Week One NFL DFS: We Don’t Give A-Dams, Play Davante
Welcome to the eighth weekly edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each week throughout the NFL season our weekly NFL analysis will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the week based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Thursday Slate Note: While the Thursday night game looks like a heck of a lot of fun and we’re all itching for some DFS football, we suggest avoiding the slate for cash games. We generally suggest playing the Thursday slate when you can 1) attack a core value play or 2) fade the game completely. This game is difficult because the best options are expensive (the quarterbacks, Brown, Gronkowski), the best cheap value in the game isn’t very good at football (Wheaton), and there’s some uncertainty regarding the PIT RB situation and the NE WR situation. It’s going to be a fun game with lots of DFS scoring, but it seems like there is more of an edge in the Sunday-Monday slates that exclude this game.
Quarterbacks – The featured site for the quarterback position is FanDuel
Top 5 Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Tom Brady (NE)
Tony Romo (DAL)
Peyton Manning (DEN)
Sam Bradford (PHI)
Top Play:
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Our model has the second through ninth ranked quarterbacks on the week all very tightly congested, but Rodgers is the clear-cut top guy. Rodgers led all quarterbacks in Fantasy points per drop back last season (0.63), and while his total volume was lower than a lot of top quarterbacks, only the Broncos averaged more red zone passing attempts per game than the Packers. The loss of Jordy Nelson certainly hurts, but expectations are very high for second year wide receiver Davante Adams, who will step into a starting role with Nelson sidelined. Rodgers will take on a Bears defense that finished last season with the fifth worst Pro Football Focus pass coverage rating and fourth worst pass in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. The addition of John Fox at head coach and Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator may help turn this defense around long term, but things still look pretty bleak in the short term. The team didn’t make any significant upgrades in the offseason and don’t appear to have the personnel to fit the 3-4 defensive scheme yet. Oh, and they cut cornerback Tim Jennings who had a 0.4 Pro Football Focus grade in pass coverage, leaving them starting Kyle Fuller (-17.2, 107th out of 108 qualified players) and Alan Ball (-3.1 in seven games for Jacksonville). Ultimately, there are two strong value plays in Tyrod Taylor and Sam Bradford that make it difficult to spend up at quarterback Week 1. If you choose to go that route, Rodgers is your man, but we’ll likely have small amounts of exposure to him in cash games and look to stack him in large field tournaments with Green Bay receivers.
Value Plays:
Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – As risky as Taylor seems at first glance, he’s actually a chalk play this week, especially on FanDuel where he’s the cheapest priced QB and there are no bonuses for passing yards (on DK this dings his value a bit since Taylor won’t hit the bonus). Regardless of how you feel about Taylor’s capabilities as an NFL QB, min-priced, running QBs are free profit potential. There’s actually not much risk here. In general, for cash games on FanDuel we’re targeting a Fantasy point total two times the player’s salary. So, at Taylor’s $5,000 price tag, we’re aiming for 10 Fantasy points (5.000*2). In three preseason games, about the equivalent of one full game, Taylor ran for 108 yards and a score on 11 rush attempts. Now, we’re not expecting Taylor to have that type of effort on the ground, but 40 yards rushing seems like a reasonable expectation on a per game basis. This is a Buffalo Bills team that is going to be very run-heavy and has an offensive coordinator in Greg Roman, who has experience with a mobile quarterback (Colin Kaepernick). Additionally, the specific contextual factors in this game favor additional rushing attempts for Taylor. LeSean McCoy is banged up. The Bills are going to want to run clock to keep Andrew Luck off the field. The Colts rush defense ranked 19th according to Football Outsiders DVOA last season and were in the bottom half of the league according to Pro Football Focus as well.
With all that said, purely based on yardage Taylor should hit and exceed his 10 Fantasy point threshold on FanDuel. 40-60 yards on the ground puts Taylor at 4-6 FanDuel points, meaning he only needs 4-6 more in the passing game. That’s the equivalent to 100-150 yards passing. Most projections systems around the industry put Taylor around 200-yards in the air. This is what we mean when we say Taylor is all profit potential. Barring an injury or multi-turnover, zero-TD game, pretty much anything Taylor provides over 40 yards rushing and 150 yards passing is a bonus. The math just adds up, and Taylor will be one of the players I have the most exposure to in cash games Week 1. On sites with bonuses for passing yards we’ll diversify a little bit.
