Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – April 3rd, 2015
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Point Guard
Top Play:
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Westbrook’s is the top option at point guard, but he’s completely unnecessary in cash games on Friday. He draws a tough matchup against a strong Memphis defense and the point guard position is loaded. I think this will represent a consensus opinion which gives Westbrook some tournament appeal as a potentially low owned option with an 80 point ceiling.
Value Plays:
Jeremy Lin/Jordan Clarkson (LAL) – With Wayne Ellington out for the season, the Lakers are down to three healthy guards on the roster. As a result, we think it’s likely Clarkson and Lin approach 35 minutes on Friday. The matchup with the Blazers is favorable for whoever is operating as the primary point guard. Portland ranks 20th in defensive efficiency against point guards and their defense is designed to funnel opportunities to point guards, specifically with mid-range jump shots. The two players alternate time at the position which makes it more difficult to hone in on one play. Lin is the better value around the industry as Clarkson’s tremendous recent play has moved his price tag dramatically. On sites that are slower to adjust, and the gap is narrower, I think Clarkson is the better option. The Lakers have more invested in developing Clarkson and he’s posted the slightly higher usage rate over the last five games (23 percent vs. 21 percent).
George Hill (IND) – Late in the season there is an added emphasis in targeting teams that have something left to play for. Charlotte and Indiana are both chasing the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and they meet tonight. Charlotte ranks 17th in defensive efficiency against point guards, but like Portland, funnel a lot of opportunities to point guard shooters in the pick-and-roll. With Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles hampered, I believe Hill will see additional offensive responsibility. Hill’s value thresholds sit around 37-40 Fantasy points on most sites. He’s averaged just over a Fantasy point per minute this season and over the last five games, he’s averaged 36.2 minutes per game. The price point is ever so slightly discounted and the matchup is strong. I think the combination of security and upside makes Hill one of the stronger values at point guard tonight.
Tyreke Evans (NO)/Elfrid Payton (ORL) – These two rank as the next best options at a deep point guard position and in most cases I’d let price dictate a decision between them. Evans has something to play for with the Pelicans one game back in the loss column from Oklahoma City. He’s on the road, where he’s struggled most of the season, but he gets a strong matchup with the Kings. Sacramento ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 27th in overall defensive efficiency. Of games in single digit spreads, the Pelicans have the highest team total tonight (105.75) and the third highest team total overall. Evans is a way to get exposure to that offensive upside at a reasonable price point. Payton has averaged 34 Fantasy points per game since the beginning of March. He faces a Timberwolves defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 30th in overall defensive efficiency. Of all the point guards listed, I think Payton is among the safest to deliver 30 Fantasy points (he and Hill would rate as the safest for me), but the price point on most sites requires more. If Rubio is out, the matchup improves and I think there is a good argument if you can afford the extra dollars to spend on Payton’s security over Evans upside, but median projections have the price point as the decider between the two.
Additional point guard notes: Reggie Jackson (DET) would surge ahead of Evans and Payton as a preferred target if Greg Monroe is ruled out and we get confirmation Jackson is beyond the illness that limited him earlier in the week. The Bulls are an elite matchup for opposing point guards. They rank 24th in defensive efficiency against the position but have stumbled down those rankings ever since Rose’s injury. With Kirk Hinrich out, they’re short another viable point guard defender. Without Monroe, Jackson has averaged 19.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 11 assists in nine games. Deron Williams (BKN) has a nice price point and something to play for with Brooklyn trying to hold onto a playoff spot. He’s also looked a bit healthier of late as Brooklyn has surged and the matchup with Toronto (26th in defensive efficiency) is strong. He’s a fine secondary value at a deep position. On sites that Damian Lillard (POR) is in the same range as Payton and Hill, he earns similar consideration. The blowout risk along with a higher price point is the only thing pushing him down my list of preferences. He’s got a great matchup with the Lakers. Greivis Vasquez (TOR) has seen his price correct for Kyle Lowry’s absence, but on FanDuel he’s still hovering around the minimum. As long as Lowry is out, that is a fine price point to attack. I think point guard is so deep that you don’t necessarily need additional “tournament options” to fill out tournament lineups. Ownership levels are likely spread among this group enough. John Wall (WAS) has a high upside for his price tag but blowout concerns (especially on the front end of a back-to-back) will push him down preferred lists. If the game remains close, his upside warrants tournament consideration.
Shooting Guard
Top Play:
Jimmy Butler (CHI) – The injury to Kirk Hinrich will keep Butler’s minutes elevated. Detroit ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency against shooting guards and Butler’s usage rate remains elevated without Rose around. In his last five games, his usage rate has hovered around 24 percent (21.7 percent on the season). The price point for Butler isn’t particularly compelling but shooting guard is a position that lacks elite value on Friday. The stability in his floor makes him a viable play.
