From James Harkin (Webmaster & Editor of LindseyWilliams.net). Here is a summary of articles of interest from around the world for this week. Please LIKE the Lindsey Williams Online Facebook Page to see stories posted daily regarding the current state of the economy around the world.
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Latest News From April 22, 2016 to April 28, 2016:
Putin’s Decade-Old Dream Realized as Russia to Price Its Own Oil
Russian President Vladimir Putin is on the verge of realizing a decade-old dream: Russian oil priced in Russia. The nation’s largest commodity exchange, whose chairman is Putin ally Igor Sechin, is courting international oil traders to join its emerging futures market. The goal is to increase revenue from Urals crude by disconnecting the price-setting mechanism from the world’s most-used Brent oil benchmark. Another aim is to move away from quoting petroleum in U.S. dollars.
Biggest Financial Bubble in History Will Engulf World-Gregory Mannarino
Financial analyst and stock trader Gregory Mannarino says pay no attention to the rising stock market because it is “fake.” Mannarino says, “The manipulation is absolutely epic. We have never seen anything like it. There is going to be a horrible price to pay for this. Why? Because it will correct to fair market value. There is no doubt in my mind that all of this will correct to fair value. All these distortions can only go so far, and we know this. We have seen this throughout history without exception. . . . We have the biggest bubble in the history of the world, and that is the debt bubble that has re-inflated this stock market bubble, it will burst. It will burst because every single financial bubble in history, without exception, has burst before it. This one is going to burst too, but this one is going to engulf the world. It’s going to be unlike anything we’ve seen in the history of the world, and there is no doubt that the middle class will no longer exist when this occurs. It’s going to be a massive transfer of wealth to these financial institutions that are going to go short all of this. It is legal theft on a magnitude and scale that is unimaginable.”
How Puerto Rico’s debt bomb could blow up on the mainland
Puerto Rico, an awkward legacy of America’s 1898 testosterone spill, the Spanish-American War, is about to teach two things that few Americans know: If conditions get bad enough there, its residents, who are American citizens, can come here. And if Congress does not deal carefully with the mess made by the government in San Juan, Congress will find itself rescuing governments in Springfield, Ill., and other state capitals. Puerto Rico’s approximately 18 debt-issuing entities have debts — approximately $72 billion — they can’t repay. The Government Development Bank might miss a $422 million payment due in May, and the central government might miss a $2 billion payment in July. Congress won’t enact a US taxpayer “bailout.”
Puerto Rico’s Governor Says the Island Will Default on Monday
Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank has a $422 million payment due to creditors that day. Puerto Rican officials talked tough ahead of a major debt payment due on Monday, with the U.S. territory’s governor predicting default, and chances slipping for a restructuring deal with creditors. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla said “there will be a default on Monday,” adding, “I don’t think there is a deal on the table that avoids a default.”
Yen Surges Most Since 2010 as BOJ Refrains From Adding Stimulus
The yen surged by the most since 2010 after the Bank of Japan maintained its record stimulus, surprising traders who had expected additional easing and forcing them to exit bets on declines in the currency. Japan’s currency rose against all of its 16 major peers as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his colleagues opted to refrain from more policy action and to take more time to assess the impact of their negative interest-rate program. A slight majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the central bank would respond to a strengthening yen that’s cast a shadow over prospects for higher wages and investment.
COMEX Default Is Coming Soon-Bill Holter
According to financial writer Bill Holter, we are getting to the end of the gold and silver price suppression game. Holter contends, “Because the inventories are so small, silver and gold registered categories (at COMEX) total about $1.2 billion. That’s nothing in today’s world. That’s less than one day’s interest the U.S. pays on its debt. I don’t see this going for a long time because inventories are so small. . . . This whole suppression game on gold and silver was brought about to protect the reserve currency, the dollar, because gold is a direct competitor with the dollar. If the silver market blows up, and I shouldn’t say if, it’s when the silver market blows up, that’s going to blow the gold market up, and that is basically going to expose the fact the West is a fraud, that the gold and silver markets were a fractional reserve Ponzi scheme. That’s going to blow confidence, and you are going to see derivatives blow up all over the world, and markets will be closed in a couple of days.”