Sam Bradford (PHI) – Bradford enters the extremely quarterback-friendly Chip Kelly Eagles offense that allowed Mark Sanchez to average 16.9 FanDuel points per game over nine games (eight starts). The pace at which the Eagles play at is an incredible advantage from a Fantasy perspective. No team ran more plays from scrimmage than the Eagles (66.3 per game), and that translated to 38.8 pass attempts per game, fifth most in the NFL. This is a matchup for Bradford where quantity meets quality as well. The Falcons finished last season dead last in Football Outsiders DVOA. While they’ll likely improve a little bit defensively, we’re not threatened by a team finishing last year with Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked pass rush and 29th ranked pass coverage. Vegas agrees, pegging the Eagles as the highest expected scoring team on the week with a team total of 29.5. Bradford has two big red zone threats in Jordan Matthews (6’3) and Riley Cooper (6’4, 230) and another talented WR in rookie Nelson Agholor, the team’s first round pick out of USC. Bradford and Taylor project as similar per dollar values in our model, but Bradford likely has the higher ceiling due to the offense he is in. On FanDuel, it’s tough to ignore Taylor at minimum salary, but on sites like DraftKings (bonus for 300-plus yards passing) we’ll be more cognizant of mixing Taylor and Bradford in cash games.
Tournament Plays:
Tony Romo (DAL) – Last season, DeMarco Murray paid huge dividends for DFS owners over the first two weeks of the season. It was difficult entering the season to envision the success of the Cowboys running game, at least at that level, especially in terms of the great workload Murray had and the positive game scripts the team was able to get itself into. Murray in Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2014 season is a great example of the difficulty in predicting what will happen early on in the NFL season. Team tendencies change. Player roles expand and diminish. As a result, it makes sense in tournaments early on to focus on individual player skill and to an extent, ditch last year’s statistics and try to be a bit more flexible in projecting what will happen.
With that in mind, the Cowboys are once again great early season targets in tournaments. Last year it was the flip to a power running game (only Seattle and Houston ran on a higher percentage of their team’s plays). This season, we may see more volume out of the passing game as a result of Murray’s departure. According to Football Outsiders, Murray led the NFL in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and was the fifth most effective back on a per play basis. While a lot of the credit for the Dallas running game goes to the offensive line, it’s difficult to see Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden having the same success Murray did. There are three effects this could have on the Dallas offense, all of which benefit the passing game from a Fantasy perspective. 1) The team’s balance between running and passing probably becomes more in line with the league average (that would be about a nine percentage point decrease in run percentage and increase in pass percentage). 2) With the team likely running less and being less effective, they won’t be able to control the clock as much, leading to more overall plays run. 3) Through 15 games last season (we excluded week 17 due to some teams resting), Murray had a 51.4 percent market share of red zone opportunities. That’s also likely to reduce, as Dez Bryant is the team’s clear cut best red zone threat.
Add that all up and you get an offense that will run more plays, pass on a higher percentage of those plays and pass more in the red zone. This gives Tony Romo tournament winning upside in a game that has Dallas pegged as the third highest scoring team of the week (team total around 28-28.5). Romo was third in Fantasy points per drop back among 39 qualified QBs last season. It’s possible he can maintain that type of efficiency with increased targets if a drop off in efficiency between the 20’s is offset by more Fantasy points via increased red zone volume.
Cam Newton (CAR) – We suspect Newton will be low owned Week 1 for a few reasons. For starters, he’s simply not an obvious play. The value play discussion is pretty much dominated by Taylor and Bradford. Newton doesn’t exactly pop from a value perspective as he’s priced like a top 10 QB across the industry. Secondly, the pervading feeling around the Panthers offense is it will struggle without Kelvin Benjamin, who was lost for the season after suffering a knee injury this preseason. Finally, there’s nothing that really sticks out in regards to the matchup. The Jaguars defense was alright from an efficiency standpoint, improving as the season progressed.
Now that we’ve got the reasons Newton will be low owned out of the way, why exactly should you play him? There’s variance in his rushing statistics that make them difficult to predict on a week to week basis but provide him with plenty of upside. If we look at last season, Newton ran for 50-plus yards and a score in four of 14 regular season contests. In those contests, he averaged 28.35 FanDuel points, including hitting the 35 point barrier twice. It needs to be noted that Newton began the year less than 100 percent, missing Week 1 with a rib injury that clearly affected him his first few weeks back. In his first four games of the season, Newton attempted an average of just 3.5 rush attempts per game for an average of 10.5 yards and no touchdowns on the ground. Over his final 10 games, Newton ran in a touchdown in five of them and averaged 47.3 rushing yards per game. In terms of Fantasy, Newton averaged 7.7 FanDuel points per game simply from his rushing statistics over his final 10 contests. As a comparison note on Newton’s ceiling, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers in 32 combined games exceeded 30 FanDuel points four times and 35 FanDuel points just once.
Additional quarterback notes: Additional tournament options at the quarterback position include Tom Brady (NE), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Eli Manning (NYG), Carson Palmer (ARI) (New Orleans defense was terrible last season and the secondary is without Keenan Lewis), and Jameis Winston (TB) (facing one of the worst projected teams in the league; plenty of weapons to utilize, particularly his two big wide receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson who can stretch the field vertically and make an impact in the red zone).
