NFL DFS WEEK FOUR: THE RUNNING OF THE BILLS
Welcome to the fourth weekly edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each week throughout the NFL season our weekly NFL analysis will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the week based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
*DVOA statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
Thursday Slate Note: We generally suggest playing the Thursday slate when you can 1) attack a core value play or 2) fade the game completely. With weather concerns and high priced players on both sides of the ball in a game with a total of just 43.5, this looks like an excellent spot to enter Thursday contests and fade the game.
Quarterbacks – The featured site for the quarterback position is Fantasy Aces
Top 5 Quarterbacks
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Andrew Luck (IND)
3) Russell Wilson (SEA)
4) Cam Newton (CAR)
5) Carson Palmer (ARZ)
Top Play:
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – For the second week in a row, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck rank really closely in our projections. Both teams have an implied team total over 28 points and both quarterbacks represent a rather high percentage of their team’s market share of touchdowns (Rodgers – 91 percent this season, 77 percent last season; Luck – 72 percent this season, 83 percent last season). Rodgers is the better player and the more reliable Fantasy asset. The matchups are similar for both. San Francisco and Jacksonville rank in the bottom five of Football Outsiders defensive DVOA rankings and they rank 29th and 25th respectively in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage rankings. They’re priced similarly on many sites and without much price gap, we’d choose the safety of Rodgers’ recent play over Luck.
Value Plays:
Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – Taylor’s price tag hasn’t adjusted for his early season production. Taylor is tied for fifth in Fantasy points produced at the quarterback position and he’s faced a fairly neutral schedule overall. The Giants have allowed 345 pass yards per game and rank 31st in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage rankings and 32nd in their pass rush rankings. Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses in the past have been very aggressive in order to create a pass rush, blitzing often if they can’t create it on their own. This usually leaves man defenses behind which is ideal for a running quarterback. It’s a friendly matchup for Taylor and the Bills have an implied team total at 26 points which ranks just outside the Top Five this week. There are a handful of good value plays at the quarterback position and the position has small gaps in projections so Taylor isn’t a necessity; but he is one of our favorite values.
Derek Carr (OAK) – We’ve spent much of the first three weeks harping on the challenges the Bears defense faced this season transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 without the appropriate talent. Football Outsiders ranks them as the worst defense in the NFL while Pro Football Focus’ ratings have them as slightly below average. They traded Jared Allen this week who was one of just two players on the entire defense that had a positive overall grade from Pro Football Focus. It’s a decrepit unit and the Raiders quarterback is set up well to take advantage. The Raiders are modest favorites (three points) with an implied team total approaching 24. It’s just a three game sample, but Carr has taken big steps forward this season. He’s improved his YPA from 5.46 to 8.07 while also bumping his completion percentage (63.3 percent from 58.1 percent). The Bears have allowed a rather ridiculous 71 percent completion percentage and 7.9 YPA in the first three games. Volume has been the main problem against the Bears as they’ve played from so far behind opponents have gone run heavy but the relatively tight spread eases game script concerns. He’s a Top 12 quarterback option this week and on most sites he’s priced around the 18th-20th best option.
Russell Wilson (SEA)/Cam Newton (CAR) – Russ rates a bit higher in our projection model as the Seahawks have an implied team total a few points higher (26.5 to 21.25) and Wilson’s market share of the Seahawks offense may bump up with Marshawn Lynch battling a hamstring injury. Both quarterbacks are a touch underpriced from the top options and project only a few points behind. The Bucs and Lions are average defenses but we like the Lions matchup a bit more for Wilson since they play more man-to-man coverage while Lovie Smith defenses often play a lot of zone. The slight advantage in defenses is neutralized a bit by Carolina’s willingness to run more designed running plays for Cam, especially around the goal line. They rank very closely, but our lean in cash games is on Wilson at home.
