Welcome to Week 6 NFL DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our sixth Daily Fantasy Football Premium podcast of the 2016 NFL Season. Make sure you’re visiting all of the “Related Content” links below the podcast and reviewing our cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in week 6!
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
NFL DFS Week 6 Thursday Show Outline:
00:43 Quarterback
15:11 Running Back
32:57 Wide Receiver
53:02 Tight End
59:00 Defense/ST and Kicker
DailyRoto NFL Week 6: Thursday’s Position-by-Position Breakdown (timestamps above)
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE
In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
Week 6 NFL Podcast Cliff Notes
Quarterback
Expensive Cash Game Targets:
At the very top of the pricing spectrum, we get Cam Newton (CAR) in one of the strongest individual matchups out there for a quarterback. The Panthers face the Saints who are ranked 28th in overall defense DVOA, and they’re allowing 8.2 YPA (fifth highest). The Panthers have the highest team total this week (28 implied points) and Cam has been involved in 80 percent of the Panthers offensive touchdowns since the start of last season. Although Cam is our preference, Tom Brady (NE) (the Patriots are at home and have the second highest team total this week – approaching 28 points) and Drew Brees (NO) are strong alternatives in cash games.
Site-Specific Value QBs:
Tyrod Taylor (BUF) is priced at just $5,300 on DraftKings. While he doesn’t get a ton of passing volume, the rushing volume (at least five rushing attempts in four games this season) is healthy and creates a decent floor. The 49ers are more vulnerable against the run (ranked 23rd in rush defense DVOA) than the pass (ranked 13th in pass defense DVOA), so this is a good matchup for Tyrod to use his legs. The Bills have a team total approaching 26 implied points, and that level of expected success along with a strong matchup makes Tyrod a strong cash game play at his current price point on DraftKings. Buffalo averages 55 plays per game and we’re projecting them to cross 60 plays this week because 49ers are allowing 67 plays per game (fifth most in the NFL).
Alex Smith (KC) is a strong value on both sites, but we like him more on FanDuel where he’s just $6,800 and the 28th most expensive quarterback on the board. Smith gets a matchup against an Oakland defense that ranks very poorly in pass defense DVOA (29th), allowing 8.9 YPA (second highest) and the third most Fantasy Points to the quarterback position this season. Smith represents the best salary relief target at the position on FanDuel and only Cam Newton is a better value on that site according to our projections.
Secondary Cash/Tournament Options:
As is usually the case, the quarterback position is deep with options at all price points. Russell Wilson (SEA), Carson Palmer (ARI) and Marcus Mariota (TEN) are borderline cash game options for us and they’re all strong tournament targets. Wilson has a favorable matchup against the Falcons (ranked 26th in overall defense DVOA) and the bye week gets him on week further away from the ankle issues that were limiting him early in the season. Mariota has a shaky floor, but the Browns represent a favorable matchup (ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA) and the Titans have an unusually strong team total approaching 26 implied points. Palmer is the strongest target of the bunch, particularly on DraftKings where he’s cheap ($6,000). Palmer has struggled this season, but a matchup against the Jets should help get his deep ball going again. The Jets are allowing the second most passing plays of 40-plus yards and they’re ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. In tournaments, Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) (the Steelers have a hefty team total once again – approaching 28 implied points, and we’re projecting 67 plays for them in this game – second highest this week) is also in play as a potential high priced pivot.
Running back
Expensive Cash Game Targets:
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) is our top running back value and someone we’d prioritize in cash games this week. Bell’s workload outside and inside the red zone area makes him a safe play every week. He’s grabbed a nearly 23 percent market share of targets in his first two games (11 targets last week) and while he hasn’t scored yet, Pittsburgh is a 7.5 favorite on the road this week. It’s only a matter of time before Bell scores relative to his huge workload week in and week out, and unlike teammate Antonio Brown (up to $10,000 on DraftKings this week), Bell isn’t difficult to fit in cash. Bell gives you direct access to a Steelers offense we’re high on once again this week.
DeMarco Murray (TEN) and LeSean McCoy (BUF) are our favorite complements to Bell in cash games, so this is certainly a position we’re looking to spend on this week. Their safe workloads and favorable matchups make them great cash game spends. Murray has seen 27 and 25 carries in his last two games where he’s found himself in better game script situations, and he’s up to 21 red zone opportunities this season (fifth best mark in the league). There’s also some PPR appeal for Murray, who’s seen at least five targets in four games this season. McCoy has seen 17, 19 and 18 carries over the last three weeks and he’s also seen at least four targets in four games this season. Murray gets a matchup against Cleveland (ranked 22nd in rush defense DVOA) and McCoy gets a matchup against San Francisco (ranked 23rd in rush defense DVOA), and both of these running backs find themselves in favorable game scripts this week (Titans are favored by seven points, Bills are favored by 7.5 points).
