Welcome to Week 5 NFL DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our fifth Daily Fantasy Football Premium podcast of the 2016 NFL Season. Make sure you’re visiting all of the “Related Content” links below the podcast and reviewing our cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in week 5!
WEEK 5 PROJECTIONS | DST | KICKERS | TARGETS | CARRIES | RED ZONE | HISTORICAL | SNAPS | DEFENSE
NFL DFS Week 5 Thursday Show Outline:
00:40 Hurricane Issues and Volume Versus Efficiency
06:07 Attacking the THU-MON Slate
09:20 Quarterbacks
22:01 Running Backs
39:00 Wide Receivers
59:12 Tight Ends
1:05:00 Defenses and Kickers
1:10:27 Additional Thoughts
DailyRoto NFL Week 5: Thursday’s Position-by-Position Breakdown (timestamps above)
WEEK 5 PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE
In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
Week 5 NFL Podcast Cliff Notes
General Overview:
This is a week where many of the top values in our projections are in potentially inefficient spots boosted by heavy volume. While we take a lot of time and place a lot of emphasis on projecting team plays and individual market shares, this is a fun week to play with the customizable projections in order to test how teams and individual players would react in the projections to adding or dropping plays. The risk with these inefficient volume monsters is that something curtails the volume (lower than expected team plays or individual market share) and you’re left with not enough opportunity to make up for their lack of efficiency. As a result, we’re more likely to mix in multiple cash game rosters this week than in previous weeks where many of the cash game values were in prime spots for efficiency (hefty implied team totals, favorites, etc).
Quarterback
Expensive Cash Game Targets:
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) and Tom Brady (NE) have two of the strongest individual matchups of the week. The Steelers face the Jets who rank third in rush defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA, allowing 9.7 YPA. The matchup should inflate pass play calling both in and outside the red zone and a 27.75 implied team total as 7.5 point favorites provides a favorable path for efficiency. Whether you believe in “revenge Brady” or “F-U mode” for the Patriots, you can’t argue the matchup with the Browns (29th in overall defensive DVOA, 21st against the pass) or a 28.5 implied team total, which is highest on the slate. The Patriots pass offense has benefited from improved pieces around Brady (adding Martellus Bennett, Chris Hogan, and Malcom Mitchell overwhelms the loss of Dion Lewis) and were surprisingly efficient (7.9 YPA) despite playing with backup QBs. With pass-run ratios likely to shift closer to 2015 levels, Brady couples volume with efficiency providing a nice floor and considerable upside. Cam Newton (CAR) is a potential third option in a favorable matchup with TB (27th in pass defense DVOA and allowing sixth most Fantasy points to the QB position), but we’d need clarity on his health as he’s in the concussion protocol.
Site-Specific Value QBs:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) is priced at just $5,100 on DraftKings. The Steelers are more vulnerable through the air (eighth in rush defense DVOA, 17th in pass defense DVOA) and as a result teams have opted to pass on 69.5 percent of plays against the Steelers (next highest is 66.4 percent). The volume of expected pass attempts for Fitzpatrick (we’re projecting 41) trumps potentially weak efficiency in our projections. There is risk here as Fitzpatrick has a very shaky history in negative game scripts (career 6.3 YPA in games he’s lost by seven or more, 7.6 YPA in all others) but the price and volume overwhelm that risk in projections. In addition, he’ll likely be without one of the most efficient WRs in the last five years in Eric Decker. He’s not a QB we’d go “all-in” on in cash games, but someone we’re mixing in on DraftKings.
Brian Hoyer (CHI) is just $6,000 on FanDuel which provides a soft threshold for delivering value. Hoyer is another road underdog QB, which typically we’d like to avoid in cash games, but this is a price play where most of the other value QBs are $1,000 or more expensive than Hoyer. He’s topped 300 yards and thrown for two touchdowns in each of his first two starts and faces a Colts defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Derek Anderson (CAR) would represent another potential cheap FanDuel play if Cam Newton isn’t able to go.
