Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 5 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
Short slate note: Thursday’s are often a day of rest for teams and a short slate, which increases variance. We recommend either resting yourself or playing a greatly reduced portion of your bankroll on slates like today.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – While it’s not the shortest of slates, it’s a rather ugly five-game slate tonight that lacks strong mid-tier value play options. As a result, it’s a good idea in cash games to squeeze in tonight’s likely top-all around scorer who has a strong probability of returning value, despite the expensive price tag. At $10,400 on DraftKings, we want Westbrook to score around 50 DraftKings points to hit value. He’s done so four of five contests this season, averaging 57 DraftKings points. On DraftKings, some of the studs are simply underpriced early in the year despite a high price tag. The prices are too low and the scoring system favors high volume players. Westbrook is the highest volume player of them all – posting an absurd 35.7 usage rate (highest in the NBA) and 53.6 assist rate (somehow higher than last season’s, which we thought was inflated by games without Kevin Durant). In a road game that’s expected to be competitive (no spread), Westbrook is a core cash game option.
Next in line:
Damian Lillard (POR) – Lillard is another heavily involved offensive player, posting an usage rate of 33.2 (26.9 last season) and assist rate of 35.2 (29.0 last season). His minutes are also up slightly. Lillard is going to have a monster statistical season in an offense that relies on him after losing Aldridge, Batum, and Matthews in the offseason. The issue here is roster construction. In cash games, it’s very difficult to fit in both Lillard and Westbrook. As a result, it’s best to choose Westbrook (especially with Lillard facing a good defensive team in Memphis) for your cash game lineups, but consider building around Lillard on some of your tournament teams, as he’ll carry a lower ownership percentage.
Additional point guard notes: It’s best to complement Westbrook with a mid-priced point guard on most sites. It would seem that there would be less options on a short slate. However, what ends up happening in cases like tonight is that the lack of one or two strong, industry-wide values above the rest, forces you to consider multiple options who project for similar EV. There are a plethora of those mid-tier point guard options tonight that are difficult to distinguish. Our favorites are Deron Williams (DAL) (best option on DraftKings due to price), Goran Dragic (MIA) (fair price and will face an up tempo, poor defensive team in Minnesota) and Mike Conley (SAC) (best option on FanDuel due to price; increase in value if Marc Gasol is out). Additional secondary point guards are Ricky Rubio (MIN) and Kemba Walker (CHA). They probably have more upside for tournaments, but in cash games the EV is similar and being as such, we’d rather save a little bit of money. It’s also feasible to simply punt your second guard spot altogether, and JJ Barea (DAL) is the best candidate for that. He doesn’t carry profit potential, but you could break even on his $3,600 salary while allowing yourself to squeeze in multiple high dollar players.
Shooting Guard – Our featured site for the shooting guard position is FanDuel
Top Play: Jimmy Butler (CHI) – The safest shooting guard option in terms of floor playing in the likely fastest paced and highest scoring environment. If you can fit Butler in, he’s our preferred target in cash games, but pricing is a challenge with the emphasis on studs and there are viable alternatives a bit cheaper.
Value Plays:
Dwyane Wade (MIA) – We view Butler and Wade as having similar expected value, but prefer Wade in cash game lineup construction. Like with the second point guard spot, wherever value is similar we’ll take the savings in an effort to make sure Russell Westbrook can be fit into lineups. The Timberwolves are an up tempo team (10th in pace last season, ninth so far this season), which creates extra possessions and more opportunities for Fantasy points (especially for a player with a high usage rate like Wade’s 33.4 mark). The extra volume they create for Wade should come with increased efficiency as well. Minnesota finished below average in defensive efficiency against shooting guards last season and dead last as a team. We expect them to be better this year (and they have thus far) but still view this as a plus matchup overall. Note that Wade has been battling migraines. He’s expected to play, but keep your eye on our alerts tonight.
