div classtrackimg alt srchttphits.theguardian.combssguardiangufeeds1H.25.557350nsguardianandpageNameArticle3Apremierleaguefootballclubscomputeranalystsmanagersdatawinning3A2053161andchFootballandc3Obsandc4Football2CPremierLeague28Football292CDavidMoyes28football292CManchesterUnited28Football292CManchesterCity28Football292CLiverpoolFC28Football292CArsenalFC28Football292CEverton28Football292CArseneWenger2CSamAllardyce2CHarryRedknapp2CWiganAthletic28Football292CRobertoMartinez2CSport2CTechnologyandc5Unclassified2CEuropaLeague2CPremierLeagueandc6SteveMcClaren2CTimLewisandc720142F032F09093A29andc82053161andc9Articleandc10Featureandc13andc19GUKandc47UKandc64UKandc65HowcomputeranalyststookoveratBritain27stopfootballclubsandc66Sportandc67nextgencompatibleandc72andc73andc74andc75andh2GU2FSport2FFootball2FPremierLeague width1 height1 divp classstandfirstManchester City has 11 people analysing players data but will a techdriven statistical approach squeeze out intuitionppWhy has a hrefhttpwww.bbc.co.uksport0football26366554 titleDavid Moyesa had such a horror show since taking over as Manchester United manager last summer From our armchairs the diagnosis has been relatively straightforward taking over from a legend is inevitably a fools errand anyone replacing a hrefhttpwww.theguardian.comfootballblog2014feb27alexfergusondavidmoyesmanchesterunited titleSir Alex Ferguson awas doomed before a ball was kicked. Moyes inherited a patchy squad with too few players at the peak of their powers. Or if you want to be snarky you might query Moyess credentials he never won a major trophy as a manager at Preston North End and Everton and has now brought a smallerclub mentality to United arguably the most famous football organisation on the planet.ppMoyes clearly has a different perspective on the crisis. While he is restricted to bringing in new players by two transfer windows one over summer the other during January he can make changes to personnel behind the scenes whenever he likes. At the end of last year he overhauled Uniteds backroom staff. The arrivals included Robbie Cooke Evertons chief scout Chelseas European scout Mick Doherty who also worked with Moyes at Everton and John Murtough formerly responsible for Evertons vaunted academy and latterly the Premier Leagues head of elite performance. His final transfer was James Smith head of technical scouting at Everton.ppNone of these appointments made headlines but Moyes believes they could be crucial in unearthing the future stars of Manchester United within the club and outside and turning round his fortunes at Old Trafford. There has been a revolution in football though it is one that even the most committed fans will only be dimly aware of. Clubs are becoming smarter more efficient. Weve probably all seen the graphics and statistics that pop up in newspapers and on shows such as emMatch of the Dayem it began with counting corners and shots on goal but recently the analysis has become more whizzbang not least speed profiling and heat maps which plot a players movement around the pitch. But this is just a fraction of the data that can be collected during a match. a hrefhttpwww.optasports.com titleOptaa a sports statistics company records around 1500 events from every fixture.ppAll 20 clubs in the Premier League and many in the lower divisions now employ data analysts to make sense of this information. Manchester City has 11 of them. In 2012 Liverpool caused a stir by creating a new position director of research for Ian Graham who has a PhD in theoretical physics. The analysts are involved in prematch preparation and postgame debriefs they help to identify transfer targets and devise strategies for nurturing young players through the ranks. These developments have inspired confusion and even suspicion from many supporters summed up by a recent headline in the emNew Statesmanem a hrefhttpwww.newstatesman.comculture201306howspreadsheetwieldinggeeksaretakingoverfootball titleHow the spreadsheetwielding geeks are taking over football.appWe cant be blamed for being perplexed. Take the match last month between Arsenal and Bayern Munich which Bayern won 20. The following morning the emGuardianem plucked out two statistics a hrefhttpwww.theguardian.comfootballblog2014feb20tonikroosbayernmunichprofile titleToni Kroosa the German midfielder completed more passes than the entire Arsenal midfield meanwhile Arsenals Mesut zil covered 11.69km the thirdhighest distance on the pitch. What the stats didnt say but was blindingly obvious to anyone watching was that Kroos was sensational and zil had a stinker.ppThese are simplistic examples but they encapsulate a debate taking place at the highest levels of many football clubs. In one corner are the quants or quantitative analysts they are admirers of the statistician and electionoracle Nate Silver the Nobel prizewinning psychologist Daniel Kahneman and especially Billy Beane the star of emMoneyballem Michael Lewiss 2003 book about the data revolution