Week Two NFL DFS: Math says: use Jordan
Welcome to the second weekly edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each week throughout the NFL season our weekly NFL analysis will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the week based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Thursday Slate Note: We recommend attacking this slate aggressively. We generally suggest playing the Thursday slate when you can 1) attack a core value play or 2) fade the game completely. This game has one of the lower totals of the week (41.5) and features two of the better defenses in the NFL. With higher priced players on both side (Charles, Kelce, D. Thomas, P. Manning, etc), this is a great spot to fade the game and hope your opponents use up meaningful salary on below average options.
Quarterbacks – The featured site for the quarterback position is DraftDay
Top 5 Quarterbacks
1) Drew Brees (NO)
2) Andrew Luck (IND)
3) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
4) Russell Wilson (SEA)
5) Sam Bradford (PHI)
6) Tony Romo (DAL)
7) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
8) Eli Manning (NYG)
9) Matt Ryan (ATL)
10) Carson Palmer (ARZ)
Top Play:
Drew Brees (NO) – The Buccaneers defense was torched at home by a Tennessee offense that isn’t expected to be an above average passing attack this season. Both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus ranked the Bucs in the bottom five of pass defenses in the opening week. Last season, they finished in the bottom ten of pass rankings on both sites. The Saints have the second highest implied team total this week (28.5 points) and historically at home their offense has been a juggernaut under Drew Brees. Since 2011, Brees has averaged 325 yards and three touchdowns per game at home compared to 325 yards per game and 1.9 touchdowns per game on the road. The primary concern with Brees is game script, but according to the RotoViz Game Splits App Brees has averaged 3.6 touchdowns per game in games (17 games) the Saints have won by 10 points or more at home and 2.1 touchdowns per game in all other contests (48 games). The quarterback position has immense depth to it with a number of cheaper options that we really like. Our lean is to focus on Brees exposure in tournaments and get exposure to cheaper quarterbacks along with the Saints running game, but his price tag is fine to attack in cash games.
Value Plays:
Sam Bradford (PHI) – You’ll notice a lot of the players in the Monday night games this past week haven’t seen their prices adjust much. The sites like to release pricing for the next week on Mondays and as a result players in those games often remain static. This is the case with Sam Bradford, who we valued as an underpriced asset in Week 1. Bradford launched 52 pass attempts while the Eagles ran off 68 plays in a game that was littered with penalties (which can slow down pace). The Eagles were first in pace last season and we expect them to sit atop those standings again this season. Those extra plays add up for key players and provide additional value. Bradford’s price point around the industry hasn’t adjusted for his role with the Eagles (we expect it will in Week 3). They have the highest implied team total on the slate. This is a neutral matchup for Bradford in the offense that carries the highest implied team total this week. We rank him as a Top Five quarterback this week and the price tag simply doesn’t reflect that around the industry. Our featured site DraftDay is one of the few sites that has Bradford priced appropriately.
Carson Palmer (ARZ) – We touched extensively on the Bears defense in Week 1. They’re a 3-4 defense with 4-3 personnel after an offseason coaching change. They were ineffective in Week 1 against the Packers, ranking 31st in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA, and we expect that ineffectiveness to continue. Chris Johnson has never been a particularly efficient red zone running back and the Cardinals have been a red zone passing team with Carson Palmer at the helm. As a result, we expect Palmer and the Cardinals passing attack to carry the bulk of the scoring responsibility. Palmer has historically had a big split in his production against bottom half defenses. Since joining the Cardinals in 2013, he’s averaged 277 yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 7.86 yards per attempt against bottom half pass defenses compared to 256 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, and 7.0 yards per attempt against top half defenses.
Tournament Play:
Russell Wilson (SEA) – We think he’s viable in cash games, but the way lineup construction will guide you will make him a better target in tournaments this week on most sites. The Packers defense struggled in Week 1 against a Bears offense that we project as below average this season and they were demolished in their third preseason game by the up-tempo Eagles passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks ran 22 no huddle snaps after not running more than five in a game all last season. Given the Bears and Eagles have recently had success with this tactic against the Packers, we expect it to continue this week. The concern with Wilson is always volume of attempts but an up-tempo attack would mitigate those concerns and the Packers shaky history with running quarterbacks under Dom Capers reign, makes Wilson an enticing play.
