Daily Fantasy Rundown – December 2 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Stephen Curry (GS) – Curry’s the top play and a secondary tournament option on DraftKings where the studs at $10k and above are priced to hit value, if not exceed it routinely. However, we’re not high on Curry from a value perspective. He’ll still get minutes in close games, but any blowouts will see him around 30 minutes
Next in line:
John Wall (WAS) – While it was nice to see Wall breakout in a big way last night following a prolonged slump, his value today has to do with pricing and matchup, not his DraftKings output from last night. At $8,000, Wall’s salary is very close to its nadir. Don’t expect to be able to use him at a lower salary again this season. Since the start of last season, Wall is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, which puts him on top his DraftKings value threshold (40 DK points) on average in 33 minutes. He’s averaging 33.5 minutes. Throw in the pace of these two teams (fourth and 13th) and the Lakers 27th ranked defensive efficiency against point guards (including allowing the most assists per 48 minutes to the position), and Wall is a very strong candidate to pay off his price tag tonight. At a point guard position that lacks clear cut values following Wall, we’ll be building rosters around him on most sites this evening.
Value Plays:
Derrick Rose (CHI) – If both Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks are out tonight, Rose is a very solid value at a fair price across the industry. His minutes should be boosted by about two to three with the team thin at point guard, which right away makes him a decent price play. Additionally, the matchup against Denver is very favorable. The Nuggets are 29th in defensive efficiency against the point guard position. Rose has had a tough time as the pick-n-roll ball handler this year (34th percentile in points per possession) and in isolation situations (39th percentile), but the Nuggets are the eighth worst team at defending the pick-n-roll ball handler and by far the worst team at defending isolation play types.
Kemba Walker (CHA) – Walker is a bit risky at his price point in a matchup against a strong defensive efficiency team (the Warriors) and facing a likely reduction in assists with Al Jefferson out. However, his upside is also heightened. The Warriors play at a very fast pace, which will increase possessions for Walker, and the reduction in assist rate has a chance to be more than offset by an increase in usage rate. Since the start of last season, Walker has a 28.9 usage rate in games without Al Jefferson, a large boost from the 25 mark with Jefferson. A final tally in Walker’s corner are his home/road splits; for his career, Walker averages 5.1 more DraftKings points per game at home. To summarize – the situation gives Walker phenomenal upside, but there are risks at the price (efficiency, blowout risk). He’s a secondary value for cash games and a phenomenal tournament target. Note that backup point guard Jeremy Lin may be out for the Hornets.
Additional point guard notes: The value plays are a bit muddled following John Wall, and additional alternatives to Rose/Walker from a per dollar perspective are Kyle Lowry (TOR) (safe) and Reggie Jackson (DET) (upside). Jackson plays for a Pistons team that frequently runs pick-n-roll ball handler play types, which Phoenix is worst in the league at defending from a points per possession standpoint. Additionally, Jackson is playing way up in pace so we like him a lot in tournaments. Brandon Knight (PHX) is a tournament option in that same game, but he will be matchup up against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (a good on the ball defender), and his price point is at its peak around the industry. Secondary cash game options below the average cost of a roster spot are Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) (high volume for his price but inefficient and in a tough matchup) and Patrick Beverley (HOU) (very cheap considering minutes rise and a great matchup; however, low usage rate doesn’t give him much of a floor).
Shooting Guard – Our featured site for the shooting guard position is FanDuel
Top Play:
James Harden (HOU) – Harden is one of the studs we’re targeting today, especially on FanDuel where pricing is a bit looser and you are forced to play two shooting guards. This is an excellent game environment as the total of 212 here is the highest on the night, and the four point spread is the second lowest. Harden leads the entire NBA in isolation play types and is in the 65th percentile in points per possession on them. That meshes fairly well against a New Orleans team that is attacked in that manner with the sixth highest frequency in the league and rate below average in terms of points per possessions allowed on that play type (37.9 percentile). From a more macro perspective, the Hornets simply have a bad defense, ranking dead last in team defensive efficiency. Between the matchup and Harden’s huge minutes totals (leads the league with 39.7 minutes per game), he’s a safe option if allocating that much money to a single player.