Running Back – The featured site for the running back position is DraftKings
Top 10 Running Backs
Eddie Lacy (GB)
CJ Anderson (DEN)
Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Jamaal Charles (KC)
Matt Forte (CHI)
Marshawn Lynch (SEA)
DeMarco Murray (PHI)
Justin Forsett (BAL)
Jeremy Hill (CIN)
Latavius Murray (OAK)
Top Plays:
Eddie Lacy (GB) – This is a mismatch of one of the league’s best offenses against a bad defense, transitioning to a new scheme despite a lack of personnel fits. Last season the Packers finished first in weighted offensive DVOA while the Bears finished last in weighted defensive DVOA (weighted DVOA places more emphasis on games towards the end of the season). The Packers should move the ball with ease in Week 1, and Lacy, who received more than a quarter of the team’s red zone opportunities a year ago and was ninth in the NFL with 13 rushes inside the five yard line, should get plenty of chances to score for a Packers team tied with Dallas for the third highest team total on the week. It’s even quite possible that his red zone usage ticks upwards with Jordy Nelson out. The game script should be positive for Eddie Lacy and add to his volume as the Packers are seven point favorites, tied for the largest spread of the week. Between Lacy’s skill (second best elusive rating of 18 qualified RBs in 2014, third highest average yards after contact) and his positive situation (good matchup, favorable expected game script, high TD probability), he’s the safest and best running back Week 1. With the ability to find value at quarterback (Taylor, Bradford) and wide receiver (Davante Adams is a core cash game play), look to lock in a safe top tier running back in most cash games. Lacy is that running back.
CJ Anderson (DEN) – Anderson, like Lacy, is the lead back on an elite offense that should find itself with a favorable game script. The Broncos are five point favorites over the Ravens and have the fifth highest projected team total at 27. From Weeks 11-16 last season, Anderson had an average market share of carries of 85 percent, with his lowest week at 72.73. He also averaged 4.8 targets a week in the passing game (twice reaching double digit targets) and a 30.49 percent market share of red zone opportunities. These opportunities are expected to hold this season, especially given new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s reliance on a lead back. The matchup isn’t great (Ravens had the eight best defense last by Football Outsiders DVOA, and fifth best against the run), but this play is all about volume on a high expected scoring offense. The price tag on DraftKings ($7,000) is particularly enticing, as this leaves Anderson cheaper than six other running backs in our top 10 rankings.
Adrian Peterson (MIN) – We’ve gone back and forth on Peterson a few times, shuffling him anywhere from our top back in the rankings to number four. Ultimately, we’ve landed on Peterson as our third ranked back, but certainly see that he has top score upside this week. The concerns with Peterson are twofold. 1) The Vikings have a low team total and much riskier overall offense in comparison to Lacy’s Packers and Anderson’s Broncos. 2) Call him rested. Call him motivated. But at the end of the day, there’s some uncertainty surrounding a 30-year-old running back who played in just one regular season game a year ago.
While those concerns drop Peterson down to third in our rankings, there are a handful of reasons to expect a dominant Week 1, aside from narrative street (rested, angry, motivated). For starters, Peterson is one of the few workhorse backs in the NFL. In 2013, he received 82 percent of his team’s carries and 68 percent in 2014, despite missing two games (around 77 percent in the games he played). Last season through Week 16, only Demarco Murray, Matt Forte and Le’Veon Bell were above 70 percent. Secondly, this Minnesota offense should evolve this season. Between Bridgewater entering his second season, the addition of Mike Wallace at WR and Charles Johnson emerging as a legitimate threat and Peterson back, expect the Vikings offense to be improved and more balanced (threw the ball 57 percent of the time last year, which was league average). Finally, a matchup against San Francisco may seem bad based on perception and last year’s statistics, but this 49ers team is in shambles. Defensively they lost Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Borland to retirement and released Aldon Smith. Borland had a remarkable 16.2 Pro Football Focus grade against the run last season, easily leading 60 qualified inside linebackers. On the D-line, Ray McDonald (6.4 against the run) is also gone. The starters on the D-line are currently Ian Williams (very good against the run last season, but recovering from a broken leg that landed him on IR last year), Quinton Dial (average) and Glenn Dorsey (great against the run in 2013 but missed all of last season with a biceps injury). This defense is headed in the wrong direction. There’s some hope the defensive line will still be good against the run, but there’s also a lot of uncertainty. This isn’t a defense to be feared in Fantasy anymore, especially early in the season.
