Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 8 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Top Plays:
Stephen Curry (GS)/Russell Westbrook (OKC) – The two top point guards in Fantasy are both in action on Tuesday night and both project very closely. On paper, Westbrook has the better matchup as Memphis ranks 21st in defensive efficiency against point guards while Indiana ranks 10th. Historically, the two matchups have been similar. Indiana finished last season sixth in defensive efficiency against point guards while Memphis finished 10th. Of late, Memphis has been trending closer to historical norms (15th in defensive efficiency against point guards over the last 10 games and 12th over the last five games), while Indiana has struggled of late (23rd over the last five games and 24th over the last 10 games). These are likely due to injury situations. Indiana has been without George Hill in a few games of late while Memphis has gotten back Zach Randolph to their frontcourt. Our perspective is the two matchups are similar with Memphis perhaps slightly more challenging. Vegas expects both games to stay competitive (Warriors favored by six and Thunder favored by two) with Golden State having the edge on expected total (215 vs. 202). Despite the perception that Curry’s Warriors limit his minutes via blowouts, Curry actually has a slightly lower standard deviation of minutes this season than Westbrook. The two players also average nearly the same minutes per game and DraftKings points per minute (accounting for Westbrook with Durant). It’s very difficult to separate the two from one another. Our slight preference is towards Curry over Westbrook.
Value Plays:
Elfrid Payton (ORL) – The Magic are always difficult to trust because rotations change constantly under Scott Skiles leadership, but Payton and the Magic have adapted well to the recent lineup change. They had a tight loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles but they had won five in a row since the lineup change. Payton’s Fantasy production has stabilized with Oladipo coming off the bench as it’s encouraged a higher usage rate and more quality minutes. Since coming into the league, Payton has posted a 17.3 percent usage rate and 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with Oladipo on the floor compared to 22.6 percent usage rate and 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Oladipo off the floor, according to NBAWowy.com. Wlove the matchup with Denver who ranks 28th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 25th in overall defensive efficiency. Payton’s value thresholds around the industry sit around 33-34 Fantasy points which is a higher bar for a player averaging 27-29 Fantasy points per game this season, but it’s one we feel he can approach given the new lineup and the friendly matchup.
Additional point guard notes: The point guard position really lacks obvious values around the industry which makes the position difficult to attack. On softer pricing sites, paying up for Curry or Westbrook makes some sense relative to other positions. On FanDuel, Patrick Beverley (HOU) represents a low ceiling/high probability value play. His value threshold at $4,100 requires just a 21-22 FanDuel point performance. In a favorable matchup against Brooklyn who ranks 20th in defensive efficiency against point guards, we feel Beverley has a great chance at approaching his value thresholds. On DraftKings, Trey Burke (UTA) is underpriced at $3,900 and has a value threshold around 23-24 DraftKings points. Since Rudy Gobert’s injury, Burke has played 34 minutes in each of the last two games. For his career, Burke has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute. With no boost to efficiency, we’d need 28-29 minutes from Burke to approach his value thresholds on DraftKings. The Kings rank 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards and they often play two point guard lineups. We think it’s reasonable to project a boost in efficiency for Burke and the minutes will be there given the matchup. Burke is priced a bit higher on FanDuel and more of a borderline cash game target. Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) is priced down on FanDuel. His production is volatile but at this price point his average game this season is right under the value threshold and Orlando ranks 19th in defensive efficiency against point guards, providing a favorable matchup. Mike Conley (MEM) is an acceptable secondary target with a high floor and low ceiling. George Hill (IND) has a challenging matchup with Golden State but the bump in pace and a potential bump in usage if the Warriors hound Paul George with Andre Iguodala, makes Hill an intriguing tournament target.
Shooting Guard – Our featured site for the shooting guard position is FanDuel
Top Play:
James Harden (HOU) – Harden has a very favorable matchup with Brooklyn who ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards and just lost their best wing defender in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Of the expensive options, Harden projects as our highest scorer, but roster construction may de-emphasize him a bit in cash games. The margins are very thin among the highest projected players with Harden leading Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, DeMarcus Cousins, and Paul George by just a point or two; and shooting guard has a bit more depth to values than the point guard position. Harden is a very solid play in his own right and someone we’d pursue in cash games should a number of elite values pop up through injury news, but our recommended approach at the moment is to forego spending big on Harden in cash games.