Next in line:
At their respective price points, both Jimmy Butler (CHI) and Bradley Beal (WAS) are safe options if you can’t quite afford Harden. Butler, even under a new coach, consistently sees high minutes totals (averaging 36.9) and has a phenomenal matchup against a Denver that is 25th in team defensive efficiency and 29th specifically against shooting guards. Beal’s matchup should boost him from both a volume (Lakers are above average in pace) and efficiency (22nd against shooting guards) perspective. Do note that Jimmy Butler is playing through an ongoing heel injury, which could result in fewer minutes if the game turns into a blowout.
Cheap Plays:
There really isn’t a single strong shooting guard value we like as an alternative or complementary play to James Harden. As a result, it’s not a bad position to finish your roster with and use price to base your decision. If you end up needing an option below the average cost of a roster spot, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET) (up tempo opponent, consistently high minutes) and OJ Mayo (MIL) (bad matchup and a risky profile but you’re getting a lot of minutes for almost minimum price) are the two best options. On sites where Manu Ginobili (SA) is a bit cheaper, he’s generally around 20 Fantasy points, although the cap on his minutes limits upside. Tyreke Evans (NO) is a tournament option on DraftKings where he’s shooting guard eligible and has a price near the average cost of a roster spot. In his season debut last night, he immediately flashed his immense upside, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him minutes wise as he’s right away thrust into a back to back set (after blowing through his minutes “limit” the night before).
Additional shooting guard notes: Cheap tournament options include Rodney Stuckey (IND) and Jeremy Lamb (CHA) (could emerge as a cash option if Jeremy Lin is out).
Small Forward – Our featured site for the small forward position is DraftKings
Top Play:
The three top small forward options that rank similarly in our model are Paul Geroge (IND), Kawhi Leonard (SA), and Carmelo Anthony (NYK). George has a high ceiling against a Clippers team that historically has struggled with wing players like George. In fact, George has averaged 50.9 DraftKings points in four games against the Clippers the past few seasons. However, with George’s price meaningfully higher than Leonard and Kawhi plus the Clippers improving against small forwards thus far this season, he’s only a secondary tournament option. Leonard is a secondary value as the second most expensive player here. He’s taken a huge step forward (again) this season (career highs in minutes, PER, usage rate) and should put up a fine line against a Milwaukee team that has slipped defensively from a year ago. He’s the safest of the three top small forward options (relative to price). We’re most interested in Carmelo Anthony (NYK) due to the point per dollar upside in a dream matchup against the Sixers, especially on FanDuel (looser pricing, two small forward requirement). Philadelphia is 27th in defensive efficiency against small forwards and 10th in the league in pace. Ultimately, though, on a night with a lot of high priced players we’re interested in, you shouldn’t be compelled to pay up for a small forward if it’s forcing you to make a lot of sacrifices elsewhere. This is a decent position to grab some cap relief at, particularly on DraftKings.
Punt Play:
Jared Dudley (WAS) – On a night with a lot of fun value plays above the average cost of a roster spot, you’ll need a couple of reliable punt plays. Dudley is someone we were okay with but not thrilled about last night. He ended up with an acceptable 19 DraftKings points. More importantly, even in a matchup we were worried about, he continued to start and play big minutes (32). He has now started and played 30 minutes in at least three games. With a much easier matchup on tap tonight against the Lakers, Dudley’s floor is high enough to utilize him in all formats (assuming Nene Hilario and Drew Gooden remain out). Dudley isn’t an efficient player (0.7 DraftKings points per minute for his career), so he can be faded in tournaments if you believe he’ll be a high-owned punt. Additionally, if Hilario returns to action, Dudley would not be viable since his value is entirely contingent upon the safety of the minutes attached to that starting role (30).