US-Style Mortgage Fraud a ‘Nuclear Bomb’ to Australian Banks
The Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC), which regulates financial services companies,has the backbone of a chicken wing when it comes to enforcing the rule of law; this is widely recognized in Australia and resulted in a Parliamentary inquiry. If any politician believes that ASIC is a “tough cop on the beat,” they should seriously reconsider their opinion on this issue. Under the pomp and ceremony of the government’s decision to levy the banks to fund ASIC’s prolonged $400 million+ annual fishing vacation is its pursuit of catching tadpoles in the open seas while leaving sharks and barracudas to freely roam. Unfortunately for the regulator, there is a new term Australians will become accustomed to. Control fraud. It refers to fraud committed by the high-ranking employees of a corporation: executives and managers, typically a bank. It’s a crime that ASIC has decided neither to investigate nor prosecute, leaving borrowers on their own with no pennies to spare and nowhere to turn to.
Hong Kong Is Building The Biggest Gold Vault And Trading Hub In The World
Less than a week after the official launch of the Chinese Yuan-denominated gold fix on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a historic move which represents “an ambitious step to exert more control over the pricing of the metal and boost its influence in the global bullion market” and which will gradually transform the market of paper gold trading, in the process shifting the global trading hub from west (London) to east (China), overnight Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange (CGSE) Society revealed plans to do something similar for physical gold when it announced plans for what may end up being the biggest gold vault in the world.
Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It’s 2008 All Over Again
The Dow closed above 18,000 on Monday for the first time since July. Isn’t that great news? I truly wish that it was. If the Dow actually reflected economic reality, I could stop writing about “economic collapse” and start blogging about cats or football. Unfortunately, the stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now. Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. In fact, this wave of debt defaults have become so dramatic that even USA Today is reporting on it…
47 Percent Of Americans Cannot Even Come Up With $400 To Cover An Emergency Room Visit
If you had to make a sudden visit to the emergency room, would you have enough money to pay for it without selling something or borrowing the funds from somewhere? Most Americans may not realize this, but this is something that the Federal Reserve has actually been tracking for several years now. And according to the Fed, an astounding 47 percent of all Americans could not come up with $400 to pay for an emergency room visit without borrowing it or selling something. Various surveys that I have talked about in the past have found that more than 60 percent of all Americans are living to paycheck to paycheck, but I didn’t realize that things were quite this bad for about half the country. If you can’t even come up with $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit, then you are just surviving from month to month by the skin of your teeth. Unfortunately, about half of us are currently in that situation.
Halliburton says it cut 6,000 jobs in first quarter, delays earnings call
Halliburton Co said on Friday that it reduced headcount by more than 6,000 during the first quarter due to the prolonged slump in oil prices. The oilfield services provider said revenue dropped 40.4 percent to $4.2 billion in the quarter ended March 31. The company also said it would now hold its earnings conference call on May 3, instead of April 25, to accommodate the April 30 deadline for its merger with Baker Hughes Inc.
UC Berkeley Touts $15 Minimum Wage Law, Then Fires Hundreds Of Workers After It Passes
Labor Markets: Hundreds of employees at the University of California at Berkeley are getting schooled in basic economics, as the $15 minimum wage just cost them their jobs. Too bad liberal elites “fighting for $15” don’t get it. A week after California Gov. Jerry Brown signed the state’s $15 minimum wage boost into law, UC Berkeley Chancellor Nicholas Dirks sent a memo to employees announcing that 500 jobs were getting cut.
Economy In Decline: Apple Reports Massive Revenue Decline As iPhone Sales Plummet Dramatically
Corporate revenues in the United States have been falling for quite some time, but now some of the biggest companies in the entire nation are reporting extremely disappointing results. On Tuesday, Apple shocked the financial world by reporting that revenue for the first quarter had fallen 7.4 billion dollars compared to the same quarter last year. That is an astounding plunge, and it represents the very first year-over-year quarterly sales decline that Apple has experienced since 2003. Analysts were anticipating some sort of drop, but nothing like this. And of course last week we learned that Google and Microsoft also missed revenue and earnings projections for the first quarter of 2016. The economic crisis that began during the second half of 2015 is really starting to take hold, and even our largest tech companies are now feeling the pain.