Additional quarterback notes: The quarterback projections and rankings are really bunched. As a result, we’ve extended it out to 10 ranked quarterbacks this week to help evaluate where pricing gaps may exist around the industry. Tony Romo (DAL), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Eli Manning (NYG), and Matt Ryan (ATL) all project closely and are priced accordingly on most sites. They’re viable cash game targets if the price point separates from the pack, but otherwise are better suited for tournaments. We believe Manning has the highest upside of the four. He’s playing at home against an opposing offense that can increase the number of plays because they’re so pass dependent and the Giants have the highest implied total of the group. Romo and Roethlisberger’s projections slightly outpace Eli and his production has a smaller range of outcomes, but Manning is the stronger tournament play. On DraftDay, our featured site, Eli Manning is priced as a potential cash game option with Drew Brees as our primary target and Eli as our secondary target. Tyrod Taylor (BUF) remains a fine cash game option on a site where his price is well below all the other quarterback options. He played very well last week against the Colts but the Bills slowed the tempo in the second half considerably. Against the Patriots, it’s unlikely that situation is replicated. Pro Football Focus graded the Patriots as the third worst defense in Week 1 while Football Outsiders had them ranked 25th. His projection comes in closer to the Top 15, so we’d really want a discounted price tag to attack in cash games. In tournaments, Marcus Mariota (TEN) and Andy Dalton (CIN) grade out as strong options relative to their price points. Dalton has historically performed better outside of his division (6.2 yards per attempt, 223 yards per game, and 1.25 touchdowns per game against divisional opponents compared to 8.0 yards per attempt, 251 yards per game and 1.86 touchdowns per game) and his price point isn’t far above the minimum on many sites. Mariota was exceptional in Week 1 and his ownership will likely sky rocket in Week 2. Quarterback is a position where the point totals for individual quarterbacks often don’t allow a ton of separation (results tend to clump together), so we’re less concerned with ownership and more with upside. Mariota didn’t show off the running game much in Week 1, but we know it’s there given his college performances at Oregon. The Browns defense graded out below average in both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders’ rankings in Week 1.
Running Back – The featured site for the running back position is FanDuel
Top 10 Running Backs
1) Matt Forte (CHI)
2) Marshawn Lynch (SEA)
3) Jamaal Charles (KC)
4) Justin Forsett (BAL)
5) DeMarco Murray (PHI)
6) Eddie Lacy (GB)
7) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
8) Mark Ingram (NO) – if Spiller active, slides down eighth
9) Jeremy Hill (CIN)
10a) Lamar Miller (MIA)
10b) Carlos Hyde (SF)
Top Plays:
Matt Forte (CHI) – Forte is one of the few running backs in the league that isn’t dependent on game scripts for Fantasy value. Despite trailing all of last week, Forte racked up 24 carries and five receptions. The Cardinals were among the toughest defenses in the league to run on last season but they allowed 15 receptions to running backs in Week 1. With Alshon Jeffery squaring off against Patrick Peterson, the Bears offense figures to shift some additional market share down the pecking order in the passing game. We expect that will serve Forte and Martellus Bennet well.
Marshawn Lynch (SEA) – Lynch is typically a player we like to target at home. Since 2011, Lynch has averaged 4.5 more Fantasy points per game at home and 6.3 more Fantasy points per game in Seahawks wins. As a slight underdog on the road, this introduces some risk in Lynch’s elevated price point. The good news is Lynch played 75 percent of snaps last week and received seven targets. Lynch played 75 percent of snaps or more in a game just once last season and never got more than five targets in a game. Robert Turbin averaged 23.7 percent of snaps and picked up 20 targets during the season. Fred Jackson picked up some of that work with Turbin gone last week, but Lynch’s workload in the passing game was particularly encouraging. The Packers run defense was shredded in Week 1 and now they face a more prolific running game in the Seahawks. In two meetings against the Packers last season, Lynch averaged 133.5 yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns. He’s our second ranked running back this week and offers a bit of salary relief from Forte.