Value Play:
Klay Thompson (GS) – Thompson’s performance has benefited from the absence of Harrison Barnes. With Barnes off the court this season Thompson has posted a 24 percent usage rate and averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute but those numbers drop to 20.5 percent usage and 0.79 FanDuel points per minutes when Barnes is on the floor. In the last five games without Barnes, Thompson has averaged 31.7 minutes, 15.2 field goal attempts, and 28.8 FanDuel points per game. His current salary requires a value threshold of 28 FanDuel points per game. The matchup with Indiana is a volatile one for Thompson. If the Pacers choose to guard Thompson with Paul George, it will be a difficult matchup but we think it’s more likely they keep Monta Ellis on Thompson and allow George to either guard Draymond Green (allowing him to switch pick-and-rolls aggressively) or “rest” him on Brandon Rush knowing George will have to shoulder a big offensive load. A matchup with Monta Ellis would be a favorable one for Thompson as he’d have 4-5 inches on Ellis and 30 pounds to operate in post ups. We think it’s far more likely Thompson is guarded by Ellis than George for most of the game and thus are willing to invest at depressed price points around the industry.
Additional shooting guard notes: Rodney Hood (UTA) is underpriced on FanDuel and the requirement for two shooting guards makes him a solid play against Sacramento’s historically bad defense against the position. The Kings rank 28th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards after finishing the last two seasons ranked 30th. (Technically, they’re improving!) Hood had some issues with back spasms recently and foul trouble remains a huge issue (4.3 per 36 minutes). Both have brought a lot of volatility into the profile but the price tag on FanDuel removes some of the risk. We’d consider Hood a better tournament target on most other sites. Evan Fournier (ORL) has a similarly depressed price tag but his minutes have been really volatile of late. We prefer him in tournaments on FanDuel where the price is compelling. Rodney Stuckey (IND) has been playing well of late and the price tag remains affordable. In a game that figures to play small for its entirety, it’s likely his minutes remain the same and Golden State’s bench defense (14th in efficiency) is slightly weaker than their starters (10th). Stuckey’s a solid secondary target. Alec Burks (UTA) and J.R. Smith (CLE) are the other secondary targets at the shooting guard position. Burks’ price is up a bit after a recent string of strong performances but a favorable matchup with the Kings gives him a chance to outperform the tag. We’re high on so many other Jazz players that our preference towards him falls down the totem pole. We were hopeful Mo Williams might sit out to encourage more opportunities for J.R. Smith, but it looks like he’ll play. Smith has posted a 20.7 usage rate and 0.69 FanDuel points per minute without Williams on the court compared to 15.3 and 0.60 with Williams on the court. The shifting of Williams to the bench is a slight boost for Smith but even with heavy minutes, he’s struggled to churn out value. His floor is pretty high because of those heavy minutes (36 or more in eight of the last 10 games), so he’s fine as a secondary cash game target. He and Stuckey would represent the best secondary targets.
Small Forward – Our featured site for the small forward position is DraftKings
Top Play:
LeBron James (CLE)/Kevin Durant (OKC)/Paul George (IND) – All three of the elite small forwards are in action tonight and they’re priced identically around the industry. While Paul George has certainly played at this level this season, it’s hard for projection systems not to expect some regression on the shooting side. George has shot .370 from three for his career but is up to .451 early this season while attempting 10.1 threes per game. If we assumed George’s career averages, he’d score 2.4 points less per game. Throw in a difficult matchup with the Warriors (who can use heavy doses of Andre Iguodala) who ranks fifth in defensive efficiency against small forwards and allow the second fewest three point attempts per game. As a result, we see George as a tournament option with LeBron and Durant as the potential cash game targets. We give LeBron a slight edge over Durant due to a better matchup. Portland ranks 28th in defensive efficiency against small forwards while Memphis ranks 10th. The price points around the industry are softer but with a lack of clear cut values, we’re finding ourselves gravitating towards a more balanced approach this week.
