We return with our PGA Tour golf betting blog with our preview and golf betting tips for the Safeway Open in Napa, California. Can Brendan steal the safe? With more excuses from a missing Tiger this week, will Phil be providing the thrills, or is a Web.com grad going to storm out the blocks?
WHERE ARE WE THIS WEEK?
Silverado Resort and Spa is the host again this week where Argentine Emiliano Grillo looks to defend his maiden tour title he won last year in a playoff victory over Kevin N/A.
Length: 7,203 yards
Par: 72
Designer: Robert Trent Jones Jr
Grass: Bentgrass
WHAT WILL BE IN THE WINNER’S BAG?
Silverado has narrow fairways and fairly small greens. With plenty of undulation it has a tendency to look dry. It is the kind of course made for pure iron shots, with opportunities to run the ball into greens.
So perhaps it’s not surprising that Grillo managed to win here last year. Grillo is one of the best strikers of the ball on tour – which you’ll know, if you managed to catch him warming up on the range at the Open at Troon in July this year.
The course has the look and feel of courses in Las Vegas when the sprinklers pack up for a day. Or in Texas where the wind can quickly dry out greens and fairways. Look for players who have fared well in tour events in Vegas and Texas.
FIELD NOTES
Tiger Woods’ late withdrawal leaves Phil Mickelson as the leading man this week. Will he continue his good Ryder Cup form? (but the question must be ‘can he hit enough fairways to put himself in contention?’)
Three of the OWGR Top 20 are teeing it up among the vines of Nap: Paul Casey (12th), Phil Mickelson (15th) and Matt Kuchar (17th) are present, although other highly ranked players include Emiliano Grillo (24th) and Justin Thomas (34th).
Also appearing are a number of highly fancied rookies including Grayson Murray – winner of the Web.com finals and Jon Rahm former world number one amateur.
HORSES FOR COURSES & WHO’S GOT PREVIOUS?
Clearly a player that loved the conditions here was the Argentine, Emiliano Grillo, who belted out a four round total of 15-under to beat Kevin N/A in a playoff last year. Then there is Brendan Steele who has finished T21, T17 on his last two visits here.
4 BETTING PICKS FOR THE SAFEWAY OPEN
Emiliano Grillo – In lieu of any other convincing information, always go for the defending champion is an adage I just made up. The factors that draw me to this conclusion is the form that took Grillo all the way to the Tour Championship in Atlanta last month and a final finish of 11th in the FedExCup Rankings – lifting him to 24th in the OWGR. Those results include two Top 10s in the four FedExCup playoff events; a T2 at the Barclays; and T10 at the Tour Championship (this on top of a T8 at the Olympics). This is a huge improvement from the wavering form between his victory last October and the Playoffs where he couldn’t even muster a solitary Top 10!
Smylie Kaufman – Conditions at Silverado are similar to those he experienced in Las Vegas when winning at TPC Summerlin. With a win already under his professional belt, I like where his game is at. He finished T10 last year on debut. His ball striking was immaculate early last season, and while tailing off he still supplemented a bagful of missed cuts with some good finishes in some high class field events. Rested up and back on the West coast, expect Smylie to start the season with a bang.
Phil Mickelson – While his driving is as wayward as anything you’ll see from my own lefty attempts off the tee, no one can catch him when he likes the greens. With a weather forecast that hints of rain and a course not particularly long by PGA Tour standards, I quite like Mickelson at odds of 20/1.
Brendan Steele – With two top 25s in the two visits to Silverado, he is an obvious pick. There’s a consistency to Steele’s game which usually result in a big collection of Top 20s and a couple of Top 10s every season. Of the 25 times he made a cut he posted a Top 25 in 11. Now if he can start converting those good finishes, he might well be a player to break into the Top 50 in the world Rankings this year.
MISSED CUT
Paul Casey is hoping to continue the form that posted three straight Top 5s in the playoffs last month and Justin Thomas seems to have caught the eye of many. Kevin N/A will have his backers here once again, but probably, like me, more detractors.
RECOMMENDED STAKING PLAN:
Emiliano Grillo 20/1 [2 points TO WIN]
Phil Mickelson 20/1 [2 point EACH WAY]
Brendan Steele 50/1 [1 point EACH WAY]
Smylie Kaufman 66/1 [1 point EACH WAY]
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