In London, home prices are soaring. In parts of north-east England, they have been falling since 2007 – and still are
Usman Saeed has given up investing in property. He believes that is yesterday's get-rich-quick scheme. Now he is investing in taxis. In fact, sitting on the sofa of his smartly decorated three-bedroom house on Hampstead Road, in Newcastle's rough-and-ready Benwell district, Saeed says he is going to sell the family home.
A driving instructor and father of two boys, aged six and four, Saeed, 37, has put the house on the market and plans to use the proceeds to buy cars to lease out to taxi drivers.
"This isn't London. London's a different world. There's no bubble here. I'll make more money by renting a house for us and investing in the cars," he says.
Saeed, a bright, quick-talking, second-generation Pakistani immigrant who attended Leicester University, has decorated his home in the neutral colours that estate agents favour. He and his wife, Rabbia, are clearly houseproud.
Yet, even with all the talk in the national press about a house price boom, Saeed is not optimistic about making a good sale. He bought his Victorian terraced home ("on the least shit end of the road") for £108,000 in 2010, put it on the market two weeks ago for £124,950 and, having had only one inquirer so far, has already dropped the price by £5,000. "The one lady who came really liked it and then saw the school at the back, and I never saw her again."
He also has a three-bedroom flat in Gateshead on the other side of the Tyne, which he lets. That's been on the market for a year and a half, but at £84,950, cut from his original asking price of £89,950, he simply can't find a buyer. "I don't even answer the estate agents' calls any more – all they want is for me to drop the price again."
As Saeed says, this isn't London. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, north-east England is the only part of the country that continues to see house prices drop. And that's been the case, give or take the odd month, since April 2007.
The institution predicts annual house price growth of only 1.8% in the region, at best, over the next few years. But the north-east is just the most extreme example of a country splitting in two: between London and the rest.
A homeowner in the capital could, on average, swap his one property for three if he were to move to Northern Ireland, where house prices are cheapest. The average home in the capital is valued at £331,000, compared to the north of England's £117,000; in Northern Ireland the average home fetches £109,000.
The difference between London and even nearby regions is stark. After London's recently reported growth of up to 11%, the next fastest rising region is East Anglia, posting a 6.6% increase, according to a recent analysis by the Nationwide building society. The commuter belt surrounding London is growing at 5.5% and the "outer south-east" at 3.4%.
Month by month, year by year, London is racing away, making it increasingly difficult for outsiders to buy their way in.
There are exceptions, of course. From Alderley Edge in Cheshire to parts of Essex, and in leafy David Cameron country to the west in Oxfordshire and Berkshire, there is money around, and high-value properties that people desperately want to live in and will pay a hefty price for. The same can even be said, here and there, of the north-east: there are small pockets of affluence that are insulated from the wider market.
Joanne Longstaff at estate agents Sarah Mains Residential, one of the larger firms in the north east, said: "We are finding there are some micro-markets on both sides of the Tyne that are seeing prices increase and selling-times quicken, but many other areas remain consistent." Consistently poor.
And Hampstead Road, everyone agrees, is far from being prime real estate. Back in 1999 the council offered houses for sale at 50p for those willing to invest £12,000 in the property and stay for a while. Benwell's high street is littered with pawn shops, pound shops and the ever-present Greggs bakers.
In 2007 it was reported that wise investors who had bought houses for 50p had now sold them for £145,000. Saeed is doubtful about those reports and, in any case, remains convinced that those days have gone and won't be coming back. "We had that burst, two or three crazy years, and it has been down ever since. People got to thinking that things would always get better but that's all gone now, and people around here realise that. My mum, sister and brother all live around here. But everyone around here wants to head that way," he says pointing north towards Newcastle Great Park. "That's where the money is."
Newcastle Great Park, by the A1, is a newbuild development where, according to the signs scattered on its outskirts, "living works". Well, to a degree it does. Debbie Hoggs, 47, and her husband, who have three children, bought their six-bedroom, four-storey home in Netherwitton Way eight years ago for £495,000. Today, Hoggs, who work for the pharmaceuticals company Sanofi Aventis, says the houses are going for £450,000.
She insists that the family have no intention of moving on and so it isn't an issue. But it clearly hasn't stopped her worrying at times. "At one point you'd call up and they'd value it at £410,000 or £420,000, and you know it is worth more than that," she says. Hoggs believes some owners in her square have taken a hit of around £40,000 by selling recently. Living here may "work", but perhaps only in the long term.
Back in town, 51-year-old Simon McIntosh moved into his home on a more established street, Moorside South, in a leafy, wealthy part of Fenham, a month ago. He agrees that he doesn't see big profits being made out of property here for some time to come.
He bought the four-bedroom home he shares with partner Christina Lausevic, 50, a healthcare therapist, for £455,000. They looked at another property in the street – originally on the market for £485,000, then reduced to £469,000 – but that has not found a buyer in eight months.
"It wasn't selling and it still isn't selling," he says. "The price has to be absolutely right." Prices on this street, where former Labour trade secretary Stephen Byers once lived, have barely changed in the last five years.
Neil Foster, a property consultant, says: "We are not seeing price inflation other than pin-prick hotspots. You set that to one side. Sentiment is better, activity is improved on last year and there are people shopping to buy. The perception of Help to Buy is bringing people forward.
"But, in reality, they are not using it. And any confidence is fragile. The clocks go back this weekend, the nights draw in and I don't really see it persisting beyond that."
In Hampstead Road, Saeed understands that. But he knows that on cold, dark nights in the north-east, people do need taxis.
Reported by guardian.co.uk 6 hours ago.