in baseball. They believe that a football match can be translated into numbers and much as a hedgefund trader does with the stock market those figures can be crunched and scanned for patterns. They dont think intuition should be removed from the game but they have found that statistics are dispassionate in a way that humans never are.ppAs Beane general manager of the Oakland Ashas said The idea that I should trust my eyes more than the stats I dont buy that because Ive seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know that the rabbits not in there.ppIn the other corner are the traditionalists which is to say the owners and managers of the overwhelming majority of professional football clubs. They are aware of emMoneyballem at least the film starring Brad Pitt but dont believe the lessons of a stopstart sport such as baseball can be applied to the fluid dynamics of a football match. Most managers once played the game themselves at a high level and it is this fact they contend that gives them a special insight into what happens on the pitch and which players they recruit. This approach is summed up by an anecdote about Harry Redknapp reported in emWiredem magazine. When he was manager of Southampton he turned to his analyst after a loss and said Ill tell you what next week why dont we get your computer to play against their computer and see who winsppIt turns out that Redknapp was not too wide of the mark how long will it be before we look at football not just as a contest between 22 players or a clash between two managers but as a battle between the respective brains trusts assembled on the two benchesppstrongAstrong decent place to start the investigation is Everton FC. As Simon Kuper the emFinancial Timesem columnist and coauthor of emSoccernomicsem has detailed no club in the Premier League has so consistently overachieved during the past decade. Under Moyes they finished eighth or higher every season from 2007 to 2013. Theyve managed this despite being more frugal with wages than all of their rivals and not splashing cash on bigname transfers. Instead they achieved success by developing brilliant homegrown talent Wayne Rooney Jack Rodwell and Ross Barkley among them and melding these players with unheralded stalwarts such as Leighton Baines and Leon Osman who just happen to be statistical outliers.ppBaines in fact is something of an emblem for the data revolutionaries. For years he was a solid dependable leftback with an anachronistic moptop a perennial understudy to the flashier Ashley Cole in the England team. The stats however told a different story in 2012 Opta identified Baines as the a hrefhttpeplindex.com22172bainesleadscomparisoneuropescreators.html titleplayer who created the most chances in all of Europes top leaguesa. His crosses which were 38 accurate led to a goalscoring opportunity every 21.6 minutes figures that shamed betterknown playmakers such as Manchester Citys David Silva and Arsenals Santi Cazorla. Before long Baines was first choice for the national team and a transfer target for Manchester United of course though perhaps he was simply playing better and the data per se had nothing to do with it.ppWith such an impressive record over the years its hardly surprising that Moyes wanted to recreate the structure at Manchester United. Everton meanwhile installed Wigan Athletics Roberto Martnez as their new manager. Martnez had his own reputation for performing above expectations Wigan had been favourites for relegation from the Premier League every year since they were promoted in 2005 the club consistently had the lowest turnover and attendances in the top flight their training ground was a converted workingmens club. Somehow they survived until last May anyway though they had the consolation of defeating Manchester City to win the FA Cup.ppMuch of Wigans resilience was put down to their progressive young manager. Martnez was known for being obsessive about tactics. a hrefhttpwww.theguardian.combooks2013may24numbersgameeverythingfootballwrong titleemThe Numbers Gameema a recent book that examines the datafication of football noted that he installed a 60inch pentouch TV screen at his home and hooked it up with playertracking software from the performance analysts a hrefhttpwww.prozonesports.comindex.html titleProzonea. He would watch matches especially defeats up to 10 times in order to make sense of what had happened. His response was often unusual and creative while most teams favour the standard 442 formation Wigan under Martnez would shuffle between 433 or 343 or 4231. In short he seemed like the perfect fit for a forwardthinking club like Everton.ppI meet Martnez at Finch Farm Evertons training ground on the outskirts of Liverpool. The facility is typically described as state of the art but it is still a place where a tea lady will come round to offer you a cuppa and probably a biscuit if you ask politely too. Martnez is flanked by two of his scouting team Kevin Reeves and Steve