Mid-Tier Play:
Jordan Howard (CHI) – Howard has assumed a true workhorse role even with Ka’deem Carey back last week. Howard played 95.45 percent of the snaps and handled 84.2 percent of the carries. He remains active in the passing game with at least three targets in three straight weeks and the Bears have another one of these sneaky high implied team totals (24.75) as modest home favorites. Howard’s price tag is still below the studs listed above, but he carries a similar workload and represents another fine cash game target against a Jaguars defense that ranks 29th in rush defense DVOA.
Christine Michael (SEA) is another good complement to Bell in cash games, particularly on FanDuel where the gap in pricing between Michael and Murray/McCoy is bigger. After not scoring a touchdown in his career, Michael has already scored three touchdowns in his last two games after receiving a starters workload and he’s grabbed 12 carries in the red zone (along with three red zone targets) in those games. In a favorable game script (Seahawks are 6.5 point favorites at home), a great matchup (Falcons are ranked 24th in rush defense DVOA) and another full workload (Rawls has already been ruled out this month), we don’t expect Michael to slow down.
DK Plays:
Theo Riddick (DET) and Carlos Hyde (SF) are two DK specific targets that carry price tags below $5,500. Even with the 49ers finding themselves in tough game script situations, Hyde has generated the third most red zone opportunities through five weeks (25) and he’s averaging nearly 22 touches per game. Riddick hasn’t topped 12 carries this season (11 is the most he’s received), but his main role is as a receiver out of the backfield (32 targets this season, which is the most targets at the running back position) and he’s up to eight red zone targets, which is encouraging. While these two provide some salary relief on DK, keep in mind that our emphasis at the position in cash games is to spend our funds on an expensive target like Le’Veon Bell.
Tournaments:
David Johnson (ARI) is a nice pivot from Bell in tournaments (similarly to Bell, Johnson’s workload and efficiency makes him one of the best DFS targets on a weekly basis), but Lamar Miller (HOU) is our personal favorite. He’s yet to score this season and the Texans’ offense has been awful lately (they’ve found themselves in tough game scripts lately, which makes it difficult for Miller to see that big workload we were hoping for), but now Miller gets the best matchup he’s had so far this season (Colts are ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA) and we’re hoping that the soft matchup leads to more efficiency from the offense as a whole. Todd Gurley (LA) is another intriguing tournament target as the return of Benny Cunningham may limit some of the passing game floor and decrease ownership. The Lions rank 28th in rush defense DVOA, have allowed 4.9 YPC this season, and rank 32nd in overall defensive DVOA. With all the great RB options this week, Gurley will come with almost no ownership.
Wide Receiver
Mid-Priced Cash Game Targets:
Jarvis Landry (MIA), Doug Baldwin (SEA), Manny Sanders (DEN) and Jeremy Maclin (KC) are our favorite targets from this group, with T.Y. Hilton (IND), Marvin Jones (DET) and Amari Cooper (OAK) not far behind. Landry has a 32 percent market share of targets this season and this matchup against Pittsburgh suits him well. The Steelers like to take away the deep ball with a Cover Two defense, making it easier to work underneath routes against them. In a game that the Dolphins should be throwing early and often (7.5 point underdogs at home), we think Landry deserves consideration in cash games. The same can be said for Baldwin (very efficient and he works from the slot, so he will avoid Trufant) and Maclin (great matchup against bigger Oakland corners who’ve been burned by smaller, shiftier wide receivers), but we’d take a more site specific approach with these two (Baldwin has the better price tag on DraftKings and Maclin has a friendlier price tag on FanDuel). In general, we’re looking harder at these receivers on FanDuel since it’s easier to fit them whereas on DraftKings we’re relying on cheaper values at the position.
Cheap Cash Game Value Targets:
Cameron Meredith (CHI) represents our favorite cheap value at the position around the industry. Meredith saw a huge spike in snaps, (from 37 percent in week four to 94.5 percent in week five) targets (12) and red zone opportunities (four) without Kevin White around in week five. He’s the top value in our projections on DraftKings, and his cheap price tag on both sites opens up spending at other key positions.
John Brown (ARI) has the perfect matchup vs. the Jets, a team that’s been getting beat deep quite a bit (ranked 28th against the deep ball according to football outsiders). We love his price on DraftKings ($4,500), and keep in mind that while he only saw four targets last week, his context is going to change for the better once again this week with Carson Palmer back (Drew Stanton can’t stretch the field like Palmer can; Brown saw 25 targets in his last two games with Palmer).