Primary Value Play:
Gordon Hayward (UTA) – Hayward gets one of the biggest boosts with Rudy Gobert off the floor. Since the beginning of 2014 with Gobert on the floor, Hayward has posted a 28.1 usage rate, 19.2 assist rate, and 7.8 rebound rate which is good for 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. With Gobert off the floor, Hayward has posted a 25.8 usage rate, 20.3 assist rate, and 8.6 rebound rate which is good for 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. The tradeoff in usage for more assists and more rebounds is beneficial to Hayward and it shows in the Fantasy points per minute. With Hayward’s price down after some early season struggles, a prime matchup against the Kings who rank 28th in overall defensive efficiency is a nice time to invest.
Secondary Value Play:
Omri Casspi (SAC) – Casspi has moved into the starting lineup with Willie Cauley-Stein’s injury and he’s played 33 and 28 minutes in those two starts. On the season, he’s averaging just 27 minutes per game so we’re getting a slight boost in opportunity for Casspi that isn’t currently priced in. The Jazz rank as a very strong team defensively but the loss of Rudy Gobert is going to make them far more vulnerable. We don’t have a huge sample but over the last three games Utah has slipped to 28th in defensive efficiency against power forwards. Casspi’s price tag is especially enticing on FanDuel at $4,300.
Additional small forward notes: Andre Iguodala’s (GS) minutes typically increase against elite perimeter scorers which Indiana certainly has in Paul George. While Iguodala’s floor is very low, we think it’s likely he approaches low thirties in minutes and at those rates he hasn’t a decent chance at beating his value thresholds. He’s a secondary value target, albeit with a low floor. Joe Johnson (BKN) has small forward eligibility and a cheap price tag on DraftKings. He’s been playing heavy minutes all year but they’ve largely been empty from a Fantasy perspective. Trevor Ariza (HOU) ranges between cash game and tournament status based on price around the industry. On DraftKings ($5,500), he’s a secondary tournament target but the higher price tag on FanDuel ($6,100) makes him a tournament option. Basically anywhere the threshold is around 30 Fantasy points or below, he’s an OK target but difficult to rely on more than that. Tobias Harris (ORL) and C.J. Miles (IND) are our favored tournament targets around the industry with a preference on Harris who is priced more appropriately. Miles can always get hot and in an up-tempo game against the Warriors, he may see more opportunities, but he’s overpriced.
Power Forward – Our featured site for the power forward position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Derrick Favors (UTA) – Favors is a monster with Gobert off the floor. Since the beginning of last season, Favors has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute with Gobert off the floor compared to 0.99 FanDuel points per minute with Gobert on the floor. His minutes also earn a slight bump in games Gobert is unavailable. In the four games Gobert has missed this season, Favors has played 40, 19, 38, and 44 minutes. On the season Favors averages just 32.2 minutes per game and we’re projecting him for 36 minutes this evening. Even with the price tag rising around the industry, Favors value thresholds are hovering around 38-40 Fantasy points. With his historical production a bit above a point per minute, we expect Favors to challenge that threshold this evening. There is certainly risk in this matchup as he’ll be tasked with covering DeMarcus Cousins who draws fouls at an extreme rate, but if Favors can avoid foul trouble the matchup with Sacramento’s frontcourt is very strong. Sacramento ranks 26th in defensive efficiency against opposing frontcourts. We have Favors projected slightly ahead of Draymond Green and we believe his upside is higher. Green has a bit less risk with fouls and is likely a more stable option overall, but we give Favors’ upside a slight lean.
Next in line:
Draymond Green (GS) – Green does not rate well in projection models as Indiana ranks third in defensive efficiency against opposing power forwards but this is a matchup we like a lot for Green. Indiana ranks 20th in rebounding rate and their small ball lineups should be conducive to Green’s Fantasy value. Typically the Pacers like to hide C.J. Miles as their “power forward” in small ball lineups and that matchup pulls bigs away from the basket for rebounding while on the offensive end the Pacers will double aggressively to protect Miles from post ups. It’s a much more dangerous proposition to double post ups for the Warriors and Green is relentlessly active so we don’t expect his rebounding numbers to take any hit. Additionally, his minutes at center help alleviate any concerns there. Green’s minutes have been up since Harrison Barnes’ departure and we expect they’ll remain in the high thirties for this matchup with the Pacers. Most projection systems will ding Green’s expected efficiency in this matchup, but we feel it’s at worst neutral. If we take Green’s baseline per minute production (a little over one FanDuel point per game), we think a fair baseline for Green this evening is in the high thirties. His value threshold on FanDuel requires right around 38 FanDuel points and on DraftKings it’s a little higher (40). We think he approaches those thresholds on both sites this evening and is a strong cash game play due to his elevated floor.
