Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 24 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Stephen Curry (GS) projects as the top option at the position but pegging his minutes in a game the Warriors are favored by 17 is difficult. If we scale him back to 28-30 minutes, he has a low probability of hitting value thresholds even in a plus matchup. We’re off Curry, and most of the Warriors, in cash games. There is some tournament appeal here, but we’re more likely to emphasize the next group of point guards.
Next in line:
Damian Lillard (POR)/John Wall (WAS) – You could also include Chris Paul (LAC) in this grouping, but we’re a bit more comfortable with the upside of Lillard and Wall and they’re all priced similarly. In addition, we’re more likely to use a Clippers frontcourt player, so it’s natural to diversify some game exposure in cash games and emphasize the other two point guards in this tier. Lillard is the most stable of this group. He’s playing a Bulls defense that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency against point guards and Lillard’s elevated usage (31.8) and minutes (37.5) create a really high floor. Only twice this season has Lillard been held under 35 FanDuel points. His value thresholds are hovering around 42-44 Fantasy points and he’s averaging just under that (40.7 FanDuel points per game) on the season. Wall has had a very different start to the season than Lillard. His minutes are down considerably from last season (32.7 vs. 35.7 per game) and his rebound rates (career 6.9 percent, this season 5.6 percent) have taken a substantial hit. His usage rates and assist rates remain static, but the dip in playing time and rebounds along with a slight slow start shooting has recently impacted his production. Although Wall has struggled of late (22.9 FanDuel points in two of last four games), those two games represent the only two he’s been held under 34.5 FanDuel points per game all season. The matchup with Indiana is a challenge. They rank fifth in defensive efficiency against point guards and third in overall defensive efficiency. But, the price drop helps mitigate some of the risk. Wall’s value thresholds are now in the 40-41 Fantasy point range, which Wall averaged last season. The price tag is better on DraftKings ($8,400) than FanDuel ($8,800) but anywhere you’ve seen a steep decline in Wall’s price tag is a place he earns consideration.
Value Play:
Isaiah Thomas (BOS) – Thomas has settled into a comfortable price range that offers little in the way of significant return on investment, but leaves him with a high probability of approaching his value thresholds. With Marcus Smart injured, there are no concerns on Thomas’ minutes. As long as the game is competitive, he’s playing 33-36 minutes. For his career, Thomas has hovered around the 0.90-0.95 FanDuel point per minute mark and this season he’s improved his efficiency by upping his usage rate and assist rate in a point guard friendly offense. Now averaging 1.11 FanDuel points per minute, Thomas has a strong chance at exceeding 35 FanDuel points each and every night. The matchup with Atlanta is largely neutral. They rank middle of the pack in defensive efficiency against point guards, overall defensive efficiency, and pace. The consistency is really the reason we’re targeting Thomas. He’s hit over 30 FanDuel points in 10 of 13 games this season and with value thresholds hovering around 34-37 Fantasy points, he’s one of the safer options to approach them.
Additional point guard notes: Mike Conley (MEM) is a viable point guard value to target if Zach Randolph is ruled out again. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Conley has posted a 26 percent usage rate and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute compared to a 24 percent usage rate and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute with Randolph on the floor. Dallas has been solid against point guards early on (ninth in defensive efficiency) as they’ve outperformed our expectations defensively across the board. Still, the price tag on Conley isn’t accounting for the volume bump without Randolph around so if Z-Bo is ruled out, Conley is a solid value play. D’Angelo Russell (LAL) and Jordan Clarkson (LAL) are cheap enough to consider as decent tournament targets. Russell’s cheap enough on DraftKings to earn cash consideration and the same can be said of Clarkson just due to SG eligibility, but both are players we’d prefer to avoid in cash games. We like Russell a bit more than Clarkson as Russell’s recent bump in minutes is not accounted for in his price tag. Deron Williams (DAL) and Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) are other price sensitive tournament targets in difficult matchups.
