Daily Fantasy Rundown – March 10 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and“TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Kyle Lowry (TOR) – Lowry’s expected value is right around 40 Fantasy points tonight, and his value threshold on our featured sire for point guards (DraftKings) is in the low 40s. We think Lowry deserves cash game merit even in a difficult matchup vs. Atlanta (allowing 0.73 points per possession against ball handlers in pick and roll situations, where Lowry excels the most), but our focus in cash is to pay up for LeBron James – the stud at a position that carries very low opportunity cost.
Next in line:
Kyrie Irving (CLE) – Irving is the point guard we’re more likely settling for in cash games. The price on DraftKings is fair ($7,700 – value threshold in the high 30s), but there’s still room for profits here relative to the matchup. The Lakers are the friendliest matchup for point guards (ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and allowing the second most assists to PGs), and as long as this game remains somewhat competitive into the fourth quarter, Irving should see 35-37 minutes. Irving usually begins the fourth quarter with the second unit while LeBron/Love are resting, so he’s usually the Cleveland stud that’s less affected by blowout situations. Even if his minutes are scaled back in a blowout, the boost in efficiency could be all he needs in order to reach value. At $7,200 on FanDuel, Irving is a near must play in cash games since the price is only asking for a low return of 33-34 Fantasy points (we’re projecting 36-38 Fantasy points for Irving tonight).
The Rest: D’Angelo Russell (LAL) has been on a tear in his last seven starts as the point guard for the Lakers, generating at least 39 DraftKings points in five of those seven starts. The price has corrected around the industry, but Russell has a matchup against a Cleveland team that’s only below average from a defensive efficiency standpoint vs. PGs (ranked 19th), and if Kobe Bryant sits, more offensive responsibility will fall in Russell’s shoulders (27 percent usage rate, 26.8 percent assist rate without Bryant on the court vs. 24.3 percent usage rate, 22.3 percent assist rate with Bryant on the court). We’re ultimately more comfortable investing in Russell in cash games if Bryant sits, but if Bryant plays, Russell would become a better option for tournaments. The price has also adjusted rapidly for Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) on DraftKings ($6,500), but the friendly matchup vs. Phoenix (ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and allowing the fourth most assists to PGs) and more offensive responsibility (uptick in usage rate and assits rate without Danilo Gallinari around) keeps him in the cash game conversation, though the price makes him a better target for tournaments. On FanDuel, Mudiay is $6,000, so the price hasn’t fully adjusted there. The lower price tag makes him a better cash game option on FanDuel than on DraftKings. Marcelo Huertas (LAL) will continue to see 25-27 minutes off the bench since Lou Williams is out, which is enough playing time to pay consider him as a punt option everywhere. We’re more interested in Huertas as a punt on DraftKings due to the tight pricing nature of the site and the difficulty of finding viable sub $4,000 players, but we’re only willing to punt a second guard/utility spot with him, not the primary point guard slot.
Shooting Guard – Our featured site for the shooting guard position is FanDuel
Top Play:
DeMar DeRozan (TOR) – Like teammate Kyle Lowry, DeRozan is the top projected scorer at his position, but we’re unlikely to pay up for him over LeBron James in cash games. DeRozan is viable in all formats, but we prefer to grab exposure here in tournaments tonight.
Value Plays:
Will Barton, Gary Harris (DEN) and Devin Booker (PHO) have expected values in the mid to high 20s this evening. While they’re all cash game viable, the best option of the bunch is Barton. Barton is the better point per minute producer (averaging nearly one FanDuel point per minute this season) of these three, and while the difficulty with projecting his value is often getting him on a night where his minutes are on the right side of 20 (high 20s instead of low 20s), we think he plays 27-29 minutes tonight since Phoenix doesn’t run their offense with two points guards in the second unit. With that minutes expectation in mind, Barton should be able to get on top of his high 20s value threshold on FanDuel. We were hoping for more minutes and more offensive responsibility without Danilo Gallinari around, but at least Barton’s minutes should be more secure tonight and the matchup is perfect (Phoenix is ranked 30th in defensive efficiency vs. SGs and they’re allowing the most points to the position).