Additional small forward notes: On DraftKings, we’re unwilling to pay the astronomical rising price for Robert Covington (15 percent premium) in cash games. The matchup is much worse than yesterday and his steal rate is unsustainable. On sites where he’s priced in line or below the average cost of a roster spot, keep deploying him. On DraftKings the best mid-tier value play alternative is Marcus Morris (DET), but be aware he’s questionable (tentatively expected to play) after taking a fall in the team’s last game. If going cheap at small forward but finding yourself with a bit of extra cap room to upgrade Dudley, the safe option to do that with is Thabo Sefolosha (ATL). He’s had his minutes limit lifted and is now playing around 30 minutes a game. He’s been a slightly better per minute performer than Dudley this season (0.8 DraftKings points), but that’s admittedly a bit inflated by a shooting percentage that may not be sustainable. Mirza Teletovic (PHX) is a tournament punt option to pivot off of Jared Dudley on DraftKings. He doesn’t have the safety in minutes that Dudley has, but Teletovic has been very consistent, playing between 18 and 24 minutes in seven straight contests and launching at least four three-point attempts in each of those contests (average of 6.14). Stanley Johnson (DET) is another cheap tournament play, who we like against an up tempo opponent, but keep in mind there is virtually no floor here.
Power Forward – Our featured site for the power forward position is FanDuel
Top Play:
Anthony Davis (NO) – From a per dollar perspective, Davis is a similar value, perhaps even better, than James Harden. However, if you’re comparing the two studs from a roster construction standpoint, we’re prioritizing Harden in cash games since he comes with less opportunity cost. The reason Davis is the highest raw projected scorer on the night is a combination of three things. For starters, only Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins are averaging more than Anthony Davis’ 1.3 FanDuel points per minute since the start of last season. Secondly, Davis has been healthy (knock on wood) after dealing with a hip injury from the beginning to the middle of November. He’s played at least 39 minutes in five of six games since leaving the Denver game early on November 17th. Finally, the matchup is phenomenal. Houston is an up tempo team that is struggling defensively, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency against opposing bigs. Davis isn’t a core play due to opportunity cost and admittedly being a bit gun-shy on him when it’s avoidable in cash games, but if we’re looking at him in a vacuum, from a mathematical perspective, he’s the top raw projected scorer on the evening and likely a top 10 per dollar value as well.
Value Plays:
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK) – While Porzingis’ price is on the rise, so is the stud rookie’s playing time. The team wanted to keep his minutes sub-30 early on, but over is last five games, Porzingis has played 36 minutes or more in regulation in four of them. The one he did not was a big blowout loss to the Heat. With this rise in playing time, Porzingis can combat his rising price tag, especially in a matchup against Philadelphia. Not only are the 76ers a strong macro matchup for Porzingis (Sixers are 10th in pace, 20th in defensive efficiency, and 27th in team rebounding rate), but their weaknesses line up well against Porzingis’ strengths. Specifically, the Sixers are 26th in defensive efficiency against power forwards, allowing the most rebounds and fourth most blocks to the position (per 48 minutes). That’s perfect for Porzingis, who averages 11.9 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes. Look for him to double-double tonight and tally close to 10 Fantasy points via defensive statistics. The decision to use Porzingis on FanDuel (eight percent premium) is much easier than it is on DraftKings (26 percent premium). Teammate Kevin Seraphin played a season high 32 minutes last game and received positive comments from Coach Derek Fisher about getting more comfortable. At minimum or near minimum pricing around the industry he’s definitely worth a look in tournaments. On stricter pricing sites, he’s a risky cash option.
