Welcome to Festival Outlook, a supplemental column that will provide more in-depth analysis for the rumors found on Consequence of Sound’s sister-site-of-the-same-name. In this installment, Michael Roffman, Alex Young, Philip Cosores, Danielle Janota, and Carson O’Shoney place their bets on this year’s lineup for Coachella.
Michael Roffman (MR): Another year, another season of hype — of course, we have to start at Coachella. The two-weekend event continues to lead the Big Four of music festivals every April, and this year proves rather frustrating with regards to speculation. A year ago, we all had U2 on our minds — especially after alleged stories of Bono and co. expressing interest — but now that seems unlikely given their world tour and we’re left, once again, to a mountain of rumors.
So, what do we think seems likely at this point? Is Jack White a lock? Will the Foo Fighters finally make their way to Indio, CA? What about Coldplay? Better yet, will there be any surprises: Could Goldenvoice do the unthinkable and actually book Daft Punk? Or Avalanches? The Kinks? Forgive me for thinking big and rare, but that’s what this discussion is all about. Well, that and the pursuit of some tangible truths.
What do you think, folks?
Photo by David Brendan Hall
Alex Young (AY): It’s long rumored that Drake and Jack White will be two of this year’s headliners, which certainly makes sense: Drake, albeit still a relatively new artist by headlining standards, continues Coachella’s recent trend of reserving one closing spot for hip-hop (Kanye, Jay Z, Dr. Dre, and OutKast have all played in recent years). Jack White, meanwhile, is probably the most exciting rock headliner going and hasn’t visited Indio since 2010 when he was touring with The Dead Weather. He also presumably serves as the “KROQ-friendly rock headliner.”
The other popular name has been AC/DC, but I just have a hard time seeing it. More than any other festival, Coachella exudes “cool,” and that’s not necessarily the first word that comes to mind when describing the Australian rockers.
I wonder if Mumford and Sons might be that third headliner … they previously played Coachella in 2011 and certainly have a wide mainstream appeal a la previous headliners like Red Hot Chili Peppers and The Killers. Also don’t count out Coldplay, who will be returning on the road this year. As for a wildcard possibility: Prince?
Philip Cosores (PC): I’ve seen that headlining combo a lot (AC/DC, Coldplay, Jack White, Drake) and think with all four it isn’t so bad. I think Pearl Jam is another one I’ve seen thrown out as a possibility recently, and they’d also fold into that nicely. I guess unless you get someone like The Rolling Stones or Alex’s Prince, you need to get four names on the top to make it not seem like a lazy group of headliners. I suppose we are still a year out from Kendrick headlining, especially after he was announced to headline the Air & Style festival in February.
Carson O’Shoney (CO): I wonder if this is the year they get a pure pop act to headline. We’ve already seen Lady Gaga headline Lollapalooza, but it never really took off as a trend across other major festivals. Coachella has long been welcoming of these types – there was Madonna’s short set in 2006 and more recently Beyoncé dancing alongside sister Solange and Justin Bieber performing with Chance the Rapper in 2014. However, they’ve never gone as far as to book a pop star in a major headlining slot. There aren’t many artists who could pull it off – I can count on one hand the number of stars who even have a remote chance of headlining. But those few make for some interesting ideas.
While she’s become more respected in “indie” circles — not to mention being rumored to headline Glastonbury — Taylor Swift still seems too divisive among a typical Coachella crowd for now. Plus her upcoming five-night stand at the Staples Center counts her out anyway. On the other hand, Justin Timberlake is appreciated enough in all circles that I believe he would go over extremely well at Coachella – plus his world tour just wrapped last week. Could he put a cherry on top of his 20/20 Experience touring cycle with a couple headlining sets? Beyoncé’s latest self-titled effort is still conquering the world, and with her and hubby Jay Z’s On the Run tour finished, she has no dates on the books. Her Glastonbury headlining performance was a hit; could she do a one-off stateside?
And speaking of Madonna, she’s recently been active again for the first time in a few years, releasing tracks from her upcoming Rebel Heart. Could she return, this time for a legit, full-headlining set? This year’s Super Bowl halftime performer, Katy Perry, might be the only other pop star I can imagine one day taking the Coachella stage, but for now she’s in the Taylor Swift category for me – the crowd just isn’t ready for that yet. Either way, I think it would be an exciting thing to have one of these types as a headliner.
Danielle Janota (DJ): As fondly as I remember Gaga’s 2010 Lolla show and felt that it mixed up the fest quite nicely, I doubt Coachella will go that route given its pretty solid history of rock and, recently, rap headliners. The only pop headliner I could fathom is Beyoncé, given her appeal to both mainstream and, dare I say, high-brow audiences.
Might I also suggest Björk, who last played Coachella in 2007. As polarizing as she may be, she’s the only female headliner the fest has seen in its 15 years. Not to mention, she plans to release an album in 2015.