Brown and we all sit in Reevess office. Theres an iMac on the desk but it is devoid of personal effects and whiffs of fresh paint it turns out the room used to belong to James Smith until he moved to Manchester United and Reeves is just settling in. Reeves was once the most expensive player in Britain the first 1.25 million man back in 1980 he proudly notes and he has followed Martnez from Wigan.ppThey have just come in from training. How much data do they collect in preparation for matches Every step on a football pitch is measured now says Martnez in his unique SpanishLancastrian lilt. We monitor each session with GPS and heartrate profiles. From a physical point of view the most significant stats are probably the number of sprints the sprint distance and the amount of highintensity efforts a player gets through. We look at these through the season and they give us a good indication of how fatigued a player is and the recovery he needs.ppAt Everton each player is tracked in terms of four corners technical tactical physical and psychological. Data is crucial for assessing the first three categories. On a very basic level a company such as Opta or Prozone provides multicamera footage of a players actions during a match and coaches critique his performance perhaps they would like him to play more short passes or a signature of Martnezs teams retain possession more assiduously. Detailed feedback will start in some clubs from the undernines upwards. Youve got so many facilities to look at an individuals performances and you can single out one aspect of his play and measure it thats significant he says. Thats unbelievable. Meanwhile a pair of analysts will be preparing dossiers on the Everton first teams forthcoming fixtures watching half a dozen of their opponents previous matches and combining these findings with existing data from Prozone. On the recruitment side Reeves and Brown liaise with 10 scouts across Europe who work exclusively for Everton and keep an eye on the ProScout7 database which has profiles on almost 130000 players in more than 130 countries.ppMartnez is just as bright and convivial as everyone tells you he is but he cant hide his deep ambivalence towards say ballretention percentages or the number of successful passes into the oppositions penalty box. Or to put it another way he thinks most statistics are useless. Theres a big danger of getting inundated with data and letting it affect your play he says. Remember a player can have 10 shots and all of them are on target but he doesnt score a goal. Or he can have 10 shots and nine of them are off target but then the last one goes in the top corner. So which stat do you preferppMartnez is not the first to make this point and in one sense he is making a distinction between stats and metrics statistics on their own are often meaningless but through systematic analysis they can become metrics which might offer a more revealing measure of a player or a teams performance. Still it is a surprise to hear Martnez taking this line. Aged 40 with a postgraduate diploma in business and marketing from Manchester University attained while he was a player at Wigan you might expect him to be a passionate advocate for analytics. emThe Numbers Gameem describes Martnez as a hero and its authors Chris Anderson and David Sally devote a chapter to his work as Wigan manager which they approvingly call Guerrilla Football.ppThe Everton manager is especially scathing of using data to identify transfer targets the emMoneyballem dream of unearthing players whose utility might not always be immediately obvious. There is the famous story of Arsene Wenger signing Mathieu Flamini the first time partly due to a statistic that showed he ran 14km a match. Or Liverpool under their thendirector of football Damien Comolli who spent heavily in 2011 to acquire Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing ostensibly because their finalthird regain percentages how often they recovered possession in the opponents penalty box were so high.ppMartnez and his chief scouts Reeves and Brown find the suggestion that they would buy a player because of their numbers pretty funny. You need to see a player and fall in love with a player says Martnez. When you see a player youll watch his warmup the way he speaks to the referee the way he speaks to other teammates after missing a chance the way he celebrates a goal the way his teammates react when he scores. Data might help you narrow the margin of error but the decision is still a feeling. Its a gut instinct.ppIt is the psychology of a player that Martnez believes is the most crucial aspect of whether a player flourishes or wanes. And it is here that statistics or metrics are most restricted and unreliable. Everton will always scan news reports on a prospective signing and speak to their contacts for character references some clubs will trawl through a players Twitter feed and Facebook page but ultimately the final decision is always an