Additional quarterback notes: Andy Dalton (CIN) is simply too cheap on DraftKings ($5,900) and is a very strong cash game target against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks early in the season (boosted by facing Rodgers/Manning, but also allowed 334 yards and two touchdowns to Ryan Mallett). Carson Palmer (ARZ) and Matt Ryan (ATL) are fine secondary targets at the position in cash games. In general, both have price points that are a bit more aggressive than the players we’re recommending above, but volume in the passing game along with historically ineffective goal line backs makes them safe options. Michael Vick’s (PIT) minimum price tag will draw consideration given his reputation in Fantasy circles and an elite supporting cast, but we think it’s an unnecessary risk. Weather is an expected concern in Baltimore and Vick’s historically struggled with turnovers. In wet conditions with the Steelers implied team total around just 20.5 points, we see superior options all around him. His rushing ability would typically garner tournament interest, but Thursday players usually get a bump in expected ownership and with Flacco opposite him, we expect that to be the case. His projection profile fits as a tournament play, but with ownership likely inflated it’s probably better to fade him.
Running Back – The featured site for the running back position is DraftDay
Top 10 Running Backs
1) Le’Veon Bell (PIT)
2) Jamaal Charles (KC)
3) Latavius Murray (OAK)
4) Matt Forte (CHI)
5) Devonta Freeman (ATL) – if Tevin Coleman out
6) Eddie Lacy (GB)
7) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
8) Frank Gore (IND)
9) Mark Ingram (NO)
10) Karlos Williams (BUF) – if Lesean McCoy out
Top Plays:
Our lean is against paying way up in cash games at running back. The position is loaded with values this week and we’re anxious to fit in a specific high priced wide receiver. If spending up at running back this week, Le’veon Bell (PIT) looks like your best bet for cash games. The presence of Michael Vick should open up additional running lanes for Bell and Vick’s lean on the short passing game in poor conditions will likely keep his receptions floor elevated. This Pittsburgh offense is dangerous to invest in since they’re all priced based on operating with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, but Bell’s role figures to be the safest. He earned a 95 percent market share of carries in his first game back and we expect the Steelers run:pass distribution to skew more heavily towards the run or short passes (including Bell’s skill set) in this matchup.
Value Plays:
Karlos Williams (BUF) – All indications early in the week suggest Lesean McCoy is going to miss this matchup with the Giants. The Bills are a high volume running attack, averaging 31 carries per week, and they lead the league in run play percentage (53.01 percent). As six point favorites, with a team total of 26 points, we expect another 30 or more carries for the Bills offense. Williams had already earned a 25.8 percent market share of carries and 15.8 percent market share of red zone opportunities. Replacing McCoy (46.24 percent carries and 36.84 percent red zone market share) gives Williams a likely chance at a 70 percent market share on carries (20 or more expectation) and a 35 percent or more market share of red zone opportunities (Buffalo is generating 6.3 per game). This isn’t just a play on volume for Williams. The rookie has averaged 7.8 yards per carry this season and was dominant around the goal line college; racking up 22 touchdowns on less than 250 carries in two seasons at Florida State. Throw in a near minimum price point and it’s very difficult to avoid locking in Williams in cash games. He’s our favorite value play of the slate and a building block in cash games.
Latavius Murray (OAK) – Murray rewarded our faith last week in a favorable road matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 30th overall in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings and 32nd in Pro Football Focus’ run defense rankings. This week he’ll face the Bears who rank 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ run defense rankings and 32nd in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA rankings. Murray is one of the few workhorse backs in the NFL, tallying an 81 percent market share of carries, 34.5 percent market share of red zone opportunities, and nine percent market share of targets. Like last week, Vegas expects game script to be neutral for Murray (Raiders are three point favorites with an implied team total of 23.75 points). His ability to contribute in the passing game helps elevate his floor and his price is slightly discounted from where we expect it to settle towards the end of the season. We’ve got Murray projected as a Top Five running back option this week and on most sites he’s still priced around the Top 10.
Devonta Freeman (ATL) – We still question Freeman’s skills, but the opportunity with Tevin Coleman out is unquestionable. Freeman earned a 96.8 percent market share of carries, 55.6 percent market share of red zone opportunities, and 14.3 percent of targets in Week Three. The Texans run defense is above average according to both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders but game script and opportunity should help feed volume for a relatively affordable price point. Freeman’s capable out of the backfield and while we question his skill set (3.7 yards per carry, below average combine metrics), he ran exceptionally well last weekend. We only like him if Coleman is officially ruled out as the bulk of his value is in volume.
Tournament Play:
Melvin Gordon (SD) – Gordon’s matchup and price point are tasty enough to consider in cash games, but his profile serves better in tournaments. The Browns rank dead last in Pro Football Focus’ run defense rankings and 26th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. The Chargers are strong favorites (eight points) and have a healthy team total approaching 26 points. This matchup sets up well for a Gordon breakout game. However, through the first three games the Chargers have largely played from behind so it’s unclear what Gordon’s expected snap rate and market share of carries, and most importantly red zone usage is when they have the lead. He’s only run 22 routes in three games and picked up four receptions, so his Fantasy value is heavily tied to the ground game. With a staggering zero percent market share of red zone opportunities, it’s also unclear if he’ll get the goal line work. We believe he’ll get the goal line work but the lack of certainty coupled with the other strong values is enough to consider him a player to mix in on multiple cash lineups or use in tournaments; especially on full PPR sites. The lack of receiving action could leave Gordon with an unfulfilling line even if he posts a strong 80-90 yards and a touchdown.
Additional running back notes: Ryan Mathews (PHI) would emerge as a very strong value play if DeMarco Murray (PHI) is ruled out. Mathews was a workhorse back in Week Three earning a 69.4 percent market share of carries, 33.3 percent share of red zone opportunities, and 14.3 percent share of targets. Priced around the minimum, he’d form a similarly elite value to Karlos Williams. Frank Gore (IND) is a solid secondary value. The Colts have an implied team total over 28 points and Gore has earned a 26 percent market share of red zone opportunities. He’s not active in the passing game (six targets) which lowers the floor and the ceiling but the price is cheap enough that 80 yards and a touchdown won’t hurt you. We’d opt for Melvin Gordon before using Frank Gore in cash game lineups as we feel Gordon’s upside is higher and the floors are fairly similar. T.J. Yeldon (JAX) remains an interesting tournament option. He’ll come with low ownership as a road underdog against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed the 10th most Fantasy points to opposing running backs through three weeks and Yeldon’s workhorse characteristics (68 percent carries, 36 percent red zone, and 11 percent targets) gives him a high ceiling for a cheap cost. On FanDuel, the price points on C.J. Anderson (DEN) and Jeremy Hill (CIN) have come down far enough to consider them tournament options. Neither back has been involved in the passing game early on which really limits their upside on full PPR sites, but they both have friendly matchups for game flow as heavy home favorites. While we’re not recommending targeting high priced running backs in cash, Matt Forte (CHI), Eddie Lacy (GB), and Arian Foster (HOU), if active, all have the kind of upside that can win tournaments. We expect their ownership levels will be low this week with all the emphasis on value running backs.
Wide Receiver – The featured site for the wide receiver position is FanDuel
Top 10 WR Rankings
1) Julio Jones (ATL)
2) Randall Cobb (GB)
3) A.J. Green (CIN)
4) Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)
5) Antonio Brown (PIT)
6) Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
7) Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ)
8) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
9) T.Y. Hilton (IND)
10) Brandon Marshall (NYJ)
Top Plays:
Julio Jones (ATL) – Julio has compiled 46 targets in his first three games for an astounding 40 percent market share and 23 percent red zone share. Kyle Shannahan’s offense funnels opportunities to their most talented players, as evidenced last week when Freeman and Jones combined for an 89 percent market share of red zone opportunities last week. Julio moves all over the formation and while the Texans used Jonathan Joseph to shadow in Week One, they haven’t used him in that role since. I think it’s likely Houston uses Joseph in shadow coverage, but it’s not a primary concern. Joseph finished last season as the 20th rated coverage CB on Pro Football Focus and is 43rd so far this season. He’s good but the volume Julio Jones is getting is incredible and historically he’s dominated with this kind of opportunity. According to the RotoViz Game Splits App Julio has averaged 8.3 receptions, 118.45 yards, and 0.68 touchdowns in games that he’s received 10 or more targets in his career. He’s earned 11, 15, and 20 targets in each of the three games. With most other elite running backs and wide receivers in difficult matchups and Rob Gronkowski on bye, we think Julio Jones is the high priced staple of cash game lineups.
Next in line:
Randall Cobb (GB) – If you’re not playing Julio Jones in cash games, make sure to get Randall Cobb in your lineups. Cobb has posted market shares of 34 and 35 percent in the last two weeks. At those levels, he’s almost assured of 10 targets from the most efficient quarterback in the league. The 49ers secondary is a disaster. They were lit up by Antonio Brown in Week Two and Larry Fitzgerald in Week Three. Cobb mostly lines up in the slot where Tramaine Brock is opposite him. Brock currently ranks 73rd out of 100 corners in Pro Football Focus’ coverage rankings. The Packers have an implied team total over 28 points. Despite Cobb’s stature he’s been an effective red zone target in his career. Last year he scored 12 touchdowns, eight of which came in the red zone. This year he’s scored on four of his six red zone targets and is tied with Lacy for the highest red zone market share on the team (21 percent). He’s our second ranked receiver and often priced outside the Top Five around the industry.
Primary Value Plays:
Donte Moncrief (IND) – We prefer Moncrief’s price tag far more than T.Y. Hilton’s this week, but both grade out as solid values around the industry. They’ve been targeted similarly each of the last two weeks (Moncrief – 15, Hilton – 14) and their snap counts have also been similar (Hilton – 80 percent, Moncrief – 81 percent). We believe Moncreif is the more talented player, but Hilton has a longer history of above average NFL performance. Both have depressed price points as the Colts have struggled to generate touchdowns (2.3 per week compared to 3.25 per week last season). This week they have an implied team total over 28 and face a Jags secondary that ranks 25th in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage rankings. The individual CB matchups don’t stand out. McCray, who will likely be on Moncrief, ranks 47th in Pro Football Focus coverage rankings while Davon House ranks 52nd. Moncrief’s price point makes him a core cash game value and the best way to get exposure to the high powered Colts offense in cash games. Hilton is more of a secondary target in our eyes.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ) – Fitzgerald’s price tag is starting to rise around the industry but he gets another favorable matchup in Week Four. Mostly lining up in the slot, Fitzgerald should face Lamarcus Joyner who ranks 52nd in Pro Football Focus coverage rankings but has allowed 10 of 11 targets completed for 82 yards. Fitzgerald owns a 32 percent market share of targets and 17 percent market share of red zone opportunities. Arizona has a solid implied team total (24.5 points) and we expect most of their success in the red zone will come via the air as opposed to against St. Louis rather stout run defense (ranked first in Pro Football Focus’ run defense rankings). Fitzgerald is their primary weapon (just under two red zone targets per game) in the passing game inside the red zone and his high target total overall (9.3 per week despite a run heavy a nearly equal run:pass distribution due to game script) provides a nice floor. His ownership will likely remain high in GPPs after two big weeks in a row, which makes him an easier fade; but he’s a very strong cash game option.
James Jones (GB) – Davante Adams hasn’t been able to practice early in the week and Jones saw a big bump in market share last week with Adams injured. After posting target market shares of 17 percent and 10 percent in the first two weeks, Jones bumped up to 22 percent last week. We know Jones has a rapport with Rodgers around the red zone, but a bump in overall market share makes him a more consistent play that isn’t solely touchdown dependent. He’ll matchup with Kenneth Acker who has been targeted 18 times in the first three games and allowed 205 yards on a 72 percent completion rate. Jones’ price point remains below the average cost of a receiver on most sites making him a very strong value play.
Additional wide receiver notes: Those five wide receivers are our primary targets in cash games but they aren’t the only solid cash game targets. Amari Cooper (OAK), T.Y. Hilton (IND), and A.J. Green (CIN) are our secondary value plays from the expensive tier. Cooper has an elite matchup against the Bears corners that rank 56th and 82nd in Pro Football Focus’ coverage rankings. Cooper’s got a strong market share of targets (27 percent) and is averaging over 10 targets per game. The one concern with Cooper is he hasn’t been involved in the red zone at all (zero percent red zone market share) which makes him big play and PPR dependent. Hilton is a fine play at home against a weak Jaguars secondary. We simply prefer the softer entry point on Moncrief and it’s difficult to target two wide receivers from the same team in cash games. A.J. Green gets a matchup with talented rookie corner Marcus Peters who ranks Top 25 in Pro Football Focus’ coverage rankings but is getting picked on incessantly by opposing coordinators (31 targets through three games!). We like Cobb’s consistency more than Green at similar price points but Green is a fine alternative. Jordan Matthews (PHI) and Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) both have favorable matchups but big time weather concerns that make them secondary targets in cash games. At cheaper price points, Marvin Jones (CIN) and Allen Hurns (JAX) are our favorite secondary value plays. Jones is far too cheap for his talent level. He’s played 80 and 87 percent of the snaps the last two weeks and picked up 13 targets while scoring twice. The Bengals can spread it around because they have so many options and he’ll likely matchup with Sean Smith who ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus’ coverage rankings last season. If Smith shadows Green, Jones could go off. He’s likely better in tournaments. Allen Hurns is a safer play with a lower upside but also a cheap price point. With Vontae Davis likely matching up with Allen Robinson, Hurns should see an uptick in targets with a likely unfavorable game script. The targets haven’t been there (15 through three games) but the snap shares have been great (96, 79, and 82). If Robinson is bottled up and the Jaguars are playing from behind, Hurns is the most likely beneficiary. In tournaments, Demaryius Thomas (DEN), John Brown (ARZ), and Brandon Marshall (NYJ) are our favorite targets. Thomas will likely draw Xavier Rhodes in coverage for Minnesota. He’s an above average corner and Thomas’ price point will likely push ownership down. We like his touchdown scoring potential over Emmanuel Sanders and thus view him as a higher upside tournament play. John Brown (ARZ) has squandered chances to score in each of the last two games and remains the Cardinals primary deep threat. He’s getting opportunities but hasn’t converted on the big play (drawing a ton of pass interferences and dropping an end zone touchdown last week). Using him over Fitzgerald creates leverage on a highly owned player (if Brown goes off, difficult for Fitzgerald to do so as well) which makes him our favorite tournament target. Brandon Marshall (NYJ) gets a struggling Dolphins secondary and the game as a whole may go overlooked in Thursday lock contests since it’s not included in most Sunday contests. The Jets will likely feature another pass happy approach given the Dolphins are far more vulnerable through the air than on the ground and Marshall should lead the charge as their highest market share receiver inside and outside the red zone.
Tight Ends – The featured site for the tight end position is DraftKings
Top 5 Tight End Rankings
1) Greg Olsen (CAR)
2) Jimmy Graham (NO)
3) Travis Kelce (KC)
4) Jordan Reed (WAS)
5a) Jason Witten (DAL)
5b) Martellus Bennett (CHI)
Top Play:
Greg Olsen (CAR) – Olsen is tied for the league lead in targets at the tight end position with 28 through three games. He faces a Buccaneers that is better than most think (10th in Football Outsiders DVOA) and 15th in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage rankings. Love Smith’s defenses have been historically vulnerable to tight ends as they try to prevent big plays on the outside with a Cover Two or Cover Three defense and then funnel targets to the middle of the field or intermediate out routes. The Panthers don’t really have precise route runners on the outside so Olsen should see the bulk of attention once again. The Panthers have a low implied team total (21.25 points) and Olsen’s price tag is elevated a bit, but he’s one of the safer options in cash games just due to volume. He’s not our primary target in cash games because of the price bump.
Value Plays:
Jordan Reed (WAS) – Our only concern with Reed is the weather issues in the east coast and its impact on this game. The Eagles lost Kiko Alonso, their primary cover LB, and Demeco Ryans has struggled in coverage (9-11, 64 yards in three games). Reed owns a 24 percent market share of targets and is the third highest targeted tight end through three weeks (26) at just under nine targets per game. If weather forecasts improve considerably, Reed will represent our favored tight end target. I think it’s safer to avoid him in Thursday lock contests given some question marks at the magnitude of the weather’s impact.
Jason Witten (DAL) – Martellus Bennett (CHC) and Witten are easy alternatives to Reed on sites they’re priced similarly. Bennett has a dream matchup with the Raiders who have allowed a ridiculous five touchdowns and 305 yards to tight ends in three games. The concern with Bennett is quarterback play. The Bears offense has looked incompetent with Jimmy Clausen but they’ve also played two elite defenses in the last two weeks. Bennett led the team in targets with five but the whole offensive approach was extremely conservative. On skill and matchup Bennett is the better option, but Witten appears safer. The Cowboys offense is functional with Brandon Weeden and the Saints defense is also a disaster against the tight end position, allowing 268 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends in the first three weeks.
Additional tight end notes: Charles Clay (BUF) is more of a secondary option on most sites, but the near punt price tag on DraftKings makes him a strong target in cash games. The loss of Sammy Watkins should push up Clay’s market share (currently 22 percent) as he likely becomes the Bills top target against a Giants defense that has allowed 241 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends through the first three weeks. Maxx Williams (BAL) is a name I’m really interested in for Thursday night tournaments. With Crockett Gilmore sidelined in the second half last week, Williams garnered eight targets. The Steelers secondary is vulnerable to tight ends as they allowed 6-95-4 to New England in Week One followed by 8-83-0 to the 49ers in Week Two. Given the TE has operated as Baltimore’s second favorite target after Steve Smith, I could see Williams emerging with a nice stat line and a punt price tag. My only concern is that Thursday ownership might get inflated on him, but so far there hasn’t been much industry buzz around him. Tyler Eifert (CIN) is a great tournament option every week. He’ll lack week-to-week consistency because the Bengals have so many offensive weapons but we saw his upside in Week One. The Chiefs secondary has struggled early on, though the return of Sean Smith should help.
Defense/ST – The featured site for the Defense/ST position is Fantasy Aces
Top 5 Defense/ST Rankings
1) Seattle Seahawks
2) Arizona Cardinals
3) Denver Broncos
4) Carolina Panthers
5) Buffalo Bills
Top Play:
Seattle Seahawks – This isn’t quite the Bears offense but the Lions offense may even provide more upside than the Bears run heavy approach. Detroit leads the league in pass play percentage (72.4 percent) and with an inaccurate quarterback (Stafford ranks 26th in Pro Football Focus’ accuracy rankings at quarterback). The Seahawks have the second ranked pass rush according to Pro Football Focus and Stafford drops to 33rd in their rankings when under pressure. The Lions are also allowing a heavy amount of pressure as Stafford has been charted as under pressure on 40 percent of his drop backs. Part of this is schedule driven as they’ve faced Minnesota and Denver that have two very talented fronts, but Seattle is another front that grades out as similarly talented to Minnesota. Detroit has a measly team total of 16.5 points which in combination with their high volume passing attack brings the matchup a lot of upside and a relatively safe floor. Defense is flush with options this week but if you have a little extra cap room, Seattle is our favorite.
Next in line:
Arizona Cardinals/Denver Broncos – The Cardinals and Broncos have been the top two defenses through the first three weeks. Both have feasted on favorable early season schedules and both are heavy home favorites against struggling offenses. We give the Cardinals the edge as they face a St. Louis offense that has thrown the ball on 62 percent of plays compared to Minnesota who has thrown on just 47 percent of plays. Arizona should have more opportunities to rack up scoring although Denver seems safer to limit points. Both Minnesota and St. Louis are allowing pressure on over 40 percent of their drop backs this season and Bridgewater and Foles each have a sack percentage above 12 percent. This is a good matchup for both defensive lines and on most sites they represent our primary targets in cash games.
Additional D/ST notes: The Buffalo Bills are the primary alternative to the Broncos and Cardinals if price point is a challenge. They’re very good at home and their front seven has a big matchup advantage on the Giants. They fall a bit in pricing limbo because there are comparable defenses priced well below them and the Cardinals/Broncos aren’t far ahead. San Diego Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals are the two value defenses we’d consider if price point is really a challenge. Both are solid home favorites and Josh McCown and Alex Smith are hovering around that 40 percent pressure percentage. Smith isn’t typically a player we like to attack with opposing defenses but he’s taken a league high 16 sacks through three games and turned the ball over six times. McCown has a more extended track record of sack and turnover issues that we can feel confident attacking. For tournaments the New York Jets are a fun defense to target. They’re technically on the road but the game is in London. The Dolphins have the second highest pass percentage in the league and Tannehill has been pressured on 40.7 percent of his drop backs. They’re not available in all slates, so they may go overlooked and under-owned in Thursday lock contests.
Kickers
Our general kicker strategy is to target kickers on high total teams who are projected to struggle in the red zone (either due to their own offense or the defense they are facing). Additionally, it’s best to completely avoid any possible inclement weather, putting an emphasis on kickers in domes or in games with medium to high temperatures and very little projected wind. Finally, we like to take field goal kickers from teams that are favored as they’re more likely to pile on field goals late while underdogs may chase touchdowns. Of our featured sites, only FanDuel still includes the kicker position. Here are some cheap targets on that particular site: Josh Lambo (SD), Chandler Catanzaro (ARZ) and Dan Carpenter (BUF). Some more expensive options if you happen to have the room or are in tournaments are Adam Vinatieri (IND), Steven Hauschka (SEA) and Brandon McManus (DEN).
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