Value Plays:
Justin Forsett (BAL) – Forsett faced the toughest matchup he’ll get all season last week against a stout Broncos run defense. While Forsett struggled, along with the entire Ravens offense, he did tally 18 touches while maintaining a 61 percent market share of carries and incredible 33 percent market share of targets. The Ravens lack depth in offensive skill position players with Perriman and Pitta injured and Forsett is carrying a hefty workload. The Raiders defense graded out below average in both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders rankings for Week 1 and game flow projects favorably for Forsett and the Ravens. Forsett isn’t the most skilled back but he’s one of the few with a guaranteed workload in both the rushing and receiving games. Among top running backs, he’s also one of the few that is playing as a favorite where game flow is very likely to benefit him.
Mark Ingram (NO) – Ingram’s Week 1 was really encouraging for his DFS value because of his contributions in the passing game. How much of this carries over when CJ Spiller returns is a big question, but Ingram received 21 percent of the team targets. He wasn’t effective on the ground (2.7 YPC) but the matchup with Arizona was especially difficult. Tampa Bay ranked bottom five in run defenses on both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus for Week 1. The game script should be exceptional for Ingram this week as the Saints are 10 point favorites at home. If Spiller returns, there is some concern that Ingram will be splitting snaps three ways (same concerns over DeMarco Murray) which could limit the upside. Spiller was able to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday and if he does return, our exposure to Ingram would be heavily tied to price. On FanDuel, our featured site, he’d be more difficult to play at $8,000.
Lamar Miller (MIA) – Miller played just 58 percent of offensive snaps last year and even during the second half of the season when he broke out a bit, he was playing 60-70 percent of snaps. In Week 1, Miller played 81 percent of the Dolphins snaps and owned a 76 percent market share of caries. The Jaguars ranked in the bottom five of Pro Football Focus’ run defense rankings last season and didn’t do a ton to upgrade the unit this offseason. With game flow likely in his favor (Dolphins are six point favorites), Miller should approach 17-20 touches and last year he owned a 23 percent market share of touchdowns. With the Dolphins projected for just over three touchdowns, he’s got a decent chance of finding the end zone.
Danny Woodhead (SD) – Woodhead’s value is typically tied to just the point per reception value but we found his red zone usage particularly interesting last week against the Lions. Woodhead received a ridiculous 61 percent market share of red zone opportunities including six red zone carries and two red zone targets. To put that number in perspective, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, and Marshawn Lynch were the only players above 40 percent last season. Cincinnati is a similar defense to the Lions. They’re strong up front and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top run defense in Week 1, while ranking as Football Outsiders seventh ranked defense overall. In these types of matchups, Woodhead typically garners more snaps and opportunities as the Chargers try to spread out good defenses. With a price point that isn’t too far above the minimum, he’s your safest source of pure salary relief at the position.