Secondary Cash/Tournament Options:
The quarterback position is deep with options. As is usually the case, it’s a position with a narrower range of outcomes so projections tend to bunch together. Derek Carr (OAK) is the one mid-tier option that is borderline cash viable for us and represents a strong tournament target. San Diego is likely without top CB Jason Verrett, Brandon Flowers also missed practice on Wednesday, and the Raiders have a 26.75 implied total as home favorites. Ryan Tannehill (MIA) is another inefficient/high volume QB option that is a home favorite, albeit with a softer implied team total (23.5). We prefer exposure to Tannehill in tournaments. Jameis Winston (TB) is our last mid-priced GPP target with a combination of inefficient/high volume with a star WR that can carry a performance. Carolina ranks 19th in pass defense DVOA and a lack of game total will likely suppress ownership on the underdogs. If looking for high priced pivots from Big Ben/Brady in tournaments, Aaron Rodgers (GB) and Andrew Luck (IND) fit the bill as home favorites with hefty implied totals.
Runningback
Expensive Cash Game Targets:
David Johnson (ARZ) and Le’veon Bell (PIT) are the cream of the crop at the running back position. They combine efficiency in all facets of the game along with hefty volume and significant red zone roles. They are game script dependent, though both teams are favorites this week, and they’re rarely a bad play. Johnson should get a slight workload bump with a backup QB at the helm and the 49ers increase opposing plays (67.25 opponent plays per game is third highest in the league). If playing Thursday slates in cash games, we’d like to have some exposure to Johnson.
Melvin Gordon (SD) – Gordon’s volume has been incredible (19.7 carries, 5.7 targets, and 6.3 red zone opportunities per game over the last three games). Even with projected inefficiency, it’s difficult to put a bad projection on a player getting that kind of immense volume. It feels dirty to consider Gordon in the same tier as Johnson and Bell because he’s an inferior player, but the volume is elevating him. The Raiders have allowed 5.1 YPC and rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. This is a matchup that theoretically should ease some of the inefficiency concerns with Gordon which coupled with all the volume makes him a viable cash game spend.
Value Cash Game Targets:
Jerick McKinnon (MIN), Jordan Howard (CHI), and DeAndre Washington (OAK) are the three options we’re primarily targeting for salary relief in cash games. Jordan Howard’s price tag is a little heftier than pure salary relief but the matchup with IND run defense (26th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in overall DVOA) and the incredible volume last week (91 percent of snaps, 79 percent of carries, 50 percent of red zone opportunities, and 11 percent of targets) reminds us of a poor man’s Melvin Gordon workload. Howard’s been efficient with his touches early which has our projections believing he’s a strong value even with the recent price hike. DeAndre Washington is in a time-share with Jalen Richard that is getting enhanced by Latavius Murray’s likely absence this week. Washington has been extremely efficient (6.4 YPC, 6.2 YPT) and faces a Chargers run defense that ranks 21st in rush DVOA. Volume is a question with a pass-heavy offense and a time-share with Richard and potentially Olawale, but the cheap price tag (especially on FanDuel – $4,700) really opens up spending. If Washington happens to get big volume, he becomes the best value on the slate. Jerick McKinnon is the last cash game target and he’s the one option that is priced affordably on both sites. Houston ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and McKinnon’s seen a steady growth in market share of carries as he’s separating a bit from Asiata. The only concern with McKinnon is the potential goal line vultures of Asiata but it was nice to see McKinnon get a goal line rush that he converted last week into a score. The Vikings are solid home favorites (-6) and the Texans offense figures to struggle creating drives which brings lots of volume for McKinnon.
