✍ MCX – WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000 for the week ended Dec. 20, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. It was the lowest reading since Nov. 1 and marked the fourth straight week of declines.
Crude inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an decrease of 2.3 million barrels. U.S. crude imports rose last week by 1.174 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil futures extended losses to more than $2 a barrel after the data. Gasoline stocks rose by 4.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000 barrels gain. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 900,000 barrels drop, the EIA data showed.
The EIA said U.S. utilities drew 49 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended Dec. 19.
PRECIOUS METALS
The spot gold is opened today and trading at $1185, therefore the electronic traded COMEX gold is up this morning by $10 and trading at $1185. Since the US markets are closed today we have only the electronic trading platform opened so therefore, very thin trading session is expected today. As far as view is concerned we believe since the USD index is trading down a tad pulling gold to rebound and as per the chart study we see a resistance near $1190/1195 levels or say near $1200 levels. We believe as long as these resistance levels are not breached we shall not turn completely bullish on the counter. In line with gold, silver is also seen trading marginally positive this morning at $15.95 up by 1.51% from its previous close.
Silver was up 0.3 percent at $15.71 an ounce. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, underscoring the economy’s sustained strength. The report came a day after the government reported the economy expanded at its fastest pace in 11 years in the third quarter and consumer spending increased solidly in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims ticking up to 290,000 last week. The prior week’s data was unrevised.
Gold fell near a three-week low on Wednesday as the latest piece of strong U.S. economic data fed the view that the Federal Reserve may bring forward the timing of a hike in U.S. interest rates. U.S. Labor Department data showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped for the fourth straight week. A day earlier, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at its quickest pace in 11 years.
BASE METAL
Copper fell on Wednesday as a strong dollar, weak oil prices and dimming demand prospects in top consumer China more than offset a brightening U.S. economic picture.
U.S. jobless claims data beat forecasts, while data on Tuesday showed the economy grew at 5.0 percent in the third quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear. Also weighing on copper, sharp falls in oil prices tempted investors to sell commodity basket holdings, while concerns over growth in China persisted after Chinese equities closed down 2 percent despite broad gains in other global equities.
ENERGY
This morning oil is seen trading at $56.12 up by half per cent from its previous close. We have been seeing a range bound trade in oil despite the rise in oil inventories, data released by the DOE on Wednesday. We believe the commodity may trade in the same range at the electronic platform while due to closure of NYMEX exchange we might not see much of movement in the prices. Our view shall remain bearish on for the day with strict stop loss.
At the local market the Indian rupee is trading flat 63.53 no major change from its previous close. So, we may also not see much of change in the prices due to Indian rupee. However, overall we hold a bearish outlook on oil and recommend selling from higher levels.
Natural Gas for January future at NYMEX traded down while it was shut on 25th and this morning the same is seen trading at $3.072 higher by 1.39% from its previous close. The gains noticed this morning could be mere recovery while the overall trend is still down so we recommend selling the counter from higher levels. However, from the derivatives front we see that all three variable – price, volume and open interests have declined indicating soon the contract may witness short covering in the prices. Also, 29th is the last date for the contract expiry hence, short covering could be expected. We recommend those who are on sell side might have to exit/book profit on the trades
U.S. natural gas futures tumbled to 27-month lows on Wednesday after mild winter weather led to a smaller-than-expected storage draw and fueled worries about a stock buildup. Weekly consumption of natural gas across America is at its lowest since 2006 at least, data shows, and weather forecasts indicate little cold ahead in the U.S. Northeast, the region that consumes the bulk of gas for heat. The EIA said U.S. utilities drew 49 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended Dec. 19. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 64-bcf draw, which itself would have been the lowest for the week since 2006, according to EIA data.
MDA Weather Services’ six-to-ten day forecast shows “a very limited strong cold risk to the East Coast,” with cold temperatures likely only toward the end of the forecast period.
Global oil markets fell again on Wednesday in holiday-thin trade, extending more than a week of see-saw volatility as traders jousted over whether a growing supply glut had been fully priced in. Oil whipped lower early in the day and tested new lows after U.S. data showed crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.3 million barrels last week to their highest December level on record. Analysts had expected a seasonal draw. Oil prices slid throughout the day, reversing all the previous day’s gains that were triggered by data showing the U.S. economy had grown 5 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace since 2003 and much faster than the 3.9 percent annual rate previously reported by the Commerce Department.