Harris’ minutes are more significant than Barton’s (averaging 38 minutes per game in his last five games), but his price tag around the industry has corrected. Booker has been on a tear as of late (34, 43, 27 and 39 FanDuel points in his last four games), and his minutes are on the rise (averaging 37 minutes per game in his last five games), but so is his price. We prefer Booker in tournaments since he’s just as expensive as Barton (the better point per minute producer), but the lack of options at the position below these three keeps him viable in cash games.
Additional shooting guard notes: J.R. Smith (CLE) has seen his price drop to below $5,000 around the industry, and a matchup vs. the Lakers should help his value. His expected value is a few points lower than Harris’ and Booker’s, but his price is also lower. Smith is cash viable everywhere, but the best price for him can be found on FanDuel ($4,500). Jordan Clarkson (LAL) is shooting guard eligible on FanDuel, and while the matchup isn’t friendly, we’ll consider him for cash games if Kobe Bryant sits. Without Bryant, Clarkson’s usage rate and assist rate receives a boost, and his minutes become more significant (seeing 34-36 minutes lately when Bryant sits), which is enough to justify his $6,200 price tag on FanDuel. Nick Young (LAL) would see more run if Bryant sits, and he’s minimum priced around the industry. Young’s floor is ugly, but if you catch him on the right shooting night, he can generate 25-28 Fantasy points. He’d be a fine punt option in tournament if Bryant sits.
Small Forward – Our featured site for the small forward position is DraftKings
Top Play:
LeBron James (CLE) – The small forward position carries almost no opportunity cost tonight, and James has a road matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are allowing the third most points, fifth most rebounds and fifth most assists to the small forward position, and they’re allowing 1.17 points per possession in transition play. James is lethal in transition (averaging 1.27 points per possession in transition situations; 80th percentile), and the Lakers don’t have anyone in their roster to defend him. We realize that James played last night, but the matchup and his sub $10,000 on DraftKings (value threshold makes him the stud to build around in cash games at a position with very little opportunity cost.
Next in line:
Kawhi Leonard (SAS) – Leonard’s ceiling is likely capped at around 45-47 Fantasy points with Duncan and Parker back in the starting lineup. While James is the stud we’re building around in cash games, Leonard is the only other small forward option that can compete with his expected value. A blowout win vs. the Chicago Bulls (Jimmy Butler is out) at home (the Spurs have a 16.9 net rating at home this season) is likely, which makes it difficult to project Leonard’s minutes. If he plays somewhere around 36 minutes, he’ll meet value even at peak prices. Because we’re struggling with projecting his minutes, we prefer our exposure to Leonard to come in tournaments rather than cash games. On a site like FanDuel where multiple small forwards are required, we think taking a chance at Leonard’s playing time is worth it in cash games since the position is so underwhelming after him.
Additional small forward notes: After James and Leonard, the position turns ugly from a value perspective. Kent Bazemore (ATL) and Mirza Teletovic (PHO) are fine secondary options, but neither rates as a strong point per dollar value. Bazemore usually sees 28-30 minutes per game and Teletovic’s playing time is more volatile (sees 20-27 minutes), so if choosing between the two in cash games, we’ll side with Bazemore at similar prices. Teletovic’s ceiling is more significant since he’s the better point per minute producer and he sees double-digit field goal attempts off the bench, so we’re siding with him in tournaments.
Power Forward – Our featured site for the power forward position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Paul Millsap (ATL) – Millsap’s expected value is in the mid 30s tonight, and his value threshold is in the high 30s. His projection is slightly lower than his average DFS performance due to a difficult matchup (Toronto is ranked seventh in defensive efficiency vs. PFs and seventh in rebounding rate), but Millsap still projects as the top raw scorer at the position. Millsap is a better option for tournaments, but on our featured site for power forwards (FanDuel), he’s priced similarly to LaMarcus Aldridge and his expected value is higher than Aldridge’s. He’s viable in cash games on FanDuel, though we prefer him in tournaments on that site as well.
Next in line:
Kevin Love (CLE) and LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) have projected values in the low to mid 30s, but Love comes at a discount. This is particularly the case on FanDuel, where Love is $6,800 while Aldridge is $7,900. When accounting for the matchup (as well as the gap in pricing), Love comes out ahead from a point per dollar perspective. The Lakers are an average team vs. PFs (ranked 15th in defensive efficiency), and they struggle to rebound (ranked 26th in rebounding rate). The asking price for Love requires 32 Fantasy points in order to meet value, and we’re projecting him for 33-34 FanDuel points tonight. Aldridge is a good alternative on sites where he’s priced similarly, but we prefer him in tournaments on a site like FanDuel where the gap in pricing is significant.
Value Play:
Tristan Thompson (CLE) – Thompson saw 37 minutes of playing time last night without Timofey Mozgov in the rotation (out due to an illness). If Mozgov is out again tonight, Thompson becomes a near must play in cash games. Realistically, Thompson only needs his average FanDuel performance (21 Fantasy points) in order to approach his value threshold, but if Mozgov is out, he’d receive at least six more minutes than his seasonal average of 28. With 34 minutes of playing time in mind, Thompson’s expected value would shift from low 20s to high 20s. The matchup is there for Thompson to succeed as an inside the paint scorer/rebounder (Lakers are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency in inside the paint scoring and 26th in rebounding rate), but it’s the minutes that Mozgov would leave behind if he were out that would elevate Thompson to a core play.
Additional power forward notes: It looks like Kenneth Faried (DEN) is finally healthy again, after generating performances of 39 and 54 Fantasy points in his last two games. Faried is volatile and the price has peaked relative to his floor, but he remains a high upside option in a matchup that’s just average. Julius Randle (LAL) is a steadier alternative to Faried, but his price has also plateaued around the industry. He’s a secondary tournament target in a tough matchup vs. a Cavaliers frontcourt that’s ranked second in defensive efficiency and third in rebounding rate.
Center - Our featured site for the center position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Pau Gasol (CHI) – Gasol’s price on DraftKings ($8,300) keeps him as a primary tournament value even in a difficult matchup vs. San Antonio. Jimmy Butler is out, and Gasol is averaging 1.38 DraftKings points without Butler on the court this season. The matchup will make it difficult for Gasol to generate his ceiling, but he’ll have to do more without Butler around and the price on DraftKings is depressed. Use him in tournaments.
Value Play:
Alex Len (PHO) – Len’s price is catching up quickly to his emergence as a primary offensive option for his team, but he remains the top point per dollar option at the position even after playing a game last night. After a difficult context last night (early foul trouble issues, blowout situation), Len still played 28 minutes and generated a little more than four times his salary on DraftKings. He’s been playing 34-36 minutes consistently as of late, and as a focal point of the Suns offense, we’re not expecting the playing time to dip below 30 minutes on most nights. The matchup vs. Denver is mostly neutral (Denver is ranked 15th in defensive efficiency vs. Cs, eight in rebounding rate), but the playing time should come back to the mid 30s as long as he avoids early foul trouble, and that’s enough to put his expected value in the mid 30s. That’s where you’ll find his value threshold around the industry, and as Len has showed as of late, a ceiling of 50 plus Fantasy points is there with this amount of playing time and more offensive responsibility on his side.
Additional center notes: Tim Duncan (SAS) is too cheap on Draftkings, where the price has dipped below $4,500. On that site, Duncan needs 25 Fantasy points in order to meet value, and he’s averaging 26 Fantasy points this season. His playing time can be very volatile, but a price that’s asking for his average DFS performance and the lack of viable plays in that price range makes him a worthwhile cash game target on that site. We’re ignoring him on FanDuel, where the price is more aggressive. Nikola Jokic (DEN) remains a great tournament option even with rising price points, but head coach Mike Malone is quick to bench him when he gets into foul trouble, and that creates risk. The only site we’re willing to use Jokic in cash games is on FanDuel, where most centers are overpriced outside of Alex Len. We still prefer him in tournaments. Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) is a good alternative to Jokic in tournaments, but at similar price points, we prefer Jokic. The best price for Valanciunas can be found on DraftKings ($5,300), where we consider him a primary tournament target relative to the price and favorable matchup (Atlanta is ranked 21st in defensive efficiency vs. Cs and 29th in rebounding rate).
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