Value Plays:
Justin Forsett (BAL) – We generally don’t like taking running backs on heavy underdogs, and the Ravens enter week one as five point road dogs against Denver. This situation is an exception however. First off, Forsett is a capable receiver out of the backfield. As a result, a negative game script in the second half doesn’t spell DFS doom for him as it would for someone like Alfred Morris. In fact, anticipated receiving numbers are a big reason we’re high on Forsett. His 44 catches a year ago were certainly solid, but there’s a good chance he sees an uptick in that department under Mark Trestman. Perhaps the reason we like Forsett most is the lack of depth behind him, likely stabilizing (and perhaps raising) his workload between the 20s and in the red zone. Backup RB Lorenzo Taliaferro will miss the game due to injury. Third stringer Buck Allen didn’t exactly earn rave reviews in the preseason, averaging 2.5 yards per carry and fumbling into the end zone in their third contest. Between the combination of a high expected market share and an expected increase in receiving statistics (which keeps Forsett from being game script dependent), Forsett is a safe mid-tier option that is being overlooked Week 1. At $6,200 on DraftKings we’re admittedly more likely to use him in tournaments since we want to go high-low at running back, locking in either Lacy or Anderson in cash games and complementing them with one of the cheap options below (Chris Ivory, Alfred Blue).
Chris Ivory (NYJ) – On a site like FanDuel (loose pricing overall, top RBs are actually the best values), it makes sense to pay up at both running back spots. However, on DraftKings, with the additional FLEX spot and wider salary spread, the values on the low end are just as useful as the high end running backs in both cash and tournament formats. Our favorite low priced value at the position is Ivory ($4,100). Last season Ivory was stuck in a timeshare with Chris Johnson, leaving Ivory with around 40 percent of the team’s carries and Johnson 30 percent. With Johnson out of the picture, that number should certainly rise, likely to over 50 percent. Even with Zac Stacy entering the fold, the New York Post called Chris Ivory the unquestioned starter. Pro Football Focus projects Chris Ivory for a 54 percent market share. He becomes much safer with more work expected between the 20s, and keep in mind he was already the team’s primary red zone back, finishing 2014 tied with the fifth most carries inside the five yard line in the NFL.
Aside from more work, Ivory should benefit from an improved Jets offense that in all likelihood upgrades at the QB position with Ryan Fitzpatrick over Geno Smith and adds Brandon Marshall. Ideally, this will take some pressure off the running game and lead to higher quality opportunities for Ivory. The Jets were favored just four times last season, and Ivory averaged 13.3 Fantasy points per game in those contests as opposed to 7.66 in the 12 games the Jets entered as underdogs. Game script is going to be important for Ivory all season long, and the Jets, despite having a low team total, enter this week’s matchup against the Browns as three point home favorites. With the Browns anemic offense, it’s unlikely the Jets find themselves in a situation where they have to abandon Ivory and the run game. Cleveland had a superb pass defense last season but finished 31st in Football Outsiders rush DVOA and had a negative team grade in run defense according to Pro Football Focus.
Additional running back notes: Alfred Blue (HOU) is the best cheap running back value after Chris Ivory. On any other week, he’d merit his own write up as a value play recommendation. He’s a solid cash game play simply due to expected workload at his price point, but concerns over his skills on a week when opportunity cost is high (easy to pay up at the running back position) prevent him from being a core play. Doug Martin (TB) is a secondary value/great tournament option. He’s looked rejuvenated this preseason (third highest PFF elusive rating), and should get higher quality opportunities as the Tamp Bay offense improves (offensive line has nowhere to go but up, even with a learning curve Winston should be an upgrade at QB, Mike Evans is entering his second season after establishing his skills over the second half of 2014). The matchup against Tennessee is also favorable for Martin, who is a reasonable pivot even in cash games off of Chris Ivory if you don’t need the extra cap relief. Lamar Miller (MIA) is a cheaper pivot from Justin Forsett, and there are a lot of similarities between the two. Miller, like Forsett, isn’t game script dependent due to his receiving skills and should receive a stabilized and/or increased work load given the lack of depth behind him (rookie Jay Ajayi is on IR, leaving Damien Williams and LaMichael James as the two running backs behind Miller on the depth chart). We prefer him in tournaments, but if looking for a RB in cash games around that price point, we’d understand rostering him. While we feel strongly about emphasizing our top three running backs in cash games, any RB with a combination of high usage and great skills deserves a look in tournaments. So, don’t be afraid to fire up Jamaal Charles (KC) and Matt Forte (CHI) on your large field tournament squads, as their ownership percentages are likely to be low. Additional tournament options include Jeremy Hill (CIN), Latavius Murray (OAK), Giovani Bernard (CIN) (particularly for $4,700 on DraftKings; underpriced and actually outscored Hill on a per game basis in PPR formats so if the split is closer than people anticipate there’s a lot of leverage to be gained here) and Ameer Abdullah (DET).
