (5)
Tip Comment: Prince Harada likely nearing peak fitness having had the two more than solid runs this prep (both against much stronger company!). Appears ideally placed against these & although is a query stepping up to the 1550m should still be horribly hard to run down. Finke was terrific when just missing 1st-up before racing just a fraction flat 2nd-up. Likely improver! Mail It In racing so consistently well having progressed through the grades nicely this prep…drops back to this his pet trip here.
Race Comment: Expect Prince Harada to be able to cross & lead these from Gangsters Run, Battle Brewing & Finke. Open race however suggest Prince Harada($8) is certainly worthy of a e/way wager at opening odds. Flow Meter($15) also appeals as good value early on.
Betting Confidence:
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Race 8 – MAC: STOP DRUG DRIVING Hcp – BenchMark 70 – 1250 – 06:25
Top Pick: Murti (7)
Each-way: Debeersonus (1)
Each-way: Call Me Curtis (5)
Multi: Regal Spur (8), House of Wax (4), Lord Topper (12), Go the Journey (3)
Tip Comment: Murti nice effort when not too far away 1st-up behind a couple of in-form types despite enduring a tough run t’out. Likely to find this easier yet gets in lighter at weights after claim…drawn ideally-expect he will give a terrific sight here! Debeersonus prepared to totally forgive last weeks failure after enduring torrid run t’out.Likely settles a lot further forward here-big improver! Call Me Curtis & Regal Spur also both genuine chances whilst House of Wax also has claims despite ugly draw.
Race Comment: Big field/strong tempo with Just Kappy, Call Me Curtis, Go the Journey, Murti, Debeersonus amongst those driving hard early. Fancy Murti($3.75) however appears well found unfortunately. Suggest Debeersonus($14) presents as clear best early value.
Betting Confidence: