For the first time since November, it feels like the Republican nomination might be slipping away from Donald Trump.
Back then, no one really believed Trump could win, and the man who threatened to eclipse him was Ben Carson. These days, with most of the primary calendar in the past, Trump is the clear leader—and Ben Carson has dropped out and endorsed him, becoming a loyal if sometimes unhelpful surrogate. But the last few days and weeks have made very clear how hard it will be for Trump to turn his lead into a nomination. With the July GOP convention nearly in sight, the entertainer still hasn’t locked down the delegate total he needs, while the fact that he has alienated a vast swath of the Republican Party is finally starting to seem like a problem for him.
For months, Trump defied political gravity, as his delight in thumbing his nose at party bosses and people who did politics the old-fashioned way seemed to benefit him. But in a series of recent contests, Ted Cruz has beaten him, and Trump seems unprepared for a bareknuckle brawl over delegates.
Cruz won by a large margin in Wisconsin on April 5, taking 36 delegates—six times as many as Trump. He swept the 40 delegates on the board in Utah on March 22. In Colorado, Cruz dominated the local and state conventions held over the weekend, taking all 34 available delegates. Meanwhile, state-level conventions have been hostile territory for Trump. The primary process is arcane: Voters or caucuses elect delegates who go to the Republican National Convention. Depending on state rules, those delegates are required to vote for the candidate who won the state (or a specific district) on the first ballot, and sometimes on subsequent ones. But if no candidate wins the requisite 1,237 delegates through those ballots, delegates are often freed up to support whomever they want on later ballots.
That makes it essential for Trump to place delegates who are truly Trump supporters and will stick with him—and offers an opportunity for his rivals, but especially Cruz, to place delegates who will defect as soon as possible and hand a contested convention to a different candidate. So far, that’s not going well for Trump. Over the last few days, he was pounded in South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana. Earlier, he struggled in Georgia and Louisiana.
Early in the campaign, reporters and political insiders insisted that Trump simply didn’t have the smarts and the staffing to win a presidential campaign, and that he would quickly falter. For the most part, they’ve been made to look silly. But Trump has shown that he’s very weak in caucuses, which require superior organization and turnout efforts, and in the delegate fights, which are similar. It doesn’t help Trump that state conventions tend to be run by party insiders who dislike him. He can’t simply rely on ginning up turnout among disaffected voters. (Following the Colorado convention, the state Republican Party’s official account tweeted, “We did it. #Never Trump,” then deleted the message.)
Trump lashed out on Monday. “The people out there are going crazy, in the Denver area and Colorado itself," Trump said on Fox and Friends on Monday. “They're going absolutely crazy because they weren’t given a vote. This was given by politicians—it's a crooked deal.” On Sunday, an aide accused the Cruz campaign of “Gestapo tactics” during Meet the Press. Though Trump complains that he’s being taken for a ride, his cries ring a little hollow. For one thing, as Ari Melber points out, he’s taken a greater proportion of delegates than he has of the popular vote—talk about a crooked deal. For another, Trump is a man who has throughout his business career defended the concept of taking full advantage of rules to benefit himself, notably in the case of corporate bankruptcy.
Besides, he’s clearly aware of the problem and is trying to fix it. Trump hired Paul Manafort, a veteran Republican operative who helped run the convention-floor fight for Gerald Ford in 1976, where the president defeated a challenge from Ronald Reagan. (Manafort is also a former partner of Trump friend and master of skullduggery Roger Stone.)
So far, however, the Manafort hire doesn’t seem to helped. In addition to the troubles in Colorado, South Carolina, and elsewhere, the Trump team bungled its Washington state operation, sending out a plea for supporters to register as potential delegates after the deadline had already passed. Meanwhile, Manafort’s hire seems to have sown discord within the Trump campaign. His aides, led by controversial campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, have created a surprisingly tight-knit and leak-proof unit that’s very loyal to its leader. (Where the campaign has gotten into trouble is when Trump shoots his mouth off publicly, not when staffers do privately.) But Lewandowski has been increasingly sidelined since being charged with battery for grabbing a reporter in March, and Manafort’s increasing power has rankled the existing staff.
Adding insult to injury, with the New York primary approaching on April 19, it turns out that Trump’s children Ivanka and Eric failed to register as Republicans in time to vote for their father.
In short, it’s all a mess, and could get messier. Trump could still finish the campaign strong and win the nomination ahead of the convention, obviating all of this. That doesn’t seem likely—as Harry Enten points out, Trump is the weakest presidential front-runner in recent history. Then again, nothing about Trump’s campaign has seemed likely so far. Republican insiders have incentives to portray Trump as getting weaker, and previous predictions of doom have proved badly wrong. Right now, however, things look headed toward a contested convention.
That’s created an opening for Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House. Whether he wants it is a different story. Influential voices, like the D.C. tipsheet Playbook, are circulating his name as the likely consensus nominee out of a convention fight. (Liam Donovan lays out a persuasive case against it.) Ryan, the youngish Wisconsinite, insists he has no interest in the job, but he said the same thing about becoming House speaker. We’ll see. The Ryan buzz is loud enough that we’re adding him to the Cheat Sheet.
Meanwhile, the Democratic side of things remains deadlocked: Hillary Clinton can’t shake Bernie Sanders, but he can’t overtake her, either. The Wyoming caucuses on April 9 demonstrate the problem. The state is classic Sanders territory: smaller, whiter, and with a caucus rather than a primary, just the sort of state he has dominated. True to form, he beat Clinton by more than 11 percent in the popular vote. But thanks to delegate-allocation rules, that big win won’t help him make up ground in the race: They each leave the Equality State (that’s really its official nickname) with seven pledged delegates.
The next big contest for both parties is New York on April 19. Clinton is hoping for a big win in the state she represented in the Senate. But Sanders, who grew up in Brooklyn and has kept the accent through his Vermont years, has worked to make a race of it. The two Democrats went through their most acrimonious tangle of the campaign last week, with Sanders saying Clinton was not “qualified” to be president. He later walked that back, under pressure, and said instead over the weekend that her judgment was questionable. There’s some evidence to support that view.
Trump remains favored to win in New York, his own home state. The question is how much he wins by. To make 1,237 delegates before the convention, he’ll need some commanding performances, including in the Empire State. John Kasich’s and Ted Cruz’s goal is to hold down his margins and snag a few delegates. New York could be the last best hope for Kasich, who is still in the race, to Cruz’s increasing frustration. Kasich’s rationale remains the same as it has always been. He can’t win the nomination outright, but believes that he should be the consensus nominee at the convention, since he’s the only candidate who beats Clinton in head-to-head polling at this point.
Who’s in, who’s out, and who’s on the bubble? To help keep track, this cheat sheet on the state of the presidential field will be periodically updated throughout the campaign season. Here’s how things look right now.
* * *
The Republicans
PAUL RYAN
Who is he?
The U.S. representative from Wisconsin is speaker of the House, an intellectual leader of the Republican Party, and the GOP’s 2012 vice-presidential nominee.
Is he running?
No. Or yes. It depends who you ask. Ryan insists he has no interest in the job, but many observers see his disclaimers as less-than-Shermanesque, while a series of speeches, meetings, and campaign-style videos have created an impression that he might he waging a shadow campaign.
Who wants him to run?
Desperate Republican insiders. They fear and loathe Donald Trump, who is a loose cannon with barely any tether to conservative principles, much less the Republican Party; but they also personally despise Ted Cruz, who they also think would lose a general election. Ryan’s the most obvious figure left on the board.
Can he win the nomination?
Since he’s not running, it would require a very different kind of campaign. First, Trump would have to fail to win the nomination outright with delegates. Then, he and Cruz (and John Kasich) would all have to fail to win on subsequent ballots at the Republican National Convention. Then someone would have to put him forth, he’d have to agree, and the fractious party would have to align around him. It’s not impossible to imagine, but it’s not an easy path in any way.
What else do we know?
Mike Allen’s Politico Playbook, a favorite inside-the-Beltway tipsheet, has been on the frontlines of pumping up a Ryan bid. For a more skeptical view, read Liam Donovan at National Review.
Does his website have a good 404 page?
He doesn’t have one. Yet.
JOHN KASICH
Who is he?
The current Ohio governor ran once before, in 2000, after a stint as Republican budget guru in the House. Between then and his election in 2010, he worked at Lehman Brothers. Molly Ball wrote a definitive profile in April 2015.
Is he running?
Yes. His announcement was July 21, 2015, at the Ohio State University in Columbus.
Who wants him to run?
White-collar Republicans. Kasich’s pitch: He has better fiscal-conservative bona fides than any other candidate in the race, he has proved he can win blue-collar voters, and he has won twice in a crucial swing state.
Can he win the nomination?
Kasich is mathematically out of the running, but he hopes to deprive Donald Trump of the requisite delegate total and snatch the nomination away at the Republican National Convention in July—which happens to be in his home state of Ohio. With even establishment politicians swinging toward Cruz, his chances are fading.
What else do we know?
John Kasich bought a Roots CD and hated it so much he threw it out of his car window. John Kasich hated the Coen brothers’ classic Fargo so much, he tried to get his local Blockbuster to quit renting it. George Will laughed at him. John Kasich is the Bill Brasky of philistinism. John Kasich probably hated that skit, too.
Does his website have a good 404 page?
Nope.
DONALD TRUMP
Who is he?
America’s sweetheart—well, America’s high-school sweetheart, the one you get embarrassed thinking about decades later.
Is he running?
And how.
Who wants him to run?
A shocking portion of the Republican primary electorate; Democrats; white supremacists. The rest of the Republican field, along with its intellectual luminaries, however, are horrified.
Can he win the nomination?
Who even knows? Not this guy:
What else do we know?
He cheats at golf—probably.
TED CRUZ
Who is he?
Cruz served as deputy assistant attorney general in the George W. Bush administration and was appointed Texas solicitor general in 2003. In 2012, he ran an insurgent campaign to beat a heavily favored establishment Republican for Senate.
Is he running?
Yes. He launched his campaign March 23, 2015, at Liberty University in Virginia.
Who wants him to run?
Hard-core conservatives; Tea Partiers who worry that Rand Paul is too dovish on foreign policy; social conservatives.
Can he win the nomination?
Cruz has become the leading non-Trump Republican, winning the backing even of establishment figures like Jeb Bush who seem to detest him—they just detest Trump more. Cruz maintains he would win the nomination outright, but realistically his only game is to keep Trump from clinching before the convention.
Does his website have a good 404 page?
No.
* * *
The Democrats
HILLARY CLINTON
Who is she?
As if we have to tell you, but: She’s a trained attorney, former secretary of state in the Obama administration, former senator from New York, and former first lady.
Is she running?
Yes.
Who wants her to run?
Most of the Democratic Party.
Can she win the nomination?
Bernie Sanders has given Clinton an enormous scare, but as the campaign runs through March, she has built up a lead among delegates that seems insurmountable.
What else do we know?
The real puzzler, after so many years with Clinton on the national scene, is what we don’t know. Here are 10 central questions to ask about the Hillary Clinton campaign.
Does her website have a good 404 page?
If you’re tolerant of bad puns and ’90s ’80s outfits, the answer is yes.
BERNIE SANDERS
Who is he?
A self-professed socialist, Sanders represented Vermont in the U.S. House from 1991 to 2007, when he won a seat in the Senate.
Is he running?
Yes. He announced April 30, 2015.
Who wants him to run?
Far-left Democrats; Brooklyn-accent aficionados; progressives who worry that a second Clinton administration would be far too friendly to the wealthy.
Can he win the nomination?
Almost certainly not, but his performance has been strong enough to keep him going. He’s won seven of the last eight Democratic contests. The bad news for him is that those tend to be smaller states, and he’s split the delegates with Clinton. Even so, he’s one of the most successful insurgent Democratic candidates ever.
Does his website have a good 404 page?
Yes, and it is quintessentially Sanders.
* * *
Third Party and Independent
JESSE VENTURA
Who is he?
A Navy veteran, former professional wrestler, and author, “The Body” was elected as governor of Minnesota on the Reform Party ticket in 1999 and served one term.
Is he running?
Not yet. But he told CNN on March 3 that he is considering an third-party presidential bid and would decide in the next month.
Who wants him to run?
Just Jesse so far. He argues that people are fed up with Democrats and Republicans and want a middle path. “I want to see the revolution continue,” he said.
Can he win the nomination?
Probably not. Ventura’s politics are eclectic—his 2012 book praised Occupy Wall Street and blasted the Citizens United decision, but he tends toward conservative-libertarian views on other matters. His biggest problem might be his Trutherism: He believes the 9/11 attacks were a hoax. Then again, no one thought he’d ever win his gubernatorial election in Minnesota, either.
Does his website have a good 404 page?
Does he have a website?
JILL STEIN
Who is she?
A Massachusetts resident and physician, she is a candidate of nearly Stassen-like frequency, having run for president in 2012 and a slew of other offices before that.
Is she running?
Yes. Stein announced in June 2015 that she would again seek the nomination of the Green Party, which she won in 2012. The Green Party will formally select their candidate in Houston, Texas, this year at their Presidential Nominating Convention on August 6.
Who wants her to run?
Stein seems to have strong support with the Green Party. She managed to collect nearly 500,000 votes in 2012—the party’s strongest showing since Ralph Nader’s disastrous 2000 run but well short of the 2.9 million votes he got.
Can she win the nomination?
Yes. She seems well placed to win the nomination. Her rivals include Darryl Cherney, a musician the FBI once accused of bombing himself, and Bill Kreml, a Taoist professor emeritus of political science. It’s too soon to speculate how she might fare in the general election compared with 2012.
Does her website have a good 404 page?
Possibly not original, but kind of soothing and on-message.
GARY JOHNSON
Who is he?
Oh come on, you remember Gary! He ran for the GOP nomination in 2012 and then got the Libertarian Party nod after that didn’t work out. He was previously a two-term governor of New Mexico. He now runs a company that sells THC lozenges.
Is he running?
Sure is. He announced his attempt for an encore performance with the Libertarian Party on January 6.
Who wants him to run?
As his company’s site notes, “Now that he’s associated with what is being hailed the best legal cannabis product on the market, Gary may be drafted for President of the United States by a grateful nation one day.” Johnson is also an unusually talented and successful politician to vie for the Libertarian line. The 1.3 million votes he collected in 2012 were the party’s all-time high—so to speak.
What are his prospects?
He’s running against the outlandish oddball former tech titan John McAfee in the party, so that looks good. But of his general-election chances, he told my colleague Nora Kelly, “I have no delusions of grandeur here. I know what happened last time.”
Does his website have a good 404 page?
No.
* * *
Out of the Running
Republicans
MARCO RUBIO
Who is he?
A second-generation Cuban American and former speaker of the Florida House, Rubio was catapulted to national fame in the 2010 Senate election, after he unexpectedly upset Governor Charlie Crist to win the GOP nomination.
Is he running?
No. He announced on April 13, 2015, but dropped out on March 15, 2016, after losing his home stage of Florida.
Who wanted him to run?
In the end, not nearly enough people. Rubio was seen as a candidate who could bridge solid conservative orthodoxy with a young, charismatic demeanor. As Donald Trump rose, the party establishment coalesced around Rubio, but as it became clear he couldn’t win, his support collapsed.
Could he have won the nomination?
Until Super Tuesday, Rubio seemed to hold the second-choice slot, right behind Trump. But his stumble that day is causing many observers to reassess whether he can actually win. In withdrawing, Rubio suggested he was simply not well-suited to the negative tone of this year’s primary.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
It’s decent.
BEN CARSON
Who is he?
A celebrated former head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, Carson became a conservative folk hero after a broadside against Obamacare at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast.
Is he running?
No. He skipped the March 3 GOP debate and suspended his campaign on March 4.
Who wanted him to run?
Grassroots conservatives. Carson has an incredibly appealing personal story—a voyage from poverty to pathbreaking neurosurgery—and none of the taint of politics.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Carson was undone by his own lack of knowledge and interest in policy and his failure to hire the right people to get him up to speed. If it’s any consolation, history weighed heavily against Carson’s chances all along: Not since Dwight Eisenhower has either party nominated anyone without prior elected experience for the presidency.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.
JEB BUSH
Who is he?
The brother and son of presidents, Bush served two terms as governor of Florida, from 1999 to 2007.
Is he running?
No. Bush suspended his campaign on February 20 after coming in fourth in South Carolina.
Who wanted him to run?
Establishment Republicans; George W. Bush; major Wall Street donors.
Could he have won the nomination?
When he entered the race, Bush became an instant front-runner, but when Donald Trump jumped in, he displaced Bush, and Bush never recovered. Could he have done things differently and ended up with a win? It’s possible. But Bush had great connections, the staff he wanted, and stupendous fundraising, and he still botched it—which strongly suggests he just wasn’t a candidate who ever had a chance.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
Yes—y en español también.
JIM GILMORE
Who is he?
Right? Gilmore was governor of Virginia from 1998 to 2002. Before that, he chaired the Republican National Committee for a year. In 2008, he ran for Senate in Virginia and lost to Mark Warner by 31 points.
Is he running?
No. He announced on February 12 that he would end his campaign.
Who wanted him to run?
Who knows?
Could he have won the nomination?
Nah.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
Holy Freudian slip, Batman!
CARLY FIORINA
Who is she?
Fiorina rose through the ranks to become CEO of Hewlett-Packard from 1999 to 2005, before being ousted in an acrimonious struggle. She advised John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and unsuccessfully challenged Senator Barbara Boxer of California in 2010.
Is she running?
No longer. Fiorina dropped out on February 10, following a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary.
Who wanted her to run?
She was a business-friendly candidate with a talent for a sharp turn of phrase or jab. But it was never exactly clear what Fiorina’s constituency was going to be, and a strong following never materialized.
Could she have won the nomination?
No. Fiorina couldn’t crack 5 percent in New Hampshire and was already off the debate stage when she dropped out.
What else do we know?
Fiorina’s unsuccessful 2010 Senate race against Barbara Boxer produced two of the most entertaining and wacky political ads ever, “Demon Sheep” and the nearly eight-minute epic commonly known as “The Boxer Blimp.”
Did her website have a good 404 page?
No.
CHRIS CHRISTIE
Who is he?
What’s it to you, buddy? The combative New Jerseyan is in his second term as governor and previously served as a U.S. attorney.
Is he running?
No longer. He suspended his campaign on February 10.
Who wanted him to run?
Moderate and establishment Republicans who don’t like Jeb Bush or John Kasich; top businessmen, led by Home Depot founder Ken Langone.
Could he have won the nomination?
Maybe in 2012. This year, Christie staked his chances on New Hampshire, and he ended up a distant eighth. On the evening of February 9, he suggested he might drop out soon. But Christie was already probably toast. The tide of opinion had turned against Christie even before the “Bridgegate” indictments. Citing his horrific favorability numbers, FiveThirtyEight bluntly punned that “Christie's access lanes to the GOP nomination are closed.”
Did his website have a good 404 page?
We would have gone with the GIF, but sure.
RICK SANTORUM
Who is he?
Santorum represented Pennsylvania in the Senate from 1995 until his defeat in 2006. He was the runner-up for the GOP nomination in 2012.
Is he running?
No. He will dropped out on February 3.
Who wanted him to run?
Social conservatives. The former Pennsylvania senator didn't have an obvious constituency in 2012, yet he still went a long way, and Foster Friess, who bankrolled much of Santorum’s campaign then, was ready for another round.
Could he have won the nomination?
Never. As much as Santorum felt he deserved more respect for his 2012 showing, neither voters nor the press seemed inclined to give it to him, and he remained trapped in the basement. Even in Iowa, which he narrowly won in 2012, he came in almost last, ahead of only Jim Gilmore.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.
RAND PAUL
Who is he?
An ophthalmologist and the son of libertarian icon Ron Paul, he rode the 2010 Republican wave into the Senate, representing Kentucky.
Is he running?
No. He suspended his campaign on February 3.
Who wanted him to run?
Some Ron Paul fans; Tea Partiers; libertarians; civil libertarians; noninterventionist Republicans.
Could he have won the nomination?
Once tabbed by Time as the most interesting man in politics, he failed to elicit much interest from voters. The deathwatch stories in December (and September and October) were clearly premature, but they weren’t wrong.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.
MIKE HUCKABEE
Who is he?
An ordained preacher, a former governor of Arkansas, and a Fox News host, he ran a strong campaign in 2008, finishing third but sat out in 2012.
Is he running?
No. Huckabee dropped out on February 1 after pulling less than 2 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses.
Who wanted him to run?
Social conservatives; evangelical Christians.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Evangelicals, his old base, flocked to Ted Cruz instead. Huckabee’s answer was to play a populist, but that never really took.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
It’s pretty good.
LINDSEY GRAHAM
Who is he?
A senator from South Carolina, he’s John McCain’s closest ally in the small caucus of Republicans who are moderate on many issues but very hawkish on foreign policy.
Is he running?
No sir. Graham kicked off the campaign June 1, 2015, but suspended it on December 21.
Who wanted him to run?
John McCain, naturally; Senator Kelly Ayotte, possibly; Joe Lieberman, maybe?
Could he have won the nomination?
No. But he had some fun in losing it.
What else do we know?
Graham promised to have a rotating first lady if he won. We were rooting for Lana del Rey.
BOBBY JINDAL
Who is he?
A Rhodes Scholar, he’s the former governor of Louisiana. He previously served in the U.S. House.
Is he running?
No. He kicked off his campaign on June 24, 2015, but suspended it on November 17.
Who wanted him to run?
It was hard to say. Jindal assiduously courted conservative Christians, both with a powerful conversion story (he was raised Hindu but converted to Catholicism in high school) and policies (after other governors reversed course, he charged forward with a religious-freedom law). But he still trailed other social conservatives like Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Jindal never gained traction at the national level, faced an overcrowded field of social conservatives, and his stewardship of Louisiana came in for harsh criticism even from staunch fiscal conservatives.
What else do we know?
In 1994, he wrote an article called “Physical Dimensions of Spiritual Warfare,” in which he described a friend’s apparent exorcism.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
Meh. Good joke, but past its expiration date.
RICK PERRY
Who is he?
George W. Bush’s successor as governor of Texas, he entered the 2012 race with high expectations but sputtered out quickly. He left office in 2014 as the Lone Star State’s longest-serving governor.
Is he running?
No. He announced on June 4, 2015, but dropped out of the race on September 11, 2015.
Who wanted him to run?
Bueller?
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Perry promoters insisted that Rick 2016 was a polished, smart campaigner, totally different from the meandering, spacey Perry of 2012. It didn’t seem to matter. Perry had to quit paying his staff in South Carolina and New Hampshire, and was down to a single staffer in Iowa when he dropped out.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
That depends. Is this an “oops” joke? If so, yes.
SARAH PALIN
Who is she?
If you have to ask now, you must not have been around in 2008. That’s when John McCain selected the then-unknown Alaska governor as his running mate. After the ticket lost, she resigned her term early and became a television personality.
Is she running?
No. Despite a bizarre speech in January 2015 that made a compelling case both ways.
Who wanted her to run?
Palin still has diehard grassroots fans, but there are fewer than ever.
Could she have won the nomination?
No.
MITT ROMNEY
Who is he?
The Republican nominee in 2012 was also governor of Massachusetts and a successful businessman.
Is he running?
Probably not, but who knows! He announced in late January 2015 that he would step aside, but now New York claims that the Trump boom has him reconsidering.
Who wanted him to run?
Former staffers; prominent Mormons; Hillary Clinton’s team. Romney polled well, but it’s hard to tell what his base would have been. Republican voters weren’t exactly ecstatic about him in 2012, and that was before he ran a listless, unsuccessful campaign. Party leaders and past donors were skeptical at best of a third try.
Could he have won the nomination?
He proved the answer was yes, but it didn't seem likely to happen again.
JOHN BOLTON
Who is he?
A strident critic of the United Nations and a leading hawk, he was George W. Bush’s ambassador to the United Nations for 17 months.
Is he running?
Nope. After announcing his announcement, in the style of the big-time candidates, he posted on Facebook that he wasn’t running.
Who wanted him to run?
Even among super-hawks, he didn’t seem to be a popular pick, likely because he had no political experience.
Could he have won the nomination?
They say anything is possible in politics, but this would test the rule. A likelier outcome could be a plum foreign-policy role in a hawkish GOP presidency.
SCOTT WALKER
Who is he?
Elected governor of Wisconsin in 2010, Walker earned conservative love and liberal hate for his anti-union policies. In 2013, he defeated a recall effort, and he won reelection the following year.
Is he running?
No. Walker dropped out of the race on September 21, 2015.
Who wanted him to run?
Walker was a favorite of conservatives who detest the labor movement because of his union-busting in Wisconsin. He attracted interest from the Koch brothers, and some establishment Republicans saw him as the perfect marriage of executive know-how, business-friendly credentials, and social conservatism without culture-warrior baggage.
Could he have won the nomination?
For months, Walker was considered—along with Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio—a top-tier contender for the nomination. Hurricane Trump hurt all three, but none more than Walker. After largely fading from view during the second presidential debate, he polled below 1 percent in a national CNN poll. Perhaps a radically different campaign would have produced a different result, but Walker didn’t seem ready for national prime time.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
Aye, matey.
GEORGE PATAKI
Who is he?
Pataki ousted incumbent Governor Mario Cuomo in 1994 and served three terms as governor of New York.
Is he running?
No. He announced his entry on May 28, 2015, but dropped out on December 29—using the free TV time he’d won to compensate for Donald Trump’s Saturday Night Live appearance.
Who wanted him to run?
Apparently no one: His RealClearPolitics average by the time he dropped out was a neat 0.0. Establishment Northeastern Republicans once held significant sway over the party, but those days have long since passed.
Could have have won the nomination?
Nope.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.
* * *
Democrats
MARTIN O'MALLEY
Who is he?
He’s a former governor of Maryland and former mayor of Baltimore.
Is he running?
No. O’Malley announced he was suspending his campaign after getting less than 1 percent in the February 1 Iowa caucuses.
Who wanted him to run?
Not clear. He has some of the leftism of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren but without the same grassroots excitement.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Why O’Malley—who says all the right progressive things—couldn’t gain any momentum among progressives who seem eager for Sanders, for Warren, really for anyone but Clinton, is a fascinating conundrum.
What else do we know?
Have you heard that he plays in a Celtic rock band? You have? Oh.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.
LAWRENCE LESSIG
Who is he?
Lessig is a professor at Harvard Law School, a political activist, and an occasional Atlantic contributor.
Is he running?
No. Having announced a run in early September, he dropped out on November 2, 2015.
Who wanted him to run?
Lessig’s campaign was designed to cater almost exclusively to the many Americans who are upset about the influence of money in politics. He pitched himself as a “referendum president” who would pass his proposed Citizens Equality Act of 2017, which would enact universal voting registration, campaign-finance limits, and anti-gerrymandering provisions.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. In dropping out, he cited his inability to break into the Democratic debates, but given his lack of electoral experience, his idiosyncratic platform, and the track record of his Mayday PAC in the 2014 election, he never really had a shot.
What else do we know?
In a season six episode of The West Wing, a fictional Lessig (played by Christopher Lloyd) worked with the White House to write a new constitution for Belarus.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
“Sorry, we’re too busy fixing democracy to design a clever 404 page!” You have time now!
LINCOLN CHAFEE
Who is he?
The son of beloved Rhode Island politician John Chafee, Linc took his late father’s seat in the U.S. Senate, serving as a Republican. He was governor, first as an Independent and then as a Democrat.
Is he running?
No. Chafee announced his run on June 3, 2015, but ended it October 23.
Who wanted him to run?
You can meet all 10 of them in this great NPR piece.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Chafee’s showing in the first debate was so bad that even Wolf Blitzer begged him to get out for his own reputation’s sake.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.
JOE BIDEN
Who is he?
Biden is the vice president and the foremost American advocate for aviator sunglasses and passenger rail.
Is he running?
No. After lengthy deliberation, Biden ruled out a run on October 21, 2015.
Who wanted him to run?
The original driving force for the run seems to have been the late Beau Biden, along with his brother, Hunter. An outside group called Draft Biden (slogan: “I’m Ridin’ With Biden”) tried to coax him in.
Could he have won the nomination?
It’s highly doubtful. Even when Hillary Clinton was at her weakest, she had huge organizational advantages. And past presidential campaigns showed that Biden, while compelling, could be an undisciplined, self-defeating candidate.
ELIZABETH WARREN
Who is she?
Warren has taken an improbable path from Oklahoma, to Harvard Law School, to progressive heartthrob, to Massachusetts senator.
Is she running?
Are you still scrolling down here to check? Not a chance, amigo.
Who wanted her to run?
Progressive Democrats; economic populists; disaffected Obamans; disaffected Bushites.
Could she have won the nomination?
No, because she’s not running.
* * *
Independents
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Who is he?
The billionaire finance-and-technology entrepreneur was benevolent dictator mayor of New York from 2002 to 2013.
Is he running?
No. After months of trial balloons, he announced on March 7 that he would not run. Don’t say we didn’t tell you.
Who wanted him to run?
If the past is any indication, it was mostly Bloomberg aides.
Could he have won the nomination?
Bloomberg himself repeatedly belittled his own electability for years, either as an individual or, in the abstract, as a third-party candidate. “When I look at the data, it’s clear to me that if I entered the race, I could not win,” he wrote when he decided not to run. And he was almost certainly right. It’s hard to imagine who would vote for him, especially if Clinton wins the Democratic nod: He’s slightly to the right of her, but Republicans hate him, and he makes her seem like Miss Congeniality.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
Please. This is a guy who doesn’t even think websites are necessary.
JIM WEBB
Who is he?
Webb is a Vietnam War hero, author, and former secretary of the Navy. He served as a senator from Virginia from 2007 to 2013.
Is he running?
No. Webb launched a Democratic bid July 2, 2015, but dropped it October 20, 2015. He has since made noises about mounting an Independent campaign, but on February 11 said he would not run. He now says he won’t vote for Clinton but might support Trump.
Who wanted him to run?
As a Democrat, doves; the Anybody-But-Hillary camp; my colleague James Fallows. As an Independent? Maybe some of the same socially conservative, economically populist Democrats who backed him before. But he barely registered in the race the first time around.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Every Independent candidate is at best a very long shot, and Webb’s weaknesses—dislike for campaigning, weak fundraising, heterodox views—were on clear display during his Democratic bid.
Did his website have a good 404 page?
No.