Next in line:
DeMar DeRozan (TOR)/Victor Oladipo (ORL) – These two project neck-and-neck and like the Evans/Payton decision I think it ultimately comes down to price point. Both Brooklyn and Minnesota rank in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency against shooting guards and both games project as competitive in high scoring environments. There isn’t a ton of “value” in either player’s price tag, but the position as a whole lacks compelling options. On sites with multiple position eligibility, point guards with shooting guard eligibility are preferred plays. On sites with multiple shooting guard spots to fill, I think the security of Butler, DeRozan, or Oladipo for one of those spots makes sense.
Additional shooting guard notes: The rest of the position projects poorly as a whole. Joe Johnson (BKN) projects as the safest mid-tier option but his price tag has risen around the industry. If not paying for the consistency of Butler, DeRozan, and Oladipo, I think the best approach to the position is probably a punt. Courtney Lee (MEM) looks like the best available punt. His minutes should get a small bump with Tony Allen listed as doubtful, and the frenetic pace Oklahoma City plays at should allow Lee more opportunities. The Thunder rank in the Top five of spot up opportunities allowed in the league, which is where Lee earns most of his value. Jabari Brown (LAL) is another volatile punt option that should see a boost in minutes with Wayne Ellington sidelined. He’s the third guard the Lakers have that is healthy. Other names just above the minimum that look like adequate options to keep cost down and have a shot at approaching their value thresholds include: Markel Brown (BKN) and Arron Afflalo (POR). There are also some site specific opportunities like O.J. Mayo (MIL) on DraftKings or Dion Waiters (OKC) on FanDuel. Ricky Ledo (NYK) is an interesting tournament punt for the Knicks. He’s played 26 minutes or more in three of the last four games and in a projected blowout could accrue that kind of playing time again.
Small Forward
Top Play:
Kawhi Leonard (SA) – Kawhi comes with a healthy dose of blowout risk (Spurs favored by 13), but ranks as our top option at the small forward position. The price point on Kawhi gives him a chance to reach value even in limited minutes. In March, Leonard averaged 1.13 Fantasy points per minute and his value threshold on most sites is around 40 Fantasy points. The matchup with Denver should help improve that efficiency. The Nuggets rank 27th in defensive efficiency against small forwards and 24th in overall defensive efficiency. If we bump Leonard up to 1.2 Fantasy points per minute, we need roughly 33 minutes for Leonard to reach value. This is where projecting him in a blowout gets tricky. The Spurs posted a plus 13.1 point differential margin in March and Leonard averaged 33.4 minutes per game. However, of late he’s played 21, 23, and 27 minutes in blowout wins. Those all happened to come on the second night of a back-to-back. In games with margins of 27, 26, 19, and 18 without a back-to-back involved, Leonard averaged 29.5 minutes per game. With the Spurs surrounded by off days, I think his range of minutes is likely closer to 27-31, regardless of score. As a result, I’m a bit more confident deploying Leonard on sites the price is down.
Value Play:
Omri Casspi (SAC) – In seven games without Rudy Gay this season, Casspi has averaged 11 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 0.9 steals in 29 minutes per game. The production equates to a little less than 20 Fantasy points a game which falls shy of the 23-26 Fantasy point threshold he has on most sites. A matchup with the Pelicans (25th in defensive efficiency against small forwards) should improve Casspi’s efficiency and I think a fair projection puts him closer to 30-32 minutes than the 29 he’s received in the past. Casspi played 38 minutes against Houston on Wednesday which was partly the result of his strong performance and Houston’s willingness to play small. On the season Casspi averages a little over 0.70 Fantasy points per minute which would require 35 minutes to hit his value thresholds. At a thin small forward position, he looks like the highest probability option to approach those value thresholds.
Tobias Harris (ORL) – The Orlando-Minnesota game features two of the weaker defenses in the league and two of the tighter rotations of late. It’s a good place to target Fantasy value this evening. Harris has a price point that is slightly discounted and he’s played 36 or more minutes in his three games since returning from an injury. Minnesota ranks 29th in defensive efficiency against small forwards, providing a matchup that should improve his efficiency.
Additional small forward notes: If Paul Pierce is out again, Otto Porter (WAS) would emerge as a fine punt play at the position. Porter played heavy minutes (38) in a blowout win over the 76ers so he appears less impacted by game scenario. Cleanthony Early (NYK) has seen a growing role off the bench for the Knicks. The production is volatile but a minimum price tag gives him a shot at approaching value thresholds. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) and Khris Middleton (MIL) are my favored tournament plays at the wing position. Boston’s tempo and small lineups should help both players’ minutes remain elevated. Avery Bradley is the best wing defender the Celtics have and he’s giving up some size to both options. Nicolas Batum (POR) has a great matchup with the Lakers, but he’s fully priced and comes with some blowout risk. I’d rather take my chances on some higher usage Blazers at full price, if attacking the Lakers weak defense. Andrew Wiggins (MIN) has a great matchup with the Magic who rank 30th in defensive efficiency against small forwards, but I’m concerned about the return of Kevin Martin. Wiggins’ usage rate with Martin on the floor this season is just 21.6 percent (24 percent with him off the floor). He’s a better tournament option in my opinion.