Apple shares plunge 7% on first drop in iPhone sales ever
Apple’s streak of iPhone-powered sales ended Tuesday when the company reported its first quarterly sales drop in more than a decade. The news sent Apple’s (AAPL) stock into a tailspin with shares plunging 6.5% to $97.55 in late trading Wednesday. CEO Tim Cook signaled a saturated smartphone market would keep a lid on sales, although he suggested the company’s new entry-level smartphone, the SE, promised to eventually goose sales among Android switchers and in emerging markets such as China and India.
Bank-hacking malware discovery leaves 11,000 global financial institutions on high alert
Over ten thousand banks and financial institutions are being urged to remain vigilant after the secure Swift (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system – used to send messages between global firms – was reportedly compromised by the sophisticated hacking scheme that targeted the Bangladesh central bank in March 2016. The news comes after security researchers at British defence contractor BAE Systems claimed to have uncovered a stealthy piece of malware used in the Bangladesh attack, which resulted in the loss of $81m (£56m, €71m). Previously, investigators said that cybercriminals broke into the bank’s computer networks to steal vital access credentials. However, fresh research claims that Swift was also likely compromised during the hack in order to erase records of malicious financial transfers.
How California’s minimum wage increase will add more robotic automation in logistics
California’s minimum wage hikes are going to force logistics firms with low-paid warehouse workers to invest more heavily in robotic technology, according to Inland Empire economist John Husing. Husing said most of Southern California’s warehouse employees who earn minimum wage are working part time. But the newly approved pay hikes that will boost the state’s current minimum wage of $10 per hour to $15 per hour by 2022 will still place financial pressures on logistics companies. And they’ll be looking for ways to increase efficiency while reducing costs.
The Ugly Truth About A $15 Minimum Wage
The Service Employees International Union spent 2015 expanding its campaign for a $15 minimum wage to other industries. In recent nationwide protests, the union focused again on its original target: Fast food companies, and McDonald’s MCD +0.19% in particular. I worked for the company for three decades, and served as its USA President for 13 years. I can assure you that a $15 minimum wage won’t spell the end of the brand. However it will mean wiping out thousands of entry-level opportunities for people without many other options.
Australian dollar drops sharply after soft inflation data
The Australian dollar dropped two-thirds of a US cent on Wednesday after a lower-than-expected inflation reading saw markets calculating an increase in the risk of an interest rate cut. The Aussie fell to US$0.7678 to show a loss of 0.9 per cent on the day. It touched a 10-month peak of US$0.7836 last week.
US new home sales fall amid weakness in the West
New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in March, but the decline was concentrated in the West region, suggesting that the housing market continued to strengthen. The Commerce Department said on Monday new home sales decreased 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 units. February’s sales pace was revised up to 519,000 units from the previously reported 512,000 units.
Another iconic British high-street brand has gone under
“Well, we have been declining for years,” reflected one despondent shop assistant at British Homes Stores (BHS) after learning that the department store had filed for administration on April 25th. The news has come as no great surprise to many of BHS’s staff and still less to the retail analysts who have been following the firm’s slow demise. Unless a buyer is found soon, the company could well be broken up, its 164 stores and stock sold off to repay creditors. That would spell the end of BHS, founded in 1928, as a high-street clothing and home-goods chain, and disaster for its 11,000 employees. Losses on this scale would simply compound the gloom that accompanied the thousands of recent job losses in the British steel industry, with more, probably, to come.
Dallas Fed manufacturing index falls more than forecast
The Dallas Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index contracted for a 16th straight month, falling to -13.9 in April. Economists had forecast that the index rose a bit to -10 from -13.6 in March, according to Bloomberg. Although the headline index slipped, factory activity expanded for a second straight month, and production output grew. New orders, shipments and wages also increased. But labor-market indicators showed that employment was still weak.