Tournament Targets:
DeMarco Murray (TEN) continues to check all the boxes for a workhorse running back, but the Titans perpetual negative game scripts and low implied team totals coupled with Murray’s price hike makes him a secondary cash game or primary tournament target. Miami is allowing the most rush attempts per game (34.75) but rank 12th in rush defense DVOA. With the price tag rising closer to Bell and Johnson, Murray makes for a nice high priced pivot in tournaments. C.J. Anderson (DEN) and Devonta Freeman (ATL) are opposing running backs with upside in their individual matchups. Anderson gets a Falcons rush defense that ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA. The Broncos have another high implied total (26.25) and Anderson as a home favorite sets up well for volume and scoring opportunities. Freeman’s volume should increase with Tevin Coleman’s sickle cell condition likely limiting his workload in altitude. The Broncos have struggled against the run (23rd in rush DVOA) and their strength in the secondary could funnel receptions to the RB. Terrance West (BAL) and LeGarrette Blount (NE) are touchdown dependent options with favorable matchups (CLE – 28th, WAS – 32nd in rush DVOA). The lack of receiving skills lowers the floor making them harder cash game targets, but double digit TD potential with efficiency rushing brings big tournament upside.
Wide Receiver
Expensive Cash Game Targets:
Antonio Brown – The Jets secondary ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and he’s Antonio Brown. He’s very expensive and on a week with tons of options it’s viable to forego him, but the floor and upside are unmatched at the position.
High/Mid-Priced Cash Game Targets:
Brandon Marshall (NYJ), Jarvis Landry (MIA), Emmanuel Sanders (DEN), T.Y. Hilton (IND), and Jordy Nelson (GB) are our favorite targets from this group. The first four options are all volume monsters. Marshall saw 29 percent of targets last week in Decker’s absence and the Jets project for heavy passing volume as a road underdog. We’re less concerned about WR underdogs as their scoring mostly comes from yards and catches as opposed to touchdowns, so they benefit from the volume even if it comes with a lack of efficiency. Emmanuel Sanders and Jarvis Landry are the two leading receivers in market share both hovering around 34 percent of team targets. Their price tags remain friendly for all that volume. T.Y. Hilton has historically been stronger at home on the turf in INDY, averaging two more PPR points per game. With Moncrief’s injury, he’s absorbed 28 percent of the targets since Week 3 and earned double digit targets in every game this season. The Bears defense has outplayed their personnel but the Colts have a 26 implied team total and Hilton represents a huge market share of their passing offense. Jordy Nelson has scored in every game, has at least two red zone targets in every game, and has a 29 percent market share of targets. The Packers have another hefty implied total at home (27.75) and face a Giants funnel defense (fifth in rush defense DVOA, 23rd against the pass).
Cheap Cash Game Value Targets:
Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) and Tyrell Williams (SD) represent our favorite sources of salary relief at the WR position. Enunwa has earned 18 targets over the last two games with Eric Decker injured and like Marshall should benefit from an anticipated hefty volume of pass attempts for the Jets. Tyrell Williams has surpassed Travis Benjamin as the highest targeted Chargers WR (17 targets last two weeks) and he’s received at least two red zone looks in three straight games. The Raiders secondary ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Williams is the Chargers #1 WR, replacing Keenan Allen’s role, and he’s not yet priced like it.
Tournament Targets:
There are always loads of tournament targets at the WR position and this week more than the previous few weeks, we’d emphasize using a WR’s hefty upside in flex spots in tournaments on DraftKings. The running back depth and upside is inferior to the WR position this week. On the high-end of the pricing spectrum, we love Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) and A.J. Green (CIN) as tournament targets. The Packers (22nd in pass defense DVOA) and Cowboys (24th) provide good matchups and ownership consolidating on Antonio Brown should leave both with softer ownership numbers. We’re monitoring the buzz on Beckham this week as he resembles Julio Jones breakout last week. If ODB gets all the attention, Green will represent the strong pivot. A step down in price brings us options like Mike Evans (TB), Kelvin Benjamin (CAR), Alshon Jeffery (CHI), Jordan Matthews (PHI), and Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (OAK) who all have favorable matchups for efficiency but may get a bit lost in the shuffle with so many great WR plays this week. Evans gets the secondary Julio torched last week. Benjamin gets a Bucs secondary that has struggled all season. Jeffery gets a potential volume bump with Kevin White sidelined and Cooper/Crabtree benefit from injuries in the Chargers secondary. On the cheaper side of things, Devante Parker (MIA) and Desean Jackson (WAS) get favorable individual CB matchups with Perish Cox and Shareece Wright who have both been getting burned weekly. The floors with the inconsistent volume makes them weaker cash game plays, but exceptional tournament targets due to big play and scoring potential. On the really cheap side of things, Sammie Coates (PIT) and Eddie Royal (CHI) are solid tournament targets. Royal won’t play in two WR sets so the snaps are limited but he’s been a first read for Hoyer a ton and now has one less option with Kevin White to compete with for targets. We’re monitoring Royal’s buzz as the cheap tag and potential volume make him a good tournament play but like Crowder/Beasley last week the lack of two WR set snaps can limit the upside a bit. Coates is our favorite cheap tournament target as potential scoring leverage on Antonio Brown but more likely alongside Brown in a three-man Steelers stack. Coates lives off big plays, has seen an increasing snap and market share, and faces a defense that has been consistently torched by the big play.