Additional running back notes: Carlos Hyde (SF) was a true workhorse on Monday night (75 percent snap share, 80 percent market share of carries) and gets a soft Steelers’ defense. We like the matchup an awful lot but Hyde could be vulnerable to game script. The Steelers are five point favorites at home and have had an extended week of preparation while the 49ers are flying cross country on a short week to play an early game. If the Steelers get up early, we’re unsure of how it impacts Hyde’s role. We love Hyde in tournaments and think he’s a viable cash game option, but we’re concerned with the floor if game script goes bad. Chris Ivory (NYJ) is a lower upside version of Hyde with the same game script concerns. A pair of rookies really stand out on a per touch basis, but we have questions about their workloads. Ameer Abdullah (DET) shined in his debut (94 total yards and a touchdown on 11 touches) but it’s tough to rely on just 10-12 touches in cash games. The matchup against Minnesota’s horrific run defense that was exposed on Monday night is a tremendous one to pick on, we’d just prefer to do it in tournaments until we’re certain the role expands. David Johnson (ARZ) is another rookie running back in an elite matchup, but his role is even less clear. He earned just one touch last week and even without Andre Ellington available, the Cardinals appear committed to Chris Johnson (ARZ). The Bears run defense is so bad it could make Chris Johnson a viable value play, but we’re not particularly excited to roster him in cash games. The price isn’t bad. Tevin Coleman (ATL) is another favored tournament play. He consistently demonstrated big play ability in college and earned the bulk of the carries in Week 1. Game script as slight underdogs could hurt Coleman as Devonta Freeman primarily took his work on passing downs. Benny Cunningham (STL) is sort of in the same boat. If he has the backfield to himself again, the cheap tag makes him viable, but he’s not someone we’re excited to target. Other potential cost effective RB options we think have value in tournaments include: Khiry Robinson (NO), Lance Dunbar (DAL), and Darren Sproles (PHI), all of which we consider to be viable targets. We prefer Dunbar and Sproles on full point per reception sites only, while Robinson stands out more on half point per reception sites as you’re hoping for a touchdown and some garbage time work.
Wide Receiver – The featured site for the wide receiver position is DraftKings
Top 10 WR Rankings
1) Antonio Brown (PIT)
2) Julio Jones (ATL)
3) Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)
4) Jordan Matthews (PHI)
5) Calvin Johnson (DET)
6) A.J. Green (CIN)
7) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
8) Keenan Allen (SD)
9) Brandin Cooks (NO)
10) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Top Plays:
Antonio Brown (PIT) – We marveled at Brown’s efficiency and his floor in our recommendation for Week 1 and once again Brown delivered. The matchup this week is a bit more favorable as he’ll likely line up most often against Dontae Johnson who earned a -3.1 pass coverage grade from Pro Football Focus last season. Brown didn’t see the expected uptick in market share (29 percent) we had hoped for in Week 1 without Le’veon Bell around, but the upside remains. Last week those targets went to Darrius Heyward-Bey and Heath Miller. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown get a few extra shifted his way and rack up 12-15 targets this week. Brown was also surprisingly absent from the red zone game plan (7.7 percent market share of red zone opportunities) last week but against a stout run defense like the 49ers, we expect Brown to pick up more chances. He’s the top wide receiver in our projection model and has the highest floor of any wide receiver in action.
Julio Jones (ATL) – Julio was remarkably efficient with his 11 targets last week (9-141-2) and he did it in a matchup that figures to be slightly more difficult than his matchup this week. Jones largely squared off with Byron Maxwell who allowed an 81.1 rating last season according to Pro Football Focus and this week he’ll face Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie who allowed an 88.3 rating. Both were top half corners, but we were impressed with how well Kyle Shannahan schemed to get Jones in space on short quick hitting routes. Jones dominated market share as we expected (32.35 percent of targets) and we think there is room for additional growth. Historically, Jones has been more heavily targeted on the road (10.08 targets per game compared to 8.5 targets per game) and more productive on the road (17.5 Fantasy points per game compared to 13.74 at home) according to the RotoViz Game Splits App. If paying up for a stud wide receiver we think either Brown or Jones are the way to go this week.
Value Plays:
Jordan Matthews (PHI) – Matthews is one of the other pieces from that Monday Night game that didn’t see his price adjust and we believe he’s dramatically undervalued around the industry. Matthews earned 25 percent of the Eagles targets in Week 1 including 40 percent in the red zone. He continues to dominate in the slot which helps him avoid elite opposing corners and increases his floor with a lower average depth of target. This week he’ll likely see Tyler Patmon, an undrafted free agent in the 2014 draft class that played limited snaps in 2014. Last week he was targeted seven times and Giants receivers converted them into just three receptions for 32 yards. It wasn’t a poor effort from Patmon but the sheer volume of targets suggests opposing offenses want to pick on him specifically. Matthews projects as a Top Five receiver in our projection system and is severely underpriced on our featured site, DraftKings.
Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley (DAL) – It’s likely two of the three receiving options come through and pay off their price tags in Dallas this week. The loss of Dez Bryant will shift market share considerably (Dez had a market share up near 30 percent last season) and increase opportunities for a few, if not, all of the receiving options. Williams (14 percent), Beasley (nine percent), and Witten (19 percent) all had relatively low target totals last year. Williams has been incredibly efficient in his career (9.7 yards per target) but has always had a low reception rate (58 percent) due to running deep routes. The two go hand-in-hand and make it difficult to project how much of Bryant’s role Williams can actually fill. Beasley is the exact opposite. He owns a 70 percent catch rate but just 7.2 yards per target. Beasley has very limited upside but on a full point per reception site like DraftKings with a near minimum price ($3,300) he’s a solid cash game option. Williams has superior upside but if his route tree doesn’t expand with Bryant out, we’ll see the targets funnel to Witten, Beasley, and Dunbar. Our projection system likes him because it’s expanding his efficiency on a higher market share, but that may be a mistake extrapolating a completely different role. The cheap price tag in an up-tempo matchup makes him viable regardless, but we do think there is more volatility in Williams.
Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown (ARZ) – Larry Fitzgerald led the team in targets (eight) in Week 1 but John Brown was just one behind (seven). Brown has all the buzz and preseason hype but Fitzgerald has been more efficient with targets over the past year (7.84 yards per target vs. 6.75 yards per target). We do expect Brown to be the more dynamic playmaker as the season wears on, but early in the year they’re pretty comparable options. We think Brown’s ability to stretch the field gives him a higher upside than Fitzgerald but ultimately it’s acceptable to allow price point to dictate your decision here. The Bears have weak corners throughout the secondary (McManis has barely played corner in the NFL and done so poorly, Allan Ball earned a -3.1 pass coverage grade last year and allowed 51 yards and two touchdowns on five targets last week, and Kyle Fuller earned a -17.2 pass coverage grade from Pro Football Focus last year) so no matter where they line up the Cardinals wide receivers will earn a favorable matchup.
Davante Adams/James Jones (GB) – Richard Sherman notably played some snaps in the slot last weekend which would indicate a change in approach from the days with Dan Quinn running the defense. Sherman used to just play a side and opposing teams could maneuver their top wide receiver away from Sherman while sticking a “decoy” on him. The Packers did this last season in the opener with Jarrett Boykin and it allowed Jordy Nelson (9-83) and Randall Cobb (6-58-1) to get opportunities. If Sherman is going to move around more to get in spots against elite wide receivers, you have to think the Seahawks are most likely to deploy Sherman on Randall Cobb. If this is the case, Davante Adams and James Jones should see an uptick in opportunities. Adams led the Packers in yards, targets, and snaps last week but Jones was the one scoring touchdowns and thus garnering Fantasy attention. It is unlikely Jones continues to score multiple times in games with just four targets but on sites where the price is hovering around the minimum (FanDuel), he’s an adequate value. We prefer him in tournaments. Adams looks like the slightly safer bet for cash games and we think most will overreact to a “poor” performance last week, pushing his ownership down in tournaments as well. Unless going directly to the source with Aaron Rodgers (and we feel there are better quarterback values), Adams looks like the most reasonable way to get exposure to the Packers 26.25 implied team total.
Stevie Johnson (SD) – Johnson remains underpriced for his role in the Chargers’ offense. His average depth of reception was just 0.5 yards down the field as he earned his production on bubble screens and short drag routes. He caught all six of his targets and is still priced just above the minimum on most sites. He should represent a poor man’s Jarvis Landry most of the season. He’ll face Leon hall who allowed 107.1 rating to opposing wide receivers last year according to Pro Football Focus (13th worst in the NFL). A favorable matchup coupled with a favorable expected game script (covered in the Woodhead recommendation) makes Johnson a viable secondary target in cash games.