Austin Reed enters administration putting 1,200 jobs at risk
Menswear retailer Austin Reed has entered administration, putting almost 1,200 jobs at risk. A statement from the administrators blamed a “challenging” retail market and cash flow difficulties. The company, which has 100 standalone stores and is stocked in a further 50, has struggled to compete and has seen its sales fall. Austin Reed began in 1900 as a tailor and counted Winston Churchill as a customer. “Austin Reed is a well-regarded and iconic brand,” said Peter Saville, one of the newly appointed administrators. “We are confident that it is an attractive proposition for a range of potential buyers.” The menswear brand is the second UK retailer to enter administration in as many days, following the failure of BHS.
America’s Department Stores May Have to Close Hundreds of Locations
That’s a quarter of their stores. To get back to their pre-recession productivity peak, the nation’s top department stores would have to close hundreds of locations, according to a leading real estate analysis firm. Chains such as Sears, J.C. Penney and Macy’s have been hit by a double whammy: the loss of market share to Amazon and specialty stores, coupled with chronic drops in shopper traffic to malls. Collectively, they would need to close some 800 stores for sales per square foot to go back to 2006 levels, Green Street Advisors wrote in a recent research note. That translates to 25% of all department stores nationwide, whose list also includes Dillard’s, Bon-Ton and Nordstrom.
“A Total Game Changer” – From Over-Population To De-Population
Strangely, the world is suffering from two seemingly opposite trends…overpopulation and depopulation in concert. The overpopulation is due to the increased longevity of elderly lifespans vs. depopulation of young populations due to collapsing birthrates. The depopulation is among most under 25yr old populations (except Africa) and among many under 45yr old populations. So, the old are living decades longer than a generation ago but their adult children are having far fewer children. The economics of this is a complete game changer and is unlike any time previously in the history of mankind. None of the models ever accounted for a shrinking young population absent income, savings, or job opportunity vs. massive growth in the old with a vast majority reliant on government programs in their generally underfunded retirements (apart from a minority of retirees who are wildly “overfunded”). There are literally hundreds of reasons for the longer lifespans and lower birthrates…but that’s for another day. This is simply a look at what is and what is likely to be absent a goal-seeked happy ending.
Gerald Celente – China Stock Market Crash To Create Full-Blown Global Panic, But Gold Will Shine
Today the top trends forecaster in the world told King World News that China’s stock market crash will crash along with their economy and this will create a full-blown global panic, but gold will shine. Gerald Celente: “George Soros came out earlier in the week warning about the Chinese debt bubble, which is estimated now to be at about $30 trillion, up from $500 billion twenty years ago… “Soros said: “Stimulus can buy you additional time, but it makes the problem that much bigger. That’s where we are.” So when they talk about China’s growth now at 6.7 percent, they leave out the fact that the Chinese banks pumped in some $212 billion in new local currency loans in March. There was also the social financing of another $360 billion in the month of March.
Goldman Sachs opens to the masses
For almost 150 years Goldman Sachs has been the go-to bank of the rich and powerful. But now the Wall Street titan is opening up to the masses on Main Street by offering online savings accounts for as little as $1 on deposit.Goldman’s shift down market comes as the bank is under pressure to develop new streams of funding. Weak first-quarter results from the big US banks have highlighted the challenges faced by their investment banking units, under pressure from volatile markets and tight regulations. Analysts last week fired a barrage of questions at the US banks, and at Goldman in particular, wondering why they were not doing more to reboot their businesses. Goldman posted the lowest quarterly return on equity – just 6.4 per cent, on an annualised basis – of the past four years.
“The Damage Could Be Massive” – How Central Banks Trapped The World In Bonds
Yields on $7.8 trillion of government bonds have been driven below zero by worries over global growth, forcing investors looking for income to flood into debt with maturities of as long as 100 years. Worse still, as Bloomberg reports, central banks’ policy is exacerbating matters, as the unprecedented debt purchases to spur their economies have soaked up supply and left would-be buyers with few options. This has driven the ‘duration’ – or risk sensitivity – of the bond market to a record high, meaning, as one CIO exclaimed, even with a small increase in rates “the positions are so huge that the damage can be massive… People are complacent.” Decelerating economic growth worldwide, combined with more aggressive stimulus measures by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, pushed average yields on $48 trillion of debt securities in the BofA Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index to a record-low 1.29 percent this month, compared with 1.38 percent currently.