As for Jack White, I think he’s a given. Several have pointed out that Coachella’s lineup mirrored Lolla Brazil’s last year, and Jack White is booked for Lolla Brazil in 2015. On that note, if Lolla Brazil is any indication for other headliners, Robert Plant could be a possibility.
MR: I’m still surprised Beyoncé wasn’t at any of the major festivals last year. It seemed like a given, but maybe her asking price is too high? (How much did Gaddafi’s son have to pay? Two million? Oh well.) Though, one name nobody’s mentioned so far is Bey’s pal and fellow rival Rihanna. Her guest appearance during Eminem’s set last year ignited a fire in the crowd for a good 15 minutes — something she didn’t repeat for Austin City Limits, mind you — and with a new LP on the way, she could easily sell the majority of the festival tickets this year.
Yet so could Taylor Swift. I don’t know if I’d agree that Coachella isn’t ready for Taylor Swift, especially after her last two albums have eschewed the pop-country label. Her music is played everywhere now. Everywhere. She’s also the rare pop performer who doesn’t require too many toys on stage, meaning her stage setup wouldn’t need a Gaga-esque makeover. A smart move for any festival is to throw big money at Big Machine, book Swift, and leave the rest of the weekend to mid-tier flare.
Photo by Ben Kaye
Which, in all honesty, would do quite well. One thing we debated heavily last year was the need for veteran headliners. I’m of the camp that don’t believe we do. I think Lorde or Vampire Weekend or HAIM or Chance the Rapper could have easily headlined the main stages at Lollapalooza or Coachella, as they all attracted far more people than, say, Kings of Leon, The Killers, or Muse. The problem is that there’s still this age-old belief that the bigger the name, the more tickets you’ll sell.
True, but one big name and several popular acts given a chance to headline can do the job. If not, then where were all the ticketholders around eight o’ clock last year when Pearl Jam or OutKast hit the stage at Lollapalooza or Austin City Limits? Of course they drew crowds, but they were hardly as rabid, expansive, and young as those who swarmed the same stages for Childish Gambino, Lorde, or Lana Del Rey earlier in the evening. The same applied to Sam Smith and Iggy Azalea last year. Anyone else see this?
Photo by Cathy Poulton
PC: I think this is very true and extends to, like, Gotye and 2 Chains in years past, too. Or Pharrell last year. Who will hold those spots this year? Gambino makes sense. Sam Smith and Azalea already have arena dates announced locally, though. Hozier makes sense for this kind of role. Maybe someone like ILoveMakonnen. And let’s not forget the real headliner of Coachella 2014, Calvin Harris. I’m sure there will be more of that mass appeal EDM for the main stage this year.
But I’m interested most in the “gets.” With Sleater-Kinney all but ruled out, I’m banking on acts like Ride, Swans, and Ryan Adams giving me a special occasion or an unlikely booking to have me look forward to April. Pair them with virtual locks like alt-J, St. Vincent, The War on Drugs, Father John Misty, Flying Lotus, and Belle and Sebastian, and that’s enough to be stoked for Chella, regardless of headliners. Who else do we see Coachella booking who maybe haven’t played the festival in a while or will be reuniting?
AY: Sub-headliners are tough, because as Phil points out, Coachella seems more inclined to give second line love to acts like Iggy Azalea and Calvin Harris over a Sleater-Kinney reunion or Belle and Sebastian. That said, there are a few names that come to mind: Frank Ocean, My Morning Jacket, Robyn & Röyksopp (the latter of which is playing Ultra a month earlier), The xx, and D’Angelo.
As for “gets”? Does Marilyn Manson count? I was surprised to see his name so heavily rumored, but maybe Coachella is going for the Holy Grail and also booking Smashing Pumpkins and Hole. If GoldenVoice can somehow swing Aphex Twin or Boards of Canada, that’d be great. But I think the likelihood of the festival booking niche acts is becoming more and more rare, especially after Pavement’s less-than-impressive audience turnout.
Photo by Nina Corcoran
If we could go back to Kendrick Lamar for a second … He hasn’t performed since 2012 and is close to being on the same echelon as Drake. What if Coachella threw us a curveball and booked Kendrick and Drake to co-headline a night? They did it before with Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg, and I could see them really playing off each other. What better way to set your festival apart by booking two of hip-hop’s hottest MCs for a unique one-off collaboration?
DJ: Oh man, Kendrick and Drake would be a booking for the ages. Given their very public beef, that show would be incredible. However, even if Kendrick was available, I’m not sure he would agree to it. After all, the Kendrick-Drake battle is the most interesting controversy hip-hop has seen for a while. Booking them as co-headliners might seem like they’re amicably ending the fight, which would be foolish on both of their parts.
Photo by Heather Kaplan
PC: With Kendrick, I just think his headlining of Air and Style, the Shaun White extreme sports festival at the Rose Bowl in February, puts him out of the running. But yeah, D’Angelo, Frank Ocean, MMJ, Wilco, Aphex Twin — these would all look great on the lineup. I feel like Iggy Azalea (or Ariana Grande) will only appear as special guests, though, because of their previously announced arena dates.