Rodney Hood (UTA) – Hood is a cheap option we feel comfortable with, whether it’s on FanDuel at SG or at SF on other sites. He’s very important on FanDuel, where you need to either complement Wade with a cheap shooting guard or simply go cheap in both spots. As we touched on yesterday, Hood is a chucker. He’s hoisted double-digit shot attempts in each game this season and is averaging a whopping 18.0 field goal attempts (FGA) per 36-minutes, including 4.8 three-pointers. Both the usage and assist rates for Hood are up dramatically from last season, a carryover from the tail end of last season. That usage makes him very usable on a short slate all by itself, but the matchup is a plus, too. Denver runs at an above average tempo (third fastest last year, slightly below average this year), and they currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards, where Hood has spent about 3/4ths of his minutes.
Additional shooting guard notes: Courtney Lee (MEM) is very boring, but may be a necessary evil if you really need to save at the position. He’s cheap on FanDuel and in a favorable spot (Portland is above average in pace and has struggled against shooting guards early on this year). A similar type option on DraftKings is Wes Matthews (DAL). If you can afford a bit more than the cheap options like Lee/Matthews, Alex Burks (UTA) carries more upside. Jeremy Lamb (CHA) is tournament viable across the industry. He’s off to a hot start off the bench for Charlotte, but it’s very difficult to project if his minutes will land on the correct side of 20 or not. Dion Waiters (OKC) is a punt option on DraftKings.
Small Forward – Our featured site for the small forward position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Kevin Durant (OKC) – As mentioned in Westbrook’s blurb, the high end studs on DraftKings are simply mis-priced. Kevin Durant at $9,200 is another example of this. At that salary, Durant’s salary expectation is 44.8 DraftKings points; he’s averaging 45.3. Priced to hit value on a short slate, we encourage finding a way to fit in both Oklahoma City Thunder superstars, even if it means punting a couple of spots.
Additional small forward notes: Note that Rodney Hood (UTA), written up with the shooting guards, is small forward eligible on DraftKings. He’s a strong value there, even if you’re using him in the F flex spot. Durant and Hood are the two best values at the position on DraftKings. A secondary value is Danilo Gallinari (DEN), but he’s in a difficult matchup against a strong defensive team in Utah. Ideally, we’d like to avoid Gallinari unless Denver is thin again, which would ensure a large minutes total (35 last game and rebounding numbers were up with two front court players out). On FanDuel, it’s a bit easier to attack the position going the mid-tier route and eschewing Durant. The best options to do that with are Nikola Mirotic (CHI) and Nicolas Batum (CHA). Gordon Hayward (UTA) is a tournament option around the industry, but even at a lower price point than we saw him at at most times last season, he can’t be trusted in cash games (the uptick in usage for Hood and Favors has negatively impacted Hayward). Maurice Harkless (POR) is another potential punt play. The upside is limited as Harkless has never been a great per minute producer (0.68 DraftKings points per minute in his career) and the matchup with Memphis weakens his best skill, but on a night where the best values are the best players, Harkless is viable as a small forward punt if Meyers Leonard sits. Harkless played 29 minutes last night against a similarly big Utah team.
Power Forward – Our featured site for the power forward position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Derrick Favors (UTA) – Favors played last night despite an illness that forced him to miss shootaround and had him pegged as questionable. We’d assume if he was able to give it a go last night, he’ll be fine to play tonight. There is some risk on the second night of a back to back for a player getting over being sick, but the limited slate may make that a necessary risk to take. In his age 24 season, Favors is seeing an usage bump for the second consecutive season. Here are his usage rates the past three years (including this season’s thus far): 20.8/23.8/26.2. That healthy usage rate has led to a 37.4 FanDuel point per game average over the team’s first four contests, which is just above Favors’ value threshold created by his $8,000 salary. It’s obviously a small sample size, but it’s always nice to get a player priced to hit value or close to it, especially when the matchup is favorable. Denver has been solid at defending front court players this season, but we view that as primarily the result of a small sample. Last year, Denver finished last season ranked 29th in defensive efficiency against power forwards. Couple that with a bump in expected possessions for Favors (slow paced Utah offense facing up tempo Denver team), and Favors is a priority tonight, especially on teams where you are unable to fit in Kevin Durant alongside Westbrook.