informed gamble. How will a player respond to taking a penalty in the 93rd minute of a Merseyside derby in front of the Kop at Anfield What happens when your new foreign superstar arrives and struggles to learn English and his wife wants to go home Football players are football players once a week warns Martnez. The rest of the time they are human beings and fathers and husbands data doesnt give you that.ppstrongWstronghile no one contends that the use of data in football will ever be flawless it certainly continues to become more astute and ambitious. The father of the movement is wing commander Charles Reep an accountant in the RAF who codified his first match in March 1950. He would eventually detail and analyse 2200 games until the mid1990s spending around 80 hours on a single match sometimes writing on rolls of wallpaper. Another pioneer was Valeriy Lobanovskyi celebrated coach of Dynamo Kyiv and the USSR from the 1970s through to 2002 who spotted the potential of computers to change football when processors were still the size of the team bus. Known for his fastidious match preparations and scientific scouting he said A team that commits errors in no more than 15 to 18 of its actions is unbeatable.ppThe work of Reep and Lobanovskyi inspired a man you might not expect Sam Allardyce now manager of West Ham United. As a player Allardyce spent the 1983 season with the Tampa Bay Rowdies in Florida he made only 11 appearances but the team shared its training facilities with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL squad and he was intrigued by their preparations and that sports infatuation with statistics. When he became a manager in the early 1990s he wondered if he might introduce a similar model but first he had to wait for the technology to catch up with him.ppOpta was the creation of a group of management consultants their first clients in 1996 for their football statistics were Sky Sports and take a bow the emObserverem. Soon they were joined in the market by Prozone a company that began life as a purveyor of massage armchairs. Those black chairs you see in motorway service stations that you put 1 in says Paul Boanas Prozones senior account manager. Early interest in Prozone came from another unlikely innovator Steve McLaren then a coach at Derby County. He liked the chairs but the players got bored sitting in them for 15 minutes after every training session. He asked Couldnt they watch videos of the game while theyre doing itppMcLaren who would move on to coach Manchester United and then manage England and Allardyce who by this time was manager of Bolton Wanderers would become Prozones earliest and most devoted customers. For Big Sam in particular the new software was addictive he hired a team of young sportsscience graduates and used the video analysis to mould Boltons style of play. They calculated that any team that ran further and faster than their opponents would win or draw 80 of their matches. Their players relentlessly practised throwins corners and freekicks targeting pomos or positions of maximum opportunity and scored around half their goals far above the league average from these setpieces. Allardyce stitched together a team of misfits oldtimers and foreign mercenaries led by Gary Speed. When he arrived on a free transfer in 2004 Speed was 35 but his stats 12km a game a passcompletion average of above 80 suggested he could still be useful. He became a talisman for Bolton for the next four seasons.ppBig Sams Bolton defied logic they finished in the top eight of the Premier League every season between 2003 and 2007 and twice qualified for the Uefa Cup. But pomos did not enter the lexicon of the data revolution and many of his ideas now seem outdated.ppAllardyce remains committed to metrics but his greatest contribution to the movement might just be the people he inspired. Bolton alumni now head the analytics departments of the most ambitious clubs in world football Ed Sulley is head of performance analysis at Manchester City while Gavin Fleig is Citys head of technical scouting Dave Fallows is head of recruitment at Liverpool. These men could be just as influential in shaping the future of their clubs as the managers Manuel Pellegrini and Brendan Rodgers.ppThere is a clear shift of power taking place at some clubs and the use of data analytics is at the heart of it. At a time when the average tenure of a Premier League manager is just over one year a hrefhttpwww.bbc.co.uksport0football25198582 titleseven have already been sacked this seasona the idea of entrusting all elements of player recruitment and longterm strategy to the manager is anachronistic. That certainly seems to have been the conclusion of the owners at Manchester City and Liverpool as well as a club such as West Bromwich Albion which shares power between the manager and a director of football or sporting and technical director as they now call the position.ppThe perfect model in the clubs eyes is to have everything set up