In 1 Out Of Every 5 American Families, Nobody Has A Job
If nobody is working in one out of every five U.S. families, then how in the world can the unemployment rate be close to 5 percent as the Obama administration keeps insisting? The truth, of course, is that the U.S. economy is in far worse condition than we are being told. Last week, I discussed the fact that the Federal Reserve has found that 47 percent of all Americans would not be able to come up with $400 for an unexpected visit to the emergency room without borrowing it or selling something. But Barack Obama and his minions never bring up that number. Nor do they ever bring up the fact that 20 percent of all families in America are completely unemployed.
Stricken shipping firm sells off its ships… for $1 each
A heavily indebted shipping firm has been forced to sell off its fleet for as little as $1 a piece as the global shipping crisis takes its toll. Goldenport Holdings said on Friday that it would sell six of its eight vessels for a token consideration of $1 each, while it would look for the best price it can get on its two remaining ships. The company will also delist from the London Stock Exchange after its debt pile spiralled “significantly higher” than the value of its fleet. The embattled shipping group has been locked in negotiations with its lenders, including RBS, since January this year in a bid to restructure its loan facilities, but within the last few weeks shareholders have given the go ahead to sell off the loss-making ships.
Venezuela cuts power for four hours a day to save energy
Venezuela is introducing power cuts of four hours a day from next week to deal with a worsening energy crisis. The cuts will last for 40 days as the country struggles under a severe drought limiting hydroelectric output. It is the latest setback to Venezuela’s economy which has been hit by a sharp fall in the price of its main export, oil. The country’s main brewer, Polar, also says it will stop production because it has no dollars to buy grain abroad. The company, which produces 80% of the country’s beer, says 10,000 workers will be affected by the stoppage.
This virtually guarantees that your taxes are going through the roof
I was thinking about this the other day when I read an article in the Financial Times about the “disastrous” $3.4 trillion funding hole in the United States public pension system. To be clear, they’re not talking about the Social Security mess. That’s an additional $40+ trillion funding shortfall. The $3.4 trillion gap is referring primarily to city and state pension funds; these pension funds essentially have way too many liabilities and obligation, with too few assets to support them. And the problem gets worse each year. Now, pension funds in the Land of the Free are supposed to be backed up and insured by a federal agency known as the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC). The PBGC is sort of like the FDIC for pension funds. There’s just one small problem: in addition to all of these city and state pension funds that are under water, the PBGC is INSOLVENT. In its most recent annual report, the PBGC (which ensures the pension funds of more than 40 million Americans), showed net equity of NEGATIVE $76 billion. So not only do these pension funds need a bailout, but the government organization that is supposed to insure the pension funds needs a bailout…
A Few Troubling Facts
BANKING BUSINESS – Just 4 banks in the United States hold 91% of all derivatives nationwide as of the end of 2015. The face amount of the derivative contracts held by all insured commercial banks and savings associations was $181.0 trillion as of 12/31/15. 76% of the $181.0 trillion were interest rate derivative contracts (source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency). I am sure glad that the government has spread the risk in derivatives around.
The Fed Sends a Frightening Letter to JPMorgan and Corporate Media Yawns
Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a 19-page letter that it and the FDIC had issued to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on April 12 as a result of its failure to present a credible plan for winding itself down if the bank failed. The letter carried frightening passages and large blocks of redacted material in critical areas, instilling in any careful reader a sense of panic about the U.S. financial system.
“China Is Hoarding Crude At The Fastest Pace On Record”
In the aftermath of China’s gargantuan, record new loan injection in Q1, which saw a whopping $1 trillion in new bank and shadow loans created in the first three months of the year, many were wondering where much of this newly created cash was ending up. We now know where most of it went: soaring imports of crude oil. We know this because as the chart below shows, Chinese crude imports via Qingdao port in Shandong province surged to record 9.86 million metric tons last month based on data from General Administration of Customs.
US banks endure biggest drop in revenues since 2011
The six biggest US banks have suffered their steepest decline in quarterly revenues since 2011, after a profound slump on Wall Street overshadowed a boost from their consumer businesses. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo generated total revenues of $98bn in the first quarter, down 9 per cent from a year earlier — the steepest fall in five years, according to a Financial Times analysis of Bloomberg data. Deep cost cuts failed to counteract the fall in revenue so the six lenders also saw their collective net income plummet 24 per cent year on year to $18bn.