Mid-Tier Plays: The trio of Zach Randolph (MEM), Kenneth Faried (DEN), and Serge Ibaka (OKC) are clustered together in terms of expected value. Randolph is the guy to own if Marc Gasol is out, as his usage and rebounding rates would see an uptick with the minutes stabilized. Similarly, we prefer Kenneth Faried if the Denver front court is once again thin (Lauvergne and Jokic missed last game and are questionable for tonight); Faried was forced to play 40 minutes last game and that volume would trump a negative matchup. If the injury news doesn’t go the way of Randolph or Faried, Ibaka is probably the best combination of floor and upside. Don’t be too picky here, though. You can drop off to the cheap plays listed below or take the cheapest of the trio as the power forward position shouldn’t dictate the rest of your roster tonight.
Punt Plays: On FanDuel, it’s a bit less necessary to punt the power forward spot (unless you end up paying for both Westbrook and Durant). If you do so, though, there are three players we are eyeing up. By far the best source of salary cap relief at any position on any site is going to be Brandan Wright (MEM) if Marc Gasol is out. Wright averaged a solid .87 FanDuel points per minute last season. At that rate, he’ll hit value on average in 24-25 minutes against a neutral opponent. He played 28 minutes last game with Gasol leaving hurt (18 minutes played). Wright has the ability to contribute in PTS-REB-BLK with a starting role. Memphis has only been using three bigs in their rotation, so we’d expect upper 20s minutes again if Gasol is out, with upside into the 30s. Wright would be particularly useful on DraftKings where he possesses a bare minimum salary ($3,000). Another option in that same game and also contingent upon someone not playing is Ed Davis (POR). He should see more run if Meyers Leonard (ankle injury) is unable to play. He’s a bit more expensive than Wright, but was a more efficient player last season (.95 FanDuel points per minute). One cap relief option whose value isn’t contingent on a teammate being out is Nemanja Bjelica (MIN). His minutes have climbed each game this year (23/26/31), giving him a solid floor at such a low price point. We prefer Wright/Davis upside if the injury news goes their way, but if it doesn’t Bjelica would be the cap relief option to use of the three. On FanDuel he’s small forward eligible and near minimum price. If going with Kevin Durant at one of your small forward spots there (rather than a mid-tier approach), Bjelica is a cheap complement that could make it work.
Additional power forward notes: Pau Gasol (CHI) is tournament viable, but we don’t see much need to force him in at a similar price to Favors and a more expensive price than Randolph/Faried/Ibaka.
Center - Our featured site for the center position is DraftKings
Upside Plays: On a short slate with a lot of “meh” mid-tier options, it makes sense to target a couple of options, who if they “hit”, have the ability to return a sizable profit. On this particular site Hassan Whiteside (MIA) (18 percent premium) Rudy Gobert (UTA) (12 percent), and Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) (seven percent) are all within a 20 percent premium above the average cost of a roster spot and have that ability. At these price points, our priority order would be Gobert (should dominate a thin Denver team inside and benefit from the tempo Denver plays at), followed by Whiteside (will also benefit from an up tempo opponent), and then Towns (elite upside, but we’re a bit more confident in Gobert/Whiteside). All three can be used, though, depending on what you can afford, and it’s okay to go with the cheapest of the bunch (Towns), especially on sites like FanDuel where he provides a more meaningful discount to Gobert/Whiteside. On DraftKings, you can utilize one of these centers in your utility spot (for example, if Marc Gasol is active, the upside here is higher with a better chance of hitting than Zach Randolph or someone of that caliber).
Additional center notes: Brandan Wright (MEM) (mentioned in the power forward section), is center eligible on some sites. Mason Plumlee (POR) is tournament viable if teammate Meyers Leonard is out (coming off a dominant performance last time out with Leonard leaving early, despite what was a very difficult matchup against Utah). If both teammate Meyers Leonard and opposing center Marc Gasol are out, Plumlee’s stock would really rise, making him cash viable and a better option than Wright where both are center eligible and close in price.
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