Power Forward
Top Play:
Anthony Davis (NO) – Davis played 35 minutes in Ryan Anderson’s first game back which is his average on the season in games Anderson has played. It’s a bit misleading though as Davis sat the last 3:25 of the game due to a blowout. I think Davis loses some value with Anderson back as the playing time likely settles closer to 37-40 rather than the 40-42 we’ve seen over the last month. This is important because Davis’ price tag has finally caught up to the surging performance. The matchup with the Kings is very favorable. Sacramento ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency against power forwards and they allow the most blocks per game in the league (6.3). Davis has the ability to out-perform his current price tag even if he loses a minute or two over the recent playing time. I don’t think he’s a must play this evening, but he looks like the best combination of safety and upside of any player in the field as the Pelicans try to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Next in line:
Pau Gasol (CHI) – Detroit ranks 26th in defensive efficiency against opposing frontcourts this season. We’ve harped on Gasol’s declining price point as a misleading discount because Gasol’s playing time had dropped in the second half of the season, but it’s finally come down too far. Gasol has averaged 1.14 Fantasy points per minute this season and his current value thresholds hover around 40-42 Fantasy points. With no efficiency boost due to matchup, Gasol would need 35-37 minutes to approach that target. He averaged 33 minutes in March. With the expected efficiency boost in this matchup, I think Gasol is one of the stronger bets to surpass his value threshold this evening and he comes with a very stable floor. He’s a foundational piece in cash game lineups.
LaMarcus Aldridge (POR) – Aldridge projects similarly to Gasol, but is priced a bit higher. The Lakers provide a similarly strong matchup (27th in defensive efficiency against opposing frontcourts) but Aldridge comes with a slightly more expensive tag and elevated blowout risk than Gasol. I like Aldridge, I simply prefer Gasol.
Value Plays:
Thaddeus Young (BKN) – Young has played 39 and 34 minutes in two games since returning from injury. He remains a touch underpriced for his increased role as a starter. On a day without many strong values emerging at power forward, I think Young has three things working for him: 1) price point 2) playing for something and 3) competitive environment. His value thresholds hover around 30 Fantasy points and on the season he averages 0.80 Fantasy points per minute. If he gets the 35-38 minutes we’re expecting, he should approach his value thresholds.
David West (IND) – He’s boring, but the matchup is favorable and the price tag won’t hurt you. Charlotte ranks 18th in defensive efficiency against power forwards and they’re starting a stretch four in Marvin Williams that should present a great post opportunity for West. West’s upside is around 30-35 Fantasy points, which isn’t far off his value threshold, but his probability of 25 or more Fantasy points is elevated in this matchup.
Additional power forward notes: Marvin Williams (CHA) will get another start but his price is on the rise and the matchup with Indiana (third in defensive efficiency against power forwards) isn’t favorable. Amir Johnson (TOR) went on a string of four consecutive games playing more than 30 minutes and then dipped down to 20 last game. His price point is favorable if he gets those minutes, but they’re volatile. Adreian Payne (MIN) has a great opportunity for bulk minutes in a favorable matchup against the Magic but his performance is very volatile and he’s very foul prone. I’d prefer him in tournaments.
Center
Top Play:
DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) – I think there is a really strong argument for Cousins as the top overall play on Friday’s slate. With Westbrook in a difficult matchup and Davis perhaps seeing a few less minutes with Ryan Anderson back, Cousins is right there. He also happens to come at a lower price point on most sites, which makes him arguably the strongest target of the three. On DraftKings, his price is laughably cheap and he’s an elite play. The matchup with New Orleans is average. They rank 12th in defensive efficiency against the center position and fifth in rebounding rate, but Cousins has terrorized them in three previous matchups, averaging 28.3 points, 16.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, two blocks, and 1.3 steals per game. My only concern with Cousins is the Kings recalling Sim Bhullar and potentially forcing him some minutes as a developmental player. On DraftKings, Cousins is a building block for lineups, but on one center sites I think the decision is a bit more difficult because of our top value option.
Value Play:
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) – Vucevic gets the Timberwolves who rank 30th in defensive efficiency against centers and 23rd in team rebounding rate. Without Gorgui Dieng, the Timberwolves are thin at the center position. Justin Hamilton is really their only true center and if he gets into any foul trouble, there isn’t anyone behind him. With a great price point and an elite matchup, Vucevic ranks as one of the better values industry wide.
Justin Hamilton (MIN) – Hamilton is the lone “cheap” option at the center position. The lack of depth at the position will force Hamilton into as many minutes as he can handle. On the season, he’s averaged 0.87 Fantasy points per minute, which gives him a good chance at 25-30 Fantasy points if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Additional center notes: Marc Gasol (MEM) is a bit underpriced and gets a great matchup with Enes Kanter. With Zach Randolph banged up a bit, I think Gasol is a viable alternative. Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) should see a slight bump in minutes against Brook Lopez. The matchup is solid and the price point is discounted given any expected bump in playing time. On a different night, he’d earn a full endorsement, but I think he’s a fine secondary value or elite tournament play on Friday. If Greg Monroe remains out, Andre Drummond (DET) will continue to carry tournament upside, but the depth at the center position makes him a bit less intriguing on Friday.
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