Why Are The Chinese Stockpiling Silver? Big Price Move Coming?
It looks like something big may happen to the silver market and the Chinese are preparing for it. After China launched it’s new Yuan Gold Fix today, the prices of the precious metals surged. At one point today, silver was up 5%. Silver is now trading at the $17 level, a price not seen in over a year. Even though gold has taken center stage today due to Chinese rolling out there new Yuan Gold fix, something quite interesting has been taking place in the silver market over the past six months. While Comex silver inventories have been declining from a peak of 184 million oz (Moz) in July 2015 to 154 Moz today, silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been doing the exact opposite.
Mario Draghi Explains Why QE ‘Will’ Work This Time – ECB Press Conference Live Feed
As expected today’s ECB statements were a snoozer, and likely Mario Draghi’s official statement will be too – “more of the same.” However, the real fun and games will come as he combats questions on 1) the lack of effectiveness of QE so far (just wait, any day now it will work), and 2) helicopter money (“whatever it takes”). He better offer some hope for moar as EUR is surging into the meeting…
“The Men Behind The Curtain Are Being Revealed” – CEO Says Real-World Pricing To Return To Gold & Silver Markets
Astute observers of financial markets, especially in the precious metals sector, have long argued that small concentrations of major market players have been manipulating asset prices. Last week those suspicions were confirmed when Deutsche Bank, one of the world’s leading financial institutions, not only admitted to regulators that they have been involved in the racket, but that they were prepared to turn over records implicating many of their cohorts in a global scheme to suppress prices. In his latest interview with SGT Report, straight-shooting Callinex Mines CEO Max Porterfield explains that now that the men behind the curtain are being revealed, asset prices in precious metals, base metals and other commodities will return to more natural pricing mechanisms based on core supply and demand fundamentals.
The SUNE Finally Sets: SunEdison Files For Bankruptcy
It’s over. After months of arguing that everything will be ok as investors flee the troubled company, it is now officially over: *SUNEDISON FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY AFTER ACQUISITION BINGE. As Bloomberg notes, Terraform Power and Global are not part of the filing. The company reported between $10-50 billion in assets and $10-50 billion in debt.
In “Unprecedented Snub”, Saudi Arabia Demands “Recalibration Of Relationship” With U.S.
As Obama concludes his fourth and supposedly final meeting to Saudi Arabia as U.S. president, the White House was quick to explain where relations with the Saudi Kingdom lay, and as CNN reported this morning, moved to tamp down suggestions that ties with Saudi Arabia are fraying, with administration officials saying that President Barack Obama “really cleared the air” with King Salman at a meeting Wednesday. Which is strange because that is not how the other side saw it: even as White House officials stressed that the leaders made progress, a prominent member of the Saudi royal family told CNN “a recalibration” of the U.S.-Saudi relationship was needed amid regional upheaval, dropping oil prices and ongoing strains between the two longtime allies.
FEDERAL EUROPE PLOT: EU draws up plans for United States of Europe behind Britain’s back
PLANS for a United States of Europe have been drawn up in a bid to give Brussels bureaucrats an iron grip over the continent, it has been revealed. In a direct challenge to David Cameron’s claims of British sovereignty, Germany, France, Italy and Luxembourg signed a document last September in Rome calling for the creation of a “general union of states”, which has only now come to light. The further integrated union would not only take a central hold over economic and fiscal matters, as well as internal markets, but would also include social and cultural affairs and foreign, security and defence policy of member states.
George Soros Warns “China Resembles US In 2008”, Hard Landing “Practically Unavoidable”
China’s credit growth in March (and $1 trillion surge in total social financing in Q1) is a “warning sign” according to billionaire George Soros, “because it shows how much work is needed to stop the slowdown.” Speaking at an event in new York this evening, Soros commented on “troubling developments” in China, the anti-corruption drive’s impact on capital outflows and the real-estate bubble “feeding on itself.” His conclusion, rather ominously, was that despite all the naysayers and fiction-peddlers, China “resembles US in 2007-8,” before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession. As Bloomberg reports, Billionaire investor George Soros said China’s debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S. in 2007-08, before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession.