Wide Receiver – The featured site for the wide receiver position is Fantasy Aces
Top 10 WR Rankings
Antonio Brown (PIT)
Julio Jones (ATL)
Dez Bryant (DAL)
Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) (moves to fourth if Victor Cruz is out)
Randall Cobb (GB)
AJ Green (CIN)
Calvin Johnson (DET)
Mike Evans (TB)
Jordan Matthews (PHI)
Top Plays:
Antonio Brown (PIT) – Brown finished 2014 tied with Demaryius Thomas for the league lead in targets (178). The next closest WR finished with 156 (Julio Jones). What makes Brown so special is how efficient he manages to be with so much volume. Even with all that volume, only 15 receivers finished with a catch rate higher than Brown’s 72.5 percent mark. Of those players, only four exceeded 100 targets and only three averaged more yards per catch than Brown’s 13.2. In a projected shootout with the Patriots in which Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are both suspended, it’s scary to think about the volume Brown could receive in this game. He’s as safe of a lock for double digit targets as any receiver in action this week. Aside from more total targets, removing Bell (36 percent market share of red zone opportunities) and Bryant (6’5) should result in more red zone looks for Brown. The Patriots downgraded at cornerback this offseason. Darrelle Revis (15.0 PFF pass coverage grade was fourth best in the NFL) left in free agency, and that leaves the Patriots with Malcolm Butler (only 187 regular season snaps last season, -1.8 in pass coverage) and Tarell Brown (-4.6) as their starting corners. Teammate Markus Wheaton (PIT) is not a very good wide receiver, but the volume he should see (expecting lots of PIT pass attempts, no Bryant/Bell) makes him one of the safest low priced receivers on the week. He’s a cash game target across the industry for those of you partaking in the Thursday slate.
Julio Jones (ATL) – Roddy White hasn’t been ruled out for Week 1, but all the news surrounding his health is pretty grim. At this point, it would be a surprise if White suited up on Sunday. Jones, who had a 27 percent market share of the team’s targets a year ago, received mark shares of 39.29 percent and 29.27 percent a year ago. Between that and new offensive coordinator Kyle Shannahan’s history of feeding number one wide receivers, we’re expecting a market share north of 30 percent for Jones in the opener. He’s the one receiver on the week who challenges Antonio Brown in terms of expected volume. This volume is bolstered by a matchup against a fast paced Eagles team that allowed the second most scrimmage plays per game last season. The Eagles secondary will likely improve this season as Nolan Carroll is promoted to starter (has good size and did well in pass coverage last season, albeit in just 217 snaps) and bringing in Byron Maxwell (free agent from Seattle) to be their number one cornerback. Still, Maxwell put up a negative pass coverage grade last season despite being in an elite defense, and this recommendation is about Jones’ elite talent meeting an abundance of opportunity. Note that despite being underdogs, the Falcons have the sixth highest team total on the week (26.5). With the top wide receivers all priced similarly on Fantasy Aces, it makes sense to prioritize Julio Jones if paying up at the position (something that is very easy to do given the quarterback values).
Dez Bryant (DAL) – A lot of the reasons we like Tony Romo (more expected passing plays inside and outside of the red zone) naturally apply to Dez Bryant as well. If Bryant can earn more red zone opportunities as a result of Demaro Murray’s departure, watch out. Since 2012, Bryant has scored on 44 percent of his red zone targets. That’s the highest TD conversion rate in the red zone among wide receivers, and it’s not even really close (no other receiver with at least 20 red zone targets over that span is above a 40 percent conversion rate). Given Bryant’s elite red zone prowess and Dallas’s high team total (28-28.5), it’s not surprising that our model pegs him as the most likely wide receiver to find the end zone Week 1. The only reason he lags behind Brown and Jones is lowered overall expected volume. In cash games, we’ll be prioritizing paying up for Julio Jones if possible, but
Value Plays:
Jordan Matthews (PHI) – On any sites where Matthews isn’t priced as a WR1 (including Fantasy Aces where he’s just $4,400), he’s a phenomenal value Week 1 and a core cash game play (priced more aggressively on DraftKings where he’s just a secondary value). Jeremy Maclin left the Eagles in free agency, leaving a big target void that needs to be filled (24 percent market share of targets). Matthews, assuming health, will lead the Eagles in market share of targets this season, which is a really coveted spot to be in for Fantasy in light of the Eagles high volume offensive attack (fifth most pass attempts per game last season). Matthews has a bit more scoring upside than Maclin held too as a result of his size (6’3, 212 pounds). He’d be a value at this price and in this offense in almost any matchup, but a game against the Falcons bolsters our enthusiasm even further. The Falcons finished last season dead last in defensive DVOA and are projected 29th by Football Outsiders this season. Their best asset in pass defense is cornerback Desmond Trufant, but Matthews likely misses Trufant for the majority of the game. Despite ascending to the Eagles top receiver spot, Matthews will still spend the bulk of his snaps lined up in the slot. According to Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus, Matthews ran 97 percent of his routes this preseason from the slot position. Matthews is the best way to get exposure to the highest expected scoring offense this weekend. Teammate Nelson Agholor (PHI) is a great option in tournaments. There’s risk in rookie usage week one, but the game environment is great and Agholor has skills. Here’s what our own Jake Ciely had to say about him: “Good speed and good size but not elite in either area. NFL level route running already, arguably best of all rookies. Very good at working the middle of the field but needs more consistency with his hands. Plenty of potential in the Eagles offense if used consistently.”
