Even as the entire country would wait with baited breath for the results of Assembly elections in five states, the focus of attention would be the outcome in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous Indian state through which is laid the highway to power in Delhi.
In the absence of any discernible wave in favour of any party, the state is witnessing a three-cornered contest among Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the alliance partners Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). While it is a prestigious contest for all the parties, the stakes of the BJP are the highest as it is vital for it to not only pave the way for the next general elections in 2019 but also for providing it strength to improve its tally in Rajya Sabha where it is in a minority.
After having won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 elections, with the ruling SP reduced to mere five and the Congress to just two seats, the BJP has left no stone unturned for gaining a majority in the state Assembly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah have kept their focus on UP addressing numerous rallies and using all resources at their command for registering a victory in the state.
Many political and economic experts now believe that the timing of announcing demonetisation in early November had much to do with an eye on the UP elections. The SP as well as the BSP are both known for using money power and the sudden announcement of demonetisation hit them hard. No wonder the BSP led all other parties in depositing several crores of demonetised currency in cash during the given time frame.
Among other issues in the elections now, the demonetisation is considered an important issue. While the SP-Congress combine and the BSP are reminding people of the hardships caused by the demonetisation, Amit Shah has gone ahead and has suggested that the elections may be considered a referendum on demonetisation. A lot would depend on how people perceive that the move would have long term implications. Public generally has a short memory and BJP hopes that the people would forget about the hardships suffered by them.
In its effort to go to any extent to gain votes, the BJP has not hesitated from injecting communalism by alleging that the ruling SP was more sympathetic and generous towards Muslims. Even Modi referred to the charge that the state government allotted more funds for ‘kabaristans’ than ‘shamshan ghats’ forgetting the irony of discrimination even after death. Lack of governance and development are other charges that the BJP had been making against the SP-Congress combine besides taking potshots at the Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi.
The two parties arrived at an agreement literally at the eleventh hour with the Congress agreeing to become a junior partner and contesting 105 of the 403 seats. The party, which had ruled the state for several decades and provided majority of prime ministers from UP, is currently in a shambles and a deal with the SP has soared its chances of regaining some lost ground.
The goings on in SP still remain a mystery. Some political analysts believe that a drama was enacted by the party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav to strengthen the position of his son, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, by threatening a split and then keeping silence over the issue. The drama, which involved suspension and even expulsion of Akhilesh and even a contest for party symbol which was later allotted to Akhilesh, ended with almost all the party MLAs backing Akhilesh.
The alliance partners are projecting development as their main agenda and are banking on getting the support of Muslims and Yadavs who together account for nearly 35 per cent votes in the highly caste ridden society in the state.
However, they also face tough competition for these votes from the BSP. Besides the 20 per cent Dalit votes which it seeks to corner, the party also believes that the Muslims would vote for it. Its supremo Mayawati has been asking voters “not to waste their votes” on SP-Congress combine in the fight between her party and the BJP. Given her political acumen and specialisation in “social engineering”, she and her party are likely to play an important role in the final outcome.
BJP would like to win UP more than all the other four states put together. If it loses it, its dream of another term to run the country would be put in jeopardy and regional political parties would gain ground. The pollsters remain divided with most projecting a split mandate given the fact that there is no marked wave, as was the case in 2014, and all the three contestants having large support bases.
Even a small swing can change fortunes in the state. For instance, in 2007 the vote difference between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party was around 4 per cent, ensuring absolute majority for BSP. A mere swing of around 2.5 per cent in 2012 brought BSP to 80 seats and took SP to 224 seats. With BJP a substantial force in the ensuing elections, predicting the outcome can be a nightmare for pollsters this time over.