One of the nation’s largest pension funds could soon cut benefits for retirees
More than a quarter of a million active and retired truckers and their families could soon see their pension benefits severely cut — even though their pension fund is still years away from running out of money. Within the next few weeks, the Treasury Department is expected to announce a crucial decision on whether it will approve reductions to one of the country’s largest multi-employer pension plans. The potential cuts are possible under legislation passed by Congress in 2014 that for the first time allowed financially distressed multi-employer plans to reduce benefits for retirees if it would improve the solvency of the fund. The law weakened federal protections that for more than 40 years shielded one of the last remaining pillars that workers could rely on for financial security in retirement.
Negative rates put pressure on central banks to take risks
Investors ranging from small German savers to global life insurers have long complained about central banks’ use of negative interest rates. Now, however, another group is feeling the pain from negative rates — central banks themselves. European and Japanese rate cuts are putting pressure on many central banks’ returns — a source of income used to cover running costs and to provide finance ministries with profits on which they have come to rely. A poll of reserve managers from 77 central banks, entrusted with reserves worth $6tn last August, found a clear majority were changing their portfolio management strategy as a result — including taking steps such as buying riskier assets.
Abu Dhabi Fund Calls 1MDB in Default After Missed Payment
A key Middle Eastern business partner of 1Malaysia Development Bhd. said the Malaysian state development fund has failed to make a $1.1 billion payment as part of a debt-restructuring agreement and that as a result a debt deal between the two entities has been terminated. The announcement, made in a London Stock Exchange filing by the International Petroleum Investment Company, an Abu Dhabi sovereign-wealth fund, marks a deterioration in relations between the two funds and signals fresh complications for 1MDB as it tries to work its way out from under billions of dollars of debt.
Saudi Arabia takes out $10bn in bank loans
Saudi Arabia is raising $10bn from a consortium of global banks as the kingdom embarks on its first international debt issuance in 25 years to counter dwindling oil revenues and reserves. The landmark five-year loan, a signal of Riyadh’s newfound dependence on foreign capital, opens the way for Saudi to launch its first international bond issue. It comes as the sustained slump in crude encourages other Gulf governments, such as Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Oman, to tap international bond markets. The oil-rich kingdom, which last weekend blocked a potential deal among oil producers to freeze output and bolster prices, has burnt through $150bn in financial reserves since late 2014 as its fiscal deficit is set to widen to 19 per cent of gross domestic product this year.
“Swimming Naked” – Chinese Corporate Bond Market Worst Since 2003
A week ago we highlight the “last bubble standing” was finally bursting, and as China’s corporate bond bubble deflates rapidly, it appears investors are catching on to the contagion possibilities this may involve as one analyst warns “the cost has built up in the form of corporate credit risks and bank risks for the whole economy.” As Bloomberg reports, local issuers have canceled 61.9 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) of bond sales in April alone, and Standard & Poor’s is cutting its assessment of Chinese firms at a pace unseen since 2003. Simply put, the unprecedented boom in China’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is starting to unravel. As Bloomberg notes, China’s leaders face a difficult balancing act.
China Launches Yuan Gold Fix To “Exert More Control Over Price Of Gold”
Overnight a historic event took place when China, the world’s top gold consumer, launched a yuan-denominated gold benchmark as had been previewed here previously, in what Reuters dubbed “an ambitious step to exert more control over the pricing of the metal and boost its influence in the global bullion market.” Considering the now officially-confirmed rigging of the gold and silver fix courtesy of last week’s Deutsche Bank settlement, this is hardly bad news and may finally lead to some rigging cartel and central bank-free price discovery. Or it may not, because China would enjoy nothing more than continuing to accumulate gold at lower prices.
Eric Hunsader: The Financial System Is “Absolutely, Positively Rigged”
Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex, has been at the vanguard of warning about the dangers and the rampant fraud that the rise of high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithims have let loose in today’s financial markets. While he usually feels like a lone voice in a world happy to deceive itself, he was shocked to receive a $750,000 whistleblower award from the SEC for his efforts. He’s been sadly less shocked to see that since the award was publicly announced, the abuses he reported have only become more extreme and frequent.
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