Shooting Guard – Our featured site for the shooting guard position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Jimmy Butler (CHI) – Butler, in many ways, is the shooting guard version of Isaiah Thomas. The price point isn’t particularly compelling, but the security and consistency of his production earns cash game consideration. Butler has bene held under 30 FanDuel points just twice all season. He faces a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards and 20th in overall defensive efficiency. There may be some concerns that Butler’s role is impacted by Derrick Rose but since 2014, Butler has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Rose on the floor and one DraftKings point per minute with Rose off the floor. Rose’s presence is a slight hit to his value, but not a substantial hit. Butler isn’t our favorite high end option to target this evening but the lack of depth at shooting guard makes him a viable target in cash games.
Value Play:
Avery Bradley (BOS) – Bradley’s price point is rising aggressively and it’s always difficult to justify calling a player that has seen his salary rise by 20 percent a “value”. Shooting guard lacks viable industry wide values, so we’re left recommending Bradley in a situation where we wish he was $500 cheaper across the industry. Atlanta ranks 19th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards and they’re allowing 20.4 field goal attempts per game to shooting guards (tied for third most in the league). A combination of efficiency and volume hopefully overwhelms the jump in price tag that is associated with a hot shooting streak (career .436 field goal percentage, shooting .460 this season). The value thresholds are hovering right around 30 Fantasy points on most sites and Bradley is averaging just around 25 Fantasy points per game. It’s not an ideal situation. With Marcus Smart’s injury, Bradley should approach 33-36 minutes. For his career, Bradley has averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute, but this year he’s up to 0.91 thanks to the hot shooting. If we assume he’s closer to 0.75 DraftKings points per minute, we need 40 minutes to approach his value threshold. If he stays hot shooting, he should get there in his 33-36 minutes. This isn’t a play we love, but that option simply doesn’t exist at the shooting guard position.
Additional shooting guard notes: Kyle Korver (ATL) and Wes Matthews (DAL) are the two cheap options to consider at shooting guard. The floor is very low with both players, but the price tags are low enough to provide a decent chance of return on investment. In addition, they come with cheap price tags that mitigates some of the risk of under-performance. C.J. McCollum (POR) is priced right around the industry. The matchup with the Bulls is not good. Chicago ranks third in defensive efficiency against shooting guards and they have Jimmy Butler to deploy on McCollum if they choose (we think they’ll start with Snell on McCollum and Butler on Aminu). On FanDuel, where you need two shooting guards, the consistency of volume earns him consideration. Will Barton (DEN) has seen his price bump around the industry through exceptionally efficiency shooting. He’s also bumped his rebounding rate with the Nuggets second unit. On FanDuel, the price is still reasonable ($5,400) that he earns consideration in cash games, but it’s uncomfortable relying on a player to deliver 26-27 Fantasy points in just 26.7 minutes per game. Theoretically, he should earn more playing time in small ball units due to the Nuggets injuries, but the Clippers are a team that is difficult to play small against. Klay Thompson’s (GS) depressed price tag earns him consideration in a favorable matchup against the Lakers but once again the floor is impacted by a low minutes expectation due to blowout risk. Bradley Beal (WAS) is a fine tournament target. The price is slightly depressed over expectation but the matchup with Indiana (fourth in defensive efficiency) isn’t great and a shoulder issue for a shooter makes us concerned about the impact on mechanics. He’s a fine tournament target, but we’re concerned about the floor in cash games.
Small Forward – Our featured site for the small forward position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Paul George (IND) – George has been exceptional this season. He’s posting his greatest shooting rates (.571 true shooting percentage) at the highest usage rate (31.1 percent) he’s ever shouldered. His assist and rebound rates are way up as well. The matchup with Washington is a good one for efficiency. The Wizards rank 30th against small forwards and 23rd against power forwards. The Wizards have challenges matching up with George. Otto Porter is most likely to draw the assignment but then they have to hide Kris Humphries somewhere or promote Jared Dudley into the starting lineup. The matchup is strong for George but identifying his baseline is a challenge with career best shooting accompanying career high usage. We’re more comfortable deploying George on FanDuel ($9,500) where he’s a bit less expensive and you need two small forwards rather than DraftKings ($9,900) but his advantage over a weak position makes him cash viable across the industry. We like other high end players more for their value and projection but George earns some consideration due to positional scarcity. Our hope is that more value at small forward opens through injuries and we’re able to spend at other positions on players we’re more confident are discounted.