Additional wide receiver notes: Brandin Cooks (NO) and DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) are two of our favorite tournament plays. Cooks has a great matchup but his price point is close enough to Jordan Matthews in cash games that we prefer just getting exposure to the more consistent option in the higher volume offense, with a higher implied team total. Hopkins is just a target monster with some of the best skills in the NFL. His performance Week 1 will likely bump ownership in tournaments but hopefully the lower total and a good Panthers secondary will push it back down a degree. Eric Decker (NYJ) is another strong tournament target. We expect Vontae Davis to lock up with Brandon Marshall which should funnel targets to Eric Decker. He’ll likely get Darius Butler who had the 16th worst rating against opposing wide receivers last year. Julian Edelman (NE) is a fine secondary cash target on full point per reception sites. The Patriots will likely struggle to run the ball against Buffalo and utilize Edelman as a de facto running game with short routes. Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) rates as our third ranked receiver but we think there is a decent bit of volatility in his profile this week. The Falcons have a true shut down corner in Desmond Trufant and if the Giants aren’t creative in moving Beckham around it could be a difficult day. This makes Rueben Randle (NYG) a potential tournament target given the high implied team total for the Giants. A.J. Green (CIN) and Calvin Johnson (DET) are potential bounce-back candidates after a difficult opening week. Green gets Brandon Flowers who isn’t a poor corner but all of the Chargers corners are small. Green should have a big size advantage over them in the red zone. Calvin only received four targets in Week 1 as the Lions just never had the ball. It’s been a popular topic which could lead to an over-correction of opportunities early in the game. The price tag lands in limbo a bit, making him a better play in tournaments. Donte Moncrief (IND) is a tremendous tournament target with T.Y. Hilton’s status in doubt. Moncrief saw 11 targets in Week 1 and if Revis shadows Andre Johnson, Moncrief will likely serve as the most heavily targeted option in the Colts offense. The risk with Moncrief is that he’s the one Revis shadows if the Jets diagnose Moncrief as a bigger threat than Andre Johnson. As a result, even if Hilton is out, we think it’s difficult to trust him in cash games. Nelson Agholor (PHI) is going to be an interesting tournament play soon, we’re just not sure a matchup with Brandon Carr fits. Carr was terrible last season but held his own against Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 1 and was a good corner throughout his career before last season. Agholor was non-existent with targets but played 80 percent of snaps. In that offense, we believe he’s worth a look as a sprinkle on GPP lineups. Charles Johnson (MIN) is another compelling tournament option as he should line up against Rashean Mathis who Keenan Allen torched Week 1.
Tight Ends – The featured site for the tight end position is Fantasy Aces
Top 5 Tight End Rankings
1) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
2) Travis Kelce (KC)
3) Jason Witten (DAL)
4) Jimmy Graham (SEA)
5a) Martellus Bennett (CHI)
5b) Tyler Eifert (CIN)
Top Play:
Rob Gronkowski (NE) – To Gronk or not to Gronk, that is the question. On paper Gronkowski’s matchup with the Bills is a challenge. They’re an elite defense, he’s on the road, and he’s not going to pop in projection models. On the other hand, in difficult matchups the Patriots are most likely to rely on their best player. The likely inability to run in the red zone should make Gronkowski the emphasis inside that area and the Patriots have an adequate team total (22.5) for a guy that when healthy has routinely held a market share of touchdowns greater than 25 percent. We think the ownership in cash games is likely low (a number of strong tight end values) and we’re more confident in the secondary tight end values as opposed to the depth of wide receiver values. As a result, our lean is to use Gronkowski in tournaments, if playing a solo cash game lineup, or mixing him in alongside core plays if playing multiple lineups. On a site like Fantasy Aces ($5,850) where Gronkowski is priced like an elite wide receiver, we think it’s easier to fade him in cash games.
Value Plays:
Jason Witten (DAL) – The Eagles were very good against tight ends last season (third fewest Fantasy points per game) and Witten historically hasn’t produced much against the Eagles (8-77 total in two games last season). On the flip side, Dez Bryant’s absence likely pushes Witten’s expected market share up into the low twenties. The Cowboys will play up in pace and are solid underdogs (five points) with a healthy team total (25 points). We think Witten has a pretty good chance of reaching 8-10 targets, which makes him a nice value.