✍ NCDEX – WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
JEERA
As expected on Wednesday Jeera Dec. futures traded on a positive note (3.97% higher) as speculators enlarged their positions, supported by good demand in the spot market against tight supplies from producing belts. Jeera of Indian origin in the international markets was quoting around $1900-2000/ton.
According to Gujarat government data releases on 22nd Dec 14, Jeera recorded 44% less sowing compared to last year’s 4.4 lakh hac. Sowing of the spice has almost over both in Gujarat and Rajasthan reported lower acreage. The tight supply and good demand in spot market coupled with the slight expected delay of new crop due to late sowing support the prices during the period.
Export orders are diverted to India due to Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey. .Jeera (cumin) exports have been 87,500 tonnes in the first six months (Apr-Sep) of 2014-15, a rise of 25% from the corresponding period of the previous.
CHANA
NCDEX Chana Jan. futures traded on positive note (1.20% higher) taking clue from the spot market on raising demand against restricted arrivals. There is also strong demand for Dal from the wholesalers increased the prices. Overall sentiments have turned positive for Chana amid lower sowing this season and expected lower output in 2014-15. On the futures platform too, Chana prices have gained sharply during the week (5.12%) as sowing lags behind last year’s level. Also, reports that department of revenue has proposed 10% import duty on Chana supported prices during the week.
As on Dec 19, 2014, Chana has been sown over 75.15 lakh hectares less 16.6% as compared to last year. Sowing will continue till the 2nd week of Jan 15 and expected to be about 14-15% lower Y-o-Y.
Weather so far has been conducive for the growth of Chana crop. Considering favorable weather conditions in the coming days and thereby a normal yield, we expect Chana production to hover around 84-86 lakh tonnes in 2014-15.
SOYABEAN
NCDEX Soybean Jan futures traded on a positive note (0.39% higher) in expectation of increasing export duty of crude and ref oils. In the international markets, soybean was down by 0.94% in the previous trading session. First three contracts at CBOT posted losses between 10 -10.6 cents on a bushel on Wednesday.
For soybeans, the USDA cut prices by $0.35 to $8.50 a bushel its estimate for the mean price next season, a level not seen in Chicago futures since March 2009, and on a year-average basis since 2006.
Global Soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 mt in Dec 2014/15 up 9.6% compared to 2013/14 estimates. During the month there is gain in production data for Canada, Ukraine and Paraguay. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels.
The USDA’s baseline forecast calls for a small decline in 2015 soybean plantings, to 84.0 million acres. Exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 ahead of the South American harvest expected in Feb onwards.
REFI. SOYA
Yesterday Ref soy oil Jan futures traded on a mixed note (0.1% lower) as limited buying support at higher prices.
The edible oils market traded on the mixed note on Wednesday on anticipation of import duty hike, flat physical demand led by mixed overseas and domestic futures. Stockists tried to fill the pipeline by placing bulk orders. On the Bombay Commodity Exchange, major edible oils rose marginally in the range of ₹2-10 for 10 kg. Soybean refined oil witnessed a hefty jump of ₹17.
The customs duty on crude oil has been increased to 7.5 per cent from 2.5 per cent earlier, while the duty on refined edible oil has been raised to 15 per cent from 10 per cent, as per the notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs.
In month of Nov 14, there is an increase of 700% import of Crude soybean oil to 121,097 tonnes as compared to last year. It is mainly due to high prices of soybean and lesser realization for oil and soybean meal in export market, resulted in lower crushing and availability of domestic oil coupled with anticipated increase in import duty by the GOI.
RM SEED
Yesterday Mustard seed Jan futures traded on a positive note (0.24% higher) taking cues from reports of decline in sowing area and improved winter demand leading to a steep rise in prices since last week. There is strong winter demand and slack availability, prices of mustard and its oil are on the boil in mandis across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
The acreage in the country so far is down by about 5% at about 62.9 lakh hectares (lh). The acreage in Rajasthan has dropped by 11% at 26.4 lh. Traders expect rapeseed output to drop to 7.0 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from 7.4 million last year.
Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada (15.6 million tons).
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