Davante Adams (GB) – On the majority of sites around the industry, Adams is a core cash game play Week 1. With pricing released so early for the opening week, sites were unable to take into account Jordy Nelson’s injury. Nelson was one of the most consistent DFS options last season due to a combination of factors: playing with the world’s most efficient quarterback, a high market share of targets (28 percent) and a solid market share of red zone opportunities (16 percent) for the team that averaged the second most red zone passing attempts per game. With Nelson gone, Adams will attempt to fill his shoes. Adams is a touch smaller than Nelson (two inches shorter, similar weight) and obviously doesn’t come with Nelson’s track record of success. There are some performance concerns (really poor PFF grade last season, meaningfully lower catch percentage and yards per catch than Nelson or Cobb on less opportunities). Ultimately though, the volume in an elite situation trumps efficiency concerns, especially early in the season give the team’s WR depth chart (James Jones was just signed, Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis are unknown quantities). If Adams can grab even a 20 percent market share of targets, which seems like an extremely reasonable assumption, you can set the floor at 4 catches for 50 yards with a 50/50 shot to score. That makes him a huge bargain where he’s priced among the lower end of wide receivers and grouped with guys that generally carry more risk despite possessing a lower ceiling. It’s possible to fade him in tournaments given high expected ownership and some production concerns, but ultimately we’ll still probably end up owning him around even with the market (40 percent estimate). Ironically, Fantasy Aces (our featured site for the WR position) represents the one spot where Adams is only a marginal play. At $4,200, you’re prioritizing Jordan Matthews first and then possibly spending up at your other wide receiver/flex spots. He’s definitely a fade in tournaments on that particular site, since his ownership levels may be inflated due to him being a good value on so many other sites.
Stevie Johnson (SD) – Johnson isn’t a sexy play, but he’ll get the job done, particularly as a cheap WR on full PPR sites. Johnson is an excellent route-runner who can be lined up anywhere (outside, in the slot) and should see plenty of targets while Antonio Gates is suspended. Philip Rivers is also by far the best quarterback Johnson has played with in his career. The matchup against Detroit doesn’t look positive in light of last year’s statistics. The Lions finished the year ranked third in defensive DVOA and finished in the top half of PFF’s grades in both pass rush and pass defense. However, they lost some key pieces to the defensive line, and last year’s stud cornerback Rashean Mathis is headed for some regression given his age and previous history. More specifically, newcomer Josh Wilson will be the team’s starting cornerback in the slot (where we expect Stevie Johnson to line up against him often), and he’s had a negative grade in pass coverage two straight seasons. As a result, we’re not too concerned about San Diego’s ability to move the ball at home, and neither is Vegas, pegging the Chargers with a solid team total of 24.
Cheap Play:
Leonard Hankerson (ATL) – As mentioned above in Julio Jones’ blurb, we’re not anticipating Roddy White being active. If that’s the case, a minimum priced Leonard Hankerson ($3,000 on Fantasy Aces) will step up and start. Hankerson reportedly had a great camp for the Falcons. He’s got good size (6’2, 211 pounds) and speed (4.43 40). Hankerson didn’t record a catch last season as he barely played after missing the first half of the season (ACL recovery). For his career, he has a 64.3 catch percentage (would have landed him just above league average last season) and 13.3 yards per catch (again, would have landed him just above league average) on 126 targets. If Hankerson receives a 15 percent market share of targets for a Falcons team projected to throw the ball plenty of times, he should pay off his bare minimum price tag. There’s plenty of upside beyond that as a 20-plus percent market share of targets could result in a huge profit. After all, last season Harry Douglas amassed a 29 percent market share of targets en route to a 9 catch, 116 yard outing in the second game Roddy White missed. The main issue here in cash games is uncertainty. With so many sure Week 1 values, it might make sense to eschew Hankerson’s huge profit potential for a safer, better known commodity in cash games, but at the very least he’ll be someone we target in tournaments.
