August 19 MLB DFS: Don’t Doubt Our Commitment To Sparkle Motion
00:40 Starting Pitchers
09:22 Catchers
10:53 First Base
12:52 Second Base
15:20 Shortstops
18:01 Third Base
20:41 Outfield
24:28 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks
HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | WELL-HIT RATINGS | DAILY LINEUPS (NEW) | HITTER MODEL (BETA)
August 19 MLB DFS PRO TIP
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Tier One
1) Cole Hamels (TEX)
2) Johnny Cueto (SF)
3) Zack Greinke (ARI)
Tier Two
4) Adam Wainwright (STL)
5) Gerrit Cole (PIT)
6) Tanner Roark (WAS)
Tier Three
7) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)
8) Julio Teheran (ATL)
9) Trevor Bauer (CLE)
10) Bud Norris (LAD)
Our tier one starting pitchers all rank very similarly, but price aside Cole Hamels (TEX) is our favorite getting a very positive park shift pitching in a weather controlled pitcher’s park in Tampa Bay. The Rays strike out a ton against LHP (25.3 percent on the season) and have lost some pop in that split with the trades of Steve Pearce and Brandon Guyer. On FanDuel where Hamels is slightly less expensive than the two other tier one starting pitchers, he’s our preferred option in cash games. On DraftKings, Zack Greinke (ARI) is so discounted that he’s the best value of the bunch. In his second start back from the DL last time out, Greinke was absolutely lit up. However, he goes from one of the worst matchups possible (Red Sox in Boston) to one of the best (Padres in San Diego). It’s rare to get a pitcher of this talent (when going right) at sub-10k price tag on DraftKings in a matchup like this, so we’re taking the risk even though there are some post DL concerns.
One of the toughest pitchers to rank is Adam Wainwright (STL). The matchup is phenomenal as the Phillies are 28th in wRC+ against RHP with a middle of the road K rate. It’s a slam dunk play based on what ZiPS sees (3.32 ERA), but we’re a bit more hesitant. Wainwright in August (5.46 xFIP) is looking much more like the pitcher he was in the beginning of the season (sub 17% K rates first two months, 5.49 April xFIP) than the one he was the previous two months (sub-3.50 xFIP, 22-plus K percentages). To make matters more difficult, he’s priced in such a manner that you can’t simply ignore him, offering a big discount off of the tier one starting pitchers. It looks to be worth the risk on DraftKings because he’s so cheap, but on FanDuel you wouldn’t be crazy to simply lock in a bit more safety with a tier one option.
If you did want to eschew the Wainwright mix on DraftKings, the move would likely be for Gerrit Cole (PIT) who is a Vegas darling (-160, 3.3 IRTA) at home against the Marlins. Cole’s had his own issues this season (disappointing K rate) and recently (hasn’t completed six innings in three straight starts, 9 ERs over the past two).
In tournaments, you could make a play on Masahiro Tanaka’s (NYY) recent K rate spike or look to go very cheap on Bud Norris (LAD) (relatively weak opposing lineup but tough park; cheap tag will help you get lots of bats in). Jose Berrios (MIN) also deserves a look, speculating on raw talent and picking on the Royals (dead last in wRC+ last 30 days).
Catcher Rankings
1) Stephen Vogt (OAK)
2) Victor Martinez (DET)
3) Brian McCann (NYY)
4) Buster Posey (SF)
5) Willson Contreras (CHC)
The catcher position is pretty straightforward in cash games as Stephen Vogt (OAK) rates far and away as the best value play. He gets a very good lineup spot (likely third) on the road (huge park shift at US Cellular Field) in a great splits matchup (James Shields has allowed a .379 wOBA and .221 ISO to LHBs since 2015. You can go a few different routes in tournaments, most notably Brian McCann (NYY) (HR upside against Jered Weaver) or Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (great matchup, great park, extremely hot with a 6.20 well-hit rating over the last two weeks). The overall catcher rankings are quite tight and you could make a case that Grandal deserves to be ranked as high as second despite just missing our listed top five.
First Base Rankings
1) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
2) David Ortiz (BOS)
3) Chris Davis (BAL)
4) Joey Votto (STL)
5) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)
First base is absolutely stacked as you might suspect on a night with a full slate of games. You really can’t go wrong with anyone in our top five options, but roster construction probably forces you to be a bit price conscious, otherwise we’d simply lock in Anthony Rizzo (CHC) in Coors, despite facing a solid LHP. Chris Davis (BAL) is priced too low around the industry, and he’s out of that long slump, now possessing a 0.00 delta in well-hit rating over the last two weeks. He faces a solid but far from invincible RHP in Collin McHugh. Supplementing Davis as value plays are David Ortiz (BOS) on FanDuel (Fulmer is a solid pitcher overall but has been very lucky against LHBs in terms of BABIP and HR/FB rate given a normal hard minus soft hit rate) and Miguel Cabrera (DET) on DraftKings (another matchup that’s mostly neutral and has more to do with the hitter’s skills at a fair price).