and just drop in the manager and hes only allowed to bring two members of staff with him thats what clubs would like says Prozones Boanas. When the average lifespan of a manager is so short theyre going to think Why would I plan for the future when I might be gone in six months Bollocks to that Instead of signing a young player theyre going to bring in a 31yearold whos got a proven record who theyve worked with before. Its a very shortterm view.ppChris Anderson author of emThe Numbers Gameem and a political scientist at New Yorks Cornell University agrees. Incentives are incredibly important he says. The right incentives in my mind are the ones that keep this club healthy beyond next Saturday and perhaps beyond this month and even beyond this season. The place where a manager has a long tenure like David Moyes at Everton and Arsene Wenger at Arsenal that persons incentives for themselves and for the club are reasonably closely aligned. But the world we live in sometimes that person isnt the manager. At a certain point however Allardyces Bolton proteges the men now driving the use of data analytics in British football hit a wall they were sports scientists not mathematicians. This frustration waseloquently expressed by James Smith then still at Everton at the Elite Minds in Sports Analytics Summit held at Arsenals Emirates stadium last November. It can be a lonely business being a quant in a football club and the threeday seminar with presentations by everyone from YouTube to the performance director of a hrefhttpwww.bobteamgb.org titleBritish Bobsleigha fell somewhere between a showandtell and a selfhelp meeting.ppAt Everton at the moment were still very much in a world of GCSE maths Smith said. Cue an intake of breath in the room and much frenzied tapping on laptops. We look at averages we look at benchmarking we are in the world of bar charts. At the moment we are not doing more sophisticated regression analysis a statistical process used for predicting future outcomes but we know that is probably the way forward and thats where we hope to be before too long. But at the moment that tends to be the bigger clubs the betterresourced clubs really.ppSmith contrasts football unfavourably with American sports notably baseball and NFL. Typically the guy dealing with the data in an English football club at the moment is a sports science graduate which I am he said. But very often in America you might have somebody who went to Harvard and did a law degree then did a computer science masters at MIT. One of the issues in English football is we dont spend enough on staff quality or quantity. And thats partly because we spend so much money on transfer fees player salaries agents fees that theres not enough left. Its crazy.ppstrongTstronghere are in fact some whipsmart mathematicians working in English football but because of the traditional approach of most clubs they are more likely to be employed by a betting company or a data generator such as Prozone. In an attempt to address this disparity a fascinating initiative was launched by Manchester Citys Gavin Fleig in August 2012. Called MCFC Analytics the club released a large archive of data collected by Opta from the 201112 season. It was an open source call to arms for bloggers PhD academics anyone with an inquisitive mind and an interest in football who wanted to mess around with numbers.ppThe inspiration for the experiment was baseball specifically Bill James a janitor whose afterhours statistical analysis revolutionised that sport. I want our industry to find a Bill James Fleig told Simon Kuper. Bill James needs data and whoever the Bill James of football is he doesnt have data because it costs money.ppMCFC Analytics ended after a year and its hard to determine if it was a success or not. The interest was certainly there more than 1500 users accessed the information in the first 36 hours but there was criticism of the basic dataset that was released. Dr Howard Hamilton chief executive of an Atlantabased consultancy firm a hrefhttpwww.soccermetrics.net titleSoccermetrics Researcha who holds a PhD in aeronautics and astronautics from Stanford University described it in a blog as woefully inadequate.ppIt wasnt our deepest dataset by any means but it was relatively deep says John Coulson head of professional football services at Opta. Nevertheless Coulson cant see the experiment being repeated in the near future It was a oneoff thing Heres something to have a go at get your teeth stuck in. But its not sustainable for us as a business to release all of that data every year.ppFootball clubs are intensely secretive about the specifics of their use of data especially where they believe they might have a competitive advantage. So I ask Marcus du Sautoy professor of mathematics at Oxford University and keen Arsenal fan what impact a greater numerical literacy could have on the game. Football is much more of a game of chess than people realise he replies. It isnt random what each