Additional small forward notes: Small forward values are really different across the industry, so it’s easier to tackle in a notes format. Jeff Green (MEM) and Matt Barnes (MEM) are two players we’re eying if Zach Randolph is unable to go this evening. Green has benefited from his shift into the starting lineup and he represents the Grizzlies best option to defend Dirk Nowitzki, so we’re confident the minutes will be there. The usage bump without Randolph (23.2 without Randolph, 19 with Randolph since 2013) makes us more comfortable using him despite Green’s recent price hike. Barnes has played 30 or more minutes the last two games with Randolph out and would likely fill that role again. He’s a limited Fantasy producer but a minimum price tag would give him a good chance at delivering a positive return on investment at a position that lacks great values. Otto Porter (WAS) and Al Farouq Aminu (POR) are the more expensive solid options that provide little upside on their price tags but high enough floors to consider in cash games. They’re essentially the Avery Bradley of the small forward position though with a little less room for return on investment. Jae Crowder (BOS) is cheap enough to consider a strong option on FanDuel ($5,100) but hard to justify on most other sites. Crowder’s a volatile performer because much of his production is coming from steals (2.6 per game) but at $5,100 he has a reasonable value threshold of 25 FanDuel points. He’s averaging 24 per game on the season. Harrison Barnes (GS) has the same blowout concerns many of the other Warriors do, but his substitution pattern often leaves him with minutes with the reserves. He might be the least vulnerable Warrior to the blowout. Unfortunately, the price tag is up a bit after a few strong shooting performances. If you wanted exposure to the Warriors offense, Barnes or Klay Thompson are the two most viable cash game targets due, mostly, to positional scarcity.
Power Forward – Our featured site for the power forward position is DraftKings
Top Plays:
Blake Griffin (LAC) – Griffin is the expensive player we’re most confident in out-performing his price tag on Tuesday night. Griffin faces a Denver frontcourt that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency against power forwards and 25th in overall defensive efficiency. They’ll be without Kenneth Faried, Joffrey Lauvergne, and Jusuf Nurkic which will force Darrell Arthur into the starting lineup. Arthur is a pretty good defender but he’s not particularly mobile and has always posted below average rebounding rates in his career. Griffin’s minutes are down slightly this season as a better bench unit has eased some of the playing time but he’s been extended in competitive games of late (29, 34, 37, 42 last four games – had foul trouble in the 29 minute game). This matchup should limit foul trouble as Arthur is mostly a spot up shooter. Despite a slight reduction in minutes, Griffin’s usage rate, rebounding rate, and assist rate are all higher than last season. With a value threshold around 41-44 and a minute expectation around 34-36, we’re looking at 1.17-1.29 Fantasy points per minute from Griffin. He’s averaging 1.29 (DraftKings) and 1.24 (FanDuel) points per minute this season.
Value Play:
Darrell Arthur (DEN) – Arthur stepped into the starting role last game and churned out 33 DraftKings points thanks to 9-12 shooting against the Warriors. We’d imagine that game represents close to Arthur’s ceiling but the good news is we don’t need 33 DraftKings points to make Arthur viable on Tuesday. He carries a near minimum price tag on him and with that an expectation of 20-23 Fantasy points as a value threshold. For his career, Arthur has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute. The Clippers have struggled against opposing frontcourts ranking 20th in defensive efficiency against them and 28th in rebounding rate. For Arthur to pay off his price tag at historical production rates, we’re in need of just 29 minutes. He played 34 last game and we’re projecting him for 32 this evening. The upside isn’t massive here, but he’s currently the best option for pure salary relief.