Sammie Coates (PIT) played below 60 percent of snaps in his breakout week but Miami represents another favorable matchup for Pittsburgh’s passing attack (ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA) and while his catch rate won’t be great (will likely lead to some duds throughout the season), his big play ability along with a good price tag on DraftKings makes him a viable cash game target this week. You can also mix him in on FanDuel where it’s difficult to find receivers you love below $6,500 outside of Cameron Meredith.
Tournament Targets:
Antonio Brown (PIT) is always a viable cash game target as he combines and exceptionally high floor with a tournament winning ceiling week in and week out. The elevated price tag makes him a difficult squeeze this week and we prefer teammate Le’veon Bell at a cheaper tag. This should skew ownership back down some, though since its Antonio Brown we doubt you’ll ever get low ownership. With an emphasis on expensive running backs this week and Cam Newton being our top value at the quarterback position with an expensive price tag, expensive WRs like Kelvin Benjamin (CAR), Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG), A.J. Green (CIN) and Allen Robinson (JAX) will likely come with lower ownership this week. Benjamin is likely a touch overpriced around the industry but draws the Saints and their pass defense is ranked 26th in DVOA (allowing the sixth most Fantasy Points to the wide receiver position this season). In this matchup, we don’t mind overpaying for Benjamin in tournaments and hope touchdown variance lands in our favor. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) are two of our favorite tournament targets. These explosive WRs get a cake matchup against a Colts secondary that’s been awful this season (ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA) and after a few duds from the Texans offense as a whole, we’re expecting low ownership here. Of the two, we prefer Fuller since his price tag isn’t accurately reflecting his upside relative to the explosive skill set and similar opportunities to Hopkins (Fuller has 40 targets and Hopkins has 42 targets). On the cheaper end of the pricing spectrum, we like Tyler Lockett (SEA) as a speculative play (should see more targets this week as he gets back to full health coming from the bye week) in tournaments.
Tight End
Cash Game Targets
Greg Olsen (CAR) is the one expensive tight end that has cash game viability, but roster construction this week will force you to go cheap at tight end. We have a narrow list of cheap targets at the position, with Jason Witten (DAL) and Charles Clay (BUF) leading the way. Witten provides a safety blanket for rookie Dak Prescott, and while Witten isn’t a sexy pick, his floor is safe (hasn’t missed a single snap this season and has a 22 percent market share of targets). Clay has a nice punt price tag on DraftKings ($2,900), and he’s seen 12 targets in his last two weeks (which is likely a result of him getting healthier). You could also mix in Zach Ertz (PHI) on either site as he remains relatively cheap ($4,000 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel). He disappointed us last week in a great matchup but saw 85 percent of the snaps after coming back from injury and we’re only expecting his workload to increase.
Tournaments:
We want to attack the mid-tier prices of Delanie Walker (TEN) (Cleveland is allowing the most Fantasy Points to the tight end position), Jimmy Graham (SEA) (his recent production isn’t a mirage; it coincides with a snap spike as well as bigger piece of the market share pie), Travis Kelce (KC) (Oakland is allowing the sixth most Fantasy Points to the tight end position) and even Martellus Bennett (NE) (gave us a glimpse last week at how lethal that two TE offense can work with Brady at the helm). It’s easier to pay up or down at the tight end position, so we’re not expecting huge ownership from these mid-tier TEs and they have more upside than Witten/Clay.
D/ST
We don’t have a clear cut target like the Minnesota Vikings last week, but our emphasis this week is to go cheap at the position with the Chicago Bears. The Bears will face the Jaguars and Blake Bortles at home, and while Chicago’s defense is around middle of the pack in DVOA, a matchup against Bortles (already up to seven turnovers this season) is too good to pass up at a cheap price in cash games. If you’re willing to pay higher funds, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans (both going up against inefficient quarterbacks/offenses) are in play as well. In tournaments, you can be a bit contrarian and instead of paying cheaper prices, paying up for the Arizona Cardinals (facing Ryan Fitzpatrick at home; he’s another inefficient quarterback on the road and Eric Decker has been ruled out for the rest of the season, which hurts the Jets offense) or even the Buffalo Bills (Colin Kaepernick hasn’t made a start since week eight of last season) makes sense in that format.
Kickers
Chandler Catanzaro (ARI), Mason Crosby (GB) and Ryan Succop (TEN) project as our top value kickers on FanDuel. Once again, we’re looking for cheap kickers on favorites with high-implied team totals and these three fit that bill. If you’re paying up at the position, Stephen Gostkowski (NE) and Steven Hauschka (SEA) represent the best targets.
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