team does from one game to the next. There are patterns. And the strength of mathematics is to change an activity into numbers and to spot patterns and predict things into the future. Thats essentially what the hedgefund guys are doing.ppDu Sautoy believes we should look at the football pitch as a network with channels connecting the 11 players Its like a miniinternet he exclaims. A successful team Barcelona are the perfect example has a special ability for keeping these connections open but theres no reason why all teams could not analyse the dynamics in a more theoretical way. Du Sautoy also thinks that coaches would benefit from a greater willingness to think outside the box so to speak. He uses the example of a free kick why does the defending team always line up with a wall in front of the kicker Perhaps that is the most effective way of blocking the ball but they could test the hypothesis more methodically.ppFootball is incredibly conservative says du Sautoy. Having people who come from a different mindset could actually give a team like Arsenal or Liverpool a real edge. Then at least halfseriously he ventures If Wenger wants a mathematician on the bench at Arsenal Id be very happy to come along.ppstrongIstrongt is easy to become carried away with the possibilities of data analytics. At the Elite Minds in Sports Analytics Summit another speaker was Brian Prestidge head of analytic development at Bolton Wanderers. He revealed that since their goalkeeper had started studying the stats on the opposing teams penalty taker he was actually saving emfewerem penalties just 9 in the last two seasons. We took away the human element the players instinct said Prestidge. But thats not to say there are no advantages in analysis.ppIf data is to have a greater influence in how football teams are run it is likely to be at the instigation of the club owners such as Liverpools John W Henry who made his fortune on the stock market and whose other team is the emMoneyballeminspired Boston Red Sox rather than the managers. Players too might also demand it at the Elite Minds summit Ben Smith head of development performance systems at Chelsea explained that young players such as Eden Hazard had grown up with data and constant feedback and now expect it after every match and training session this contrasted with the older generation who can often be more entrenched.ppOf course a manager will never admit that a numbercruncher might do his job just as well or heretically even better than he can. And if a manager is doing something sophisticated or analytical he wont want to advertise that to the world says Anderson.It makes them look less good and it makes them look geeky too says Anderson. In this manly world of football you dont want to be known as a pinhead. Thats the worst of everythingppAnderson recently floated the idea that a Premier League club could reduce its squad from 25 players to 24 and use the savings to employ a handful of maths graduates who would doubtless earn less in a year than some players are paid for a week. No one seriously expects any club to take up the suggestion. At Finch Farm I ask Martnez if he is envious of Manchester Citys 11 analysts working behind the scenes to plot their next opponents downfall.ppHe shakes his head. I dont start with 100 people and say How are they going to help me win a football game Doesnt matter if you have 100 or 3000 people. It can dilute the quality. We are in a position where weve got enough to do everything we want. I dont think we feel frustrated or we need to get more finances. No I think we are very much efficient.ppFootball is a game of passion and part of every fan would die if the game were reduced to a soulless set of calculations. But equally any club or manager that denies the power of data are placing themselves at an enormous disadvantage. In one sense this could be a positive development football has historically been dominated by the teams with the fattest wallets in the age of analytics clubs should be rewarded for innovating and there is a greater motivation for cashstrapped teams to lead the way. Brains can trump financial brawn. Though it should be noted that right now Manchester City are leading the field in both categories.ppSitting in the stands fans will likely stay at least partially in the dark. When a substitute comes on and scores with his first touch do you credit the genius of the manager or the calculations of his performance analysts In the moment particularly if youre a Manchester United fan youll probably be too ecstatic to care.ppWith the World Cup just three months away England manager Roy Hodgson is putting the finishing touches to his squad. But what if he were to select his players by data alone As you can see from the squads below the Premier League players rated most productive over the last 18 months by match analyser Prozone are very different from those actually picked by Hodgson. 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