Additional power forward notes: Paul Millsap (ATL) is a very stable “next-in-line” option to Blake Griffin and on sites where the pricing gap is large, Millsap is a viable cash game alternative if you’re in need of a little more salary relief. Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) and Jared Sullinger (BOS) are the best secondary targets as mid-priced options with rather stable floors and price points that allow them the opportunity to approach their value thresholds. The upside is a bit limited but they’re fine as last pieces on a roster. JaMychal Green (MEM) would flash as a value play in projection systems if Randolph is out simply due to the cheap price tag, but we think Arthur is a more solid play. Draymond Green (GS) is a fine tournament target. The price tag is reasonable and if choosing players in a potential blowout, the players relying on rebounds and blocks/steals, tend to have a better opportunity to go off because the opportunity for defensive points is usually increased. Kris Humphries (WAS) is interesting as a tournament option due to his really cheap price tag (near minimum) and an injury to Nene Hilario (questionable) that could open up more playing time. We expect the Wizards may get forced into more small ball lineups against a healthy Indiana team that lacks frontcourt depth, but if Hilario is out, Humphries has some outs for upside. He’s a fine pivot off of Arthur in tournaments where we expect Arthur will be widely owned.
Center - Our featured site for the center position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Marc Gasol (MEM)/DeAndre Jordan (LAC)/Al Horford (ATL) – All three centers project within the same range of outcomes and all three are viable cash game targets. Gasol is the safest and contains the biggest upside if Zach Randolph is out. Gasol’s played 40, 37, 35, and 41 minutes in the last five games with the minutes bump coming primarily due to injuries from Brandan Wright and Zach Randolph. The Mavericks have been solid defensively against centers (ninth in efficiency) but they rank 22nd in defensive rebounding rate and frankly we think they’ve outperformed their defensive talent early in the season. If Randolph is ruled out, Gasol is our favorite target of this group. Al Horford often has the best price tag of the group. He’ll face the Celtics who rank 12th in defensive efficiency against centers and 16th in rebounding rate. He projects a bit below Gasol and Jordan in raw points, but the slight savings in cost make him a comparable play to both if Randolph is in. Jordan is sort of the odd man out, through little fault of his own. He’s priced a little more aggressively and his rebound dependence brings a little extra volatility in his production. He’s a strong pivot in tournament lineups where you’re not using Blake Griffin.
Value Play:
Nikola Jokic (DEN) – The lack of depth in the Nuggets frontcourt meets a challenge on Tuesday against a Clippers team that primarily plays big. This should force Jokic into an extended role, a role that his current price is not accounting for. Jokic has been impressive in his rookie season, accruing 1.06 FanDuel points per minute and last game he racked up 27 minutes against the small-ball oriented Warriors. We think he has a good chance to approach 30 minutes this evening and his current price tags around the industry have a value threshold around 24-27 Fantasy points. Foul trouble is a risk against the Clippers frontcourt but Jokic has done a nice job avoiding fouls in his limited NBA experience (3.2 per 36 minutes). The great depth at the center position makes it so that Jokic is not a must play on a site like FanDuel, but on sites where you can roster multiple big men, he’s a very strong option.
Mason Plumlee (POR) – Plumlee’s minutes have picked up with the injury to Meyers Leonard and he’s taken advantage, averaging just under 28 FanDuel points per game in November. His current price tag requires a value threshold right around that mark and he’s facing a Bulls team that ranks 21st in rebounding and 19th in defensive efficiency against centers. The depth of the center position pushes Plumlee a bit in limbo, but as an individual play he’s a strong value.
Additional center notes: Pau Gasol (CHI) is just a step shy in projection from Horford and his brother Marc Gasol but gets a strong matchup (Portland ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against centers). After last game’s loss Gasol complained a bit in the media about needing more post touches, so there is some chance at a “squeaky wheel” game where Gasol gets a bump in opportunities. Where priced similarly to Horford and Marc Gasol, we expect the ownership will be lower, making him a very strong tournament target. The depth at the center position should spread ownership out among Gasol, Jordan, Jokic, and Horford, so there aren’t as many tournament targets to consider. We always like taking a chance on Kelly Olynyk’s (BOS) per minute production at minimum price points, so he’s an option but it’s best in tournaments to attack with a non-Marc Gasol option as we figure his ownership will be highest of the group.
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