Tight End
Cash Game Targets:
This is a position we’re really emphasizing saving funds at in cash games and as a result our list of targets is relatively narrow. Zach Ertz (PHI) and Zach Miller (CHI) lead the way with reasonable price tags. Ertz saw a nearly 20 percent market share in Week 1 which carried over a late season burst in opportunity in 2015 but then got hurt and missed the last two games. Trey Burton stepped in and saw seven and six targets in those two games. The Lions have allowed six touchdowns to TEs in four games and at least one in every game. Miller should get a market share bump with Kevin White out. The floor with Miller seems lower as he just got three targets last week but the Colts rank 32nd in DVOA against the TE position and if Vontae Davis locks on Alshon, Miller figures to be the primary read in many two WR sets. Hunter Henry (SD) would join the group as our third cash game value TE but we need confirmation Antonio Gates is out. Gates was limited in practice on Wednesday. Henry’s been everything you wanted in a value TE since Gates went down and Oakland ranks 21st in DVOA against the TE.
Tournament Targets:
This is the place to get your expensive TE exposure. Greg Olsen (CAR) is our favorite target with or without Cam Newton. Tampa Bay has been solid against the TE (sixth in DVOA) but Olsen’s ownership and upside trumps the matchup as one of the few TEs with multiple touchdown upside. Rob Gronkowski (NE) got up to 68 percent of snaps last week and now gets Tom Brady back. Ownership should remain low because projections have to project a split of playing time and Gronkowski was asked to block a lot last week. This is a good spot to try and get in front of the crowd and a way to stack with Tom Brady. On the cheap side, Cameron Brate (TB) and Kyle Rudolph (MIN) are viable cheap tournament targets. Rudolph’s been commanding an incredible market share but faces the Texans #1 defense against TEs in DVOA. Brate gets a softer matchup (27th ranked CAR) and should continue to carry softer ownership with less content focused on the Monday Night game. Ryan Griffin (HOU) is a guaranteed low-owned option that could see 15-20 percent market share. The Vikings are an awful matchup but injuries have opened up opportunity for Griffin and he’ll carry sub-1 percent ownership.
D/ST
Minnesota is very clearly our top defensive target on this slate and come with a reasonable price tag on both sites. Especially on FanDuel, where the pricing spectrum is relatively tight, the Vikings make the most sense in cash games. On DraftKings, the pricing spectrum is a little wider which opens up options like Miami, Oakland, Tennessee, or Chicago as viable cheap pivots. In tournaments, we like taking shots against inefficient offensive passing attacks so Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and New England are all strong contenders. New England is cheap enough to earn cash game consideration on FanDuel.
Kickers:
Mike Nugent (CIN), Brandon McManus (DEN), Justin Tucker (BAL), and Adam Vinatieri (IND) project as our top value kickers on FanDuel. In general, we’re looking for cheap kickers on favorites with hefty implied team totals. Nugent best fits the mold but McManus and Vinatieri are also solid alternatives.
UPDATE: We mistakenly were referencing the Week 4 salaries. Nugent still remains a viable cheap play but is at $4,600. Mason Crosby (GB) should be added to the list of cheap kickers to use as he’s minimum priced.
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