Jordan Reed (WAS) – Reed saw 11 targets in the opener (35 percent market share) and with Desean Jackson sidelined, he should remain a focal point. The Washington offense is one of the weakest spots to attack this week (18.5 implied team total) but Reed remains underpriced for his skill set (career 10.1 yards per catch, 75.5 percent catch rate).
Heath Miller (PIT) – Miller also saw 11 targets last week (29 percent market share) and settled in as Roethlisberger’s secondary target with Le’veon Bell sidelined. The 49ers should struggle against tight ends this year after losing Chris Borland and Patrick Willis. Miller isn’t as skilled as Reed but we’re more optimistic on the offense. The Steelers have a solid 25 point team total and their goal line struggles last week will likely continue against a decent 49ers run defense. Miller’s got a little more touchdown potential than Reed, but a bit lower floor as he’s simply a less dynamic player.
Additional tight end notes: Martellus Bennett (CHI) and Tyler Eifert (CIN) are very strong secondary value plays at the position. Their projections are slightly weaker than Witten but they carry more upside as pure talents and red zone threats. We think they both represent easy pivots off Witten in tournaments and viable alternatives in cash games. Greg Olsen (CAR) is in that same range and comes with a bit less upside than Bennett or Eifert who are more productive in the red zone. Ladarius Green (SD) is cheap enough to earn strong consideration in cash games, but a plethora of options makes him better in tournaments. Green played 83.5 percent of snaps and ran 37 pass routes on his 66 snaps. He’s exceptionally talented (16.3 yards per catch, a touchdown every 11 receptions in his career) and cheap. He only earned 16.67 percent of the targets last week but if that number bumps, he has huge upside. We think his skill set is cash game worthy, but the role makes him better suited for tournaments. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB) is so cheap on FanDuel that there is strong tournament value there. We’re concerned how his role is impacted by Mike Evans return and the Bucs offense as a whole isn’t a great one to invest in, but the matchup with New Orleans is strong and Seferian-Jenkins is a talented young tight end.
Defense/ST – The featured site for the Defense/ST position is DraftDay
Top 5 Defense/ST Rankings
1a) Baltimore Ravens
1b) Miami Dolphins
3) St. Louis Rams
4) Carolina Panthers
5) New Orleans Saints
Top Play:
Baltimore Ravens/Miami Dolphins – The two lowest opposing team totals are the Jaguars and the Raiders (both under 18). We rank the Ravens defense slightly ahead of the Dolphins on overall skill level and on most sites they’re less expensive. DraftDay, our featured site, has nailed the pricing ($11,700) with the Ravens which makes them a poor choice in cash games. Bortles’ higher career sack rate and interception rate compared to Derek Carr neutralizes some of the difference in skill of the two defenses.
Value Play:
New Orleans Saints – It’s always scary investing in a poor defense but the Saints play a dreadful Bucs offense who have an implied team total of just 18.5 points. The Saints are huge favorites which should encourage a poor game script for turnover prone Jameis Winston. The Saints defense is priced down around the industry and the easiest source of salary relief.
Additional Defense/ST notes: If dipping outside our Top Five for cash games, the Tennessee Titans get a favorable matchup against the Browns. They’re not a particularly talented defense but the matchup is adequate. The Detroit Lions are an above average unit and face the Vikings who struggled so mightily last week. The Denver Broncos are too cheap on most sites for their skill set. The matchup with Alex Smith who simply doesn’t turn the ball over isn’t ideal.
Kickers
Our general kicker strategy is to target kickers on high total teams who are projected to struggle in the red zone (either due to their own offense or the defense they are facing). Additionally, it’s best to completely avoid any possible inclement weather, putting an emphasis on kickers in domes or in games with medium to high temperatures and very little projected wind. Of our featured sites, only FanDuel still includes the kicker position. Here are some cheap targets on that particular site: Josh Brown (NYG) and Zach Hocker (NO). Some more expensive options if you happen to have the room or are in tournaments are Chandler Cataranzo (ARZ), Dan Bailey (DAL), Adam Vinatieri (IND) and Justin Tucker (BAL).
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