Additional wide receiver notes: If you aren’t quite able to afford Julio or Dez in cash games, it’s fine to pivot to either Randall Cobb (GB) or AJ Green (CIN), who are consistently cheaper around the industry than any of the receivers we have ranked ahead of them. Demaryius Thomas (DEN) receives consistent volume inside and outside of the red zone for one of the best offenses in the league, making him a secondary cash game value and great tournament play. There’s a touch of concern over Peyton Manning’s preseason and a likely improved Baltimore secondary, which keeps a gap between Thomas and the top three receivers in our rankings. Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) is someone we’re torn on a bit internally. On the positive side, Beckham was Fantasy’s most productive WR over the season’s second half last year. Now, he’ll line up against a Dallas secondary that is without Orlando Scandrick (plus 9.4 PFF pass coverage grade in 2014) and Sterling Moore (5.2) from a year ago, leaving them with Brandon Carr (-9.3) and Morris Claiborne (-5.0) as starters in a high projected scoring game. On the negative side, Beckham is a regression candidate and his per game volume could take a hit with Victor Cruz back (Cruz is questionable Week 1, his absence would be a boost to Beckham). Realistically, any of the top 10 ranked WRs can be used in tournaments, and one guy we haven’t talked about yet is Mike Evans (TB), a monster in the red zone at 6’5, 231 who according to playerprofiler.com is in the 94th percentile in height-adjusted speed score. The Buccaneers face a Titans defense that projects to finish dead last in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Arizona wide receivers have a friendly matchup against a New Orleans Saints team that was 27th in pass DVOA last season and are without their top cornerback in Keenan Lewis. It’s difficult to figure out the market share allocations for this group week to week, making this trio of receivers better used in tournaments. On DraftKings, John Brown (ARI) is priced cheaply enough that he can be considered in cash games, and his (as well as Larry Fitzgerald’s) stock would boost if Michael Floyd is unable to play. A cash game pivot off of Stevie Johnson for a similar price is Eddie Royal (CHI). Royal is a possession receiver who could rack up a lot of catches on a Chicago team likely throwing often from behind. His expected market share of targets gets a bump with Alshon Jeffery banged up and Kevin White out. Devin Funchess (CAR) is someone we liked a lot initially heading into this week. He’s not listed with the starters though and there’s a lot of macro risk here (Panthers offense, debut game for a rookie wide out). There’s still tournament upside given Funchess’ size (should lead to red zone opportunities) and a lack of competition for targets, but he shouldn’t be used in cash games. Another excellent tournament option is Charles Johnson (MIN). As mentioned in Adrian Peterson’s blurb, this 49ers defense could potentially take a big step backwards while the Vikings offense should improve. Johnson is a combine metrics superstar that comes with a ton of upside. Last season he finished 14th in the NFL in average depth of target, and he has the size to be successful in the red zone (6’2, 215).
Tight Ends – The featured site for the tight end position is DraftDay
Top 5 Tight End Rankings
Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Greg Olsen (CAR)
Jimmy Graham (SEA)
Travis Kelce (KC)
Martellus Bennett (CHI)
Top Play:
Rob Gronkowski (NE) – If you’re playing in Thursday slate cash games, Gronkowski needs to be in your lineups. Gronkowski should see a healthy amount of targets given Brandon LaFell’s absence (on PUP) and Julian Edelman’s preseason injury concerns (although he wasn’t listed on the team’s injury report). Not only does Gronkowski command more volume than any other tight end, he’s the most efficient of all tight ends, finishing last season averaging 0.60 Fantasy points per opportunity. That was first among tight ends with 20 or more targets, and the next closest finisher was Julius Thomas at 0.51. That number is undoubtedly boosted by Gronkowski’s red zone prowess. Since 2012, he has converted 47.6 percent of his red zone opportunities into TDs. Only Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis and Kyle Rudolph have a higher success rate over that span (all on less targets). Gronkowski should certainly get plenty of red zone looks as the Patriots are tied with the Eagles for the highest implied team total of the week (29.5). By Football Outsiders DVOA, the Steelers finished last season ranked 30th in overall defense, 30th in pass defense and 28th against tight ends. With some mispriced players at the QB, RB and WR positions, it makes sense to pay up for Gronkowski at tight end, and that’s especially he case where he’s meaningfully cheaper than comparable top tier wide receivers (like on DraftKings).
Value Plays:
Greg Olsen (CAR) – DraftDay is one of the few sites that has priced Greg Olsen appropriately Week 1 (second highest priced tight end at $12,850), but he deserves that kind of tag. Olsen finished last season tied for third in targets among tight ends with 121. He accomplished that mark with a 24 percent market share of targets, and we’re anticipating his market share approaching 30 this season. With Kelvin Benjamin injured, Corey Brown and Ted Ginn are starting at wide receiver. Let that sync in. Newton is going to have to target Olsen often, especially early in the season as Devin Funchess’ role isn’t fully evolved. At a tight end position devoid of elite talents (outside of the Thursday slate), it makes sense to target the safety that comes with Olsen’s expected volume.
Delanie Walker (TEN) – While most of our cash game exposure will be to Olsen, Walker is someone we’ll mix in due to his low price tag across the industry ($9,200 on DraftDay). Our volume theme continues with Walker, the fifth most targeted tight end in all of 2014. There’s not a lot more to add here, it’s simply a safe option at the low end of the salary range, especially if rookie Marcus Mariota turns to his tight end a bit more early in the season as he gets settled. There is some additional upside in facing a Lovie Smith led defense that has historically been designed to allow a lot of targets to the TE position, specifically on seam routes.