To go back to the niche argument, I don’t agree with Alex. Sure, Pavement got a bad turnout, but that happens every year to tons of bands. Did The Knife get a big turnout last year? Or Neutral Milk Hotel? What about The Stone Roses the year before? I think Coachella is committed to putting out a lineup that Paul Tollett wants to represent the festival, and even if that means more Calvin Harris types or Lana Del Reys, it also means there will always be a home for the Aphex Twins and Boards of Canadas. That’s my opinion.
But yeah, Coachella seems to really value the moment these days. Getting the unbilled guest star. Last year’s Pharrell set relied on it completely. Maybe that is where a lot of the money is going, for flight and appearance fees for a Justin Bieber.
DJ: What about The Prodigy? They last played the festival in 2005 and still make rounds at European fests. I think they could slay the way The Chemical Brothers did on the Coachella stage in 2011. Speaking of which, a major genre that we’ve only brushed upon is EDM. And while many consider big EDM acts as a necessary evil to the major fests, perhaps they should still be discussed. Any thoughts or cares on who Coachella might book this year? I could see Avicii, who has played the fest in the past but could get moved to a bigger stage. Jack U is also very possible. Booking an act consisting of EDM’s two biggest powerhouses is basically a no-brainer.
Photo by Philip Cosores
MR: Based on Ultra’s initial lineup, it would appear that Skrillex, Tiësto, Armin Van Buuren, and, as you pointed out, Danielle, Avicii, all remain hot contenders despite their myriad appearances over the past year. And really, any one of those names are the obvious go-tos right now, which is sort of the problem today. Now, if you asked me last January, I probably would have argued that EDM could sell a festival, but there are so many clones opting for that approach that it’s hard to distinguish one lineup from the next. That’s one problem Tollett and Goldenvoice seem steadfast in avoiding.
Philip, I think you’re right about the guests. For a festival that continues to capitalize on the star power of its Hollywood neighborhood, the idea that they’d go after more and more surprise cameos seems like a given — it’s also pretty smart. The news spreads fast through socials and publications, which only further cements Coachella as a destination where anything can happen. Drake, Rihanna, Coldplay, and Jack White are all capable of pulling off such stunts; what’s more, they’re also powerful enough to move tickets.
Still, I like to indulge in a little wishful thinking around this time of the year, and I still want to believe that we’ll see a surprise addition. I keep going back to one name: The Kinks. Am I crazy? Would that be better for Bonnaroo? Is Ray Davies too old for a festival?
CO: Stylistically, I do think the Kinks fit Bonnaroo a bit better. They would be a perfect headliner on the farm. However, Coachella has a knack for nabbing the big reunions before anyone else, like Rage Against the Machine, or exclusively, like the Stone Roses/Blur. Either way, Davies is in no way too old to headline – plenty of AARP members are still topping lineups around the world: Paul McCartney, Elton John, Neil Young, etc. Whether his health holds up or not is a different story, but a Kinks reunion would be relevant even to the younger generations if recent Wes Anderson soundtracks hold any weight (they do).
I still think the Rolling Stones are in play here. It sounds unlikely, but they’ve headlined festivals overseas, so we know they’re not completely opposed to the idea. Plus, Tollett and co. have proven that money is no object for someone they really want – at least if the Smiths rumors are true. The Stones are the holy grail of US festival bookings at this point (Led Zeppelin Bonnaroo rumors notwithstanding) – it will be an enormous get if they can make it happen. The real question is if it would be worth the assumed ridiculous amount of money it would take. Going back to our earlier point, that money might be better spent on smaller, more buzzy bands that could each sell tickets on their own. In such a youth-dominated market, the Stones (or other similar gigantic dinosaur bands) might not be the best investment.
AY: I feel like we’ve been talking about a Kinks reunion for a decade now, and every time we get our hopes up, it’s all for naught. Honestly, at this point I think we’re far more likely to see Bowie play (and that’s not very likely at all).
The Rolling Stones are intriguing and may explain the AC/DC rumors. Perhaps the latter act is a fallback in the event the former doesn’t work out? While Coachella would no doubt be a major pay day for the Stones, I don’t think money is the primary reason they’d play. More important is the prestige of the festival: if the Stones were to headline, it could solidify the band’s legacy into a sixth decade.
I honestly don’t know what to expect from this year’s lineup: for all we know, many of the aforementioned acts could be a smokescreen for something much more exciting. Which makes this year’s lineup announcement as anticipated as any in recent memory.
PC: God, I hope so. Seems like lately, Coachella begins with us hoping for something insane and being disappointed come lineup release because it is generally what we thought it would be. I guess the important thing is that we usually end up pretty happy after seeing the actual festival.
MR: You booked the condo, right? Right?
Stay tuned for the official lineup. We’ll have it to you the second it drops. In the meantime, who do you think will be sweatin’ around Indio, CA come April?