Second Base Rankings
1a) Ben Zobrist (CHC)
1b) Jose Altuve (HOU)
3) Matt Carpenter (STL)
4) Daniel Murphy (WAS)
5) Robinson Cano (SEA)
With the Cubs mostly priced correctly around the industry, it’s not necessarily easy to get Coors Field exposure, but second base is a spot you can. There’s not much opportunity cost at the mid to mid-low price levels. So if paying up it seems natural to opt for the cleanup Twitter on the team in Coors Field with the highest team total (5.7, no team is over 5). Say hello to Ben Zobrist (CHC). The rest of the top five are all in good spots, so it’s completely fine to diversify in tournaments, but we do like paying up here, even in that format. Matt Carpenter (STL) may be the best option in tournaments as you balance upside and ownership, suspecting people will incorrectly pass on him simply because it’s a L/L matchup and other alternatives hold the platoon edge.
Shortstop Rankings
1) Carlos Correa (HOU)
2) Manny Machado (BAL) (where eligible)
3) Corey Seager (LAD)
4) Francisco Lindor (CLE)
5) Addison Russell (CHC)
We actually have a really stacked shortstop position as Correa-Seager-Lindor-Russell are all in phenomenal spots, and Machado always deserves love at home against non-elite pitching. The biggest problem of course is macro opportunity cost – paying up here may cost you Coors elsewhere. So while the top five options are all pretty decent values in a vacuum (especially 1-3 and love Corey Seager (LAD) in particular in tournaments), you may need to go cheaper with our go to puntish priced guy in Orlando Arcia (MIL). While he doesn’t pop as a value in our model, when you compare him to shortstops of a similar price he’s clearly the best option.
Third Base Rankings
1) Kris Bryant (CHC)
2) Matt Carpenter (STL)
3) Manny Machado (BAL)
4) Justin Turner (LAD)
5) Josh Donaldson (TOR)
Only Bryce Harper rates higher in our model than Kris Bryant (CHC), and given Coors as a tiebreaker along with more opportunity cost in the outfield, Bryant becomes the biggest priority of expensive options. His offensive game is made for Coors Field (41.5 hard hit rate, 0.70 GB/FB ratio). The biggest challenge to Bryant as a cash game option comes on FanDuel where Justin Turner (LAD) is simply too cheap at $3,500. Turner is actually better against same handed pitching (.396 wOBA, .203 ISO against RHP since 2014) and Tim Adleman (Steamer projected 4.48 ERA and 1.33 HR/9)/the Reds bullpen (4.81 xFIP) are terrible.
Outfield Rankings
1) Bryce Harper (WAS)
2) Kris Bryant (CHC) (where eligible)
3) Dexter Fowler (CHC)
4) Mike Trout (LAA)
5) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
6) Billy Hamilton (CIN)
7) Tommy Pham (STL)
8) George Springer (HOU)
9) Charlie Blackmon (COL)
10) Stephen Piscotty (STL)
11) Rajai Davis (CLE)
12) Josh Reddick (LAD)
13) Starling Marte (PIT)
14) Mookie Betts (BOS)
15) Coco Crisp (OAK) (if leading off)
Bryce Harper (WAS) is our top rated hitter. He’s finally hitting the ball well, and Julio Teheran has wide splits (.338 wOBA, .185 ISO allowed to LHBs for his career). He’s followed closely by Dexter Fowler (CHC) who will be leading off the Cubs, the clear top offense (salary aside). However, the outfield position is pretty flooded with value in the mid-tier, something that’s a rare occurrence in the infield. It’s high upside value as well. It’s easier to realize this value on FanDuel where you get somewhat silly price tags on guys like Stephen Piscotty/Tommy Pham (STL) (platoon edge, positive park shift, and most importantly – Adam Morgan is horrible), Rajai Davis (CLE) (love him against LHP, especially wild ones; Cleveland is tied for second highest team total), Josh Reddick (LAD) (we think the model is probably selling the Dodgers bats a little short), and Billy Hamilton (CIN) (platoon edge at home versus a pitcher with poor splits and a catcher who is slightly below average at throwing out base runners). On DraftKings we get the same strong options for the most part, but all are priced more aggressive relatively speaking. So, it’s feasible to pick and chose from that mid-tier rather than pounding away at it, which would enable you to grab one of the top flight options and a cheaper complementary player. We’re keeping an eye on where Franklin Gutierrez (SEA) hits (.396 wOBA, .262 ISO against LHP since 2014), as the Mariners will face LHP Brent Suter. Suter is making his MLB debut, and there’s nothing impressive about his MiLB track record.
Stack Rankings
Tier One
1) Chicago Cubs
Tier Two
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) St. Louis Cardinals
Tier Four
4) Colorado Rockies
5) Cleveland Indians
6) Oakland Athletics
You won’t be able to stack the Cubs in cash games but they rate so clearly ahead of the other teams in our model that you’ll want to be conscious of squeezing in at least a couple bats somewhere. The Dodgers feel a little shortchanged in terms of individual value ratings, so we don’t mind forcing some exposure there, even if it means straying from the model a touch. We love them as a tournament option, and the same goes for the Cardinals. It’s generally wise to look to the next best stacks in tournaments on Coors Field nights.
In the fourth tier, our favorite option in tournaments is the Oakland Athletics. Depending on the lineup, you’ll be able to stack them for a reasonable cost, and the upside is huge given the massive park shift and the amount of power that James Shields allows (1.77 HR/9 this season).
Additional Tournament Stacks
-Seattle Mariners (Suter has a FIP of 3.45 or worse at AA or higher since 2013)
-Houston Astros (a high event team that feels like they’re getting lost in the shuffle, even though their best hitters are all RHBs who will hold the platoon edge in a good hitter’s park on the road against the underwhelming Wade Miley)
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