Additional tight end notes: Jimmy Graham (SEA) is a bit overpriced on more sites as his volume is going to take a hit with the Seahawks, but he’s still tournament viable as the second ranked tight end on the weekend slate who can make an impact in the red zone. Travis Kelce (KC) is someone we’re very high on in general. The comparisons to Rob Gronkowski are legitimate, and Kelce trailed only Gronkowski and Julius Thomas in Fantasy points per target last season, despite playing in a vastly inferior offense. On most sites Jordan Cameron (MIA) is a strong tournament option as the move from Cleveland to Miami should boost his numbers. Cameron is cash viable on DraftDay, where he’s a thousand dollars cheaper than Walker. On sites with wide salary spreads, it makes sense to target an extremely cheap Richard Rodgers (GB) ($6,000 on DraftDay) in tournaments. He’s an athletic tight end entering his second season who could pick up some of the volume that needs to be filled as a result of Jordy Nelson’s injury. Additional tournament options include Tyler Eifert (CIN) (nice way to get leverage on Jeremy Hill owners in tournaments) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB) (particularly if Mike Evans is limited at all).
Defense/ST – The featured site for the Defense/ST position is FanDuel
Top 5 Defense/ST Rankings
New York Jets
Seattle Seahawks
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Top Play:
New York Jets – The Jets are our top ranked defense, although you could make a compelling case for any of the top four defenses as number one. We prefer the Jets, who are the only home defense of the three, and view them as the safest target in cash games. The Jets sit at a very affordable price tag across the industry and come with very little risk as three point favorites facing a Browns offense that has the lowest projected team total on the week. The Browns lack of talent at the QB and WR positions makes it tough to envision this play going south, especially in light of a Jets defense that is going to be much better this season. They finished last season ranked 21st in defensive DVOA, but Football Outsiders has them projected to finish second in 2015, in large part due to the additions of Leonard Williams (first round pick), Darrelle Revis (free agency) and Antonio Cromartie (free agency). The latter two address the Jets biggest weakness from a year ago – their secondary. The only slight concern here is a low amount of expected passing attempts for the Browns, which could reduce the Jets upside.
Additional Defense/ST notes: The defense we’ll own most in cash games outside of the Jets is the Miami Dolphins. They’re a bit higher risk than our other top four defenses (league average projected defensive DVOA, highest opposing team total), but they make up for that with additional upside. We expect Washington to throw a bit more than the opponents of the Jets (Browns) and Seahawks (Rams), which creates opportunities for sacks and turnovers, especially considering the Dolphins lethal pass rush (second best pass rush grade in 2014 according to PFF and they added Ndamukong Suh in free agency). Kirk Cousins has the worst turnover rate of any quarterback with at least 46 pass attempts since 2013. He’s historically inefficient at protecting the ball when you adjust for era. The Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers are cash viable defenses as well, although our primary targets will be the Jets and Dolphins at a lower cost. The Seahawks boast the league’s best defense and will face a Rams team with the second lowest team total Week 1. A lot of people are expecting the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to improve, but keep in mind they finished last season allowing the most Fantasy points per game to opposing defenses and it wasn’t particularly close. That’s good news for a Panthers defense that is seemingly low risk this week (Jaguars have the third lowest team total). The Buffalo Bills make for a nice low ownership play in large field tournaments. While they’re too risky for cash games facing an Andrew Luck led Colts team, there’s still significant upside here given this defense’s talent and playing at home against a team that will air it out a ton (creates more opportunities for big play events, such as sacks and turnovers). In a similar vein, the Philadelphia Eagles are a team whose upside will go overlooked as people simply avoid the game due to the high total. However, they’ll face plenty of pass attempts and there’s additional upside created from the strength of their Special Teams unit (first in Football Outsiders DVOA last season). Two additional tournaments options are the Green Bay Packers (similar concept to the Bills/Eagles choices; game script should be very favorable for them) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home favorites in a low total game; some defensive talent here that could have a big day against a rookie QB). The Packers are a particularly compelling option given Jay Cutler’s historical struggles against Dom Capers’ defenses. Since joining the Bears in 2009, Cutler has a 14:22 TD:INT Ratio against Green Bay in 11 games.
Kickers
Our general kicker strategy is to target kickers on high total teams who are projected to struggle in the red zone (either due to their own offense or the defense they are facing). Additionally, it’s best to completely avoid any possible inclement weather, putting an emphasis on kickers in domes or in games with medium to high temperatures and very little projected wind. Of our featured sites, only FanDuel still includes the kicker position. Here are some cheap targets on that particular site: Josh Brown (NYG), Josh Scobee (PIT) and Brandon McManus (DEN). Some more expensive options if you happen to have the room or are in tournaments are Matt Bryant (ATL), Stephen Gostkowski (NE) and Justin Tucker (BAL).
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