Value Plays:
Thaddeus Young (BKN) – Young’s projection is one that gives us fits today. Houston ranks 30th in defensive efficiency against opposing power forwards but their lineups with Capela and Howard playing together should be more effective. It’s a smaller sample size to evaluate so we’re not comfortable drawing conclusions yet, but bumping Young’s baseline efficiency based on season long struggles from Houston’s frontcourt seems premature. We believe Young is fairly priced on most sites but getting towards the expensive end of his baseline range. He can certainly outperform the baseline efficiency in this matchup against the Rockets, but we’re price aware when investing in Thad. On FanDuel at $6,800, he has a value threshold of 32-33 points, which we’re comfortable with a small boost in efficiency he can hit (averaging 30.5 FanDuel points per game on the season), but on DraftKings our target increases to 36 and he’s more of a secondary value play.
Additional power forward notes: Zach Randolph (MEM) is the other secondary value industry wide. His price appears low at first glance but Randolph’s statistical profile is showing signs of deterioration. He’s drawing the fewest fouls of his career and his rebound rate is the lowest it’s been in 10 years. The Grizzlies have also pulled back on his minutes a bit. As a result, he’s fairly priced for a new baseline and the matchup with Oklahoma City isn’t particularly great (eighth against power forwards in defensive efficiency). Kenneth Faried (DEN) is the best tournament target at the position. The matchup with Orlando isn’t great for his best skill (Orlando ranks 10th in rebounding rate) but his price is down after playing modest minutes the last three games. If Faried gets back into the starting lineup, we’d consider him a high upside tournament target given how productive he’s been of late in the bench role.
Center - Our featured site for the center position is DraftKings
Top Play:
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) – Cousins’ price tag has come down a bit as he’s played terribly of late. He’s been too content to hang around the perimeter and at times he’s looked like he’s playing through an assortment of injuries. The Jazz frontcourt is a difficult matchup but less difficult with Gobert out. Of all the top options Cousins is the easiest fade which will make him low owned in tournaments. We would not recommend him in cash games but the low ownership earns some slight tournament appeal.
Value Play:
Brook Lopez (BKN)/Dwight Howard (HOU) – These two square off against one another and both teams rank in the bottom third of defensive efficiency against opposing frontcourts. Lopez has a slightly stronger and more stable projection since his field goal attempts don’t vary, so we prefer Lopez where priced similarly. Both are underpriced on DraftKings where the value thresholds for Howard sit around 36 (averaging 36.6 DraftKings points per game) and 38.5 for Lopez (averaging 37.8). On sites where Howard is discounted, we like him a bit more as the gap in projection between the two players is small.
Additional center notes: Nikola Vucevic (ORL) carries a similar price tag on DraftKings to Lopez and Howard but is priced meaningfully lower on FanDuel. We’d consider him a tournament option where priced similarly to Lopez and Howard but a solid cash game target where the price is down. Denver ranks 15th in rebounding rate and 18th in defensive efficiency against opposing centers. It’s a plus matchup for Vucevic and Denver has been more willing to play big with Gary Harris injured and their frontcourt largely healthy again. Marc Gasol (MEM) projects a bit below Lopez and Howard and the matchup with Oklahoma City (sixth in defensive efficiency against opposing frontcourts and first in rebounding rate) makes him a better option for tournaments hoping to capture low ownership, rather than cash games. Steven Adams (OKC) is priced as a punt on DraftKings and with few cheap options that are intriguing we’d consider him an acceptable form of salary relief. He should see a slight boost in minutes against the Grizzlies big frontcourt.
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