Julius Randle (LAL) – Randle is more of a site-specific value play than Porzingis. He’s only a secondary value where priced above the average cost of a roster spot, but on FanDuel he comes at a 11.5 percent discount. At that pricing he’s a high floor option relative to his cost. The Lakers face a Wizards team that ranks fourth in the NBA in pace, which should increase possessions and lead to more Fantasy point opportunities. Additionally, the Wizards rank 29th in defensive efficiency against power forwards. Against a thin Washington frontline, Randle should be in line for his third straight double-double.
Additional power forward notes: Secondary values on FanDuel include Ryan Anderson (NO) (terrific matchup and hovering around the average cost of a roster spot) and Marvin Williams (CHA) (should have very solid playing time due to a combination of Al Jefferson being out and a matchup against the Warriors that will encourage small ball lineups). Industry wide tournament options include Draymond Green (GS) and Cody Zeller (CHA) (will likely draw the start at center).
Center - Our featured site for the center position is DraftKings
Top Play:
Andre Drummond (DET) – We consistently hammer home on DraftKings how the players around that $10,000 range seem to be priced to exceed their value threshold by a few points. Systemically, this isn’t the case at any other price points on the site. As a result, it’s always a good idea to try and find the right two guys at this price level to build around on most nights. The reason Drummond is so appealing, is he is priced to exceed his value threshold by 3.8 DraftKings points (averages 47.8, threshold is 44), but at $9,000 he’s around $1,000 cheaper than most of the studs that come with this built in discount. As a result, you’re getting exposure to an underpriced high-end stud, but get a bit more flexibility to fit in a roster around him. Tonight he faces an up tempo Suns team that will likely be without Tyson Chandler, who has had a very strong influence on the team’s good defensive efficiency against centers. Drummond’s upside is basically unfathomable if Chandler is out. Center is flooded today on DraftKings, so it’s a good night to consider playing a second center in your utility spot.
Value Plays:
Dwight Howard (HOU) – The Rockets have been more aggressive with Howard’s minutes recently and they get an island game today. He played 31 and 30 minutes on the two ends of a back to back set (despite a minutes “limit” of 25) and had played 36, 40, 36, and 40 minutes in the four games prior to the back to back set. With that in mind, we’re looking for a minutes total somewhere in the mid 30s tonight. That makes him very underpriced at $7,100 on DraftKings. On average he will hit his value threshold in 33 minutes. Since we both like him to exceed that number and see an increase in his per minute production due to matchup, he’s on our radar in all formats. Howard takes on a Pelicans frontcourt that was just destroyed by Marc Gasol and currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency against opposing centers.
Alex Len (PHX) – Len is actually someone you could fade in tournaments as the ownership will be sky high due to recency bias, and he’s not risk free when you consider that the playing time last night (35 minutes) was highly correlated to both him staying out of foul trouble (very poor career foul history) and simply playing really well. On an off night, that correlation could work the other way and leave Len with a low 20s minutes total. Still, with Tyson Chandler doubtful, Len should draw his third straight start and has played 28 and 35 minutes in back to back games. At 0.9 DraftKings points per minute and a near minimum price tag, this makes him a necessary evil in cash games on stricter pricing sites such as DraftKings, especially since their scoring system/pricing really encourages a studs and duds approach. All in all, we like Len a lot at this price if starting, but we’re not letting last night’s performance move us away from realistic expectations.
Additional center notes: Bismack Biyombo’s (TOR) price tag has risen aggressively on DraftKings, but he’s viable in all formats on FanDuel where he’s still nearly minimum price. Biyombo has played 30-plus minutes in four straight games with Valanciunas out. Al Horford (ATL) and Pau Gasol (CHI) are really safe options at the center position, but we feel like their profit potential is lower than the written up recommendations (of course we felt that wasy about Marc Gasol yesterday too!). Industry wide tournament options include Marcin Gortat (WAS) (both the matchup and Washington’s small ball numbers should ensure a healthy amount of rebounds), Clint Capela (HOU) (playing time uncertainty but has been a phenomenal per minute contributor this season) and DeAndre Jordan (LAC) (should take advantage of a weak rebounding Pacers team).
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